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I wonder if the scumbags are using popular programs like Macromedia for their illegal activities?I wonder if Macromedia is liable .
Yes I have spywareblaster.Thanks tc.Thats the kind of stuff I was looking for.
So far I havent see any setting like that.
Macromedia question.I dont have it installed as I believe it enables advertisers to put more crap in my face.Also I am suspicious that it can be used by bad guys to mess with my puter.But it seems I need it to try a demo trading platform.Is there any way to limit it to one browser?I think Firefox is a more secure browser than IE.Anyway to prevent macromedia working with IE?
From Marketwatch
market's short-term gyrations is never easy.
But the market seems especially inscrutable now, with the market going up on seemingly bad news and declining on what might otherwise be thought to be good news.
For answers I decided to turn to the market timing newsletters with the best long-term records. As it turns out, the majority of the top ones are bullish right now.
On the theory that they are more likely than not to continue their winning ways, this bodes well for the stock market.
My list of top timers contains the five newsletters on the Hulbert Financial Digest's monitored list whose market timing advice has produced the best risk-adjusted performance over the past decade
There actually were six on my list, but one - with the best record of any of them - is an entirely mechanical system that switches into and out of the market on the basis of the calendar. It will be bullish until the end of the first week of September, at which point it will switch to cash for a couple of weeks. I excluded this newsletter because its current bullishness has nothing to do with longer-term expectations.
Here are the five, in alphabetical order, along with a summary of their current stock market forecasts:
The Blue Chip Investor, edited by Steven Check. Check is bullish on the stock market - so much so that on several occasions over the last month he didn't bother to update his weekly telephone hotline. His model stock portfolio is nearly 90% invested.
Bob Brinker's Marketimer, edited by Bob Brinker. Brinker's recommendation is for subscribers to be fully invested in stocks. His bottom line advice from his most recent issue: "Stay the course, and ignore the bad news bears."
No-Load Fund Investor, edited by Sheldon Jacobs. Jacobs does not consider himself a market timer, and in his most recent issue he did not provide a specific stock market forecast. However, his model "Wealth Builder" portfolio is currently 70% invested in U.S. stocks.
Timer Digest, edited by Jim Schmidt. This newsletter has two market timing models, one based on a consensus of the top 10 market timers over the past year and the second based on the top timers over the last two years. Timer Digest grades the former consensus as bearish, with three of the 10 bullish, six bearish, and one neutral. Timer Digest grades the longer-term consensus as bullish, with nine of the 10 bullish and only one bearish.
Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research Company. This newsletter is bullish, with both of its model portfolios fully invested.
So there you have it. Of the top five timers for 10-year performance, three are outright bullish, a forth is short-term bearish but longer-term bullish, and the fifth is agnostic but nevertheless 70% invested in stocks.
To be sure, this does not guarantee that the stock market will perform well (as if anything can provide that guarantee). But it should provide at least some solace to those invested in stocks that the best market timers for 10-year performance are predominantly bullish
ONDON: As oil strides from one record high to another, predictions of $US100 ($NZ145.05) a barrel crude no longer look far-fetched.
After prices shot to a record $US68 a barrel on Thursday, analysts are increasingly inclined to accept that the stretched world market is in the throes of a "super spike".
"There are no constraints on short-term prices. Speculators are driving oil and there's nothing to stop it from going up," said Geoff Pyne, energy consultant for Standard Bank.
"Supply and demand will be important factors in the long run, but they are not in the market's eye at the moment."
Markets are vulnerable to any supply disruption, whatever the magnitude, with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumping nearly flat out.
"There is such a little buffer of spare capacity," said Kevin Norrish at Barclays Capital.
"If we were to see a major production loss in the world, it could happen."
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Financial betting firms say once the price pierces $US70 a barrel, they will open their books to wagers on $US100 oil. With no loss in momentum to a rally that has doubled crude prices, the betting looks about to begin.
"We haven't made a price yet, but we'll certainly think about it when the price breaks $US70," said a London bookmaker.
"Thanks for the tip."
Investment bank Goldman Sachs "super spike" report found limited support when it first appeared in March and US crude was trading around $US54, but the possibility of oil surging as high as $US105 has gained currency.
