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Thanks for bringing that info to this board. That rather helps in understanding the pace of things and how quiet it has all been kept.
Somehow, despite inflation, the cost of underground has been reduced from $75/tonne to $70/tonne to mine, and from $12/tonne to $10/tonne to process ! My understanding is that all costs have gone up, but the values used in the original and the prior (June '12) estimates were apparently too high.
IMO much of the reduced OZ is because of two changes in the model, hidden in note 4
I seem to feel your assumption (errors in prior estimates) is correct, but your conclusion ("still finding gold") is not but rather it ought to be said still finding ways to manipulate the numbers (i.e. lower cut-off).
And let's not even start the discussion about the small widths of almost all significant intercepts.
Notice the cut-off is (again) reduced ?
Was 2.0, now 1.7, original estimate was at 2.2 g/t
At cutoff of today's update, 1.7 g/t, the June 2012 update would have been
224,696 oz indicated at 4.45 g/t
928,172 oz inferred at 3.20 g/t
1,152,868 total
Today for underground we get
224,000 oz indicated at 3.96 g/t
594,000 oz inferred at 3.01 g/t
818,000 total
And, for ya ya value compare to the original estimate at 1.7 g/t cut
141,688 oz indicated at 4.37 g/t
872,038 oz inferred at 3.30 g/t
1,013,726 total
How does one understand that ?
Clearly not holes moved to "pit" category, where the totals are
74,000 oz oz indicated at 1.85 g/t
186,000 oz inferred at 2.31 g/t
260,000 total
Why clearly ? look at the much lower cut-off.
Today total of totals are
818,000 underground
260,000 pit
1,078,000 total
Come on now. That is less than the June 2012 total at 1.7 g/t cut off for all holes used in that update. Here, with ONE FULL YEAR drilling added and some calculated at much reduced 0.25 g/t cut off, and the total is 74,000 oz LESS ? !
The only way I understand that is if the earlier estimate was overstating things.
This is the end of TPW imo.
Interesting, as that is almost -10% to fill that gap. Despite being slightly up on the PMs at the moment, especially Pd and then Pt (which really makes sense by supply/demand), I am not willing to think things have settled to target range yet as in my book the next major resistance points are significantly below the 23.3/23.4 and 1350+/- that only provided brief pauses during today's take-down. As far as I can recall this is the closest to a 60 ratio for Au/Ag since before "the crisis", I mean the beginning of "the great" fleecing.
excess supply of silver ? now that is news !
Here is a post I made earlier on another board
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=86849023
I think it is relevant.
Whether they are content with a push to the 1350 +/- and 23.4 +/- ranges remains to be seen, but the testing for motion even lower has been folded in and remains imo an unknown while TPTB assess the results/impacts/sufficiency of this move lower relative to the objectives.
For what it is worth, my own rule of thumb is to never believe what I am told . . . I will take it in as a part of the context used but it will always be results that are formal commitments (filings) that guide for me, with the context of rumors and opinions being taken as what they are somewhat tempered by the history of the individual accuracy (or not) of each source.
As this applies to EXS there has been very little I have seen that is supported by the filings, and what the filings support do not to date imo appear to support any expectation of a bidding war over TPW with gold below at least twice what it is today.
JMO
imo it is rather obvious that the gov interventionists and their minions in the commodity space, the too big to prosecute banksters, are desperately working to discredit the precious metals as a wealth reservoir, which would complete the push to get all possible funds flushed out from resting places and into the equity markets if not the larger economy. To my mind this does not change the lack of real self-sustaining economic recovery nor the steadily decreasing value of almost every currency. None-the-less until the control over the commodity markets levels off at the selected new normal it is a fools game to attempt to call the near-term share prices on equities related to those controlled products.
I also see the metals and their explorers/miners as tightly tied to a correction in the broader equity markets. As long as there is widespread encouragement for money to move from any sort of sedentary (savings, metals, etc.) repository into equities and supposedly into the larger economy, and as long as the leading attitude toward metals is that there is no need to hold them as protection against economic instability (and even as long as there is erosion in concern over inflation induced by printing) it appears that the markets can be maintained at such elevated levels. About the only thing I am recognizing at this point is that we approach downside thresholds that by being breached or holding will show how far the downward pressures being exerted will take things in this current push.
While I am hoping you are correct in seeing a chance things prepare to bottom out, the strength and speed of this slam make me cautious. If I see 23.0 fail to hold silver imo we could even visit 18 . . . it being virtually impossible to predict what is basically just a part of a plan of interventionist govs and their to big to prosecute executors.
