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Data_Rox & NJ, I might be wrong in remembering this..but, I thought they got to that holdings by acquiring somebody who owned considerable number. Didn't they reduce it to closer to 5% later on and re-acquire again putting them at 6.15 now? Which means that they acquired considerable number during re-acquisition (if that is right).
JMHO,
vg_future
It could be. As per NJ, it is anytime starting today...there are other opinions out there as well...but, I like NJ's opinion.
vg_future
Berniewell on IHUB posted this from FlyOnTheWall(he was not sure when this rumor came out though)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=59534431
http://www.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/IDCC;NOKid1358676/IDCC;NOK-Rumor-InterDigital-strength-attributed-to-a-resolution-in-case-with-Nokia
-vg_future
Did a big buy go through just now without much change in the price...any thoughts, anybody?
TIA,
vg_future
longinvestor_98, thanks for the clarification.
-vg_future
Data_Rox, I am not an expert, but I thought QCOM desperately tried to push CDMA2000 (Irvin Jacob was praising CDMA2000 and down playing WCDMA in many interviews) and when that didn't work (or atleast at the level that QCOM expected), they too joined the party of WCDMA. I am not sure that WCDMA couldn't have worked without QCOM...that seems like a stretch. I bet we can find some articles that say QCOM is the reason for WCDMA (because it has lot of following), but the way they were pushing CDMA2000...it seems doubtful.
JMHO,
vg_future
israt, I am not sure how this can apply to IDCC's position and Nuke's and others' analysis on the case? They all said that anything can happen in the court and based their analysis on the hearing...do we know how Newman behaved (or rather conducted)in the hearing for this case? Also, I believe they were saying that IDCC (as well as NOK) might want to settle due to the uncertainty factor the court cases....IDCC is already bitten once (but, indications for the impending bites was there during the ITC hearing).
MY 2 cents.
-vg_future
paheka, yes, I am also expecting few more details about this in the next earnings conference. However we see it, it is a positive and that is the bottom line.
-vg_future
bim524, I understand. I was only saying that this case might be different, but, as you said we might never find out how much was (if any)
-the catchup
-pre-payment
I am just glad that it came out at the right moment and reinforced the positive momentum of the stock.
-vg_future
bim524, I thought it was made public that those amounts were from existing or re-worked license (names were not public though). In this case, it has to say new license....unless this gets shadowed by a bigger license.
JMHO,
vg_future
JimLur, same error...it has the premium membership check and hence is failing. I am hoping to find it on wireless ledger. I will let you know.
Thanks,
vg_future
JimLur, thanks. I think the search functionality is for the paid members only and I am a free member. I am getting an error and a message to upgrade when I try to do what you suggested....unless I am doing it wrong.
Anyway, I will go onto wirelesslesdger.com and will try to find the analyst report that I am looking for.
Thanks again.
-vg_future
Data_Rox, I think it is one of the reports that he put out after Samsung settled (maybe around or after Feb/March of 2009) and I think he was also pushing some option strategy at that time. If I remember right, his per unit estimate was .35 to 0.5. Probably, we will be able to find the report on the wirelessledger (I have to look). Your number for 2006 to 2012 seemed very less (yes, I saw your analysis which accounted for 3G). As per your analysis, NOK will end up getting a free ride foe a significant part for before or after 2006 (in spite of being the number 1 phone manufacturer). However, I wouldn't be surprised if that is what NOK is offering to settle. JMHO.
-vg_future
dclarke, thanks. I read your post after I posted mine. I got it now.
Thanks,
vg_future
Monterey2000, could you elaborate on the "summarily returned it"...are you referring to the 2 billion payment that NOK gave for the 10/15 year agreement?
-vg_future
Data_Rox, your numbers seem to be the most conservative I've ever heard (probably, only NOK's own numbers can beat them) beating the conservative numbers that even Tom Carpenter was throwing around (between 500 to 600 million if I remember right). Regarding the arbitration amount of 253...we have to remember that NOK was given all the considerations (prior tech. agreement, partial rights over some patents...and the biggest one....volume discount) and paid considerably small amount relative to their number one position in mobile market. I believe Samsung didn't receive the same volume discounts and they were like 3rd or 4th player for the period for which arbitration amounts were calculated (Samsung's arbitration amount was more close to the amount that IDCC claimed than NOK's amount...which was like 1/2 of what IDCC asked). So, probably Samsung was given that consideration by IDCC because they signed a license without the type of fight that NOK is putting up.
You know better what FRAND means and what the French law or France experts say.
JMHO,
vg_future
olddog967, probably things that you might want to add for comparision
Samsung VS NOK
1. Samsung's 160/180 million is probably negotiated down to considerably small amount because they signed the license without waiting for ITC decision.
2. Samsung's license started in 2009...NOK got 2 years to catch up....at the minimum it is 200mill (if they pay same as Samsung...which IDCC would never agree to...so, probably it should be put at 150 to 175 mill per year.....that is over $300 mill of catch up)
3. NOK, inspite of having bigger market share (maybe a lot smaller per unit charge during arbitration calculation for the years of coverage), got away with $253 mill payment (plus around 50 mill tech. services payment) and a free 3G license until sometime in 2006. If the volume discount is not there..probably NOK arbitration payment would have been more close to 500 mill that IDCC stated. This should take care of any remaining Samsung 160-180 million arbitratiom award waiver/decrement discussion.