"I don't know about the next quarter or even next year. . . But it will go over $US100 a barrel, but I've no idea how long it's going to take to reach there," commodities guru Jim Rogers, a former business partner of billionaire fund manager George Soros, said last week.
As the world struggles to pump and refine enough crude oil to satisfy US gas guzzlers and voracious consumers in Asia, $US70 oil may be but a few trading days away.
"I don't think it's crazy to think the price would spike up to $US75," said Deborah White, senior economist at SG Commodities.
"Most of us are resigned to the fact we may see prices equivalent to the highest in real terms."
That day may not be far off with prices well within reach of the inflation-adjusted $US82 a barrel reached in 1980, the year after the Iranian revolution.
US gasoline prices were about $US3 a gallon (3.78 litres) then compared to current levels of about $US2.60.
Goldman Sachs said earlier that US gasoline prices might need to exceed $US4 a gallon, which implies crude at about $US135 a barrel, before demand starts to erode. Other analysts agree.
"US motorists will moan about pump prices, but it will take weeks or months before we see a considerable impact on demand," said Pyne.
"High crude prices so far have not slowed economic growth appreciably, and they're only beginning to affect oil demand at the margin."
But others argue that high oil prices are starting to dent consumption, leaving little scope for a sustained period of prices above $US70.
Strong US inflation and an earnings warning from the world's biggest retailer Wal-Mart last week highlighted market concerns that soaring crude prices were beginning to take an economic toll.
"None of the analysis we've done on fundamentals would support a $US100 price, certainly not on a sustainable basis," said Julian Lee of the Centre for Global Energy Studies.
"High prices are quite clearly having an effect on demand growth and we expect it to ease further next year."
A Reuters poll of industry analysts this week showed the mean average of oil price forecasts for 2006 rising above $US50 for the first time.
The findings of the survey of 28 analysts forecast US crude averaging $US50.49 a barrel in 2006, with Goldman having the highest forecast of $US6
Win patrol is another free program that might help keep the scum out of your puter.
Scumbags can make their garbage look like it is associated with a windows program.If you have the same type of popups occurring no matter what site you are on then your puter is infected.Update your scanning programs before you run them.I also like a program called crap cleaner.Its free and its really fast.Some people complain it is too agressive but it has done me no harm.
Bruce,laptop problem.I have an inspiron 5000.When I push the power button sometimes the LED lights come on but the puter doesnt light up.Then,if I flex the computer caseing it starts up.Am I right to think there is a bad connection inside and the puter needs to be to be taken apart?
Re: Significance of the latest COT repor
by: Casual_Techwatcher 08/21/05 01:43 pm
Msg: 576000 of 576131
"COT position is nothing more than a coincident indicator reported several days after the fact.....
Maybe large spec positons have some meaning when they are in the extreme, but I fail to see how you can garner anything predictive out of the commercial net positions."
the tape reader:
You are right that COT position is nothing more than a coincidence indicator. You may treat it kind of like stochastics, which goes up as prices go up and vice versa.
What's significant are the extreme points when turns occur. Stats shows that price extremes occur when commercial shorts also hit an extreme over 150K, but it cannot timely pinpoint the exact extreme. It does not say that price extreme happens the first instance COT gets above 150K. e.g. COT can have 155K, 175K, 192K in succession, then goes to 166K, 137K.........Well, once it turns down from above 150K, chances are that the price extreme has also occurred. Nothing is absolute, but probability of that occurrence has risen significantly.
The latest COT is at 193K, way above the historical benchmark of price extreme area. Now, with the POG's setback of over 10 bucks from the most recent highs, and the anticipated drop in COT #'s, I think that combination carries an 80% probability that we have seen an interim peak in POG. It is like stochastics turning down from overbot area while prices turn down from an interim high. That's why I keep insisting that absolute levels of COT's are not that important, but the direction of the flow is of utmost significance.
JMHO
Casual Techwatcher
8/21/05
Maybe some of the "tweaks " I have done to XP have caused this problem with locating drivers?When I first got XP I went to this site
http://www.monroeworld.com/pchelp/xptweaks.php
Success(I think).I wrote the driver folder onto a CD and then my blind sob puter was able to stumble upon it.
