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CRL is not critical and other options exist for geographical expansion of manufacturing if and when its required.
CRL could be a good option since they (Cognate) made DCVax for the phase 3 trial.
I agree with Gary that the Eden technology is a patented strategic production capability and care must be taken to protect the IP and value/revenue potential.
The practice of China stealing/reverse engineering patented technology with impunity is always a worry, so the closer Eden is kept the better. Eventually when nwbo is either a BP or incorporated by a BP, there would be functional staff with lawyers dedicated to IP protection and prosecution, imo.
I like what you have expressed and intrinsic value is a near and dear dimension as it ties into the same approach as messers Buffet and Munger practice.
It is hard to argue that Nwbo hasn’t been building intrinsic value!
Market value will eventually reflect the increasing intrinsic value. It already would if not for the forces keeping the price manipulated to artificially low prices!!!
A big adjustment is inevitable and coming soon as the catalysts will be undeniable in my opinion.
Take a deep breath and relax!
Too much stress on the board today.
Remember, the MAA will be submitted, whether in X days or X+n days, the submission milestone will be achieved!!!
Nwbo track record has been piss poor on meeting estimates of completion dates BUT 100% on successful completions!!!
Take that to the bank.
(Idk, however I’m not laying blame completely on management for the delays, and I do give praise to management for not only surviving as a company but bringing home the first GBM breakthroughs in multiple decades, and what appears to be a tumor agnostic treatment and critical component of combination treatments for solid tumor cancers and possibly other diseases that the human immune system can be made to target!!!)
BS alert!!!
Peeeuuuuwwww!!!!
Stinky load of BS thrown at the wall hoping it sticks!
Yes, a juvenile reply to a worse garbage statement imo!!!
Yes, specifically his insight was, “WTF am I doing out on this wing? Not a genius thing to do!”
I will attempt to use my logic as follows:
Prior to the latest PR that introduces additional time to complete the UK MHRA application, the filing was talked about by nwbo as just that, a first submission for the MAA to the MHRA.
Occam’s razor logic has me thinking that the delayed submission is still to MHRA since it’s too great a leap to suddenly be simultaneously applying to multiple RAs.
Yes, whatever the changes are to the last key section could in fact better align with an improved submission to the UK that will also address the requirements for the other RAs but this needn’t be simultaneously as one submission such as an Orbis submission to all four RAs.
For one thing, one submission to all four RAs would undo the perceived advantages of attempting the first approval from a friendlier, fairer, RA in a country that apparently is more onboard and in fact has provided manufacturing approval and enhanced the specials program.
Also, from my government project’s experience, it was always tougher to work projects for the multiple (Army, Airforce, Navy) service arms than for the individual arms. Although we did, in general they were characterized as very challenged due to competing priorities and scope of requirements.
While the survival from GBM is the main objective for approval of dcvax, it seems easier to get approval first from your “friendliest” and most ready RA that is less beholden to the US influencers.
In summary I conclude the simplest route and logic remains to submit to MHRA first, and follow or at best do another or multiple individual submissions at the earliest time(s) that work best in management’s assessment.
Just my thoughts and as always you’ll still need to add about $7.00 for a venti latte
Riiiiiiiidiiiiiiiii Pagliaccio!!!!!
Or could it be to get distance between the bought and sold politicians and their influence in the US, where KG is donor number 1?
After seeing things in the US this last decade that are so obviously corrupt and partisan, that are such a contrast to what we were taught that the very fiber of what America stands for is in jeopardy, I think I resign myself to consciously decouple from the depressing news and try to enjoy the remaining time left on this big crazy planet.
Yes this may be ostrich like behavior that does nothing to prevent trouble from finding you, but I’m questioning if hitting your head against a wall several times every day is an effective strategy.
Margaritaville here I come!
Indeed it is timeless and shows the human condition has applied to all of us over the generations.
I wonder if there are cave drawings that convey the same sentiments?
Oh my!
What a living nightmare that would be to be visited by such other worldly creature, or AF, take your choice
And see it you shall !!!
It truly would not have been his nature if he didn’t take a swing at such a slow, fat, hanging, ball!
Shhwwiiinnngggg batter batter!
A swing and a miss!
Geez, what’s happened to my once 99 percentile English?
The Way We Were, not We’re!
Would you believe it was autocorrect error?
Would you believe it was fat fingered?
How about a weird holy man made me do it?
Yea, that’s the ticket!!
Your post has me breaking out Streisand, as in “The Way We We’re.”
But alas, we mustn’t look back, only forward!
