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Happy Holidays to you all!
I am pretty sure it has been discussed here before, but anyone have any thoughts about the Ariad Succeed trial? I have been reading for months and the best guesses I am finding are 60-40 chance of success. Seems no one can really get a good read on the outcome. All input is greatly appreciated. Pondering what to do with my position.
Thanks
Liquidated my Arna position. News was so-so IMO.
GLTA
I am as real as it gets. I have a lot of my money invested in belief that the FDA meeting produced some positive developments.
See you in the AM.
Things could get very interesting around here. If it was bad news, I doubt they would be pre-announcing a pre-market tom am cc. We will know very soon
Huge short interest. Essentially no value to Loc. Ending the year with 150 mil in cash. Outcome of FDA meeting to be announced sometime very soon. My guess is a whale decided it was a good day to book profits and cover and that caused a feeding frenzy. I have been sitting on this since 1.80 wondering when this day would come. This will be a walk in the park should they get a favorable response from the FDA meeting. This could get really interesting.
Somebody smack me really hard! I am ridiculously long Aria and Arna. This was a day I will remember for a long time.
I have said this a few times here and on BV: I don't think anyone is willing to pay what The Harv feels Aria is worth. He may end up being right. Seems like a 534 is snowball heading down hill. We just need to clear this little ole Succeed trial and this stock is going to take off.
BTW, it would be nice if today was the day it DIDN'T selloff at the the eod.
I agree with you. I think that unless you dig deeper than the surface of the story, it appears that Loc is DOA as Dew claimed a while back. Especially in light of contrave getting the panel nod, I think Loc has a decent chance at approval. The stock price shows essentially no value for the drug what so ever. My basis is $1.80 and I am taking a chance that the FDA meeting produces something positive for ARNA. We shall see sooner than later
Volume down considerably so far today. $4.50 seems like a breaking point. Let's see how the day goes.
I
Agreed completely. However IMO, it will not send the pps up 100% that day. It will go up considerably no doubt, but not 100%. The discussion was regarding the options premiums.
Succeed trial outcome is not going to be as big a mover as the panel voting to approve a drug that was considered third in a 3 horse race. That was a huge binary event! Aria doesn't even own Rida, MRK does. So yes, to your point it will not move the pps % wise as much as Contrave getting a thumbs up and the options will reflect that.
They def benefited from batting third.
Anyone else here completely shocked that the panel voted to approve Contrave?
That panel for Contrave was pretty amazing! Both VVUS and Arna could have passed this board.
Peter/PGS
Do you own any Aria? If you do, do you plan on holding through SUCCEED? Maybe lighten up a bit if she runs prior to the data release? I have the boat loaded and I'm considering my options? I appreciate your insight.
Thanks
I am in no way counting on a MRK buyout. But either way, if (and that's a biggie) SUCCEED clears in Q1 2011, Ariad pps should be substantially higher.
Wouldn't you think MRK has some idea of the SUCCEED outcome by now? I agree that they are not going to be bought out.
If MRK owns Rida outright (and has to pay ARIA royalties), no foothold in CML and a ton of cash and serious motivation to do deals, why would that be msg board speculation? Without Berger in the picture, I think it would be a good possibility.
Thanks. I think it sets up well for a MRK buyout, with the wild card being HB. I don't see him selling his baby for a reasonable price?
A lot of chatter of a MRK buyout (not just on msg boards either). I don't see it. What do you think?
Perhaps someone can help me out. My knowledge of this is a little weak.
- Does MRK have enough of a look at SUCCEED data by now to know if the outcome was successful?
- I would imagine that they share it with Aria, no?
- If they know the data is good (and in light of MRK's recent failures), wouldn't this be the best time to make a move? Since post positive succeed Aria would be much higher?
I think the talk of MRK buyout is unrealistic. I doubt HB is willing to sell his life's work for $15 when he thinks he has an a provable winner in 1 1/2 years. Aria could very well be worth that on 534 alone in a year. I think the Harv's asking price is prob too lofty for MRK to seriously consider gobbling up Aria.
BTW, BTH (and I) were pretty off base on the pps after the offering. We may have been pushing against $5 if it never happened, but it has been holding up very well. For the long time followers of Aria, I think we are in a new paradigm for this company.
Just my two cents, what do u guys think?
I'm with you bud. Let's see good data and then I can call it:
Quadruplemycashator
I completely disagree with BTH on that one.
I completely agree with BTH on this one. I think the timing was awful. The Biotech Values guys beat me up pretty good over it though.
Make some room for me in that boat. Rida fails this could get ugly.
$3.50 has been a strong support level for a while. Let's hope it holds up. F#%&@ng Berger!
One last question of you ex (and all of the rest of you Araid maniacs, myself included):
If you had no current position in Ariad and was looking for a chance to push in a substantial wager. What presents a better opportunity for new money in Ariad post SUCCEED trial news?
- A Rida success where share price will prob bounce anywhere from let's guess $6-$8/share.
- Rida fails to meet the end points of the trial. Where share price will prob drop to anywhere from $2-$2.50/share.
I'm talking straight up share value and potential for appreciation. Just something I have wondered recently.