Success(I think).I wrote the driver folder onto a CD and then my blind sob puter was able to stumble upon it.
No I have version 104.Also I have java turned off.
The folder just says WINXP-2K.There is no exe.When I double click it there are about 60 files.
Is this the problem?I need to download a folder that is marked exe?
This is what is driving me nuts.The option search only allows two options which are drive C or drive D.
What am I doing wrong?I bought an Epson Stylus C45 printer.It didnt have a driver CD.I downloaded drivers from the Epson site.They are sitting in a folder on my desktop.But my sob XP puter refuses to find them.I have tried every which way to install them and at times the puter identifies the printer but it will not find the drivers.
Durn,Ihub wont let me post using firefox.What the heck??????
Comex open interests at record 360K
by: Casual_Techwatcher 11/25/04 07:55 pm
Msg: 471379 of 471417
Previously, whenever open interests reached slightly over 300K, POG invariably peaked out. This time around, possibly with the impact of ETF-GLD, open interests surged to 360K and yet POG has not shown signs of topping. One side has to give, probably big time.
With the continuing weakness in the greenback, given the record commercial short positions, it would be difficult for the dealers to continue extending their shorts. If interest continues to be strong behind GLD in coming days/weeks, the gold market may reach an inflection point with historical implications ---- massive dealer and commercial shortcovering which could turn into the mother of all shortcoverings.
That is one of the main reasons I reversed my shorts to longs earlier today at the London fixing market.
Two things bear close watching: US$ and volume in GLD.
Be vigilant of the possibility of a massive short squeeze in POG, even still remote at this juncture.
Do your own D/D as to how it might effect the miners.
JMHO
Casual Techwatcher
11/25/04
GLD's 930,000 oz offtake as of Monday
by: Casual_Techwatcher 11/24/04 02:42 pm
Msg: 470776 of 470784
Let's examine the newly issued ETF-GLD.
I think the Reuters report that I posted an hour ago has more validity. ie. as of closing on Monday, a total of $419 mil were taken in, representing an offtake of around 930,000 oz of gold.
930,000 oz = 2.6 tonnes
That's a lot of gold bullion.
I think that offtake has been largely responsible for the recent steadiness in POG despite continuous reluctance of miners to move up.
As inititial interest wanes in the ETF-GLD in coming days, I suspect a correction in POG would commence.
Technicals in NEM, XAU, and HUI have been deteriorating for a few days already ---> a precursor to a drop in POG in coming days.
JMHO
CT
Re: Some info wrt ETF-GLD
by: Casual_Techwatcher 11/24/04 01:08 pm
Msg: 470676 of 470698
According to Reuters, as of close on Monday, ETF-GLD has taken in $419 mil or equivalent to around 930,000 oz of gold offtake.
930,000 oz = around 26 tonnes of gold
.... a far cry from xerox zeno's mis-reported 100 tonnes of gold..............
Posted as a reply to: Msg 470653 by Casual_Techwatcher
Reuters to launch desktop trading platform next year
19.11.2004
LONDON - Global news and information provider Reuters has unveiled plans to enable banks, brokers and fund managers to buy and sell stocks and bonds over its desktop products in the first quarter of next year.
The electronic trading platform is Reuters' first major growth initiative since chief executive Tom Glocer implemented a three-year restructuring plan, known as Fast Forward, in February last year. The plan so far has focused primarily on cutting costs.
The new service is a move by Reuters to compete with its rival Bloomberg in the fixed-income market, where Bloomberg has an established bond trading platform.
"I don't think we've been effective competitors in fixed income for a while and this is the opening shot," said Devin Wenig, Reuters executive director and one of the main architects of the electronic trading initiative.
"The market wants choice in fixed income, and we're going straight for that."
The Reuters service eventually expects to provide real-time executable prices on more than 12,000 fixed-income securities in 21 currencies.
The electronic trading capability will be available on Reuters 3000 Xtra, Reuters Station and Reuters Trader products.
- REUTERS
Looks like todays game is called NFLX.
Is the short squeeze over?Anyone shorting here?
