Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
With the money that has been pissed away in Iraq and the trillions ( that 700 billion is just what congress appropriated, the federal reserve has already passed out trillions thru the begging window) we taxpayers are on the hook for given to wall street, we could have built enough wind turbines and solar panels to generate enough electricity for every household in America. No more coal, no more natural gas, no nukes, all clean energy and far less dependance on foreign suppliers for energy. Add in some R & D for efficient electric cars and bingo, no more oil money to supply terrorists throughout the world. Gee, if I weren't so dumb that would sound like a win-win situation for the US, but what do I know.
.........al
A very good rule. EOM
.......al
Hi camguy- having read extra's posts on shorting also, let me chip in a little. I do agree that the way to make lots of money on this stock is to short it into oblivion. I'm sure it's done- offshore. Hedge funds make a lot of money naked shorting stocks offshore. Can an individual do it? Possibly. I've checked into it myself some years ago. 2 problems. #1 if the offshore brokerage decides to screw you you have little recourse. None in US courts and in country of origin very little as it's the same story there as here ie big money controls everything and you are only a small fish making some noise. They will shut you up in a hurry. #2 the margin requirements for naked shorting penny stocks is outrageous to the tune 3-6 for one. An individual investor could tie up $20,000 for a naked $4000 short. It's all in the potential volatility. We have all seen penny stocks make 5-10 baggers in a day's trading. The brokerages want that possibility covered. I hope that helps a little. Idon't know how he shorts or for whom but thta's the info I have on it.
...........al
On the lighter side- I haven't found a keyboard yet that could spell right.
.........al
The TARP bill could almost be considered a joke if it weren't for the cost. All the hoopla and posturing surrouding it, the press, the pundits, etc. Where are the numbers for all the monies the fed has slipped out through the begging window since this mess started? Why isn't that in the news? Doesn't anyone realize it's in the trillions and also guaranteed by taxpayers? Almost funny too are the multi millions still being handed out to those execs that caused all this in the first place. It's not really a joke, but a crime and I'm sure if it weren't for the millions upon millions of dollars given to both parties for reelection that SERIOUS investigations would already be under way.
Beam me up Scottie, there's no intelligent life down here. ala Washington DC
.........al
Thanks camguy, I put the new link in the iBox.
...........al
joelegs- the old iBox was wiped clean and I didn't save the link to camguy's post. I will keep the OS count current every 2 weeks or so. The current iBox does have all the RS info which with the OS count updates should be very pertinent info for anyone coming here to look.
.......al
If you've already made the play at .0004 I wish you all the best. It's possible it will spike a little and stranger things have happenned both here and elsewhere. Just don't stray too far from the sell button.
Good luck with the play
.........al
The 700 billion that was voted on is small potatoes. The Fed's begging window has doled out trillions since the crisis began. That was never authorized by the current congress and is still backed by tax dollars.We are on the hook for far more than the 700 billion. Helicopter Ben has lived up to that nickname in spades.
..........al
The qualified people that would do the right thing have far too much sense to go to Washington and try. Didn't Reagan say something to the effect of politics is the 2nd oldest profession and is very similar to the oldest. Agree with you on the Bushes. I haven't liked any president since Tricky Dickie and all he did was get caught doing what they all do. I say put Ron Paul in the white house and the Gotti family in charge of treasury. Things would straighten out in a hurry.
......al
Superbee- now you know why I always called heppie the 4th pillar on the ETNL platform of success.
............al
I may not agree with what you say, but have fought and will continue to fight for your right to say it. USArmy 1966-1975
Best info board on Ihub:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=14130
I know you are on the trail of the Kennedy assasination. I may have mentioned this before but just weeks prior to his assasination, he was advocating the demise of the federal reserve note as currency to be replaced by a United States Note as legal tender. It would have most likely been the demise of the federal reserve bank and system. It does kind of tie in with what you are looking at.
.........al
Ted Butler on silver-
A Shock To The System?
By: Theodore Butler
-- Posted 27 October, 2008 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Discuss This Article - Comments: 0
In a moment, I’d like to describe a new development in silver that should prove quite bullish to the price, but first I’d like to review some continuing facts that are significant in their own right. It would appear that the confluence of many factors point to sharply higher silver prices dead ahead. Yes, I know the price has recently collapsed. Ironically, it is that very price smash that is the basis for the coming price launch higher.
Since the recent top in July, the price of silver has undergone a dramatic collapse. As proven by data released in government reports, a large U.S. bank or two sold a massive number of COMEX silver futures contracts into the top and subsequently has covered a good number of those short contracts on the resultant price decline. Quite simply, this is the single most important factor behind the price collapse. The latest data appear to indicate that the price decline is now largely behind us.