GM to continue what might be seen as OT but what is relevant to the future strength of ECC and other junior minors, which will have a disproportionately high degree of the price pressure thrust on them . . .
A poster in another board came up with this piece
http://goldtrends.net/FreeDailyBlog?mode=PostView&bmi=1267250
which I am passing along more for the graphic presentation of the depletion of physical in the depositories than anything
In itself that tends to explain much, if one operate from a full deck that can see the larger picture of the massive shorts and intervention.
Thanks for sharing your finds ByW. Clearly the pressure to make gold, silver, and the rare precious metals unattractive and appear risky that we are experiencing will have impact on funding for junior explorers.
Sadly, yep, pretty much. I took the Eric Holder quote in congress, to effect that the TBTF are considered too big to prosecute, as an open acknowledgement of the known, that the system is sold, lock, stock, and barrel, only waiting for a public epitaph to be pronounced for the masses. Can the presses (electron value bits buttons) keep the pressure sufficiently high that the surface area does not contract ? Not much difficulty to date, however . . . and besides, if the sovereigns believed it possible why would they buy gold ?
The smackdown in metals after HK opened tonight was stronger than the Friday US Movement. imo the issue is only one of when the corner gets turned.
Fairly large free-fall in silver and gold after Hong Kong market open
With the tight split between the parties and the inability to govern, or even effect minor change, as things have been you could very well be correct. But then after fall '14 would there be any change in the motivations looking toward '16 congressional and presidential elections?
Quite the take-down in PMs this week, making it appear the need to appease fears of economic collapse vs to hedge against inflation/printing has for now been quieted in the minds of many.
I am still waiting for a reply, but thanks for letting me know what you would do Tamtam.
Also, imo, the point (partly) is that interested non-shareholders in doing their dd would run upon announced plans for a resource update end-of-year 2012 but be unable to find it and unable to find info on what happened. But the would find info on drilling at KC and about buying a new prospect in an entirely different camp. They may not go back and find the old KC drill program or hopes for drill KC last year but the weather failing to cooperate nixed that, etc.. All of that could add up to a "what is up?" no delivery on update and shifting focus.
I imagine very few potential new investors would get past that, and it is all manageable with proper communication.
Thanks much Steven. It is good to have some timeframe on the resource update . . . too bad the market in general for dd on issued PRs can only see a 4 or 5 month late with no explanation from the company. With luck a PR is issued that puts a good spin on the whole thing.
So, is there anyone sitting on the BoD that has challenged CD as to the direction of EXS and has remained on the BoD ?
Hey, In XS is not alone in trying to get some answers, without obtaining any.
Yes, 9 this year and not one of them addresses the main question(s) people have been asking (i.e. resource update, when, why, and drill coverage)
Every since Steven pointed out that line from the MD&A some of us have been attempting to obtain clarification from the company, and to my awareness no one has to date been told that there is a change in plan on the timeline for or drill content of the resource updates we are to expect.
Just that line in the MD&A that contradicts everything the company has been saying.
With the final end of day shaving to prices to complete today's slam on metals after the exchanges closed we just may see that 2.00 level for MUX come next week.
Perhaps you could point that NR about the NI 43-101 out to those of us that neither recall what you reference nor have the ability to locate it.
http://explorresources.com/news/2013/
Exactly, an operative word there is IF
That is why I used it.
I do know the state of the investigation, somewhat anyway, that it is not a completed thing. That is why, one under investigation, depending on what they know, might think . . . and so IF one things one might get sentenced . . .
Doesn't make sense to you. I can accept that. Makes sense to me under some assumptions that seem pretty reasonable, in fact more reasonable than the assumptions I have seen some making in order to say that tomorrow will bring a water heater to market.
JMO
PS. Looking back to 2009 I am not so sure one can honestly say there was no pumping, and per the allegations under investigation the dumping was disguised in a distributed network of coordinated players. Dilution? Perhaps that card was being held in reserve for the end-game.
All just IMO based on IF, alternate IF, and IF again
Nice someone got a reply, thanks for passing along.
Observations - still do not know what drilling it covers, through June last year as per "the plan" or through December last year as per the MD&A.
I have heard that talk of Goldcorp's milling capacity too many times.
It is meaningless talk. Like Goldcorp doesn't have plans to utilize the asset to full capacity ? I don't think so . . . look at what they have going on in the area.
