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Yes, anytime a promising small biotech they've targetted releases news, no matter its quality, they do that. A couple bash articles and social media trolling provide cover for shorting, etc. I don't think the dip will take it down much more than $1 though b/c no run up to this news. And if news is indeed good, maybe lots of buying after and a great rebound.
Possibly, the SEC monitoring this stock "might" neuter their activity to some extent.
What is the diff btw "top line" data and PK/PD data? Hasn't Anavex already presented the PK/PD analysis for the 5 week results? Thanks
The last patient reached the 12 week mark over a month and half ago. Numbers should be crunched and results should be ready to be presented by now.
Why you guys nitpicking and hanging on every word Missling says? Insinuating the stock will drop if 12 week isn't revealed by end of qtr? If you're gonna nitpick, then why aren't you freaking out now b/c Missling said Anavex would reveal 12,26 and 52 week results as they become available and we all know the 12 week results are available now and could be revealed.
Why are they holding off on releasing the results? In talks with BP for partnership or buyout, data isn't ready to be presented, data bad, or other?
The critics cite that outliers skewed the conclusions Anavex made. Is that true? And, what were the different doses the patients were on? I didn't realize any were on 14mg, is that optimal dose or just the minimum dose where positive effect was noted?
6 months ago, someone posted, or I read somewhere, that 3-71 is 30X more potent, or more efficacious, than 2-73. It is a smaller molecule.
Hmm.....where did you read 30mg was the optimized dose? If it is, why then are some on 50mg?
Is Phase 2A, Part B powered for statistical significance, and I know some patients are on 30 mg and others are on 50 mg, which is the optimized dose?
It didn't say Fischer or Missling. We're inferring Fischer b/c it does say the presenter is from the city in Israel where the Weisman Institute is located. Fischer is affiliated with the Weisman Clinic, whereas Missling is from NYC. We can assume Fischer will talk about 3-71's recently reported pre-clinical results b/c 3-71 is the drug he developed.
Umm...why you assuming that? CW tells us the Dr. that sits on the Anavex scientific board that is affiliated with the Weisman Institute in Isreal will have that spot to talk about his drug's (Anavex 3-71) results.
Interesting, 20% stop donepezil due to insomnia and muscle cramps. Monthly cost for the generic is $210 whereas Aricept is $360
akeepingitreal posted this abstract from the supposedly "similar" study Dr Lisak did with dextromethorphan. Note - no results are mentioned so we can't compare 2-73 with DM
Glia. 2014 May;62(5):751-62. doi: 10.1002/glia.22639. Epub 2014 Feb 13.
Effects of dextromethorphan on glial cell function: proliferation, maturation, and protection from cytotoxic molecules.
Lisak RP1, Nedelkoska L, Benjamins JA.
Author information
Abstract
Dextromethorphan (DM), a sigma receptor agonist and NMDA receptor antagonist, protects neurons from glutamate excitotoxicity, hypoxia and ischemia, and inhibits microglial activation, but its effects on differentiation and protection of cells in the oligodendroglial lineage are unknown. It is important to protect oligodendroglia (OL) to prevent demyelination and preserve axons, and to protect oligodendroglial progenitors (OPC) to optimize myelination during development and remyelination following damage. Enriched glial cultures from newborn rat brain were used 1-2 days or 6-8 days after shakeoff for OPC or mature OL. DM had large effects on glial proliferation in less mature cultures in contrast to small variable effects in mature cultures; 1 µM DM stimulated proliferation of OPC by 4-fold, microglia (MG) by 2.5-fold and astroglia (AS) by 2-fold. In agreement with increased OPC proliferation, treatment of OPC with DM for 3 days increased the % of OPC relative to OL, with a smaller difference by 5 days, suggesting that maturation of OPC to OL was "catching up" by 5 days. DM at 2 and 20 µM protected both OL and OPC from killing by glutamate as well as NMDA, AMPA, quinolinic acid, staurosporine, and reactive oxygen species (ROS). DM did not protect against kynurenic acid, and only modestly against NO. These agents and DM were not toxic to AS or MG at the concentrations used. Thus, DM stimulates proliferation of OPC, and protects both OL and OPC against excitotoxic and inflammatory insults.
Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc
No, the study they referred to was done by the same author (Lisak) that did the study on 2-73. Here is what they posted, "An investigator (Dr. Lisak) did a single PRECLINICAL study using a specific model in CELL CULTURES (not even animals yet) and is nowhere close to moving to human trials. The same study by the same author has also been done with dextromethorphan with similar/better results (hard to directly compare with limited data available)."
I'm trying to find if such a study actually exists
akeepingitreal on YMB posted that a similar study was done on dextromethorphan and MS and the results were similar, or even a little better, than the results from the preclinical study of 2-73 for MS. Can anyone verify this? Dextromethorphan is a cough suppressmant found in most otc cough suppressant meds
I track this stock as close as anybody everyday and I never thought, "Gee, if Missling doesn't reveal that the trial has been extended beyond 52 weeks that is a bad sign and maybe I should sell." That thought never even entered my mind. And I doubt it even entered Missling's that he should comment on that b/c if he doesn't the market will jump to conclusions. I just don't think that has anything to do with the PPS or the thought process of people trading this stock.
Even if 2-73 is a success and gets FDA approval a couple years down the road, will AVXL ever break free from the suppression/manipulation? Even when Dendreon's drug got FDA approval and it still was suppressed. That stock was down for many years. Is that the fate of Avanex no matter good PR's and catalysts to come, assuming they do?