The latest data in the Commitment or Traders Report (COT) indicate a near-record shift in market structure over the past three months. The total net commercial silver short position has been reduced by approximately 50,000 contracts (250 million ounces). This is an absolutely massive amount of commercial buying, and has pushed many COT measurements to their most extreme bullish readings in years. Similar commercial buying has occurred in COMEX gold futures.
Make no mistake, this massive commercial buying was no accident. This was precisely why silver and gold dropped sharply, namely, to enable the commercials to buy at the expense of speculative long liquidation. The commercials don’t do anything on this scale by accident. To think otherwise is naïve. Ask yourself this - if silver’s price smash did indicate we faced a long term future of lower silver prices, then why would the commercials, the dominators of the market, buy every contract they could get their hands on?
By no small coincidence, other unusual factors suggest silver prices should soon embark on a significant price rally. A notable increase in demand for 1000 oz bars can be seen in tightening price differentials between nearby futures contract months and by reports in the physical market, a marked increase in deliveries in the nearby October silver delivery contract, as well as recent withdrawals in COMEX silver inventories from those taking delivery on October futures. All are supportive of a pending shortage in 1000 oz silver bars, the industry unit of trade. When the shortage of 1000 oz bars becomes apparent, all talk that silver has only experienced a "retail" shortage, will be dashed. Coupled with the bullish COT structure, it adds up to strong upside price potential ahead.
But the sharply lower price of silver and other commodities has introduced a new bullish development that, quite frankly, I had not anticipated. It has resulted in unintended consequences that all should recognize shortly. So potentially bullish is this new factor that it appears to be on the order of a coming shock to the silver pricing structure.
It is said, in the world of commodities, that the cure for low prices, is low prices. In other words, according to the law of supply and demand, low prices discourage production and encourage consumption to the point at which the low prices are replaced with higher prices. The unprecedented deep declines in the price of silver and base metals, such as copper, lead, zinc, and nickel promise to disrupt the production of these metals. After all, no one can produce at a loss indefinitely. Almost without exception, the price of all these industrial metals has fallen deeply below the cost of production for most producers. This is not just anticipatory, as daily reports confirm continuing mining production cutbacks. In addition, smelter cutbacks, especially in China, the world’s largest refiner, have been ongoing for months.
What makes the sudden price declines so unusual is that have apparently occurred not so much due to specific supply/demand fundamentals in the metals in question, but more to general dark sentiment about general overall concerns about prospective industrial demand and credit issues. All commodities have been smashed, almost indiscriminately. But there is a highly unusual feature to the price declines. For the first time in half a century or longer, the price declines have come at a time of generally low inventory levels, in marked contrast to prior price declines.
Normally, the industrial metal cycle tops out with high prices amid high inventories. Then, the high prices diminish demand, which in turn pressures price, often to levels below the cost of production. Mines react to the low prices by curtailing production or shutting down, which stimulates demand and eats up the high inventories. When inventories reach levels too low to support further draw downs, prices rise until the next peak in prices and inventories. These normal free market cycles take years to unfold.
This time, prices have collapsed even though inventories are on the low side. Therefore, in spite of the fears of reduced industrial consumption, because of the sharply lower prices, production promises to fall faster, and the already low inventories can’t support draw downs for long. Although it is not currently widely expected, even in recessionary times, shortages can and will occur if supply (production and inventory draw downs) can’t satisfy demand, even though that demand may be reduced.
Separately, the resource boom over the past five years was characterized by a noteworthy lack of increase in additional production capacity of most non-ferrous metals. Now, with dramatic postponements and cancellations of new mining projects, due to economic and credit concerns, there will be significantly less production available if and when shortages occur.
The net result for silver could be profound. Not only is the current price below the cost of production for mines in which silver is the primary source of revenue, but the price of base metals like zinc, lead and copper, is also below the cost of production. Since the by-product silver from the mining of these three metals account for a full 60% of total silver mine production (400 million oz out of a total 670 million oz annually), the expected reduction in base metal production will have an exaggerated impact on silver production. Throw in the 200 million oz primary annual silver mine production and the vast majority of total silver mine production is in jeopardy. Finally, recycled silver of some 200 million ounces is perhaps the most price sensitive of all. Talk about the unintended consequences of sharply lower prices.
This is the first time since I have been studying silver that total production has been in such sudden danger of a sharp decline. In fact, it would appear to me that this could be the perfect bullish storm for silver. Please consider the facts. World silver inventories are the lowest they have been in hundreds of years, thanks to a century of industrial consumption. This is precisely at the same time of the most serious threat to production in memory. More than any commodity, silver has been demonstrating real signs of tightness, even before impending widespread production cuts.
