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Are these stock prices supposed to be making us nervous?
For sure this investment is risky. For sure we don’t know when unblinding and topline data will be announced.
But, for sure, we know that the chances of success are reasonably high. Interim data gave us that key piece of the puzzle. They’re also not going bankrupt anytime soon with millions in Sawston equity, little debt, and another billion plus shares to potentially sell.
Read the map here. The CEO didn’t just burn $4 million of her own money in April. Clearly she knows chances of success are reasonably high too.
I am guessing that topline data hits in November and share price improves to over a dollar with NICE approval.
Your guess is as good as mine.
How do you measure PFS in a patient that has already progressed? The placebo group will provide insight.
Great summary. Wicked risky investment. Yet...there’s something behind these GBM patients living longer and this trial having to carry on for so long. Efficacy and approval would disrupt a market. The big dollars of status quo are fighting hard against it.
Of course she isn’t being treated with DCVAX at Duke. She’s probably being treated with a competing immunotherapy, one that has no published data, but just the speculation of researchers and physicians. It could work better or worse than the current SOC or better or worse than DCVAX. Only when they’ve collected 10 years worth of data, will we know.
For sure. They’ll pay for waiting too if data is great.
I bought today
You’re welcome for my unsolicited opinions.
90 percent of what is published out here is speculation. There’s really no way to know how high or low this could go. I thought I’d have some fun.
But imagine if we had a marketable product that cures 30% of all solid tumor cancers with no side effects. That’s the potential here. What’s that worth?
That seems a bit low, but you gotta go through $15 to get to $50. :)
I agree with not basing investments on a dream.
That being said, I had a dream a few months back that it went to $5 per share. It didn’t spur me to buy more $NWBO. But it makes me less likely to sell before then.
Wait until November. Should be less risk and more clarity then. But by then you could miss out on a big jump.
Thanks Sharpie. It would appear that NICE is moving forward with interim data. Our FDA would be smart to follow suit.
Can’t wait to unblind and see these results. Data still looks good.
They probably got a call from the SEC about “lost shares”.
I think you’d have to ask Chris
Well stated. They must truly believe that the opportunity cost of this business was worth it. They could have invested far more elsewhere with less risk. But they must believe that the reward here is worth the risk.
You can’t project because statistically there are different % of people with 100k than with 250k.
Where did you get the 250k price tag? Are you the pricing manager for DCVax?
Until we know a firm number on price, it is impossible to project who can afford DCVAX on right to try.
Do you have any input or insight on their right to try revenue?
I haven’t seen any signs or hints at dilution. Does this mean that right to try revenue has been greater than expected?
Share price reflects market sentiment, not product development. I’m investing in the potential for revenue and profit on a product in development that changes cancer cure rates, not the past performance of a company with no sales and no significant revenue.
Says the JTM article with the blended data. I’m comfortable with what was published. I consider it good.
Stay tuned...
Lots of speculation here. We still really don’t know when unblinding will happen. The data is still good. All projections are still towards efficacy. Not sure today’s comments change anything.
I’ve thought about that scenario too. Problem is that we just don’t know.
Just wondering when the slow bleed stops. At some point, just like at .16-.17 last summer, the value prop of this security has to hold up. I think there is more value now than last year due to the paper and the timeline to finish being closer. But there’s still no money. Until we get some insight into a product to sell and revenue, we linger at these levels.
Can’t blame her that patients are living so long. Can only blame DCVAX for that.
Thanks Doc. Still in it for the long haul here, but the timeline is frustrating as an investor and a clinician. I see patients monthly who could probably benefit from this technology. So sad that they can’t get it.
Statistical significance...
One of the most interesting things I’ve contemplated recently is primary and secondary endpoints along with statistical significance. I think most investors here know that our likelihood of achieving endpoints is pretty high based on blended data and historical data. But I’m wondering if the wait at this point is being done to achieve lower p values and greater statistical significance. If (more like when) the naysayers attack positive endpoints, they’re going to do it with statistical significance. The SAB understands that with the crossover arm, statistical significance may be harder to achieve without fully mature data. Can anyone comment on this?
It’ll be interesting to see how quickly unblinding and hitting endpoints will take this above $2
Sentiment is right. No retails are in this for .30. A 20 million share day on good news will take this to .60
We are still blinded. That means that the company doesn’t have insight into the results of the endpoints. That is the definition of “blinded”. Meeting endpoints or not is all speculation until the data is unblinded to the company.
The only thing we do know is how many total patients are still participating in the trial, how many are alive, and their demographics. That’s called blended data. We don’t know who got DCVax and who didn’t.
But common sense would dictate that there’s a reason for promising survival data in this group of patients. What could it be?
I thought it was going to .24 today? What happened?
I hope you’re right. Would love to pick some more up at .17.
Please quote your source for that information.
A pharmaceutical that is interested in having an advanced pipeline on cellular immunotherapy would buy this company. Or, BP could invest the $$ that it would take to catch up to where NWBO is at with their trial. But they’ll always be 10-15 years behind.
I heard that CBS news this morning ran a segment on brain cancer approaches. Anybody get to see what that was all about?
They’re not. They’ve covered. The real smart ones are going long at these depressed prices and trying to keep sentiment surpressed while they buy.
My sell orders start above $4