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Would it surprise anyone if he were paying them back under the table, with proceeds from his overly inflated salary? It wouldn't surprise me if this were the case.
Let's play "Parsi Bingo". Key words are:
Weather, Red Carpet, Acquisition, Shareholder Value, Celebrities, Beyond Our/My Control, Bitcoin, Beyond Meat, Organic, Ongoing Discussions, Westfield Mall, Letter of Intent (LOI).
Anything I missed?
Can you blame him? If you were Philip Gay, would you invest your money with someone like Joey Parsi?
Checking in to say hello, glad to see a lot of familiar faces are still here (and some new ones, too).
I've been casually watching AVXL while still holding a core position -- it'll be interesting to get the most updated outstanding shares list as it seems some more shares may have been sold into the market causing the recent drop in price.
Some good news though over the last few months that indicates the Rett trials are progressing nicely. My opinion still remains unchanged: AVXL is an excellent trading stock to either make small gains or pick up free shares. The long term outlook is still high risk, very slowly diminishing with each piece of new information, but the reward will be substantial if the drug proves effective making AVXL a worthwhile gamble from a risk/reward outlook.
Best of luck to everyone here with this investment and all your others, too.
Exactly. He doesn't do anything. He pretends to be looking for expansion opportunities but he lacks the ability to do so through his own network. No legitimate firm will help him because he can't afford to pay them, so he hires these low-rent amateurs who can't accomplish anything either. Clearly the malls couldn't care less about having GIGL locations, the red carpet stuff was all hyperbole.
And this is why Parsi doesn't care about expanding. He's content to do nothing and just collect his paycheck, his six weeks (??) vacation, company car, etc. , and issue himself new cheap shares to counter any dilution.
The guy is a joke of a CEO
I thought you liked TMPS?
Link? Thanks
It appears $2.25 is the new support, down from previous 2.80s but well above the low of 1.25. Decent stepladder pattern for long-term chartists.
Hard to tell what will happen with the macroeconomic climate, reports are that a currency war will push the US economy to the brink of a recession which may not bode well for AVXL, or almost any other stock for that matter, but assuming that the trade war doesn't escalate the chart show that AVXL has some open field in front of it to run if it can get back above the 2.65 area.
Many here will be pleased that this will be my final post. I've got some pressing health issues that need my attention and I don't want to spend too much time worrying about superficial things like my portfolio. Sold off my trading shares, holding my core position to the end. I've always tried to present the good and the bad with AVXL, and to offer my price predictions based on what the charts are showing. Some hits and some misses, I never kept track but hopefully more of the former than the latter. I hope you learned as much from me as I have from all of you.
Wishing everyone here all the best with their AVXL investment, and any others you may have positions in. Long term if you're looking for an Alzheiemer/ neurological drug company to invest in, AVXL has as good a chance as any and at these prices the reward certainly outweighs the risk.
So you are part of the cabal that is manipulating prices, lol.
In all seriousness, glad you are trading smart!
Didn't say that they did. I said that the previous trials were P1 which are much cheaper than P2/3, so it makes sense that minimal dilution would be necessary. Now that we're getting into the more expensive trials, we are seeing $250M shelf offerings.
I'm very much aware of Cramer's interview. It happens a lot. Just no evidence that is happening here.
But if that's what people want to believe then by all means. It doesn't matter. Manipulation or not, AVXL has been a trash investment for investors and a goldmine for traders.
We can simply agree to disagree. That's the fun part of message boards. The fact is that AVXL has been a dog of an investment since 2015. At a time when the market saw all time highs, AVXL has barely kept its head above water. Those who sold four years ago were smart. They can buy back now for a lot less and take advantage of other opportunities. Those who held are licking their wounds and are looking for any justification to make themselves feel better about their poor investment decision.
AVXL may have potential, or it may turn out to be a giant etch a sketch with Dr. Missling shaking it hard to erase every shareholder's equity. Nobody knows.
Too early to make that statement with a $250M shelf on the table.
