Dave's Daily: Mixed Bag Market

03/02/10 - 06:32 PM ES

By Dave Fry, founder and publisher of ETF Digest and author of the best-selling book Create Your Own ETF Hedge Fund.

Tuesday markets rallied higher on momentum from the previous session. Positive auto sales were about the only news on the day driving stock prices higher figuratively and literally.

Selling took hold later in the session as investors perhaps became cautious ahead of important economic data being released Wednesday-Friday.

Volume was again relatively light while breadth positive.


charts http://www.thestreet.com/story/10693759/1/daves-daily-mixed-bag-market.html?kval=dontmiss

Prolly a coinsidence though.........

TSTC*UVV*PRGO*>Proven Small-Cap Winners: Under the Radar

The following small-cap stocks have risen more than their benchmarks since TheStreet.com highlighted them in articles during the past three months.

3. Leaf-tobacco merchant Universal Corp.(UVV Quote) suffered a 14% drop in fiscal third-quarter profit to $46 million, or $1.54 a share, as revenue contracted 5.4% to $661 million. Its operating margin narrowed from 11% to 10%. The stock has soared 17% since we recommended it in our Dec. 22 article Three Unloved Dividend-Paying Stocks.

Universal is still cheap at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10. Its PEG ratio, a measure of value relative to growth, of 0.4 represents a 52% discount to the tobacco-industry average. A PEG ratio below 1 implies cheap shares. Universal offers a dividend yield of 3.5% coupled with a safe payout ratio of 35%.

2. Chinese communications-equipment maker Telestone Technologies(TSTC Quote) has not yet disclosed its fourth-quarter results. The company has a market value of just $184 million, but a record of outstanding growth and stock performance. During the past three years, Telestone has increased revenue 39% annually, on average, and boosted profit 34% a year. Its stock delivered 33% annualized gains over that period.

The shares are cheap relative to those of communications-equipment peers based on trailing earnings and book value. Telestone enjoys a net profit margin of 22%. Its stock has jumped 20% since our Feb. 9 article A Google 'Do-Over'.

1. Over-the-counter drug maker Perrigo(PRGO Quote) more than doubled fiscal second-quarter profit to $51 million, or 57 cents a share, as revenue expanded 8.6% to $583 million. The operating margin widened from 12% to 17%. During the past three years, Perrigo has propelled revenue 15% annually, on average, and expanded profit 40% a year.

Good morning world :)

LOL That's one of the first things I noticed. :)

All the time I'm sure. LOL

Not only work well but the plays are safe. Where do you find that in a penny stock I ask?
I don't know about you..but when I play a regular penny (or even a big board stock now days) I can't leave the computer for a minute without wondering if it'll dump while I'm in the kitchen. These plays you can walk away from for days if you need to and know that you will just come back to more green. :).

Oh NO!!!! Please..not that.

It is automated. See volume short it. They have no clue what they are getting themselves into now.

Here is a letter from Monk about the Monk Effect. :)

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=45578589

Glad to be here. :) It's about time I showed up somewhere good. LOL

Post Unavailable

Additional Information

LOL that'd be something I would say but I don't know him well enough. Hahahaha

worked :)

I know that. :) It's why I jumped in yesterday morning no questions asked.
But there seems to be quite a few still who swear by the pump and dump plays and prefer to fight the dilution than to take part in a team effort with a good company and share structure.

OMG I almost blew my coffee out of my nose on that one. LMFAO

I do know alot of chartists are looking and on the sidelines still. I was lucky enough to be able to get in first thing yesterday morning. Going to let it sit and perculate, add more when I can. :)

I wasn't watching the L2 but I'm thinking just some profit taking today and not a whole lot either. Very good day all in all. :)

LOL didn't wanna sound like I was pumping. But yes, impending news will only make matters worse for the MM's. :)

After the explosive move it had Friday and Yesterday I would have to say that a day of rest was in order. And knowing the strength that is still behind this pps I would have to say that tomorrow or the next we will begin to see it resume it's upward travels. :)