Windows 2000 instal
http://www.trustprice.com/as/search_results.cfm/Search=SearchHotdeal/groupidpw=MS_WIN_2000
My W98 puter continues to have a glitch which causes it to freeze.I am thinking it might be relatively inexpensive to try W2000pro and see if that fixes it.Can someone take a look at the site above and confirm that I need a license @ $30 plus a CD @ $9 plus tax with free shipping.
Is it worth a try?Any opinions?
DJ Gold Could Fall In Wake Of Buying For New ETFs - Mitsui
(Repeating)
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--The price of gold could fall once the effect of buying
associated with the coming launch of two U.S. gold-backed exchange-traded
funds subsides, according to a leading analyst with Mitsui Global Precious
Metals.
"The elephant tracks of pre-U.S. launch buying are easily detectable all
over the place," said Mitsui's Andy Smith in a weekly note, estimating that
the funds' sponsors may have already bought as much as 460 tons of physical
gold.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly close to agreeing
to the launch of the two funds, with the World Gold Council's 'streetTRACKS'
Gold Trust expected to be trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the
symbol "GLD" within days.
The second ETF, from Barclays Global Investors, will be known as the
iShares Comex Gold Trust and will trade on the American Stock Exchange under
the symbol "IAU". It is expected to be launched soon after 'streetTRACKS'.
Both funds are based on similar products already trading in Australia, the
United Kingdom and South Africa. They are designed to give U.S. investors the
opportunity to invest in shares backed by actual physical gold, thus
providing exposure to the gold price, but without requiring actual custody of
the metal, which can sometimes be costly.
The new ETFs are being launched amid strong interest in gold given that the
yellow metal has posted a series of successive 16-year highs in recent days.
But Smith noted that the fund sponsors themselves have warned in their SEC
submissions of a "pre-delivery impact" on prices, suggesting gold may have
been driven artificially higher in recent weeks.
For instance, the World Gold Trust explained to investors that "purchasing
activity associated with acquiring the gold required for deposit into the
Trust...may temporarily increase the market price of gold."
Smith arrived at the 460 tons figure by assuming that both new U.S. funds
had, in deciding how much gold to purchase, separately multiplied the amount
of gold digested by the British version by five. This multiple accounts for
the proportion by which the population of the U.S. exceeds that of the U.K.,
he said.
The London-listed version, known as Gold Bullion Securities, has to date
absorbed 46 tons of gold.
Smith surmised that the ETF sponsors have already bought something
approaching 460 tons of gold, placed some in Comex warehouses, hedged some or
most of their price risk with near-dated put options, and purchased longer
dated calls against their hopes of sustained interest in the new funds.
"This physical and call buying would partly explain why gold charged
onward... through a clear U.S. election result (wasn't a stalemate the long
gold bet?) and very strong U.S. jobs numbers (enough to pause gold's rampage
all this year)," he explained in his report.
But Smith said that if gold begins to fall, the call-related buying might
switch to selling. "And, potentially, the 400-plus tons already pre-
purchased begins to shrink like an elephant that's seen a mouse. Add this
wobbly long to the 716 tons worth of net speculator longs on Comex, futures
and options, and Tocom, and you have a stampede not to stand in front of," he
warned.
At 0824 GMT, spot gold was quoted at US$442.65 a troy ounce.
-By Nicholas Sinclair, Dow Jones Newswires; 612-8235-2957;
nicholas.sinclair@dowjones.com
-Edited by Hilary Mc Cully
DJ Gold Could Fall In Wake Of Buying For New ETFs - Mitsui
(Repeating)
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--The price of gold could fall once the effect of buying
associated with the coming launch of two U.S. gold-backed exchange-traded
funds subsides, according to a leading analyst with Mitsui Global Precious
Metals.
"The elephant tracks of pre-U.S. launch buying are easily detectable all
over the place," said Mitsui's Andy Smith in a weekly note, estimating that
the funds' sponsors may have already bought as much as 460 tons of physical
gold.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly close to agreeing
to the launch of the two funds, with the World Gold Council's 'streetTRACKS'
Gold Trust expected to be trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the
symbol "GLD" within days.