If he ends up maxing out the authorized shares under $5, the dilution will be viewed by many as average to expensive. If he dilutes at $25, then you'll have called it correctly.
I still maintain that he's more concerned about getting the cash than he is the dilution -- he's got plenty of shares and warrants to weather the dilution just fine and I wouldn't be surprised (though admittedly I need to read his contract) if his warrants have anti-dilutive component which is typical in exec compensation packages. He knows he can get to 100M shares at whatever price he wants, and still have the preferred shares to raise more money if need be.
Missling is smart. I never disagreed there. I just think he's made a lot of missteps that have put a cap on where the current valuation could be.
1. Not adequately responding in a timely fashion to the actual short cabal that drove the stock price from $15 - $3. The stock has never recovered. The "cabal" everyone speaks of today is a mirage. The real cabal, the Feuersteins and Michauds, and Sykes, even Dr. Adam Kline et al have moved on. But the damage remains. Missing had several opportunities to seize control of the narrative, refute the allegations, and he did nothing until it was too late.
2. Not being transparent with shareholders. It's one thing to need preferred shares, but if it is truly to prevent a hostile takeover, just say so. The fact Missling is unwilling to publicly and definitively state that the preferred shares are going to be used to prevent a hostile takeover is concerning, because they can just as easily be used as a took to bypass the 100M authorized share limit.
3. Not being transparent about the need for cash. This isn't as big of a deal because any astute investor could look at the balance sheet and know that $17M runway is nothing, but in his investor presentation he made it seem like dilution was a non-issue, and then a few weeks later he sneaks in a shelf registration after hours before a holiday weekend. If there's going to be a need for dilution, own it and be clear about expectations shareholders should or should not have.
4. The agreement with Biogen was a mistake -- why give them access to anything AVXL-related without getting anything in return?
5. His salary is inflated relative to the stock price. He's in a win-win situation. I'm fine with paying him after the fact with warrants, but even for NYC standards for a company that is not making any revenue, he shouldn't be making nearly as much as he is -- after all, he stands to gain the most if the drug is successful and that alone should be reason to stay on board if he truly believes in AVXL's success in the current trials.
I agree 100%, assuming that AVXL is successful. That's the part I'm unsure about but I am a cynical skeptic by nature. One problem, is that if the economy is in a downturn when AVXL gets approved, if it gets approved, will we still see $10B-$20B biotech sales or will it become a buyer's market as more big Pharma companies are being careful with their cash holdings?
And if you're Missing, do you take stock instead of cash in any offer? You have to really believe that their paper is better than your paper to make that call.
Generally speaking, it's better to sell a company in a good economy than a bad one. So even if AVXL has the goods, we all need to hope that the economy picks up before any partnership or sale takes place.
Smart move. It will go back up. This is people fleeing to gold and cash. I can't blame them either, China devaluing its currency is going to lead to America doing the same thing, and a currency war will crash the market like we haven't seen since 2009.
Unfortunately for AVXL and many other small cap bios, it is caught in the cross-fire for the time being.
And because there are no sales, it is unreasonable to believe that the stock should be trading at crazy valuations that some people are throwing out all over the Internet forums.
Wait until there is approval. That will give a nice pop. Wait until there are sales. That will give an even greater pop. Wait until there is a buyout. That will give the valuations many people want to see.
Until then, no sales = high risk. Markets don't like risk.
Missling = BUFFOON.
Any competent CEO would have this stock above $10.
But it's barely above $2 because of Missling's blunders.
If the stock is being shorted, Missling should be proactive to combat it like other CEOs have successfully done. But Missling is a beta, and he rolls over when faced with any threat to his company.
I love the potential of the science, but I have little faith that Missling is capable of unlocking the full value of the company.
Buffoon.
Exactly. Biotech is the safest (relative) place to be other than gold, and now bitcoin, because a successful trial has no correlation to geopolitical factors that would tank other, revenue-producing stocks.