Afternoon Headlines>

NEWS


04:45PM La Polar Tumbles as Looters Burn Down Chilean Retailer's Store After Quake
04:45PM Bristol-Myers CEO to retire; COO to succeed him (AP)
04:43PM Postal Service's emerging model: Never on Saturday (AP)
04:43PM Apple suing phone maker HTC over iPhone patents (AP)
04:43PM Feds weighing brake overrides in all new cars (AP)
04:43PM Talks on bank regs zero in on consumer protections (AP)
04:43PM Greek PM says more painful spending cuts needed (AP)
04:43PM More merger activity helps lift stocks for 3rd day (AP)
04:43PM Toyota's pain is rivals' sales gain in February (AP)
04:43PM AstraZeneca shuffles, eliminates Del. R&D jobs (AP)
04:39PM Stocks, Crude Oil Advance on Economic Optimism; Pound Falls for Sixth Day
04:33PM Prospect of rate hikes boosts Canadian dollar
04:28PM Defense Chief Gates Seeks `Comprehensive' Review of Military Rule on Gays
04:27PM New OTC swaps rules must apply to all: CFTC's Dunn
04:23PM Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks edge higher as investors gear for data
04:23PM Wall St edges up on M&A cheer
04:20PM Stocks in U.S. Advance as Greece Budget Concern Eases, Takeovers Increase
04:19PM Retail Stocks: Staples leads retail shares lower
04:18PM Bristol-Myers Names Andreotti CEO to Replace Cornelius Upon May Retirement
04:17PM Ford tops GM in U.S. for first time in 12 years
04:16PM Chile Quake May Be Insurers' Second-Costliest in History After Northridge
04:16PM Markets Struggle as Trading Day Nears an End
04:10PM Corporate recovery could take investors by surprise
04:08PM Treasurys fall on Fed official's comments
04:08PM Ford's U.S. Sales Win Is First Since 1998 as GM Shakes Up Marketing Team
04:08PM Staples sees a careful customer as outlook misses
04:08PM Corrections: RBC's prior forecast for euro
04:07PM Ford's U.S. Sales Win Is First Since 1998 as GM Shuffles Marketing Leaders
04:07PM Venezuela's Recession Deepens as Most of Latin America Resumes Expansion
04:07PM Corrections: Euro dubbed 'worst-performing currency' by RBC
04:06PM Capitol Report: What the heck is reconciliation?
04:00PM Bond Report: Treasurys recover, with eyes on Greece's plans
03:55PM Most U.S. Stocks Advance as Greece Concern Eases; Technology Shares Slide
03:54PM Microsoft's Ballmer lauds Twitter's independence
03:51PM Pfizer Said to Offer Up to $4.08 Billion for Merckle Family's Ratiopharm
03:49PM Disney plays bully in dispute, says Cablevision CEO
03:48PM Stocks in U.S. Trim Gains, Dow Retreats as Microsoft, Intel Shares Decline
03:46PM General Growth Is Biased Toward `Risky' Brookfield Proposal, Creditors Say
03:45PM Biotech Stocks: Sequenom, CombinatoRx lead drug stocks north
03:43PM GFI Sues Tradition Unit for Damages After Derivative Brokers' Defections
03:41PM Frank Says Putting Consumer Agency at Fed Is `Joke' as Senators Near Deal
03:38PM Berkshire Workforce Reductions Led by Fruit of the Loom, Shaw Carpet Maker
03:36PM Republican McConnell Says Compromise May End Fight Over Jobless Benefits
03:34PM EPA Greenhouse-Gas Regulation Would Be Blocked by House Republicans' Plans
03:31PM Microsoft Says Its Operating Expenses May Increase as Much as 5% Next Year
03:29PM Chile's Peso Gains Most in Emerging Markets on Reconstruction Speculation
03:29PM At Auto Show, Carmakers Put Up a Good Front
03:27PM Atlanta May Get 3 Inches of Snow, New York Almost None in East Coast Storm
03:27PM Kocherlakota: Fed must be careful on tightening timing
03:25PM U.S. auto sales weak
03:22PM Greece Set to Release Austerity Plan
03:16PM Senator Rockefeller Wants Two-Year Delay for EPA Greenhouse Gas Regulation
03:14PM News Analysis: U.K. Teeters on the Brink of Its Own Greek Tragedy
03:13PM Murdoch doubts N.Y. Times Slim sale speculation
03:13PM Oil prices rise on weaker dollar
03:12PM Qualcomm Says Second-Quarter Sales, Profit to Be at High End of Forecasts
03:11PM Stocks cling to gains
03:09PM BP Eyes Refining-Profit Lift
03:06PM Brake Overrides in New Cars May Be Sought After Toyota Recall, LaHood Says
03:04PM Drought Threatens Syria's Economy as 300,000 Families Flee Parched Farms
02:55PM General Growth creditors, Simon attack Ackman

