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it is baked into the share price. HL operations are tough to tune but eventually they get there unless the metallurgy is all wrong. They have one of the best operations in the world helping them get it right so they should eventually get there.
I think the share price is telling us that this is a one time quarter porblem but I am not willing to take that chance. Many other gold juniors just as undervalued that don't have a bad qtr hanging over their heads. I'll be back later after we know more and the qtr is behind us.
JFF7
Cyanide shortage for the heap leach process? Tuning problems? (takes time to get the chemical mixture right).
whatever the reason. I am out until they can show consistency in production and can match actual production to forecast production (within reason at least).
Probably just a temporary thing.
JFF7
It's true, they could start a PRO league of Kick the Can with all the skill and talent they have built up with this game. In the end though, there will be more money printing.
JFF7
The choices for Europe are more like
1. Print and then default and then print some more
2. Default and then print.
But there is no way around eventual default and printing
JFF7
Added to my position today. I guess I have moved from trader to investor as I start my accumulation phase.
JFF7
do you really think oil prices follow inventory levels?
what about speculation impacts due to strengthening dollar?
Or Opec saying they are going to increase production
Oil inventory levels don't seem to have anywhere near the determination factor that they used to have or that people think they have.
JFF7
"I'm not quoting Gartman" Great to hear. Street cred restored to full value.
I hope POG does not have to get halved before it rebounds.
JFF7
Absolutely no question from a valuation point that this price does not make sense. Makes even less sense than many other undervalued stocks.
These are the types of opportunities we want to identify now so that when things are ready to move up again, we can be sure we own the right ones.
PTQ is on my list of ones to own.
JFF7
Please don't quote Gartman. Your losing credibility with me that you did such a good job of building up.
JFF7
watch the 200 day moving average of POG. Getting close now. There should be a bounce off that. IF not, look out below. We could be buying PTQ in the 40 or 50s.
JFF7
MMT.to Mart Resources - What is Wade up to?
"Mart’s mind set on Tanganyika
Efforts by Canada’s Mart Resources to explore blocks in Congo-K could take a knock because of the probable departure of the current oil minister from the government"
http://www.africaintelligence.com/AEM/oil/2011/12/14/mart-s-mind-set-on-tanganyika,95327392-ART
subscription needed
JFF7
these pullbacks are a buying opportunity.
POG pullbacks are getting more volatile.
big swings coming both ways.
JFF7
Yeah that Chen guy is getting a lot of air time. People are all asking..."What's Chen Buying?, What's Chen Selling?". Good for him though. He deserves it.
JFF7
MMT.to +.03 4,23% $0.74 cdn
Pescod newsletter mentions Mart.
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=12706&mn=2150&pt=msg&mid=11227277
JFF7
Pescod newsletter mentions Mart.
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=12706&mn=2150&pt=msg&mid=11227277
JFF7
Pescod newsletter mentions Mart.
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=12706&mn=2150&pt=msg&mid=11227277
JFF7
I feel right now larger institutions are accumulating. They have to be done before laws are passed to maximize their returns. Since their volumes are higher it takes them a lot longer (without significantly moving the price).
Small investors like us probably have at least a couple more months to get our positions in.
JFF7
actually the all time high was 1.24 (closing price) in 2006.
the 52 week high was .77
we'll easily break the 52 week high when the pipeline deal is finalized in writing and the oil starts really flowing. UMU-9 reserve expansion will be a further trigger .....then the horizontal wells ....and the announcement of a divy. Lots of upside growth in the year ahead
JFF7
Bob, your so ahead of the curve. Congrats.
JFF7
it was a joke.
it's never funny if you have to explain it.
He's just mocking Salvo's valuation (which I don't see because I think I have him on ignore).
JFF7
AGM - I would like them to surprise us.
JFF7
yes while we are in this European malaise, most things won't move up, just down.
a relief rally in the general markets is possible if we get enough people thinking negatively.
I am encouraged by the signs of improvement in the American economy. Long way to go though. So much de-leveraging of debt to do.