4. Samsung license doesn't involve LTE, but NOK's might include LTE.
Probably, we should also factor in NOK's blatant confrontational mind set limiting IDCC's true valuation.
If we take the over 300 mill payment for 2009 & 2010 and add any other revenue from 2006 to 2009...it should bring the past payment itself to over 400 mill. IMHO, NOK's payment will be most definitely more than (considerably) 400 million from just the up until now calculation. I don't dare to calculate the ongoing royalty payments and any LTE licenses that will be involved in there.
Just my 2 cents and I am being very conservative.
vg_future
nicmar, most of the after market volume was at or over the closing price (in fact considerable amount over 49...probably late reports of the regular hour trading). The last 1.5 or 2K was below the closing.
-vg_future
paheka, that's my belief.
-vg_future
postyle, very well said. Agree 100%. EOM
-vg_future
I don't understand why tech sector would take a hit if Steve Jobs goes on medical leave...it didn't happen last time when he went on leave (and there was more uncertainty regarding Apple's future at that time). Apple might take a hit, but that might be short lived because of the earnings release that they have after the market closes (IMHO, they will crush the expectations).
JMHO,
vg_future
NukeJohn, I too trust them. What I was saying is that NOK might still have to make lump sum payment even though IDCC could apply it on a quarterly basis for next n years (like Samsung and LG deals). Having said that, making a big payment might not be hard for NOK because they paid 2 Billion to QCOM and I don't think they had that much amount (from accounting perspective) set aside for that issue. They do have lot of cash.
-vg_future
NukeJohn, looking at some of the past settlements/agreements, it is possible NOK might still pay lump sum (maybe in 2 or 3 installments or in one as they paid QCOM) to get the pre-payment discount that IDCC offers.
JMHO,
vg_future
badgerkid, I understand that there is a chance that people migh tbe selling the NEWS (conclusion of the hearing and any expectations before the hearing), but we have already seen that up until yesterday morning starting on Monday (dividend and hearing anticipation selling) and the tide turned after the hearing. I would think that more institutions and maybe hedge funds might jump in before the next outcome.
JMHO,
vg_future
IMHO, this pull back seems like a very well coordinated short attack (would be interesting to see some short numbers for today). There is no way that anybody is trying to get out at these levels after such a positive hearing yesterday. Comments are welcome....except for the "smart aleck".
TIA,
vg_future
Thanks a bunch guys for the court report...what a day...what an excellent reversal....now, NOK should know where it stands. I guess there are more reports to follow (NJ and others)....Thanks in advance for all those reports.
-vg_future
It may or may not. In case of QCOM - NOK settlement, QCOM was halted after 4 PM, but some folks already knew that the court case didn't proceed as planned (on parties request) that day.
JMHO,
vg_future
MTJBKH, interesting numbers...there is a time factor (only up until next Friday) that speeds up the decision for this bet...the buyer could hit the lottery pretty good. Let's see which side he wins.
-vg_future
Thanks postyle. Appreciate it. EOM
-vg_future
Re-post, did anybody check the CAFC schedule for tomorrow? What time is the hearing and if it is still on
TIA,
vg_future
JimLur, there was a corresponding 43 or 44 put. So, that might be someone playing on both sides (spread).
-vg_future
wilco244, look at the past few months and tell us that the insiders sold at good prices. I don't understand how you are compiling your data. If not for the hearing tomorrow and the dividend, we would be going up today.
JMHO,
vg_future
The_Net, sure, any reversal (not necessarily infringement) of the ITC findings is good enough to wake up the positive tone for the stock. I don't know if CAFC will just reverse the findings or does more than that, but a simple reversal would do the trick and IDCC would wipe away the loss at ITC. Again it could be a fresh one at ITC....but, we will be in the game and NOK risks everything.
-vg_future
The_Net, how much do you want to bet if it goes in IDCC's favor? I bet the 6 pack wouldn't cover that...
jmho,
vg_future
olddog967, yes, it could go back to ITC, but with more chances (I might even say definite) against NOK.
JMHO,
vg_future
Yes, I agree. I am not saying that the ban is immediate (I don't know enough about it), but IDCC's position will be very strong at that point.
-vg_future
Did anybody check the court schedule for tomorrow to see if the hearing is still on? TIA
-vg_future
drbuilder, the risk to NOK is greater from royalty perspective. The risk to IDCC would be temporary hit on the stock price....they are not paying now...so, what could be the downside. IDCC has already shown that it can get significant revenues without NOK...and that wouldn't change with all the new players in the smart phone arena...the current and future big wave of mobile phones.
JMHO,
vg_future
dclarke, that is what I thought. It is not just another road bump for NOK...it is lot bigger than that...they would lose significant negotiating advantage if they lose here. Also, I don't think we will have another gun fight (as Data suggested) regarding FRAND because they would have tough time convincing anybody because IDCC already licensed SAM (that tried the same FRAND bs) and many others as well.
JMHO,
vg_future
I am not a chart reader, but, my TDAmeritrade chart is saying that we are close or in the oversold condition..so, we should bounce. If you look at the volume, it doesn't look a major selling pressure...it looks like a manipulation early in the day.
JMHO,
vg_future