What really sets silver apart from the other industrial metals that may quickly go into related shortage situations if prices remain depressed, is the special dual role of silver, as both a vital industrial material and as a primary investment asset that can be owned directly by investors of all means. Silver, like gold, is an asset desired by investors, particularly when financial conditions are unsettled. Copper, lead and zinc are not such assets. So whereas we can have easily see industrial shortages and sharply higher prices for base metals, even in a recession, if production declines enough, those sharply higher prices will not be accompanied by ordinary investors rushing to buy zinc coins or bars of lead. That, most definitely, will be case in silver.
In fact, as I wrote last week, it is not just that investors are likely to buy silver, there is already an historic silver investment rush in force. And this investment rush is even more significant since it has developed only in the past three years, after decades of net investment selling of silver. Again, I couldn’t make these things up if I tried. And please remember, even in a recession with lower industrial demand, if users can’t get the silver supplies they need, they will panic at some point and rush to build inventories.
I did not anticipate the brutal decline to below $9 an ounce. Fortunately, those who hold real silver on a non-margined basis, my consistent public advice, still hold their silver. The rise in premiums of many items, particularly U.S. Silver Eagles, has minimized the pain of the decline. New buyers, however, have just been given a gift beyond description. The collapse in price has had nothing to do with the merits of silver, but will have everything to do with the coming explosive rally. The uneconomic low price will shock the price higher.
Thanks heppie, not to slight anyone else, but that is real DD. Kinda tough to take that out of context, but I'm sure someone will try, LOL. ONWARD!!
.......al
No one on this venue knows anything for sure on the transportation allowance. We will all know better with the uplist and public posting of the 10K and 10Q. It will answer a lot of questions. Until then we can only speculate.
........al
The Patriot News, PA-
http://www.pennlive.com/business/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/business/1225157112137880.xml&coll=1
PHILLIES MANIA
Team caskets a hit for die-hard fans
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
BY NANCY ESHELMAN
Of The Patriot-News
Did you catch this pitch? Hoffman-Roth Funeral Home in Carlisle wants to send you home in a Phillies urn or casket.
"Obviously, this is an exciting time to be a Phillies fan and we wanted to offer caskets and urns that would appeal to baseball fans," said William Hoffman, president and life-long Phillies fan.
No longer does Dad or Grandma have to spend eternity in some nondescript urn on the mantle. Now he or she can yell team spirit from a die-cast aluminum urn that sits atop a "home plate" outlined in black. Each urn is topped by a dome and delivered with a baseball the family can replace with one from its collection.
Eternal Image, the wholesaler, hopes to hit one out of the ballpark with the Major League Baseball series, now limited to 13 team urns and eight team caskets. The company also features products for collectors of Precious Moments and "Star Trek" fans.
"Star Trek" products won't be available until next year. But we can tease you now with the news that the casket styling has been inspired by the "Photon Torpedo" design seen in "Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan."
Chris Hoffman, vice president of Hoffman-Roth, said NFL and NASCAR caskets could be next
You are quite welcome. great board you guys run here. A load of very precious info that bears reading. That is if one cares about his own financial future.
......al
I have never done a derivative of any kind, nor margin. I have always advocated holding the physical and not any paper gold and silver. Precious metals are more than a hedge, they are insurance. Insurance against unscrupulous politicians and bankers that think they can just run the printing presses printing all the fiat currency they desire. No matter what happens to the paper price of gold and silver, my accumulation looks the same at $700 or $3000 an oz. What we're seeing is paper gold being caught in the selloff to facilitate redemptions from funds. It's just a temporary situation IMHO. When all this electronic credit being helicopter dropped from central banks the world over gets fully monetized, look out above.
.......al
It's a snow-ball or domino effect that has no end:) Good one heppie. As the 4th pillar of our success here I expect no less from you
I saw the same scenario a couple of years ago when I first started buying this company. Time will tell in the end, but the odds here to me are far better than playing red or black. We certainly don't have a walmart or microsoft here, but I am seeing a lot of green in the future. Now go get the mail out, LOL.
.........al
Gold sales up in India
http://www.livemint.com/2008/10/26171420/Gold-sales-shoots-up-phenomena.html
Gold sales shoots up phenomenally in this festive season
Gold prices had plunged to Rs11,500-level per 10 grams last week before closing at Rs12,210 per 10 grams yesterday
New Delhi: Gold sales have picked up phenomenally after a fall in its prices to 12,000-level following consistent steep fall in equity markets which has boosted the demand for the metal as a safe investment option.
As per the All-India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation (GJF) study, about 50 tonnes of the metal has been consumed during 1-20 October against over 80 tonnes sold in whole of October-December quarter last year.
