watching biotechs, gold & silver
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".....buy the company now or buy it later."
Wouldn't it be pretty rare for a BO after P2? Is there a list of same somewhere?
Wondering how rare that scenario is.
Pretty interesting poker game going on- world class!
cheers
Surprised by the negative reviews- Dr. Glickman aced it!
The slightly mad scientist look is authentic- there are too many slick bio execs who appear more interested in hyping/selling/pumping their stock. Glickman is about using science to help people who are suffering.
Cramer was the problem in the interview- he was his usual self; hyper, nervous, loudmouth, etc. He loves to hear himself talk so much he hurt the interview. He was clearly out of his depth on Aurinia, even mispronouncing the company name before he corrected himself.
Despite Cramer, Dr. Glickman hit all the highlights in that too brief segment: 5X the efficacy of current SOC, only 1 P3 required, $200M in cash with no further funding needed, more VOC indications coming in the fall, etc.
Cramer came across as Cramer; Glickman came across as a man of integrity on a mission (this is a speculative stock).
The interview would have been better without Cramer, but even with that handicap, Aurinia was very well represented.
Did anyone really expect him to announce a buy out last night?
Onward and upward
That's a great problem to have! Right at the Cramer interview end, Glickman mentioned DES but also referenced another indication without naming it. What are other opportunities for Voclosporin?
Great interview! These guys are definitely the real deal- they have the highest integrity, credibility, and they know how to execute.
Short term who knows? Long term a very high probability of a big winner.
cheers
".....looking forward to listening to cramer for once"
I can't watch his show either- a mental case- just hoping he doesn't burn us- he's such a wild-man, loose cannon, etc. Can't believe he has avoided jail time. Also he has a lousy stock picking record.
Go Glickman!
A. 3 recent MF positive articles, 2 of which were in the last 2 days.
B. Cramer's announcement of Aurinia CEO on his show "Mad Money" tonight at 6PM
C. Options expiration July 21
D. Buying often leads to more buying just as selling often leads to more selling
E. We were too cheap- seller exhaustion?
F. Hot, burned shorts (including our perma-short here)
G. etc., etc.
Not too late? Party hasn't started yet. You should cover soon.
Nope- not it. Go to google.com and learn the real definition.
Thanks for the heads-up re another bullish MF article on Aurinia.
Here it is- nice read
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/07/17/3-small-biotech-stocks-being-run-by-proven-winners.aspx
Todd Campbell definitely likes us.
I'm seeing between 82M and 83.4M shares out currently, with 106M total if all warrants, options, etc. were exercised.
But that doesn't identify the current float, which is the current number of shares available to trade today.
The recent 26M+ share financing was masterfully executed.
No need to raise cash all the way out to the end of P3 gives them plenty of breathing room.
This management team keeps demonstrating stellar performance.
".......tutes have been accumulating and increased their percentage of the float to north of 85+%."
What is the actual float? I can't find a real number- yahoo says it's 44.84M, wsj says it's 47.85M- both of which have to be wrong since fintel says tutes own 52.2M which would be over 100% of the float by either calc.
https://fintel.io/so/us/auph
BTW- Thx for the commentary re the current market- sound analysis
cheers
"Will we stick in the 7-7.5 range....."
Funny you say that.......I've been thinking (based on my own complicated permutations) that we're worth $7.50 today and should be on our way to $10, then $20, then who knows?
Always interesting
cheers
"....the placebo group was the healthiest group out of the 3 arms."
Thanks! Were they the healthiest group by design or was it just happenstance?
Thanks in advance.
"it might stir up the corp. buyers........."
Should be interesting. Wondering if we'll see some activity due to July 21 options expiration next week.
Also wondering why P2 trial showed 24% CR in control group vs. 9% cited in article- is there a disconnect or is that the "placebo effect" in action?
cheers
"Is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' Management Its Best Asset?"
Direct link to article at MF:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/07/14/is-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-management-its-best-as.aspx
"Is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' Management Its Best Asset?"
(Published yesterday- link at bottom)
"Richard Glickman was the founder and CEO of Aspreva Pharmaceuticals, a small company that he sold for $915 million in 2008 after it developed CellCept, a treatment that today is commonly used in lupus nephritis (LN) patients.
Nowadays, Glickman's at it again as the founder and CEO of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AUPH), a company that's developing voclosporin, a drug that can be used alongside CellCept in the same disease. Can Glickman reshape this indication a second time?