Anyway, nice to know someone is there to answer email.
Hey, with Japan turning course from a decades long stubborness, and the central banks of the current (for the time being) and prior (UK, sterling) world reserve currencies all three printing new value electrons with no end in sight the "eventual" is obvious. But then I have never been a fan for, nor one to bank on "eventual".
Things are so rigged, and yet no one is willing to call the dow in a bubble. I guess it takes more than central bank injections, but a public rush into something for it to be a bubble.
Commodities down, supposedly because of projected slow growth and so low need/consumption. Revenues, to individuals and hence governments flat to down. Yet there is cause for positive outlook for these companies ?
wtf . . . IMO whether JS is calling it right, or not now, or just plain not, the present course of economic "stability" is not sustainable for long.
ECC is a mystery until it isn't and I am guessing we will not know until mid-May give/take.
But I am not surprised that the morning dip bounced on the rights offering price a couple times and made one dip "significantly" as in 4 or 5 cents below it.
no doubt some of that is funds being forced to sell also, gdxj etc
I guess that I do not see the "digging deeper" part. As far as I can see the company has made no claim that is new since the AMF thing first came on the scene, July 2011 was it ? Yes, one could say they have claimed to have hired and scheduled with Intertek, but no new claim as to what they have in hand (in fact they have made statements to weaken the prior claims). But I do not see how hiring a company that ultimately may say that although the concept is there, and the %age of electricity in that shows up as heat is water is such and such, or a company that ultimately might do nothing due to a bankruptcy declaration, or . . . does not appear to me to be digging a deeper hole (in fact it gives the appearance of continued forward progress). In event of the last possibility just posed, it could always be claimed that the company was always acting in good faith but that it became impossible to raise the capital needed to carry on, which would make this a potential ramp out of the hole, or make it a little backfilling so the hole is not as deep.
If you think you are going to be sentenced to hang, do you force that to happen now or do you do anything, no matter how senseless, in order to delay . . .
Very nicely, and effectively, worded communication.
With luck you hear back, and please share if there is no prohibition of such mentioned.
Myself, well, I am still waiting on a response to basically the same question about the NI 43-101.
Uh oh, sub $27 for second time in April. Close will be telling imo.
The prior Cyprus "shock" triggered a bit of a rally in the precious metals.
April opened at $28 then plunged to bottom below 27. The 28 open is the high for this month (to date), and curiously (?) 28 also was the open in March, but it was the low for that month, being the low point of the entire first quarter.
Not advocating, just informing. With luck it might also inform CD.
Anyway, other than asking for a vote on spending money and more shares (options) on (realistic) business management I am not sure what would be put to a vote.
I can see what you're getting at, but again, admitting now that they do not have squat is not a pretty thing to face if being investigated (for claiming to have what you would be admitting you don't), so if one could delay that . . .
There is another possibility also. If Robert has something, and sees that there could or would be a market for it (imo that would not be the market the company was initially splashing all over its web presence and PRs, i.e. the home consumer market) but he also sees that he doesn't want to be involved with the parties that are the company any longer, then what would be his most logical course of action?
The upward pressure continued today, with 200k+ volume both Toronto and OTC.
I am not sure how to read the amended filings now showing for GF for open market purchases since Apr 5, but GF is definitely buying (not close to sufficient to account for the increased volume of late).
http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=ECC+%7C+Ethos+Gold
Still no news, and I would guess there would not be for some weeks given the dates on the insider buying.
News: Karmin Announces Aripuanã Development Schedule
Date : 04/11/2013 @ 8:00AM
Interesting that it is not yet on BusinessWire or company website presently, so like to the iHub copy
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=57119521&symbol=TSXV:KAR
I suppose this will force their hand to start planning on what to do about their gold/silver rights in the oxide layers.
my bad douginil as I misread you asking Red about the part "who owns the property within the red gold band" to mean the part with the red shading, which is of course MEK's, but now on rereading I see you and I were both speaking of the same areas without color coding.
Also north of the hashmarked band Excellon recently posted results from its mid to deeper exploration work, much more modest than this from Metals Creek but not barren.
"cash . . . in the safe haven of bank vaults" methinks that comment might leave some of our EU participants scratching their heads in wonder.
ha, blast from the past, as is said.
Now if only Harry Barr was still at the helm we would possibly still be able to read such glowing projections and slick sounding reports on what has not been delivered due to factors beyond all humanly possible control.