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Steve - I share your concern.
How is it both you and I know that the next Q and EOY results will be misses, and Andy doesn't ?
He really is the Shorts best friend.
Unless Uncle Sam comes to our rescue in the next 45 days, Q-4 might be worse than last week's.
Personally, I can't wait to see how low tax loss selling takes us.
Steve - Insiders buying ? Funny !
However, more than 1.7 million shares were recently distributed to insiders by the company.
CPI could get us $0.30 or more today ... But remember ....
Every PLUG Rally fades within days to New Lows
News out of Washington will lift all pturds today.
Really old news about two plants which can't make commercial quantities of Hydrogen.
B_B - Good Call ... But your recovery was very short-lived.
My Error ?
My last check he was at a Florida Utility.
There goes my perfect batting average.
WTM - Gee. PLUG Missed their own deadline ? Of Less than 60 days ? By months ?
And don't forget, PLUG had already moved the Georgia Plant Goal Posts twice before.
The reason is : PLUG are a bunch of hydrogen Neophytes from Andy on down. They hadn't been in the Bulk Hydrogen before, but so what ? "we can just throw money at it".
After all, "Hydrogen is Easy !!!!!"
Let's put an Air conditioner Repairman in Charge ! What a bunch of Amateurs !
Punch Line : Steve Baker is No Longer at PLUG. I wonder who's running the show now ? I Nominate, Sanjay
Another interesting read:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/plug-power-stock-going-concern-56ccb629?siteid=yhoof2
WTM : A key take away :
"Managing cash flow until the hydrogen business achieves the scale needed to make money isn’t easy. Plug investors are finding that out."
Seeking Alpha's Quant system rates it Strong Sell.
Everyone is piling on ! Sharks feasting !
Someone let us all know when a positive estimate comes in, please.
Plug Power (PLUG) Stock Forecast & Price Targets :
Date Brokerage Action Rating Price Target Upside/Downside on Report Date:
Today : Morgan Stanley reduced its PT from $9 to $3.50 but maintained its “equal-weight” rating on PLUG.
11/10/2023 Susquehanna Lower Target Positive ->Positive $13.00 -> $9.00 +154.24%
11/10/2023 Truist Financial Lower Target Hold -> Hold $8.00 -> $6.00 +69.49%
11/10/2023 Jefferies Financial Group Reiterated Rating Buy -> Hold $6.00 +69.97%
11/10/2023 BMO Capital Markets Lower Target Market Perform -> Market Perform $8.00 -> $3.75 +9.01%
11/10/2023 Oppenheimer Downgrade Outperform -> Market Perform
11/10/2023 Northland Securities accuracy rating Downgrade Outperform -> Market Perform $7.00 +18.04%
11/10/2023 Royal Bank of Canada Downgrade Outperform -> Sector Perform $12.00 -> $5.00 -15.68%
11/10/2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. Downgrade Overweight -> Neutral $10.00 -> $6.00 +1.18%
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLUG/price-target/
Correction : A Multi-Year LOW !
B_B - Is that artist's concept from Popular Science (FICTION) or Popular Mechanics ?
Not in our Lifetimes Bob !
And I don't invest in a Science Fiction picture.
B_B - Unfortunately, nearly ALL of the media attention has been Very Negative and this trend will continue as well !
Downgrades, Lawsuits, Customer and Institutional Investors exiting.
Here is a GREAT Example of the Media Attention from WTM:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173204251
B_B - YIKES !
ALL Negative ? And MORE Downgrades coming ?
Is this the "Media Attention" you have been referring to ?
OUCH !
WTM - I have a problem with the USDOE giving US Taxpayer money to a French Company.
B_B - We will most likely see some green tomorrow after Friday's Bloodbath, but the PLUG Trend remains negative, and PLUG remains a poor investment.
This week we will see more Downgrades and Downward adjustments from analysts.
What I am watching for is Institutional selling, Lawsuits, the Gov't shutdown. These represent some very serious downward pressure on PLUG's share price, and could easily drive us BELOW $3.00's by year end.
Without positive news, PLUG will continue to fall into 2024.
WTM - You don't want to know !
And I suggest everyone listen to the call, critically, the way the analysts do. Pay particular attention to Paul's explanation of Restricted Cash and Inventory Carry.