“Gold prices are correcting in the last few days and business is booming since last 2-3 days. This trend is likely to continue till the end of this year,” World Gold Council Director Dharmesh Sodah said.
Gold prices had plunged to Rs11,500-level per 10 grams last week before closing at Rs12,210 per 10 grams yesterday.
All-India Gems and Jewellery Association Chairman Ashok Minawala said that the sales during this festive season have been ‘sporadic’ and overall it is 15-20% higher than last year.
“Low prices of gold and the festive period of Diwali have become double opportunity for the consumers across the country to buy gold,” Minawala said.
“Consumers are positive towards gold and this trend is likely to continue during November and December when sales may go up by 50% compared to last year,” Minawala added.
Retailers also confirmed strong consumer demand for gold during this festive season and said the growth has taken place place in spurts.
Delhi-based Om Sons Jewellers’ Suresh Verma said: “Gold sales may rise further during ‘Dhanteras´, a festival which is considered auspious to buy precious metals.”
“This positive trend is likely to continue even after Diwali, which is immediately followed by the marriage season that goes up till the first two months of next year,” another trader said.
When anyone talks of the constitution and the Bush regime, I always think of old Bill Clinton. He was impeached(not tried) just for being a man. Yet Bush who took and oath swearing to support and defend the constitution has done his best to end run the document if not outright violate it. When the democrats took over congress 2 years ago I was expecting articles of impeachment to be voted on. They sure showed their whimpyness(new word) in a hurry. At the orders of Bush the gov't has been spying on law abiding Americans throughout his whole term, yet the democrats did nothing. They were voted in to get us out of Iraq and still funded that debacle- no money no war. Not to sound sexist, but the democratic party has no balls. It really scares me that they will control all branches of gov't very soon. Hold on to your wallets. It's not that I dislike democrats and like republicans, I dispise all of them. I usually vote for gridlock as the less they do in Washington the less harm is done in mainland. I'm still a Ron Paul guy this election. Hopefully the millions of write in votes he will garner will send all of them a message.
.........al
"good" news? LOL. I've been reading a lot of news but only a miniscule part of what I have been reading I would classify as good. Disaster is no longer looming on the horizon, it is here. Throwing vast sums of money at it will only prolong the agonizing end. Market forces are far stronger than what the printing presses can roll out. The big question for me is what will emerge?
..........al
Treasury mulls insurer aid program: sources
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE49N7AB20081024
How long before Paulson comes back asking for more trillions this time? At this rate it will never end. GOLD and SILVER- buy it and hold it. The US dollar will be worth less than the old Hong Kong dollar.
.......al
It's not surprising. When I read that part of TARP I figured either it would be totally ignored as the tax consequences were minimal at worst, or Paulson would arrange something to work around it. Disgusting is putting it too mildly.
.........al
Don't buy often, but I ilke big chunks when I do. LOL. If anyone can drive this back down to an even 1¢ I'm in for another million. Doubt I'll see it tho. Nothing worse than bashers that can't do their job when you want them to. LOL.
.......al
I hope you're right about the company. Despite my suspicions, I'll still be pulling for you. I did like the camera stockpile.
...........al
Rick, best of luck to you. How will it feel in addition to working for Clayton and SNV, you'll be working for us also? LOL. I hope it becomes a marriage made in heaven for all.
.........al
baxterbessie- no apology necessary. I remember your posts and took them as honest effort even if the results were not "good" info for shareholders. I have done similar inquiries myself over time. Thanks for coming back and adding some positive interaction information with the company. I can't speak for anyone else but as a shareholder I am very happy to hear positive experiences with the company. If condolences are in order for your ex, I send mine along to you.
So true that your one positive event does not insure success. Add it in with the rest of the pieces and soon you have a whole puzzle completed.
Best of luck to you
..........al
There is a wild card in the upcoming election that has garnered virtually no attention. Altho the bailout bill was a Bush/Paulson scheme, it was supported and pushed mainly by democrats. They disregarded the will of the people in passing it. Will the voters reject their representatives at the polls for voting for the bailout against the wishes of their constituancies? It may well turn out that Obama may be facing a lot more republicans in congress that is believed. I for one can only wish. I'm a gridlock guy. It seems when there is gridlock in Washington, they spend most of their time posturing and making a lot of noise about the other side. Not much gets done and from what I've seen over many years of observation is the less they do the less harm is done.
..........al
see saws are great if you're into swing trading. The old "buy when there's blood in the streets" may be a good mantra to go by very soon. Support level on the dow in around 7000 from what I understand. Stock market right now I like the Canroyals. Healthy returns up to 30% with monthly dividends. Canada's economy will fair far better than the US as they are resource rich and our biggest exports are dollars and jobs. They are also a play on the Canadian dollar. Best of luck to you also.