Cup of coffee up to $1.50 by me now. I'm not a big fan of the Harvster. That's been discussed ad-nauseam here. I guess a smart move would be to free up some wheat in the event of a negative on SUCCEED, huh? That probably involves some selling across the board (including my beloved Aria). Hence my dilemma. That wonderful little 17% dilution really threw a monkey wrench into my "master plan".
After reviewing the Endo results here a while back, I was expecting a chance to lighten the load in the mid to high 4's after the release. With a $2.35 cost basis, I would have been able to sell some at that price without any remorse. And then along came my pal Harv and his wonderful little surprise (after just recently stating how he saw no immediate need for an offering). After following this company for as long as I have, I should have known "immediate need" literally meant that day.
Now that the pps is stuck in no-man's land AGAIN, I guess I should just accept that I was too slow on the trigger and free up some cash just in case.
Oh well, "The best laid schemes o' mice an' men / go oft awry".
Even with Harv's enthusiasm, it's a precarious time for us Aria longs holding thru the Rida data release. Some days, I am almost tempted to sell before the data and buy back the day it comes out. If we were sitting in the mid 4's right now I would probably trim my position a little and wait. Regardless of whether it is pos or neg, the serious risk will be taken out of the pps. IMO, win or lose with SUCCEED, immediately after is possibly the best time in Ariad's history to push in a large bet and sit and wait a year or two.
That's my 2 cents. What do you guys think about that theory?
IMO, neither the latest vulv data or the rat tumor data seem significant enough on their own to keep the drug from being approved. When you combine those two with the "marginal efficacy", the fda now has the vehicle by which to keep this drug from getting an approval. I have been trying to get an objective opinion and have come to the conclusion that the chances of Lorq being approved anytime soon are probably remote (let's say 10%). Combined with the huge short interest (still absurdly high after all this price destruction) and you have a very unlikely chance of success. For me, I don't think it would be wise to fight the tape and go down with the ship. It feels like the fix is in.
It's too bad, the vulv issue was probably the coup de grace. Without it, I believe the data would have definitely been perceived as a positive development and Arena could have ran with the ball. If this ends up getting approved, those brave souls (or fools depending on how you look at it) will be seriously rewarded.
GLTA
Dew
If that was the end of Loq as you claim, why is it down .03? There sure is enough bad press out after the data was released. I don't see the vulv issue as being a big problem. I have to disagree with you on this one. But then again, I have been wrong on Arena before. Let's see how this plays out.
Anyone else been looking at Level II? There has been large bidding all day long. 3-4 times the ask size. Meanwhile the pps stays down. What am I missing here?
Good question. I think when you have as much cash as they do you could afford to take lots of shots. They certainly seem committed to Rida to me.
I know how much you all love Arena, but here goes. Does anyone see any value/potential in Lorq in obese diabetics? The Bloom data is due in few weeks and I'm wondering what impact positive data will have on the stock price. I remember Dew felt that Eisai was going to drop Lorq after reviewing the crl, thinking Lorq on it's own was not worth the investment and the market for diabetes was not significant enough. I am still holding a few from a bad trade after the panel rejection and considering my options. Thanks in advance.
Nah, not nervous. Just trying to be objective.
When I said perhaps they were jerking around with the trials I was talking about the timing of p.r. releases. I wasn't trying to imply they were slowing down the actual trial.
Regardless, I think we are very vulnerable to a downward drift or even worse should the overall market take a turn south. That was the purpose of posing the question on Bio Values. I
IMO, there is no real compelling reason to BUY the stock before the end of the year. A lot of damage could be done in 2-3 months.
Really would like to be wrong on this one.
Thanks Dough,
I was hoping to get some of those guys going to get some different perspective for us Aria longs. Sometimes things get a little mercky (lol) on this board. A little clarity helps in times of uncertainty. Like some of you, I have known Ariad for a long time and it is easy to jump in on the Harv bashing. Here is what I believe is the story in front of us right now:
- Ariad ensured the lion's share of 534 with their last round of dilution (something he was criticized for and couldn't do with Rida for financial reasons).
- If HB didn't think the data would be good, why wait until after to pull the trigger on a 534 deal. I believe he likes his Rida chances. The dilution was a 17% PUT for his Rida gamble. Post good final Rida data, Aria is going to be in a fantastic position of strength (hopefully).
- HB said no need for dilution at this time. Conditions change and these guys lie all the time. I really do think he thought data would be out by now. Maybe MRK is jerking around with it for some reason. It certainly isn't as crucial to them as it is to Aria. Perhaps they are trying to negotiate a 534 partnership. They certainly have the cash and the void in that area. I would not be surprised if they turned out to be the partner (100% opinion and speculation).
- I still don't think anyone made a strong case against my belief that announcing to the world: "no partner until Rida data" was a tactical error. I think he was trying to convey his strong belief in Rida being good. What I believe he did was "peg" the stock price and drive off the buyer's for a while causing us to drift downward until we become a value. We will see who is right in the weeks to come. Let's all hope he has another trick up his sleeve or I am wrong. Regardless, I am bunkering down and crossing my fingers until Rida final.
All opinions are greatly appreciated (even the bad ones). Thanks to the Bio Values board. I read those posts religiously.
Talk about PC. I don't know about you two, but the thing that endears me to him is the fact that he has some major league skin in the game.
So I am banking on the hope that he is not a complete maniac!
Wow that might have been a subconscious cap error.
HB might just think he is the almighty!