A winning team
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' C-suite is stacked with a slate of Aspreva Pharmaceuticals veterans. In addition to Glickman, the company's chief medical officer was the former research and development vice president who was responsible for CellCept's development at Aspreva, and its chief operating officer helped develop Aspreva's strategy for CellCept's use in LN.
Todd Campbell has no position in any stocks mentioned. His clients may have positions in the companies mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
So far, getting the gang back together looks smart.
In March, Aurinia reported what are arguably the best response rates ever achieved in a LN trial. Historically, fewer than 10% of LN patients go into complete remission following treatment. However, the complete remission rate was 49% in voclosporin's trial. Partial remission rates also improved significantly to 68%. For comparison, they were just 48% in the control arm of this study.
Voclosporin's efficacy in this trial is important because it suggests that its use someday could significantly reduce the likelihood of LN patients advancing to dialysis. Historically, early intervention that leads to complete remission reduces the likelihood of a LN patient advancing to end-stage renal disease. Currently, up to 30% of patients with severe LN end up in end-stage renal failure within 15 years of their diagnosis, despite existing treatments like CellCept.
A big commercial opportunity
While CellCept is used in LN, it's not officially FDA approved to treat the condition. Therefore, if phase 3 trials of voclosporin pan out, a green light could make it the first treatment specifically approved in the indication, quickly establishing it as standard of care. Aurinia's phase 3 trial recently began enrolling patients, and the study's estimated completion data listed on clinicaltrials.gov is March 2020.
If voclosporin does win FDA approval for LN, it could be a big win. There are over 500,000 Americans diagnosed with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and up to 60% of them develop LN. Roughly 40% of LN patients are considered to have their disease poorly controlled, including 17% who have active disease.
Based on the size of its addressable patient population, pricing trends in the indication, and the ability to shake up standard of care, Glickman's team thinks the market opportunity for voclosporin is $1 billion annually in the United States. If voclosporin wins approval in international markets, then its opportunity climbs to around $1.4 billion. It's too early to say for sure what Aurinia Pharmaceuticals may charge for this drug, but management's current thinking is that the U.S. market could support a price for it between $50,000 and $100,000 per year.
Foolish final thoughts
I love investing in been-there-done-that management teams, because their experience can help them successfully navigate clinical and regulatory twists and turns that can send less experience managers off course. I also love investing in management teams with a track record of unlocking value via shareholder-friendly acquisitions. Given the track record of Glickman and his team, it's probably not hard to understand why I'm intrigued by Aurinia Pharmaceuticals.
Having said that, this is far from a risk-free stock to buy. There's no guarantee that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' phase 3 trial will succeed, or that if it does, the FDA will approve voclosporin. Similarly, if it's approved, there's no guarantee doctors will prescribe it.
Nevertheless, I like the odds associated with with investing in this company -- especially since Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market cap is hovering near $500 million, and voclosporin's peak sales potential could eclipse $1 billion."
http://host.madison.com/business/investment/markets-and-stocks/is-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-management-its-best-asset/article_465315a9-1f38-50e5-b4bd-58055bcedc47.html
"I will never understand why anyone worries about what the price is today"
Puzzling to say the least....
You're fortunate- you've been blessed with a brain that works. You're giving sage advice if only the ones who need it could heed it.
cheers
"Twitter is alive with reasons this isn't working... "
To be considered "alive", a pulse and/or heartbeat is generally required. Twitter looks as dead as the volume on this.
Summer doldrums in full swing. Nothing to see here while it snoozes.
ZZZZZZZZ............
"Puzzling to say the least.... "
Welcome to the world of biotech- the history of this sector says price and value are often at odds with each other. A puzzle? Definitely. A surprise? Not so much- pretty standard behavior.
Lots of possibles why the price is not advancing:
1. In 12 months the price has gone from $2 to $10 and back to $6- a sheer rocket ride.
2. We're 2+ years away from approval so plenty of time (some may think) to pile in for the ride up.
3. Hedges buy and sell all the time, sometimes they do both at the same time- they might want to use the money elsewhere- they also might want to get rid of the retail buyers by discouraging them.
4. The typical "summer doldrums" in the market- the WS sharps have their bag of cash and are relaxing in the Hamptons until they need to reload.
etc., etc.,...........
Thanks- makes sense to pull back from even the appearance of conflict of interest
"IF they are even in the portfolio."
