Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARNA)

[JJM760]

IMO, neither the latest vulv data or the rat tumor data seem significant enough on their own to keep the drug from being approved. When you combine those two with the "marginal efficacy", the fda now has the vehicle by which to keep this drug from getting an approval. I have been trying to get an objective opinion and have come to the conclusion that the chances of Lorq being approved anytime soon are probably remote (let's say 10%). Combined with the huge short interest (still absurdly high after all this price destruction) and you have a very unlikely chance of success. For me, I don't think it would be wise to fight the tape and go down with the ship. It feels like the fix is in.

It's too bad, the vulv issue was probably the coup de grace. Without it, I believe the data would have definitely been perceived as a positive development and Arena could have ran with the ball. If this ends up getting approved, those brave souls (or fools depending on how you look at it) will be seriously rewarded.

GLTA