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News now that markets have closed????
It's in Barclay's interest to get as high price as possible as their profit comes from the difference between the selling price and the option price.
Why do you care about dilution if the company is sold?
Oh come on. So what do you think is happening?
If you don't think there is a "process under way" then what do you think is happening at the moment with IDCC?
I think they know better what they are doing than anything you could suggest seeing as you know nothing of what's going on.
You're just inpatient. Get used to it as you're not going to influence what the company is doing.
We'll know in the end if what they did was correct or not, but not until then, and maybe not even then.
For now all we know is that there is a SALE PROCESS under way. Period.
Wi-Lan made a hostile bid after Mosaid rejected Wi-Lan private approaches. Since it was a hostile bid it had to be made public as it went to Mosaid shareholders and not to Mosaid management.
There was no negotiation and there was no second company involved.
A completely different process and has no bearing on what IDCC is doing.
IDCC HAS TO do this in complete secrecy so as not to disadvantage any shareholders who might get leaked info and also to keep bidders in the dark as to what other bidders/consortia may be doing.
THEY HAVE NO CHOICE.
All shareholders need to be concerned about is the final price agreed to should a deal be struck.
Sure, it would be great to know exactly what's going on, but that can never happen in a bidding process.
We had no prior info before the MMI deal or the Nortel deals were finalized.
In not saying anything IDCC is in effect saying "The process continues."
nic, then by all means sell those options.
Interesting that they're posting these (especially the Head of Legal at this stage of the sales process. Are they showing confidence in the future should they remain independent, or a lack of certainty in the negotiations?
Apple just announced that it was going to use $10 billion to buy back shares.
Apple down more than 7% in after hours.
Nothing said on this or any other board has more than a small and temporary effect on the sp.
The Board doesn't care, the CEO doesn't care, the potential buyers don't care about what's said here or the day to day variations in the sp and so why should you?
The sale either will or will not take place and if it doesn't, the sp will be based on earings and future growth potential.
Mickey, you are using revenues, and not earnings in the P/E calculation and ignoring taxes,etc. Divide your numbers by 3. Read Rational Investor's post.
dmiller - lol, yes, you do hope we go the same route.
Thanks olddog, I thought it was around 50 mill, but just wanted to make sure how much we'd get for a $10 bill offer. lol
With the warrants our bankers are getting, how many fully diluted shares will IDCC have?
Apple's patent strategy vs Samsung by FOSSpatents
http://fosspatents.blogspot.com/2011/10/apple-told-samsung-it-owns-thicket-of.html
oldog, in the case of LG, would LG not have to pay additional licensing fees to use IDCC's newly acquired patents and if so, at what rates?
The big difference is that a FRAND patent can't be withheld, even from rivals, so it can't be used "strategically" to possibly cripple competitors either financially or to keep others from introducing products using those patents.
Mickey, while I appreciate your reasoning, I wonder what your statement
"If the information that Samsung had dropped out because the bidding was over 5 billion"
is based on.
I've seen no reliable info on what's going on in the negotiations and have not seen the above statement anywhere.
Thanks
Mickey, you say
"Now something else to add is that Evercore thinks Apple and Google will be bidding in the say 7 billion dollar range maybe for starter."
Where did you get this from?
Thanks
The share price is irrelevant as far as bidders and longs are concerned unless one is on margin. Should the price drop it gives longs another opportunity to get in at lower levels.
It's not often that a sale/takeover is announced without the sp rising to the expected selling price. I don't see a sale at less than $100 per share, although of course a sale is no certainty.
If a no sale is announced, the earnings come into play once again and will determine the sp.
The ones in the best position to assess the value of the IDCC patents are the bidders. They have the right people in the necessary numbers and the financial incentive to carry out a thorough analysis.
They've also had the time by now to arrive at a reasonably close assessment of the value of these patents for their needs. I don't see this taking more than a couple more weeks.
It might not be in time for October option holders, but should give plenty of time for those holding November options. I have both as well as shares. Should be an interesting few weeks, with results out any day during that period.
Why should the company delay filing just because of the sales process? The value of the company to the bidders is largely for the strategic value of the patents not their revenue potential.
Not sure why some are upset by the wait. If the value is there and we get anything above $100, a week or a month makes little difference, unless you keep buying short term options.
Secondly, the delay is no indication of the price likely to be paid or give an indication of the likelihood of a sale.
So the delay is more revealing of the psychies of some posters than the state of negotiations.
IDCC has weekly options now, so an option expires every Friday. The company will just have to ignore that and come out with their announcement after the market closes or before the market opens any day of the week.
Buy some November calls between $60 and $70 strike. The sale should be announced by then. Minimize risk with big upside.
Nortel is banrupt, showing a share price of 2.2 CENTS with a market cap of 10 Million.
That is, shareholders will get little of the $4.5 Billion it just sold for.
That sale price was 450 times the share price.
Microsoft LTE phones coming.
http://allthingsd.com/20111009/microsofts-windows-phone-boss-says-dual-core-lte-models-coming/
I have dmiller on ignore. Is this the Forbes article being discussed?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2011/09/27/interdigital-confusion-reigns-over-potential-consortium-bids/
It calls for mory wild gyrations until the process is concluded. No suggestion of problems or failure of a sale.
LAGuy. I'm impressed by your creative house of assumptions.
However, until we hear something from the company every guess is as good as another.
All we do know is that a process to sell the company started some time ago and that it has not officially concluded.
We don't know the likelihood of a successful sale nor what a successful sale might bring.
I don't see the great urgeny to divine an answer. If you hold shares, it makes no difference if success (or failure) comes in a day, a week or a month, as long as the final price is right.
IDCC mentioned on BNN as being recommended by some analyst as as a possible takeover target.
I still have a Radio Shack level II Model 1 (I think) from 1978. Doesn't run though. It was great! Zero startup delay, no applications, but great for writing games in Basic. Probably had one of the first floppies, AND a 300 baud modem! Leading edge at the time.
I believe that Apple took the idea of the graphical user interface and the mouse from Xerox.
huibs,
I just ran a speadsheet and find that you'd be losing between $32 and $68 SP with the greatest loss of $1800 at $50. As you said, break even is at $68 with a $1200 gain at a SP of $80. With each $10 rise in SP you gain an additional $1000.
I have tried to paste the result below.
Stock 1 or -1 Prem/ 30 50 68 80
Price B or S Price Value Strike
Call -1 22 2200 30 2200 200 -1600 -2800
Call 2 10 -2000 50 -2000 -2000 1600 4000
Total 200 -1800 0 1200
Good strategy F1.
I bought some stock and some out of the money calls in the last month. Now we just need a buyout announcement at $100 plus and all will be peachy.
No strategy is perfect. With the synthetic long you only make money if the stock goes higher than $70 by January and then you make less than than buyin the stock at $50, although it costs you little. And of course if the stock drops to $30, you still lose $900 per put.
Where is the downside protection?
If the stock drops to $30, you lose the $20 per share times 100 shares per contract time two puts or $4000 on the puts. As well since you bought nine calls, that's an additional 900 x $11 or about $10,000 for a total of loss of $14,000 less the put premium received of $5 times 200 or $1000.
Net loss $13,000.
No protection at all.
Europe up 2 to 3% today.
Thanks. I have seen most of the discussion and the abridged version of the article but not its entirety.