That said, the risk is still just as great as its always been. Many times in the past people flee to biotech and end up losing it all, when buying and holding blue chips on sale would have been the more prudent strategy.
The stock should be at $50, but CEO Missling is a buffoon.
And so, we trade at $2.30.
Time for some sub-$2 stink bids, though they probably will not fill.
A plumber knows how to stop a toilet from spewing crap all over the place.
GIGL continues to overflow the room.
Agreed. good news, created a nice short term pop in the share price but nothing truly revelatory about it.
the only reason is if Missling wants to hedge against poor Rett results. I agree it doesn't seem likely but it is a reason that cannot be completely discounted, either, if one wants to be totally unbiased about this investment.
Today's news is nice but it seems a bit unnecessary because everyone knew Anavex was safe from the P2A trials. This confirms it but it doesnt provide anything new or substantial.
One has to ask if the recent flurry of PR is an attempt to pop the share price to diminish the amount of dilution that may take place in Missling decides to start selling shares. Some believe the shelf offering is a back-up; I think it is more likely he plans to issue shares pretty quickly otherwise there wouldnt be any need to even issue a shelf right now since they only take a few weeks to register.
All valid points. It's wait and see until the 9th. I personally think that news events are fundamental because they affect the overall outlook of the company.
To an investor, Anavex is a much different beast with a $250M shelf offering than without it -- one investor may like that Anavex will be flush with cash while another may not like the dilution associated with a cash raise.
The Russell addition is another news based event that changes the fundamentals because it increases fund ownership and by association lowers the retail float. That's a fundamental change with shares moving from weak to strong hands.
10 more days and we see what the shorts are up to.
Any of the scenarios you listed are possible. To believe otherwise is to ignore the reality that AVXL remains a speculative investment, albeit one that may reward those who stick with it through thick and thin.
Nobody said Anavex is about to get thrown out of the Russell Index, but if the share price doesn't increase then who knows what will happen this time next year. Anavex wasn't included in the previous Russell Index because its market cap wasn't big enough, and if the Rett trials don't turn out well its not a stretch to believe that the share price will remain depressed until the P3 ALZ data comes in.
For every person who is absolutely sure that AVXL is going to succeed, there is someone else who has an equal amount of conviction that it won't. And right now it is impossible to determine who is correct.
The most recent run was due to the Russell addition, in my opinion. Funds had to buy as part of the rebalancing. Whether shorts covered as a result is secondary to the fact that AVXL increased its institutional ownership by way of the Russell.
The run in May 2019 was predicated on the news that the Phase 2 AVATAR trial had begun. Notice the timing: the PR was released on May 8th, and that was coincidentally (or not) the day that the run began, though it hit full force a few days later. Again, it is possible and even likely that shorts covered into this news which sent the stock price even higher, but it was a news-driven event that jumpstarted both runs.
Similarly it was a news-driven event, the shelf offering announcement, that led to the selling that we are seeing here today.
There are exceptions, 2015's short attack led by Adam Feuerstein being one of them, but for the most part shorts are a reactionary force. They jump in when they smell smoke and exit when the fire department arrives. In both of the previous two runs, there were news-based events that made shorting unattractive -- or as you correctly said, fundamental changes.
that's a fair analysis.
Anything is possible. Though if your thesis is correct, the short would be due to the offering news, and the sideways action would indicate that covering has taken place at sub-$3 price.
I never said that removal would happen or that it would be imminent. I said that there is no guarantee that Anavex will be included in the Russell next year.
The run to $4 was predicated on the Russell addition. That isn't a sustainable feature in terms of keeping the share price afloat, as evidenced by the fact that a slight bit of negative news (offering) sent the price all the way back down and past the previous support level.
Russell is meaningless. It was fun to cheer the stock price when it was going up because firms were buying, because they had to, but what changed at Anavex that made the stock more valuable one day than the previous?
I'll wait for news that actually matters. Russell doesn't so I personally couldn't care less if Anavex stays or goes next year.
And you know why? Because he broke his primary investing rule when he went into business with the Brazilian PE firm.