Btw, I’ve played the class clown way back from elementary school to high school, and still clown around as is evident by my sophomoric insistence on trying to be humorous. Coping mechanism, attention seeking behavior, enjoyment of hopefully witty stuff or just lightheartedness, I don’t know.
Our hour is over, see you next session
Remember, he who laughs last laughs best!
You might look in the mirror and see if there’s a clown looking back, not that clowns are bad. We all need to lighten up these days!
That is one phugly looking chart, but having stated that, I’ve been there done that before.
Looking forward to being on the inverse “to the moon” chart with nwbo real soon!
No worries, I’ve been and continue to be patient, especially seeing the (slow but) steady progress.
I’ve been in nwbo shares, accumulating and averaging down, for more than a dozen years. I decided long ago I was going to see it out to approvals and beyond.
I had a head of dark hair then, all pretty much gray now, but still at maximum conviction DCVax will be major successful for patients and us investors!
An example of the rapid movement of a fomo move:
Tempest Therapeutics announced on the 11th (local time) that its candidate for liver cancer treatment, TPST-1120, had shown efficacy in clinical trials, causing its share price to skyrocket nearly 4000%.
The stock price of Tempest surged from $0.24 the previous day to $9.77 on the day, an increase of $9.53, or 3972.53%.
However, after-hours trading, the stock price fell 34.9% to $3.41, down to $6.36.
Tempest announced that TPST-1120 showed superior clinical results when combined with Roche’s Tecentriq and Avastin as a first-line treatment for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma or common types of liver cancer.
The median progression-free survival time of patients treated with these three drugs was seven months, compared to 4.3 months for patients treated with only Tecentriq and Avastin.
Hepatocellular carcinoma is expected to be the third leading cause of death from cancer by 2030.
Good one!!!
Welcome to the jungle!
Flip you got me!
I was thinking The Grateful Dead but I can’t solve the clues
Yes agreed, and many more, but I was afraid to push the limits of what the moderators would allow!
I even left off Blondie, Madonna, Iggy Pop, Janis Joplin (Big Brother and The Holding Company), Meatloaf, Mountain (with Leslie West), Simon and Garfunkel, Sonny & Cher, The Electric Light Orchestra, The Moody Blues, The Police, Poison, Kiss, Blind Faith, Black Sabbath, Grand Funk Railroad, Journey, Foreigner, and many, many, more!!!
Hey! Maybe I should keep listing contributors to rock and roll music until the MAA submittal and approval are announced?…….Nahhhhhh
Small world! Yes Vinton Cerf I believe the internet evolved from the work being done at DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) that he was a key contributor to.
Aren’t we lucky to have lived during the incredible technological advancements since the 1950s. And as a bonus we also enjoyed the birth of rock and roll and the tremendous evolution of music from Little Richard, Elvis and Gerry Lee, to The Animals, Dave Clark Five, The Beatles, Stones. Hendrix, The Doors, Cream, Santana, Crosby Stills and Nash, Led Zeppelin, The Who, Queen, Elton John, Springsteen Van Halen, Metallica, Nervana, Green Day, Blink 182, John Mayer,……..
But I digress
Anything is possible and I checked a couple of Edgar reports and they were time tagged after market hours so if there were to be such an official report it looks like it would be after hours.
However I only checked two examples, and this is one possibility of several modes of proper shareholder communications.
All I know is each day is a day closer to the inevitable submission announcement!
Ready for the late afternoon fomo move into the close?
Assuming the milestone is met this week then today’s close has a 25% chance of the submission news. Tomorrow, if no news today, has 33%, Thursday 50%, Friday 100%, conditional probability assuming news this week.
Not saying submission news will be out this week, it could be next week. However I would not be short into any close given nwbo will submit any time now according to the recent PR!!!
I still believe the application has been submitted and waiting on formal acceptance perhaps, on a gut feeling.
What’s the story?
Going to Texas ?
I agree with your $15-$30 per share, btw.
I just wanted to take a conservative case.
Of course I will be giddy if and when the share price goes multiples higher, and except for selling 10% to 20% of my shares for personal needs, I intend to keep my shares for the longer haul as long as the fundamentals support the investment.
In the case that fomo/squeeze shoots the share price much higher than currently supported, for example the share price explodes to $50-$75-$100 then I would sell more than 20% assuming the odds of a correction would be high. Ultimately I can see a BP valuation however at my age time has a lot of value and isn’t replaceable!
Just plucking a number out of the air, let’s say GBM and rGBM would value the company at only $20B market cap, and let’s round up shares to 2B.