........al
That's exactly the reason I like silver better than gold right now. I hold gold but am not buying any more. Silver in addition to being also a store of value is a highly consumed industrial metal with more uses for it being found every year. There are some that believe there is more above ground gold available than there is silver. Most gold used in jewelry or industrially is recovered eventually. Some silver is recovered but most goes away due to low price and high cost of recovery.
..........al
Historically, coins and bars could be bought at spot + 3-7%. I know as I have purchased it over the years at those premiums. If you can find anything available right now it will cost you in most places 40 to as high as 70% over spot. Spot price may control the paper markets in metals, but the reality in the real world is telling a different story. When delivery at the comex is demanded by too many holders and the comex must take drastic actions once again to avoid default of delivery the cat will be out of the bag. Time will tell all.
............al
I am aware of the Hunt debacle. It's what got me into precious metals in the first place. I made a lot trading silver back then and reinvested in high grade silver dollars at a premium. Lost my profits when congress legislated collectables out of retirement plans. I know the scenario as you posted and it is true except for one small item. The Hunts did not demand delivery. No doubt they would have but it was only the rumor of their possible demand that set off the price explosion.
..........al
Maybe just a rhetorical question here, but what happens when some holders of comex contracts decide it's worth it to take delivery and resell into the retail market? If one buyer figures it out so will others and we know the comex cannot deliver on more than a few percent of the outstanding before defaulting. We can agree to disagree but I think the spot will catch up to the real price rather than real dropping to the spot. In addition, what will happen to gold and silver if all this bailout money being thrown around electronically actually becomes monetized?
........al
I may not agree with what you say, but have fought and will continue to fight for your right to say it. USArmy 1966-1975
Best info board on Ihub:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=12189
Before reading this know that John Embry is pro gold and has been for quite a while.
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/investorsdigest/digest.pdf
......al
more free publicity:
http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/News/WestVolusia/wvlWEST02101908.htm
October 19, 2008
Baby boomers behind new direction of funeral offerings
By RAY WEISS
Staff writer
Convention goers scooted by the beautiful Brazilian model and into the display booth, where an unconventional line of merchandise caught their eye.
The empty caskets and urns sported the colorful logos of several major league baseball and college football teams -- the ultimate in eternal comfort for a diehard New York Yankees or Purdue University fan, sans the beer and bratwurst of course.
"The theory is people identify with certain brands. Coke. Mercedes-Benz," said Nick Popravsky, a vice president for Eternal Image, a company debuting its line of licensed coffins. "So we felt: Why not the funeral business? Why not go out this way?"
Personalization -- capturing the essence of an individual's life -- was the catch word at the National Funeral Directors Association's annual convention this week at the Orange County Convention Center in Orlando.
Hundreds of wholesalers on a floor the size of three football fields offered their wares to 5,000 morticians from as far away as Europe and the Far East.
Plenty of traditional stuff -- wood caskets, black hearses, sympathy cards -- was on display. But so were cutting-edge products that bordered on Addams Family eccentric. They included earrings that carried the etched fingerprint of a loved one, custom-made Hong Kong clothes and urns shaped like shotgun shells that fit into the rifle butt of someone wanting to remember a departed hunter.
"Personalization is big now, and I don't think it is going away," said Popravsky, whose background is in corporate America, not funeral homes. "People love their brands, whether it's beer, cigarettes or sports. A few years ago, I'd say there was not a chance I'd be selling caskets. But no one was filling this need. So why not us?"
Kurt Soffe, a Utah mortician, has overseen several unorthodox funerals. During one, the departed person's corvette was used as the hearse, while in the other a farmer's tractor and attached wagon led a procession of 18 tow trucks.
"More personalization is the big trend. It can help a family with their grief," Soffe said, generating fond memories of what made that relative so special. "They can focus on feelings about that life."
Robyn Constantino, a funeral home owner in DeLand who attended the conference, said a growing number of families in this area are going with more personalized services.
"It makes it more meaningful to the surviving family," she said. "You're honoring the way the person lived and what they liked."
Aging baby boomers are the current target for many in the afterlife trade. That generation has been the driving economic and advertising force from birth and beyond, starting with Howdy Doody and continuing through the Wall Street investment years. And as the end draws closer, the trend continues.
"The change (in the funeral business) is coming from baby boomers. There are so many more options," said Jessica Koch, a spokeswoman for the organization, which represents about half of the country's 20,000 funeral directors. "They've always done things their way."
And "their way" now includes environmentally correct, biodegradable caskets and urns, which can include a tree or bush as a marker, instead of a gravestone.