The fact he can lose $4B in a single day and still remain one of the five wealthiest people in the world speaks volumes about his investment acumen.
When you have made $4B to lose in a single day, your "lol" will actually have some humor to it.
There’s a difference between following an investment and chasing it down thinking each dollar it drops is the bottom. I never said don’t folllow AVXL, I said that my strategy for my core position is to buy once and hold. Minimizes risk that way of throwing good money after bad
Yes. Buffett rarely averages down. He does his research and buys when he feels the price is fair, then holds. If some macroeconomic shock occurs like the recession he will average down. What he doesn’t do is follow every tick or post on message boards. Or buy biotech because, as I said, the risk of failure across the board is so incredibly high no matter how much research is done or how good a drug looks in phase 1 or 2.
Thirty five years ago I bought a VCR for $400. Three weeks later it was on sale for $300. Timing is everything.
Was it worth $400? My friends told me no way. That their Betamax was the better product and the better value at only $250. A year later though they ended up buying a VCR.
Those who bought earlier bought into the hype but the $15 they paid may still seem cheap when all is said and done, just like the $400 I paid may have seemed expensive at time time until the competition was gone and the price went up for those who ended up having to pay twice.
I’d rather buy once at a price I think is fair and not worry about the week to week. It’s a strategy that is time tested, and valid.
I never said it’s in danger of removal. I said that if it doesn’t maintain a minimum share price it will be removed. Same with any small cap.
What I also said is that it seems odd that the only time the stock price is manipulated is when it’s low. There never seems to be any manipulation when it’s on a run. Why is that?
But nobody would pay $5 for those excess shares today, right? So it’s impossible to make the claim that AVXL is undervalued. It’s worth whatever someone is willing to pay, and right now that price isn’t a dime over $2.50.
With more information the value will go up or down, but right now it’s unfair to say definitively that AVXL is over or underpriced.
I vacillate between whether I believe in AVXL for the long-term. On one hand the data all points that the drug works. On the other hand, the stock market and my gut tell me that the odds are heavily against P3 approval.
What I do know is that the short-term outlook is pointing up. It broke the 2.80 support but has been holding 2.50 well which is exactly what it needed to do from a long-term perspective -- if you go back to 2015/2016 this is right around the level of support it had previously held.
I discount the Dec 2019 crash because the entire market was down on account of trade war and interest rate fears.
What fake news and scare tactics? I haven't seen anything of the sort.
The only news I know of is that there is some positive data about gut bacteria, and some negative info about upcoming dilution. The market seems to care more about the dilution than the gut bacteria so the stock price is falling.
I bet AVXL would be above $3.75 if nothing were mentioned about the shelf offering. That news put the brake on the stock price going up, as it should. Dilution fears, real or not, tend to put downward pressure on any stock, not just AVXL's.
No fake news. Just some good news and potentially bad news duking it out to see which is more powerful. Bad news often emerges the victor.
Reporting would be for greater than 5%. Lots of investors purposely stay below that threshold for this reason.
As for why the selling, again, I don't think they did sell. But for the sake of argument:
Macro-level analysis would be that despite the positive evidence there is still a lot of risk. Analysts don't get fired for not holding winning positions, they get fired for holding losing ones. Maybe the analyst who bought AVXL decided that it's not worth holding through the trials because of this increased risk -- money can be made from P1 to P3, and it can be made after P3 -- these funds aren't like retail where they want 100-500% gains. Most are content to beat the S&P by a few points. I don't; know Park West's investment strategy so I cannot speak to how aggressively they tend to invest in biotech.
On a micro-level any number of factors could have happened. Maybe the analyst decided that there was too much exposure to Anavex with $12M dollars worth of stock. Maybe the analyst who decided to buy AVXL took a position at another firm and his or her replacement isn't a fan of the company.
Lots of reasons to sell. But again, I don't expect to see a decrease in PW's holdings because I still think there is ample time for the stock to go up in value before the trials conclude and its too late to get out.