JFF7
Looks like I am stuck with another 50,000 shares of buy and hold PTQ shares. These were supposed to be for a trade. Oh well. Maybe I will luck out holding when PDI is announced.
I think POG needs to challenge 1800 again for stocks like PTQ to start to move seriously up.
JFF7
slip sliding away....
JFF7
The second article makes some decent points about gold stocks not performing well in light of the risks you take but the article is flawed since they are comparing equities (non-leveraged ) to option (leveraged) and "they" are trying to sell your a subscription to their gold options trading strategy.
JFF7
I bought some more today. Not sure if they will go in the trading pile or the buy and hold pile.
I'm a little concerned with the message the market is sending us today. It seems the bond markets are signalling a decline in the equity markets. I am not strong on interpreting the bond markets so still waiting on more interpretation.
watching general market support levels carefully.
JFF7
pullback so far only on low volume.
a bit concerned watching the POG drop and wondering why.
JFF7
"Again, I say, what more are you looking for in developments? "
well ...an increase in share price of course...lol.
JFF7
Market reaction to results
I don't get the market reaction but I took a trading position in addition to my long term buy and mold. I think the market reaction today is overdone. Best guess is as someone said, sell the news. Regardless, it is under valued here.
JFF7
we don't know they don't need cash. Last qtr I was expecting to see a nice accumulation in the cash / cash equivalents from the higher sales but it did not make it that far to the bottom line. It got caught up in other parts of teh accounting cycle. Hopefully this qtr will show up in the kitty.
But if they want to participate in more marginal fields, they are expected to bring the capital to the table. Can they raise debt to do this? Will they have to issue more equity to do this? That would certainly allow the institutions to participate (assuming they want to).
If they get another marginal field, we can't assume they will have anywhere near the success they had with their current field. Remember thy have had access to other marginal fields and those were not successful and that overall the success rate of marginal fields has not been that good considering they are fields that have previously shown the presence of oil.
If they get another field, they will also need another rig and another crew. How much will this cost and how will it be financed. How long will it take to get another local crew up to speed?
I like the marginal field program still but not as much as I did before. It has become more clear that working in Nigeria takes a lot longer because it seems no one trusts the other guy. Every one is trying to screw their "partners" in order to maximize their own profits.
JFF7
Diggg, I hope you are wrong about this. The forum is a finance forum for investors and companies looking for money.
I don't want to see any more shares issued as there is already too many. They would have to be going after something significant (like some new marginal field licences) to make this worth while.
JFF7
Gasfrac (GFS.to)
Conference call coming up on Nov. 7th.
Bobwins, are you still playing this one? Expectations?
JFF7
MMT.to
Rumour of AGIP contract much closer.
JFF7
amcf
"No idea why it's rallying so much."
"I gave up and sold this a few weeks ago "
Seems to me you answered your own question, LOL.
Some days, that's just the way it goes.
JFF7
PBG.to
sorry, I guess that is 1.2 billion in long term debt as the convertible debentures belong to PBN.
JFF7
PBG.to
maybe I am just being simplistic and certainly I am not following any industry standards for valuations but the way I look at it is THAI is dead and worth nothing (actually less than nothing since it is a continual draw on capital while they keep trying to make it work).
If PBN dividend had to be eliminated (I don't think this is going to happen though), PBG would have no way to fund it's Thai efforts outside of selling off assets or raising additional debt or by issuing shares to raise capital.
But they are carrying 1.7 billion in long term debt. How much of the heavy oil assets would they have to sell in order to be able to afford to develop the remaining heavy oil assets? will they be able to borrow the money needed to develop SAGD to pull the heavy oil out of the ground when they are already carrying this much debt? Will someone buy new shares in this company and how much very significant dilution would this be?
They made a huge bet on THAI and it has failed. Now they are dependent on PBN dividends to fund their debt laden future. Without the PBN dividend, they are potentially dead in the water. How much would a company with no earnings power be able to get for a fire sale of their assets?
Obviously they have some value but the market seems to think it is a lot less now than 6 months or a year ago. I certainly don't intend to own any PBG waiting for the market to tell me what that remaining value is.
again, that's just my opinion.
JFF7
nice link....