Take Spiritree, designed by Jose Fernando Vazquez, an architect from Puerto Rico. The seed-shaped urn is the size of a bread box. As the bottom section decomposes, the ashes inside help nourish a sapling that's planted at the center of the urn. Eventually, the ceramic top will crack as the tree grows.
"I designed it when I was doing my master's in industrial design in 1999," he said, recalling his late great aunt, his inspiration, who was cremated. "It looks like a seed, or pregnant belly. Death is part of the natural cycle of life, like birth, growing up and aging."
He signed a distribution deal with Batesville Casket Company, the largest in the industry.
Batesville's display at the convention matched its image, looking much like the showroom of a car dealership. Caskets were everywhere. The latest high-end models offered rounded corners ideal for displaying personalized "life symbols," markers made to celebrate a profession, accomplishment or favorite sport.
One honored the life of a firefighter, complete with folded American flag and sporting the shiny "meteorite" metallic finish of an Aston Martin luxury car.
"Consumers are focusing on shapes, colors and finishes," said Batesville spokeswoman Teresa Gyulafia of the 2008 caskets. "They have very high consumer eye appeal."
ray.weiss@news-jrnl.com
from John Mauldin:
Posted Oct 16 2008, 01:08 PM
by John Mauldin
Dear Friends:
Exhale for a moment, forget your losses for the time being, and try to appreciate the fact that you're living through the single most important development in global finance since Bretton Woods. This is a "tell the grandkids about it" moment, when governments all around the world have essentially decided in unison that it's time to rewrite the rules, the very framework, in which financial transactions take place. Stock trading, interbank lending, commercial paper, the very concept of private sector ownership are all up in the air right now.
The only thing I can tell you with certainty is that if you try to evaluate your investments using the same metrics you've always relied on - P/E ratios, market share, interest rates, etc. - you're going to be as successful as a football-turned-baseball coach evaluating a pitcher by the number of touchdowns he throws. The rules are changing, gentle reader, changing at least for awhile from market-driven inputs to government-driven inputs. If you try to apply what you know from the "old game" without understanding that you're playing a "new game," the rules might not make sense.
I'm sending you today a piece from my friend George Friedman on how his company Stratfor looks at economics. More precisely, this piece explains how they look at Political Economy. And from here on out, it's political economy that's going to be driving markets. If the old rule was "Never fight the Fed." It's now, "Never fight the Fed. And the Treasury. And the ECB. And the Bank of England. And the Bank of Japan...." You get my point.
George has very kindly arranged for a special offer on a Stratfor Membership for my readers. I strongly encourage you to click here to take advantage of this offer. Now more than ever, you need the kinds of insights that you can't get from traditional finance sources. You need a wider lens, and there's no one better than George and his team at Stratfor at this kind of analysis. I know you'll find them as valuable as I do.
Your Taking-It-All-In Analyst,
John Mauldin
By George Friedman
Stratfor's focus is on geopolitics. That means that it focuses on the behavior of human societies organized into complex, geographically defined systems. In our time, that means that we study nation-states. In order to understand the behavior of nation-states, it is necessary to focus on three major dimensions: economics, war and politics. The nation has to be studied in terms of producing wealth, defending (and stealing) wealth, and the internal and external relations by which humans shape their lives.
Economics, war and politics are not separate spheres. They are a single entity together constituting the reality of the nation-state. There are those who argue that economic life should be left alone, not interfered with by political or military power. We won't engage in that argument. What we know, empirically, is that political and military power constantly impinge on economic life, and vice versa. It is impossible to imagine war without taking into account politics and economics. It is impossible to think of domestic or foreign policy without considering economic and military issues. By the same token, it is also impossible to think about economics without thinking about military and political matters. If it can be made otherwise, then someone will do so and then we will change our opinion. Until then, we cannot think of the free market as a meaningful independent reality. It is always shaped by other factors. Perhaps it should be otherwise. It isn't.
An integrated approach to social reality requires that these distinctions, so important in the organization of a university or a newspaper, be overcome. They were created in order to organize human activities into manageable pieces. Our argument is that in so doing, reality is only apparently made more manageable, and in fact is falsified. The standard approach to these issues creates distinctions that don't exist and complexities that conceal rather than reveal the nature of the problem at hand. A general who tries to wage war without consideration of political ends and economic means is going to fail. An economist who tries to understand and predict the behavior of the economy without a comprehensive understanding of the political and military realities which shape the economy will not do particularly well.
Geopolitics is in one sense also an abstraction, but it has the virtue of not creating artificial distinctions. The price that the geopolitician pays for a comprehensive view of reality is a forced simplification: there is just too much happening to state it comprehensively. Geopolitics is the search for the center of gravity of reality, those overwhelming forces that drive the system in the direction it is going to take. These forces are never solely political, military or economic in nature. Usually, they are in plain sight and are overlooked because, being simple, they appear insufficient. Indeed, they may be insufficient, but others can add the details. Our goal is to lay bare the essentials and identify the general direction in which things are moving.