Not getting even one of mine for quite some time. :)

midnight trader>Equities Advance Slightly After Volatile Session
by: Midnight Trader March 02, 2010 | about: CF / DIA / QQQQ / SPY / TRA

4:21 PM, Mar 2, 2010 --

* NYSE up 35.2 (0.5%) to 7,135.97.
* DJIA up 2 (0.02%) to 10,406.
* S&P 500 up 2.6 (0.2%) to 1,118.
* Nasdaq up 7 (0.3%) to 2,281.


GLOBAL SENTIMENT

* Hang Seng down 0.72%
* Nikkei up 0.49%
* FTSE up 1.45%


UPSIDE MOVERS

(+) TRA gets $47.40 offer from CF Industries.

(+) DELL gets analyst upgrade.

(+) CTB beats with Q4 results.

(+) CSR misses with Q4, guidance straddles.

(+) PSTI gets DSMB approval to advance to final dose level with PLX-PAD.

(+) YGE inks sales pact with SunDurance Energy.

(+) DPZ beats with Q4.

(+) CRXX says FDA OKs new drug application for Exalgo.

DOWNSIDE MOVERS

(-) NUHC loses Xilinx distribution pact.

(-) KMB gets downgrade.

(-) NTRI continues evening slide after earnings beat but cautious comments for Q1.

(-) SPLS misses by a penny, offers mixed guidance.

MARKET DIRECTION

The major stock averages end well off earlier highs though salvaging a positive finish that allows the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to remain in positive territory for 2010. The DJIA had crossed into negative ground inside the final half hour of the session. Early gains on deal news and Greece developments ran into cautious selling ahead of Friday's jobs report.

The three major indexes rose to their highest levels in more than a month yesterday, after corporate deals raised lifted optimism about a global economic recovery. The Dow hit its highest level since Jan. 20. The S&P 500 rose 1% to move into positive territory for the year.

The global market got a boost after Japan reported that its unemployment rate fell for the second straight month in January on top of an uptick in household spending. Australia's central bank pared stimulus measures and increased a key interest rate to 4%, both signs that its economy is rebounding. Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 0.5%, and Britain's FTSE 100 gained 1%.

Domestically, action on Capital Hill could sway the markets as lawmakers craft new banking regulations. Senate negotiators are said to be close to a deal that would create a new consumer protection agency within the Federal Reserve. The House has passed a bill that would create a separate entity to regulate everything from credit cards to mortgages.

Most investors will probably move cautiously until the Labor Department's employment report is released Friday. The jobless rate is expected to hit 9.8%, rising from last month's slight decline to 9.7% in January. A disappointing result could bring out the bears.

Dealmaking continues to be a market driver.

CF Industries (CF) provided some of the lift after making another offer for fertilizer maker Terra Industries (TRA), which last month agreed to be sold to Norway's Yara for $4.1 billion. CF Industries is now offering $37.15 in cash and 0.0953 of a share of CF common stock for each Terra share, bringing the deal to about $4.72 billion in cash and stock. CF previously offered $36.75 and 0.1034 a share.

I know I don't have a problem with the taste of the koolaid here. :)

tpc>MARKET WRAP – THE RALLY CONTINUES
2 March 2010 by TPC

The relentless move higher continued today as equities advanced by0.2%. Stocks did close well off their highs, however, as some of the enthusiasm was sapped from the market as the day wore on. Equities have surged 7% in a little over 3 weeks, but remain range-bound when taking a longer perspective. Volume was remarkably low at well under a billion shares at the NYSE. Breadth was fairly strong, however, at 2:1. Fear has rapidly been replaced with complacency as the fears of three weeks ago are now largely forgotten. As we mentioned earlier in the day the VIX marked its 14th losing day in the last 15 – an unprecedented trend since the March 2009 rally began.