The second ETF, from Barclays Global Investors, will be known as the
iShares Comex Gold Trust and will trade on the American Stock Exchange under
the symbol "IAU". It is expected to be launched soon after 'streetTRACKS'.
Both funds are based on similar products already trading in Australia, the
United Kingdom and South Africa. They are designed to give U.S. investors the
opportunity to invest in shares backed by actual physical gold, thus
providing exposure to the gold price, but without requiring actual custody of
the metal, which can sometimes be costly.
The new ETFs are being launched amid strong interest in gold given that the
yellow metal has posted a series of successive 16-year highs in recent days.
But Smith noted that the fund sponsors themselves have warned in their SEC
submissions of a "pre-delivery impact" on prices, suggesting gold may have
been driven artificially higher in recent weeks.
For instance, the World Gold Trust explained to investors that "purchasing
activity associated with acquiring the gold required for deposit into the
Trust...may temporarily increase the market price of gold."
Smith arrived at the 460 tons figure by assuming that both new U.S. funds
had, in deciding how much gold to purchase, separately multiplied the amount
of gold digested by the British version by five. This multiple accounts for
the proportion by which the population of the U.S. exceeds that of the U.K.,
he said.
The London-listed version, known as Gold Bullion Securities, has to date
absorbed 46 tons of gold.
Smith surmised that the ETF sponsors have already bought something
approaching 460 tons of gold, placed some in Comex warehouses, hedged some or
most of their price risk with near-dated put options, and purchased longer
dated calls against their hopes of sustained interest in the new funds.
"This physical and call buying would partly explain why gold charged
onward... through a clear U.S. election result (wasn't a stalemate the long
gold bet?) and very strong U.S. jobs numbers (enough to pause gold's rampage
all this year)," he explained in his report.
But Smith said that if gold begins to fall, the call-related buying might
switch to selling. "And, potentially, the 400-plus tons already pre-
purchased begins to shrink like an elephant that's seen a mouse. Add this
wobbly long to the 716 tons worth of net speculator longs on Comex, futures
and options, and Tocom, and you have a stampede not to stand in front of," he
warned.
At 0824 GMT, spot gold was quoted at US$442.65 a troy ounce.
-By Nicholas Sinclair, Dow Jones Newswires; 612-8235-2957;
nicholas.sinclair@dowjones.com
-Edited by Hilary Mc Cully
yes,what does that dope know? eom
Human extinction within 100 years warns scientist
17 November 2004
By JOHN HENZELL
A top New Zealand researcher is using a prestigious award ceremony in Christchurch to warn that humans face extinction by the end of the century.
Professor Peter Barrett will be presented with the Marsden Medal tonight for his 40-year contribution to Antarctic research, latterly focusing on climate change.
The director of Victoria University's Antarctic Research Centre expects to use his acceptance speech to warn climate change was a major threat to the planet.
"After 40 years, I'm part of a huge community of scientists who have become alarmed with our discovery, that we know from our knowledge of the ancient past, that if we continue our present growth path, we are facing extinction," Barrett said. "Not in millions of years, or even millennia, but by the end of this century."
Barrett won the award – designed to mark lifetime achievement in the sciences – for his research into Antarctica, which began with helping prove New Zealand was once part of the Gondwanaland supercontinent.
He then changed disciplines, to predicting the impact of climate change. The result was a body of research on Antarctic ice sheets "which to our surprise is becoming increasingly relevant to the world as a consequence of global warming".
Barrett's warning underlines comments he made last year that even the Kyoto Protocol on global warming would not be enough to avert a climate disaster. The United States and Australia have refused to adopt Kyoto protocol measures.
"Research on the past Antarctic climate has an ominous warning for the future ..." he said.
"We need an international commitment to an effective solution, if we are to survive the worst consequences of this grandest of all human experiments."
Heh heh.GM finance discovers the "two for one " deal?eom
No I have never seen her on NBR.She appears on public TV a lot when they are begging for donations to maintain their plush studios.
Thanks,thats pretty darn interesting....eom
Yes,wish I knew how.......eom
Suzie Ormond sold out.
I just saw her on TV urging us dopes to buy Chevys on credit.