Take, for example, our recent analysis of the Russo-Georgian war. It derived from this central reality: Russia by the 19th century had achieved the borders essentially held by the Soviet Union. In 1992 it had collapsed to a position in which it had not been since perhaps the 17th century. That condition was untenable. Either Russia would implode or it would reassert itself fairly quickly. By early 2000s, it was our view that it would choose to assert itself. When the United States tried to make an ally of Ukraine, which Russia sees as crucial for its economic, military and political well-being, we became certain that Russia would push back. As the Americans got bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, a window of opportunity opened up and the Russians began the process of reassertion.
There are, obviously, endless things left out of this analysis. People of every discipline could rip it apart as being insufficiently sophisticated. In one sense they would be right. By avoiding the complexity of sophistication, we could see the fundamental shape of things -- which was that the Russian collapse, if halted, would have to reverse itself for economic, military and political reasons. There were obviously many details we could not predict and some we didn't know. But we captured the essential geopolitical condition of Russia in order to understand what it had to do. We left it to others to do the important work of mapping the complexity. Our task was to capture the simplicity.
In our analysis of the current financial crisis in the United States -- and the world as a whole -- we have sought the center of gravity of the problem. We approached that simply by asking one question: is what is going on simply another inflection point in the business cycles that have occurred since World War II, or does it represent a systemic failure such as that which happened during the Great Depression? This struck us as the urgent issue.
We noted that in the Great Depression, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by nearly 50 percent over three years. It was an unprecedented calamity. Bearing this in mind, we compared the current situation to other events since World War II to see if there was a framework for measuring it. We found that framework in the Savings and Loan crisis of 1989, when an entire sector of the U.S. financial system collapsed and the federal government intervened -- essentially guaranteeing or purchasing commercial real estate, whose price decline had triggered the crisis. We noted that the total amount allocated by the federal government in that crisis was about 6.5 percent of the GDP (and the amount actually spent, before recouping of costs via sales, was less than 3 percent). We noted also that in the current crisis another sector of the financial system -- the investment banks -- were devastated, and that the federal government intervened, this time at about 5 percent of GDP. Meanwhile, the equity markets had not declined as much as they did in 2000-2001, and as of the second quarter of this year the economy was still growing by more than 2 percent. From this we concluded that the U.S. economy was moving into a recession but that the recession would not break the framework of the postwar economy, although clearly the degree of government intervention will reshape the financial markets.
From the point of view of many Russian experts in 2001, our analysis of the future of Russia was seen as simplistic and naïve. From the standpoint of professional economists and traders in the markets, the same is being said of our current analysis. But just as our critics among Russian experts failed to see the main thrust of Russian history, many economists fail to see the main thrust of what is now happening. The United States is a $14 trillion economy with a potential problem amounting to $1-2 trillion (and probably far less than that). If the government intervenes, it will create inequities and imbalances in the system. But between the size of the economy and the government printing press, the problem will be managed -- particularly because there are underlying assets -- houses -- that can be monetized in the long run. The gridlock in the financial system will undoubtedly create a recession, but there hasn't been one for seven years and it's high time.
One can like or dislike the outcome, and we certainly agree that this will cause long-term dislocations and imbalances. But we also know that America as a nation-state has the resources to manage its way through this crisis if the government intervenes. And that intervention is as hard-wired into the American political-economic-military system as the law of supply and demand.
We do not speak the language of economics. There are numerous economists who can do that. And we certainly don't speak the language of the financial markets. We speak our own language, designed to reveal the elegant essence of the problem rather than its enormous complexity. Certainly, if our analysis is wrong because we failed to identify a crucial problem, then we haven't identified the center of gravity properly. And we will be wrong, which is far worse. But as in February 2000, when we published a piece called "Recession Time?" which forecast the market collapse that happened a few weeks later and the recession that followed it, we will be criticized for not understanding some essential point -- in 2000 it was that we had no understanding of the impact of increased productivity on the business cycle. They were right. We didn't understand it and we were right not to. The complexities of productivity did not trump the obvious, which was that the NASDAQ had reached unsupportable levels and there had been no recession in nine years and that was way too long.
So, too, we are criticized for our failure to understand the spread between T-Bills and LIBOR or myriad other things. But we do understand this: The political reality is that the size of the American economy, deployed by the state, trumps the financial problems created by the fall of the housing markets. It will be ugly and painful for some and there will be a recession, but things are always ugly and painful when there is a recession.