The easy math gives a $10 share price.
For me that would make for my best return on any investment in over 55 years of investing!
These are reasonably conservative assumptions imo, and I could see better scenarios.
Throw in other indications and continued improvement in combo treatments and multiples of $10 seem very reasonable over time.
FOMO and short squeeze could catapult the stock price to unreasonable levels very quickly, so one should be vigilant and agile in the weeks and months to come, possibly beginning in days.
In fact we all keep throwing away $2 for a lottery ticket when the odds seem incredibly better to buy nwbo shares instead, imo.
No mas no mas
I concede to you the champion’s belt
I’m humbled by your prose
As humble as I’ve ever felt!
I might be wrong but I thought the 1.4B shares already factored in all outstanding warrants, options, and convertibles.
No, no, yes
DCVAX promise is the best
That’s why we’re here and invest
In immunotherapy for humanity’s sake
The greatest returns about to make
A breakthrough leap about to take
It’s kismet, it’s karma, it’s fate!
Word
I’ve always sensed that LP is well connected and closely consulted with the fda, in a mutually beneficial manner. The fda has not put the cabash on any of the nwbo trial particulars and has greased the skids for acceptance of external control, for example. I believe the fda has also learned and benefited from nwbo and its journey with the longer than a decade phase 3 trial and cell related manufacturing.
Aren’t they exempt from the fda fee as an orphaned disease treatment?
A very wise early mentor of mine once stated, “if you can fix the problem with money, then it’s not a really serious problem.”
LP got nwbo and dcvax this far, across many treacherous obstacles, and an fda fee is not going to be the barrier to approval!
Shorts of nwbo at this point remind me of very bad decisions with M80s and cherry bombs, where someone lights the fuse, thus knowing it’s lit and almost certainly will explode, but it hasn’t exploded yet.
The bad decision is to get back close to the unexploded bomb to investigate and possibly relight the fuse. Then boom!
The outcome unfortunately could be tragic!
So it is with greedy (or trapped) nwbo shorts. The fuse has been lit (and even PR-ed) and instead of retreating to a safe distance, some brazen characters continue to hold their explosive shorts and play chicken with the exact timing. Go figure?
Don’t let the precise timing fool you. Submission has or will happen and be followed by a very likely acceptance!
After all, to us shareholders we have observed timing of milestones that usually take longer than we all expected, however they have been successfully achieved eventually.
I’m going with the odds that the nwbo fuse is still lit and will the sp will explode higher!!!
Thank you Flipper, however you must know some genius 5 year olds
I think what I gleamed from your “simplified” explanation is essentially to ignore the irrelevant to submission/approval, which will certainly come when it inevitably comes.
I believe CM means Cookie Monster, who is subject to sugar induced spike/crash episodes caused by ingestion of said cookies, and is sort of irrelevant to the timing of submission and approval.
Is that somewhat close?
This time you might as well respond in an incomprehensible manner
Any basis for this thinking?
Did a little birdie whisper in your ear?
TIA
Flipper,
Excuse my confusion however I did not understand the message. Would you be so kind to try helping me understand, perhaps like explaining to a 5 year old?
Thanks in advance!
It’s still early in the morning. Besides, the pattern is to drop price shortly after open and climb back.
I still don’t know that the manipulation has been broken because of the clamping of the price within a range. You can see the ripples around the highs and lows most days.
The range has been increased lately but we need the unadulterated FOmO breakout when all of a sudden everyone is learning about this breakthrough cancer treatment platform. Approval should get it going imo. Other positive news catalysts could combine to light the fuse as well imo.
Thank you!
Question: since the UK is 5 hours ahead, that would be around 3:15pm now. Would MHRA update an accessible website or other observable data source?
I’m wondering if there is a timing prerequisite before a PR might be issued?
Is there a handshake back from the MHRA accepting the application?
Ok, multiple questions
Aside from the real value that will be talked about and spread like wildfire, the FOMO on this medical breakthrough will likely cause an extra dose of irrational exuberance, and any short squeeze, could all combine to cause the share price to rocket higher than expected in a short time.
I believe the sp can spike to $20-$50, or even higher, then retreat for a while before the more orderly climb commensurate with the realization of the revenues and potential of the DCVax platform.
The FOMO spike can happen suddenly so imo the share price has to be monitored closely in order to catch the wave if you’re looking to sell a percentage to get some needed capital out, and holding for the future higher prices or indefinitely if holding for the long term value creation.
GLTA