It would seem illogical to add nearly 750K shares since the last reporting period and then dump them, but I guess anything is possible, no matter how unlikely. I bet they still own them.
2017-05-10 13F-HR NEA Management Company, LLC (previous) 4,067,743 (current) 4,808,483
It would be nice if the Baker Bros. came back on board, along with some additional tutes. It would seem now is a good time to add here.
Does FDA head Scott Gottlieb have to divest his interest in NEA Management Company, LLC? They own nearly 5M shares of AUPH. Wondering re conflict of interest, etc.
https://fintel.io/i/nea-management-company-llc
This new FDA initiative/directive looks bullish for Aurinia:
".....last month CDER, working with CBER, issued a plan for the development and issuance of patient-focused drug development guidances. The workshops and the new guidance will set forth our plan to facilitate a more systematic approach to gathering and using patient perspectives to inform FDA’s regulatory decision-making."
above quote from new FDA head Scott Gottlieb, M.D.
complete article here:
https://blogs.fda.gov/FDAvoice/index.php
Also worth reading from "Fierce Biotech"
http://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/fda-outlines-innovation-initiative-cures-plans-to-speed-up-drug-development?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal&mrkid=51876159&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTUdJMk1UTmhPVGM0T1dabCIsInQiOiJpZjVRYWZ3UXM1dlk3bUxCWWo0b2hKTzBIT1FiVG95dmgrNFYrWWhDTkp2MXY3UXNQRE5iN2xBOGNmUGNmejlMTGtiQVREMFpXNjlocDFrSUlZc25FamtER3l4KytoMlg3Z3FXbXdNT1gwVnBzZjhPSDBEY3FMRThidDRuQTJnQSJ9
".......does the FDA have the ability to look at incoming data at any point during P3?"
Great question- I thought they did simply because once in a blue moon a trial is stopped early because the results are so good- I think that's what happened at Bob Duggan's company that he headed.
I guess I'll have to re-read all the recent posts on double blinded stuides.
If it's not stopped early they could still get earlier approval based on their Fast Track Designation from the FDA:
"Rolling Review, which means that a drug company can submit completed sections of its Biologic License Application (BLA) or New Drug Application (NDA) for review by FDA, rather than waiting until every section of the NDA is completed before the entire application can be reviewed. BLA or NDA review usually does not begin until the drug company has submitted the entire application to the FDA"
https://www.fda.gov/forpatients/approvals/fast/ucm405399.htm
I'm just guessing but would bet that Lunacy knows the answer
"...........we have a decent chance of getting an offer by Dec 2017. If not, then we are in for the long haul and a post P3 data offer in early 2020."
Or maybe the rare occurrence happens where the efficacy is so compelling it would be unethical to continue the trial and it's stopped early.
I'm guessing the earliest that could happen would be around May 2018.
Trading this for pennies at this low level seems crazy dangerous.
Good stuff you guys! Thanks for your recent posts that are thought provoking, relevant, useful, etc.
Sharp contrast to recent drivel fest here- maybe board will be resurrected over time. Hope springs eternal.
cheers
"short trading should be banned in this market."
Do you mean all short selling or just naked short selling?
If all, I'm guessing you want to be a seller and not a buyer here.
The following from Investopedia makes sense to me:
"Is short selling ethical?
By J.B. Maverick | January 13, 2015 — 8:11 AM EST
Short selling actually makes important contributions to the stock market.
• Short selling adds liquidity to share transactions, reducing bid and ask spreads by virtue of the added buying and selling enabled through short sales.
• Short sales can lower overall investing costs by driving down the price of securities that may have become overpriced.
• Short selling can provide some defense against financial fraud by exposing companies that have fraudulently attempted to inflate their performances. Short sellers generally do their homework very well, thoroughly researching before adopting a short position. Such research often brings to light information not readily available elsewhere, and certainly not commonly available from brokerage houses that prefer to issue buy rather than sell recommendations.
• Short selling may actually help prevent market crashes by serving as a check on runaway bull markets."
If you really believe, I would think you would welcome low prices here.
"AUPH is ripe for a squeeze!" I don't think so- I think the reported high short interest is misleading as I believe it is hedged as it didn't appear until after the 26M share offering.
I agree AUPH is getting primed to rise, but wouldn't be surprised if the roller coaster ride continues in the short term.
No apologies necessary- to the contrary, it's good that you mentioned it, as you've no doubt noticed the veritable flood of misleading and outright false statements re AUPH on this board, mostly from a sole source.