This series is about the economic problem, therefore, but is not written about the economy and certainly not by economists. Their work is valuable but it differs from ours. Rather this is about geopolitics and therefore about the different regions and nation-states of the world. It is a geopolitical analysis subsuming economics, politics and military affairs in a single system. And it is designed to extract the obvious rather than drill into the complexity.
We hope this series has some value to our readers in clarifying the current moment. That is its intention: to highlight the main tendency, not to detail the complexity. Understanding the trees has value, but seeing the forest clearly has value as well.
Personally I for one didn't think this company would be any major threat to the established funeral industry. Like gov't, the funeral industry is like a dinosaur, slow to change. I saw this as a niche market in an established industry. Inroads to niche markets have proved successful in many old established industries. As far as a business plan, it seems to be working quite well for a startup company. Will it succeed? I think so, but I wouldn't give a 100% guarantee. It comes down to the old risk/reward. It's why most people play penny stocks. It's far more likely that a 1¢ stock will go to 10¢ than a $10 stock will hit $100. It's also far more likely that a 1¢ will go belly up than a $10 stock. Mistakes have been made in the past. Yet they have patents and products(see posted pics). The uplisting will provide the transparency needed to stimulate investment. I don't look for "to the moon" numbers in the initial K and Q. I will look for rising numbers in the future Ks and Qs. Those are the stats that investors look for in a growing company.
........al
12,000 new wireless cameras arriving at the warehouse could explain the dilution that I suspect. I'm sure they ain't cheap. If it is so and they have outlets for all those cameras, then I could very well support the dilution. It all comes down to communicating with shareholders. JMHO
.........al
Both my senators that voted for the bailout got my opinion on this one.
FOXNEWS.COM HOME > U.S.
AIG Executives Rack Up a Reported $86,000 Tab During Hunting Trip
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — First there was the $440,000 American Insurance Group Inc. spent entertaining executives days after receiving an $85 billion lifeline from the Federal Reserve, now it's $86,000 for a hunting trip in England as the faltering company reaped another $37.8 billion in taxpayer funded loans.
News of the hunting trip emerged Wednesday as New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo ordered AIG to do away with golden parachutes for executives, golf outings and parties while taking government money to stay afloat.
"Even after the taxpayer-funded bailout of AIG, the company paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for luxurious retreats for its executives, including an overseas hunting party and a golf outing," Cuomo wrote in a letter to the New York-based insurer.
He said the spending could be "fraudulent conveyances" under a state law regarding debtors and creditors and noted that beyond those excesses millions were paid to executives who were running AIG as it faced dissolution with government help.
Cuomo said he has the power under state business law to review and possibly rescind any inappropriate AIG spending as long as the Federal Reserve is propping up the huge insurer with almost $123 billion in loans announced since Sept. 16.
Company officials said the hunting trip in the English countryside was an annual event for customers that had been planned months before the bailout. The company pledged — as it did following the September trip — to do everything possible to end such extravagances. They declined to say which AIG executives attended.
"This was an annual event for customers of the AIG property casualty insurance companies in the U.K. and Europe, and planned months before the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's loan to AIG," company spokesman Peter Tulupman said Wednesday morning.
In a prepared statement later in the day, the company said, "We will continue to take all measures necessary to ensure that these activities cease immediately. AIG's priority is to continue focusing on actions necessary to repay the Federal Reserve loan and emerge as a vital, ongoing business."
The company said last week it would stop "all nonessential conferences, meetings and activities that do not clearly maximize value and service given the current conditions."
Last month, and just days after the U.S. government stepped in to save AIG with the $85 billion taxpayer-funded loan, the company picked up a $440,000 tab for a weeklong retreat at the posh St. Regis Resort in California for top-performing insurance agents.
Lawmakers investigating AIG's meltdown said they were enraged that executives of AIG's main U.S. life insurance subsidiary spent a lavish amount on the retreat, complete with spa treatments, banquets and golf outings. Last week, White House Press Secretary Dana Perino called the event "despicable."
At that time, AIG issued a statement saying that the "business event" was planned months before the Sept. 16 bailout and that it was held for top-producing independent life insurance agents, not AIG employees. Of the 100 attendees, only 10 worked for the AIG unit hosting the event, it said.
The insurer said Chief Executive Edward Liddy sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson "clarifying the circumstances" of the event. In the letter, Liddy assured Paulson that AIG is "reevaluating the costs of all aspects of our operations in light of the new circumstances in which we are all operating."
The insurer then said it canceled a future California retreat that was to be held later this month.
Regarding the recent hunting trip, "We regret that this event was not canceled," Tulupman said Wednesday.
Shares of AIG fell 37 cents, or 13.2 percent, to $2.43 in trading Wednesday.