The market is sophisticated enough and doesn't track the science and trial closely enough to weigh their decision based on something like a hunch that another extension hasn't been granted. That hasn't even crossed their minds. They don't know jack about the trial or its history, not like some of us do that track this beast day in day out and read all the PR's and science articles.
Wait until the SEC finally investigates some of the AVXL shorting hedge funds. That'll scare them off of AVXL. Businesses don't want to be on the govt's radar and scurry like roaches from the light.
Go to fig. 4 which is donepezil MMSE scores. At 6 weeks the change is +0.5 and at 12 weeks less than +1.0. That is for 5 or 10mg dosing of donepezil. Now, compare that to 2-73. Avg MMSE at 5 weeks was +1.5 and for those on highest doses of 2-73 it was more than 80% likely they'd have an improvement of at least +2.0 at 5 weeks. Impressive.
In the 2-73 trial, all but 7 were also on donepezil. But they'd been on it for awhile, so was it still exerting any beneficial effect? Maybe alone no, but maybe a synergy with 2-73 breathed some life back into donepezil? IDK.
New diagnotics (neuronetrix's headset and software, antibodies in the blood, a urine test) are said to detect brain damage from the earliest onset of Alzheimers 10+ years before clinical symptoms even appear. That is when Anavex Plus should be given optimally. The urine test given to people at every annual checkup past age of 55 or so might be routine. If they test +, put em on Anavex Plus stat.
The people in the current trial might have to much brain damage to expect anything close to a cure. The critics will bash 2-73 if all its results don't show statistically significant improvement. Compare that criteria to what Lily deems a success (decreasing decline by 1/3 over 18 mos)
I think you're underestimating the power of the hedge funds and the extent of the shenanigans that are being perpetrated by wall street
During the 5 week Part A trial, they were tested every day? I thought they were just tested at the beginning and then at the end.
At the end of Part A, what were the different dosage cohort groups tested?
The short write up states, "Amyloid-beta peptide has been shown to result in mitochondrial and endoplasmic reticulum stress, intracellular calcium dysregulation leading to oxidative stress and apoptosis (cell death)." I thought the problem with amyloid beta peptide/protein was that it accumulates between neurons
congress will still be republican. it won't happen
No. The concern is shorting and to lesser extent libel
If TA and daytrading is so great, why do most people that do it fail? The failure rate is very high. If I was gonna do it, I'd pick a stock that has a pattern that repeats over and over again that is predictable. A stock that is in a channel. That, in my mind, trumps trading a highly volatile, manipulated, unpredictable stock, like AVXL.
It is so @#$%ing obvious this is what is going on, all of it, to a "T". The SEC could have a field day here if they wanted, if they were worth a damn.
Does this mean 30 mg is the optimized dose and that is what all trial participants are on now? Or does the optimized dose for each patient vary from patient to patient?
I didn't realize they were given 3-50mg doses. I thought the range was 30-50mg. Is that 3mg correct? Don't recall seeing it.
So, you believe they'll short AVXL again when the next batch of data is released, just like last time. I'm not sure they'll play it that way. They might want to be unpredictable and not show their hand.
Best thing investors can do is file a complaint with the SEC and ask their congressmen to crack down on naked shorting and pressure the SEC, citing Anavex as a textbook example.
I wonder if the people at Goldberg Law are related at all to Sonya Goldberg who put out that hit piece on AVXL last fall that appeared on The Street SWeeper website?
I hope you let the SEC know that
Sent in my complaint to the SEC. Mine was long but yours doesnt have to be. Just a paragraph will do. Let them know that Anavex is under attack. Tell your senators and congressman to put pressure on the SEC to investigate and put a stop to naked shorting.
Do you think the SEC has anything actionable at this stage against any suspects? I hope they have dirt on the big fish (ie the hedge funds), not just the little fish (Adam Feuerstein, Melissa Davis, bashers on social media, law firms, etc)
cover for the naked shorting. The hedge funds got some balls w/the sec investigating them
That would be very shrewed of them. Hope it is the case and they are keeping tabs. The manipulation is rampant and overt. Cmon SEC, do your job and bring the hammer down on these crooks and liars. No wonder drug prices cost so much when drug companies have to deal with this BS trying to bring a drug to market.
That would be very shrewed of them. Hope it is the case and they are keeping tabs. The manipulation is rampant and overt. Cmon SEC, do your job and bring the hammer down on these crooks and liars. No wonder drug prices cost so much when drug companies have to deal with this BS trying to bring a drug to market.
Funny, I thought the 5 week results for Phase 2a, Part a were good, especially compared to the hundreds of other drugs targetting Alzheimers that have been in clinical trials. What was the author expecting, nothing less than a friggin cure for Alzheimers after 5 weeks (including a 12 day wash out) with patients on non optimized dose, and a trial not powered for statistical significance that didn't have efficacy as a primary endpoint?
I'm no expert but if I were gonna invest more $ into this, I'd wait til Jan 1st b/c they are gonna try to bring AVXL down HARD next couple of days. That (manipulate the share price down) is what hedge funds typically do end of year and then the price bounces back up in Jan. So obvious with the bogus lawsuit coming out end of year. Right now could be the bottom for the week but IDK. I kinda doubt it though. They'll try more lame tricks on the 31st to bring it down so pps might get down further. IDK though. They are brazen to manipulate this stock though b/c it is on the radar screen of government and they are watching it. They could find themselves in hot water in 2016. AVXL will have the last laugh and they will regret ever messing with it.