I wonder if that growing middle class will buy more cars and drive up oil demand.
Nigeria is an up and cummer. 160 million population?
JFF7
PBG.to
Good point about nobody giving value to their heavy oil assets. I really don't know what the industry standard is for coming up for pricing these assets but I would bet they would include the cost of developing something like SAGD to get them out of the ground. This is a very capital intensive process. Also, it's not like there is a shortage of heavy oil assets.
Personally, I do not ascribe any value to THAI since it has not proven itself commercially despite extended trials. The guys who like it will say that no one expected it to prove itself commercially by this time and that it just requires tweeking to make it work. However, I have watched PBG long enough to know that a lot of people have already moved on because of expectation of THAI have not been met. The supposed large cap company that was going to use it never appeared, the two companies who took an active interest in it backed away and the company is very muted about where current performance is at with the wells they are "fine tuning".
PBN seems like a more reasonable "bet" than PBG since it is basically a bet on the price of oil. PBN needs to have oil stay above 80 dollars to protect the dividend. There is a much better chance of that happening than of THAI working out. IF oil stays above 80 bucks for a couple of weeks, I believe PBN will move back up from 7 bucks today towards 10 bucks again.
JMO, JFF7
PBN.TO
the greatest threat to the dividend was the price of oil. Oil is up 2-3 dollars today putting it above 80 dollars again. If oil stays here, there is much less need for a substantial dividend cut. My read of management is that they are real reluctant to cut the dividend and will take other actions before doing this or take other actions in conjunction with a cut so as to minimize the extent of any dividend cut.
My personal opinion is that oil prices will stay strong and selling pressure on PBN will wane and the share price will rise from here. A rise to 10 bucks is easily possible if oil prices stay above 80 bucks for a week or two.
CSFB just came out with a revised price target today of 17 dollars.
JFF7
MMT.V Mart Resources .46 +.04 (8.14%)
looks like the next round of marginal fields will be put up for bid before the end of the year. Mart's current local partner is Midwestern. Mart can bid with other local partners. It's balance sheet should now be in good enough shape to allow it to participate. As one of the few successful technical partners, they should be in the catbird seat.
JFF7
Nigeria to hold marginal field bidding round in Q4 2011
05 Oct 2011
Nigerian newspaper 'The Punch' has announced that after several postponements by the Federal Government, the Director, Department of Petroleum Resources, Mr. Andrew Obaje, stated last Wednesday that the 2011 Marginal Field Bid Round would be held in the fourth quarter.
According to the newspaper, the bid round will entail auctioning of marginal field blocks to indigenous oil players. The exercise was to have been held in 2010, but was postponed till this year. Many indigenous marginal field operators are already getting ready to participate in the bid. Obaje said that DPR was just awaiting the approval of the Federal Government for the bid round to be held. DPR is responsible for organising oil bid rounds. The last time it was held was under former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2007.
'We are ready to hold the marginal field bid round before the end of the year. Although, it will be for indigenous players, it will also create opportunities for foreign investors, who may want to partner the indigenous players,' Obaje is reported to have said.
The Federal Government had in August 2001 invited suitable indigenous companies to bid for the allocation of 24 marginal fields located within the Niger Delta. However, only seven out the 24 companies are currently producing crude oil. They include Energia’s Obodeti/Obodougwa field; Midwestern’s Umusadege field; Pillar Oil’s Umusati/Igboku field; Platform’s Asuokpu/Umutu field; Brittania-U’s Ajapa field; and Walter Smith’s Ibigwe field.
The newpaper further reported that the marginal field bid round was being organised with a view to increasing the production capacity of Nigeria’s indigenous players, who were barely contributing five per cent to the total Nigeria’s daily oil production of 2.4 million barrels per day.
Energia, operator of the Energia/Oando Joint Venture in Oil Mining Lease 56, has signified its intention to acquire more marginal field blocks when the next marginal field bid round is held. Managing Director of the company, Mr Amieyesori Felix, said recently that the company was waiting to participate in the next marginal field bid round as part of its growth plan.
http://www.energy-pedia.com/article.aspx?articleid=147469