From Daily Futures:

U.S. Economy
General Motors said that U.S. vehicle sales were up 12% in February from a year ago, less than expected. Ford’s U.S. sales were up 43% in February from a year ago.

Grains and Cotton
Did cotton go too far, too fast? May cotton closed down 1.44 cents at 81.85.

May soybean oil closed up .34 at 40.24, the highest close in seven weeks with little explanation in the news.

Livestock
Beef demand must be improving. June cattle have gained over 7 cents in less than three months and closed up .65 today at 91.25, the highest in nine months.

Lumber
Canada’s Mortgage and Housing Corporation said that it expects roughly 170,000 housing starts in 2010, up from 149,081 in 2009. May lumber was up $1.90 at $267.50.

Energies
May crude oil closed up .98 at $80.06, helped by a general perception that the world economy is improving and by a growing hope that Greece’s debt problems are manageable.

Yesterday’s 6 to 10 day forecast from the National Weather Service is expecting above average temperatures for the northeastern U.S. May natural gas ended up 2.9 cents at $4.775.

Metals
May copper closed up 6.15 cents at $3.4115, the highest close in six weeks, while some copper mines are still said to be down after Chile’s earthquake on Friday.

April gold jumped up $19.10 to $1,136.90, the highest close in five weeks with ongoing support from the Federal Reserve’s low interest rate policy.

Currencies – Positive Surprise in Japan
Japan’s Statistics Bureau said that the unemployment rate improved from 5.2% to 4.9% in January, the lowest in ten months and much better than expected. The economy showed an increase of 540,000 jobs, the biggest monthly gain since 1973. Also, household spending was up 1.7% in January. The March yen closed up .0050 at 1.1280, the highest close in eleven weeks.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its interest rate from 3.75% to 4.00%, as some expected, the fourth increase in the past twelve months. The March Australian dollar finished up .32 at 90.27, the highest close in five weeks.

The Bank of Canada met and kept its interest rate unchanged at .25%, as expected. However, the Bank adjusted its view of inflation risk from ‘downward’ to ‘roughly balanced’ and that led some to believe that an increase in rates may be coming, possibly this summer. The March Canadian dollar closed up a half-cent at 96.53, the highest close in five weeks.

Eurostat said that it expects consumer prices in the Euro area to have risen .9% in February from a year ago.

The Bank of Montreal said that it earned $657 million in the quarter that ended on January 31st, up from a $225 million profit a year ago. The Bank’s lending operations made $403 million and they also noted signs of improvement in the midwestern U.S.
\
http://pragcap.com/market-wrap-the-rally-continues

BTU International reports Q4 EPS 42c vs. consensus of 16c

Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE): Q4 EPS of $0.04 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $42M (-30%) vs. $41M. Shares +2.9% AH.

Tomorrow before the open companies to report:

BIG, BJ, BWS, CSIQ, CMED, COST, DIN, JOYG, LINC, LOJN, MFB, NNI, NZ, POZN, RIMG

Better to be laughing than crying like the MMs are now. LOL

Pfizer (PFE -0.8%) is bidding as much as 3B euros ($4.08B) for German generic-drug maker Ratiopharm, sources say. An acquisition could expand Pfizer’s generic business to about $11B, nearing Teva's (TEVA +0.6%) $13.9B in 2009 revenue.

NOVL $4.75> Elliott Offers to Acquire Novell
Offer Price Represents a 49% Premium to Enterprise Value, 115% Premium to "Unaffected" Enterprise Value, 20% Premium over Latest Closing Price

Elliott Associates, L.P. (together with funds under common management), a significant institutional stockholder of Novell, Inc. (Nasdaq:NOVL - News), today offered to purchase the entire company for $5.75 per share in cash, which implies an enterprise value net of cash of $1.0 billion. The firm sent the following letter to the Board of Directors of the Company explaining its offer:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Elliott-Offers-to-Acquire-prnews-2538502458.html?x=0&.v=1




March 2, 2010


The Board of Directors


Novell, Inc.