Thanks again for the post and the opportunity.
cheers
"AUPH wasn't even in existence in 2007."
Certainly true regarding the AUPH as we know it today. However, to be ridiculously technical, the following is from AUPH's website:
"The company was incorporated in 1993 and its common shares have been listed in Canada since 1996. In September of 2013, the company acquired closely-held Aurinia Pharmaceuticals in an all stock transaction and subsequently adopted Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. as its new corporate name."
No question that any price history before 2013 is highly misleading, perhaps even disingenuous. Posts that suggest otherwise could fool someone new to the stock, which would be unfortunate.
cheers
Hilarious! Love the biting wit.
Think he employs the following fool-proof, sage advice re the market:
"Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it."
Will Rogers
cheers
I think Duggan looks at it the same way as Buffet, who views a stock declining after he starts building a position as a positive; an opportunity to buy something he likes even cheaper.
If you watch every tick in price every day, not only is that an exercise in high anxiety, it might cause one to take their eye off the prize.
Gems from market legend Peter Lynch:
"If you like a stock at $14 and it goes to $8, that's good if you understand the company. Take advantage of these declines."
Lynch also says "the key organ in your body is your stomach, it's not your brain. If you can add 8+8 and get to 16, that's the only level of math that you need to know. It's always going to be scary, there's going to be always something to worry about, and you just have to forget about all of that. If you own good companies, you'll do well."
Methinks you worry too much. If you lack faith in AUPH then you should bail.
cheers
Institutional Shares 37,914,951 That's 45% on 83M shares. Definitely climbing
https://fintel.io/so/us/auph
cheers
"....below $6.75 per share. It will be a bloodbath..."
Why? What difference does it make? I doubt Duggan is a technician. He paid $8.85 for 500K shares. If it drops he'll likely buy more.
The guys who bought the offering and hedged are already in it cheaper, maybe at the $5 level by now.
Any drop is a gift for those who want to buy.
cheers
"at what point would you anticipate that the short interest would start to drop? "
Great question that I can't answer with any reliability or expertise. Do we have guys with hedge fund experience here? They would know I believe.
cheers
Where is the flaw in the theory that the shorts are really longs. I think they bought the offering, immediately hedged and locked in a gain, and now are building their positions for the long haul, while continuing the short term game of selling and re-buying.
Pls advise & thx
cheers
I wasn't referring to me
cheers
If it's truly a "jest", then it makes sense. Didn't realize it was written April 1st.
Fooled again.
cheers
trying to brush up on my math skills- postulate the following theorem:
au+ph+ih+mb = auph ih mb + negative br = BS to the 10th power
Proofs are contained in 8K+ prior posts
cheers
Dang it! Thought I had you dead cold! I concede I goofed the maths re dilution- my 2nd mistake yesterday. My other miscue was in thinking I made an error but I was wrong.
Hate to waste my rant re in or out- correct me if I'm wrong but I thought that's part of your MO- bullish for awhile and then a shift to the negative, which I can't comprehend because I'm guessing you're in this in the $2-$4 range, with the rest of the ARIA alums. Since your entry point there has been nothing but a steady stream of good news from AUPH, making the bull case grow stronger and stronger, evidenced by the big jump in institutional positions. Hell, after the recent plunge I'm now underwater but not really concerned about it since the future is so bright here.
Re dilution, there is bad dilution and good dilution. I think your 150M share figure is too high for that reason. If they stay successful the stock price will reflect it and these guys seem very smart about raising money. If they need another $165M for DES, it might be at $20 instead of $7.
Even if it's 50M shares the price of the stock would be $40 in a $6B BO, many multiples of current price.
Still looking for a valid bear case for this issue and see nothing credible out there.
cheers
"Embrace it, except it , it's part of the process."
Here is why I'm not embracing it:
Your apparent view and strategy is far too risky- puts me way out of my comfort zone. Let's even say the odds are 100 to one in your favor- it's still too risky for me.
While it's likely that there are some here who have amateur standing in this category, I am a seasoned professional mistake maker- I may even be modest in saying I'm in the world class rankings.
I've already been fooled so many times by this stock I cannot afford to miss the BO, which easily could come before P3 is completed.
You're more of a gambler than I am.
I see the risk of being out of this stock far greater than being in, especially at these low levels.
I think it was Hans Solo who said to CP3O, "Never tell me the odds".
Frequently wrong but never in doubt
cheers