No it didnt get as far as an attempt on my account.It was an attempt to sucker me.And my fear is that they somehow had some idea where to look for me.
Phising.I hope you guys are right.I have received the citibank spams.But getting the "bank and trust" one soon after I had done online banking makes me very suspicious that the bastards are further ahead than we think.
AVG 6 was finding CABEDIAL.DLL in my puter but unable to do anything about it.I just upgraded to AVG 7 and it looks like that fixed the problem.If it was just a dialer it wouldnt have been able to dial out on my DSL,but who knows what it was.
How do the bastards do it?
I recently visited my account at the something bank and trust.I do not have the site bookmarked.I use firefox and I clean up afterwards.Today I get spam in my bulk Yahoo folder urging me to click on the link to the "banking and trust company".
****oil related******
HOUSTON - A team of market forecasters that correctly predicted the oil bust of the 1980s thinks history will not repeat itself, at least for now.
They were voices in the wilderness, belittled and shunned when they formed a distinct minority forecasting gloomy times for the oil business as the 1980s dawned.
They were right about a looming bust, of course, and now avenged forecasters Barton Smith, Dale Steffes and Henry Groppe basically agree again on where the barrel price is headed.
No bust this time, they say.
"I think the real key is the peaking of world oil production," said Groppe, a partner with Groppe, Long & Littell, who has consulted the industry for a half century.
"In this new environment, the key question is what the price is going to be required in future years to cause enough demand destruction to match the total available supply. We think it's US$50 or above on a year-round average."
Smith, a University of Houston economist, also believes producer fears another late 1990s-style price collapse is highly unlikely.
"That's not in the works," he said. "I think the bottom line is, for most of the 1990s we had unusually low prices. The problem with the American consumer is, you give them a break and rather than say, 'Thank goodness,' they take it as their eternal right."
That said, Smith believes "speculative fever" that pushed oil over the US$55 per barrel mark "probably was excessive." He thinks a US$35 floor is likely and reasonable.
"It's plenty stimulative enough to keep the exploration side going, but it will certainly be a break from the current (high-price) tax we're facing."
Steffes, who became known as the "Cassandra of crude" for his prophecy of cheap oil by the mid-1980s, also agrees there's no bust in the offing.
"We are going to sustain them for a period yet," Steffes said. "What hasn't happened since we got to US$50 oil, the exploration people hasn't come in yet and the conservation people haven't come in yet. Neither side has believed in US$50 oil.
"When those two sides decide to do something, it's going to fall back, mostly likely. But before then, my judgment is that it will go to US$70 ... with a severe disruption."
Steffes notes the laundry list for disruptive possibilities is lengthy considering where most production occurs nowadays.
A major difference in today's oil market forecasting from the pre-bust era is that unpredictability is now part of the landscape. Then, forecasters who saw anything besides the accepted norm were ridiculed, especially in oil hub Houston.
"We encountered lots of hostility from the heads of oil companies and everybody in the business," said Groppe, whose firm forecast sub-US$15 prices for 1985. "The official US Department of Energy forecast was US$100 a barrel. Exxon's forecast was at US$80 a barrel, Shell was at US$85 a barrel.
"We stuck to our guns and we turned out to be right."
Human nature is to take the current environment and use it to predict forward trends. Groppe said he prefers to break the market down to fundamentals and work from the bottom up.
"You have to think in discontinuous terms, and that requires a lot of continuing work and thought," he said.
The three don't agree in lock-step. Where Groppe is among those who believe world oil production is close to peaking if it hasn't already, Smith believes there is plenty of undiscovered crude out there.
Getting to it is the tricky part.
"Where do you go exploring for oil today? The choices are between bads -- Where's the least-bad place you can look for oil?" Smith said. "There's plenty out there if you can overcome the instability and political problems."
- REUTERS
W98 Hibernate
My W98 laptop is freezing up couple of times every day.Dell diagnostics can find nothing wrong.On startup the puter warns that there is no hibernate suspend to disk file.Since I use the puter as a desktop I have not bothered to re create the file.Can anyone confirm that this would have nothing to do with the puter freezing.
One thing I wonder about.With the old hard drive the puter would take a minute for normal shutdown.With the new hard drive it takes five seconds.