404 Wyman Street, Suite 500


Waltham, MA 02451


Attention: Richard Crandall, Chairman


Attention: Ron Hovsepian, Chief Executive Officer



Dear Members of the Board of Directors:

I write to you on behalf of Elliott Associates, L.P. and Elliott International, L.P., which collectively own, or have an interest economically equivalent to, 8.5% of the common stock of Novell and are currently one of the Company's largest stockholders. Elliott is a multi-strategy investment firm with over $16 billion in assets under management focused on employing detailed research to address complex investment situations.

Based on our detailed review of the Company's publicly available information and our substantial knowledge of the software industry, we are pleased to submit this proposal to acquire all of the shares of common stock of Novell for a cash price of $5.75 per share. This price represents a premium of 49% over the Company's current enterprise value and 77% over the Company's 90-day volume-weighted average enterprise value. As the Company's cash balance of nearly $1.0 billion represents almost 60% of its current market capitalization, we believe that a premium to enterprise value represents the most meaningful measure of the value that our proposal offers stockholders, valuing the Company's cash at 100 cents on the dollar despite the fact that a significant portion of that cash is overseas and may not be realized in a tax efficient manner. Importantly, this price represents a premium of 115% over the Company's enterprise value on January 4, 2010, the last trading day before we commenced actively acquiring Novell's common stock This price also represents a 37% premium to Novell's closing stock price on January 4, 2010 and a 20% premium to Novell's closing stock price yesterday. By any measure, we believe our proposal represents a compelling opportunity that your stockholders will find extremely attractive.

Novell is a long-established company that we have followed closely for a considerable period of time. Over the past several years, the Company has attempted to diversify away from its legacy division with a series of acquisitions and changes in strategic focus that have largely been unsuccessful. As a result, we believe the Company's stock has meaningfully underperformed all relevant indices and peers. With over 33 years of experience in investing in public and private companies and an extensive track record of successfully structuring and executing acquisitions in the technology space, we believe that Elliott is uniquely situated to deliver maximum value to the Company's stockholders on an expedited basis.

Our proposal is subject to a confirmatory due diligence review of the Company and negotiation of definitive documentation. We are available to sign an appropriate confidentiality agreement and commence our due diligence review immediately. Elliott is prepared to devote considerable resources to completing this transaction and we are confident that, with your cooperation, we will be in a position to execute a definitive transaction agreement on an expedited basis. While we intend to work with financing sources, obtaining financing is neither a condition of our proposal nor a condition to completing the transaction.

We are prepared to meet immediately with you and your advisors in order to answer any questions about our proposal and to work out the details for moving toward a definitive transaction agreement. We also look forward to discussing with management its role with us going forward.

Of course, nothing in this letter is intended to create a legally binding obligation and no such obligation will exist unless and until a definitive transaction agreement is executed. As a result of our substantial share ownership in Novell, SEC rules oblige us to make the existence and contents of this letter public. Please feel free to contact me at (212) 506-2999 to discuss or clarify any aspect of this proposal.

On behalf of Elliott, we are very much looking forward to working closely with the talented employees of Novell to bring the Company forward to its next phase of growth.

Very truly yours,


sig/


Jesse A. Cohn


Portfolio Manager

Scraggly old broad with 5 coffee cups and an overflowing ashtray on my desk..........

And I just sold this back in January :(

LVLT Level 3 awarded Federal broadband stimulus grant funding

The broad stock indices finished slightly higher today, as advancing issues led declining issues on the NYSE by 2.1 to 1. Among individual stocks, the two top percentage gainers in the S&P 500 were Qualcomm (QCOM +6.7%) and Tesoro (TSO +5.1%)

PDL BioPharma (PDLI): Q4 EPS of $0.17 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $58.3M (-15%) vs. $70.3M. Shares +0.6% AH.

At the close: Dow +0.02% to 10405. S&P +0.23% to 1118. Nasdaq +0.32% to 2280.
Treasurys: 30-year -0.08%. 10-yr +0.04%. 5-yr +0.07%.
Commodities: Crude +1.27% to $79.70. Gold +1.34% to $1133.30.
Currencies: Euro +0.35% vs. dollar. Yen -0.08%. Pound -0.22%.

Actually yes. :) Up most of the night looking at charts, up early watching the markets. LOL
I need a break. LOL

I'm lovin it. :) I'll probably oversleep again tomorrow too. Hahaha

VMW chart