Thanks Dough,
I was hoping to get some of those guys going to get some different perspective for us Aria longs. Sometimes things get a little mercky (lol) on this board. A little clarity helps in times of uncertainty. Like some of you, I have known Ariad for a long time and it is easy to jump in on the Harv bashing. Here is what I believe is the story in front of us right now:
- Ariad ensured the lion's share of 534 with their last round of dilution (something he was criticized for and couldn't do with Rida for financial reasons).
- If HB didn't think the data would be good, why wait until after to pull the trigger on a 534 deal. I believe he likes his Rida chances. The dilution was a 17% PUT for his Rida gamble. Post good final Rida data, Aria is going to be in a fantastic position of strength (hopefully).
- HB said no need for dilution at this time. Conditions change and these guys lie all the time. I really do think he thought data would be out by now. Maybe MRK is jerking around with it for some reason. It certainly isn't as crucial to them as it is to Aria. Perhaps they are trying to negotiate a 534 partnership. They certainly have the cash and the void in that area. I would not be surprised if they turned out to be the partner (100% opinion and speculation).
- I still don't think anyone made a strong case against my belief that announcing to the world: "no partner until Rida data" was a tactical error. I think he was trying to convey his strong belief in Rida being good. What I believe he did was "peg" the stock price and drive off the buyer's for a while causing us to drift downward until we become a value. We will see who is right in the weeks to come. Let's all hope he has another trick up his sleeve or I am wrong. Regardless, I am bunkering down and crossing my fingers until Rida final.
All opinions are greatly appreciated (even the bad ones). Thanks to the Bio Values board. I read those posts religiously.