As a CEO, if my CFO said that to me, he would be fired on the spot ! And this after HIS Accounting Fiasco !
It is clear to everyone that Paul either doesn't know either or can't explain it in intelligent terms. Lot's of double talk, that gives no comfort to analysts or investors.
He was also challenged when explaining other financials (was he Lying? Obfuscating ?).
As for the $1 billion in inventory? OUCH !
This is BAD NEWS and has been a millstone around our necks for more than one Quarter. Think; Unsold goods (why are they unsold?) sitting in storage, eating money instead of being revenue to the top line and profits to the bottom line. Have you ever heard of the poorly run auto companies who used to destroy unsold cars in inventory and take a write down ? .... Prepare yourself.
WTM - did you ever wonder how I can talk about technical issues in detail like hydrogen blending, as well as financial and management issues?
Thank You Veterans !
Every Day should be Veterans Day.
Who Recently Said :
"Your patience will be rewarded." ?
"The stock will be fine ." ?
"Profitability in the next Quarter" ?
Just like the DOWNGRADES on Tuesday the LAWSUITS will be following, and these will be Very Strong Lawsuits that I doubt PLUG could win.
Legal fees will be another drain on capital.
Paolo is correct, but it is much easier said than done.
First, it needs to be a blend, because pure hydrogen is much more difficult to handle than Nat Gas. So 10-20% might work.
Higher concentrations , and your kitchen range and water heaters will explode.
Hydrogen in a gas pipeline can't be used in fuel cells either because fuel cells need 99.999% pure hydrogen. Even with expensive gas separation technologies we can't get to those purities.
So yes, low ratios of hydrogen can be comingled in natural gas pipelines after some extensive retrofitting. We already know this works. As a ratepayer, I don't want to pay extra for something I don't need.
But here is the difficult issue. We know hydrogen works in many different applications, so would you really want to add expensive hydrogen into a gas pipeline and displace the cheaper natural gas ? The mix works, but the economics may not.
Sorta like , putting Premium Gasoline is an old Volkswagen ; sure it works, but it was just fine with regular gasoline at $1.00 cheaper
B_B - Ooops.
B_B - Lots of Downgrade and Lower Estimates today and more next week.
Analysts don't like being lied to either.
WTM - This is really BAD NEWS for PLUG !
First, how is it that a French company can have access to USDOE funding ? I would have thought that these monies were only for US companies .
Great news for Ballard , NEL, Bosch and Siemens !
And Air Liquide , " was chosen as a partner for six out of seven planned clean hydrogen hubs by the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE), which will allocate $7 billion for the projects within the bipartisan infrastructure law."
6 out of 7 ? That doesn't leave much for PLUG.
But no surprise, since Air Liquide has been doing hydrogen production successfully for 60 years, while PLUG looks like the gang that couldn't shoot straight and have been unsuccessfully producing bulk hydrogen for ZERO YEARS !
WTM - How can it get WORSE ?
Easy ! In the next few days there will be a rash of DOWNGRADES, Share Estimate Reductions, and FUNDS DUMPING because PLUG is a PENNY STOCK !
This will increase the downward pressure on PLUG's share price even more.
So by December 1, PLUG will be $3.00 OR LESS, and every shareholder will be in the RED. Trigger TAX LOSS SELLING.
TAX LOSS SELLING this year will be EPIC.
And the thing I like most about tax loss selling is even the LONGS want the share price to tank in order to maximize their losses. The rare time that shorts and longs are aligned.
WTM - Please note I have never mentioned Bankruptcy, and I am only discussing how things could get worse for shareholder in the short term. Bankruptcy opens an entirely new discussion, which no one at PLUG is prepared for.
WTM & mira & B_B & Steve & Banger -
They can't get a grasp on Georgia because they have never done a hydrogen plant to scale before. They are all neophytes. It would be like any of us trying to build a hydrogen plant. They don't even know what they don't know.
My proof ? They boasted : "Hydrogen is Easy."
Banger and I have been around industrial gases for years and we KNOW Hydrogen is the most difficult gas to manage, and Liquid Hydrogen is orders of magnitude more complex. I stated here last year that Georgia wouldn't be fully operational until 2024 the earliest. How is it that I knew this and PLUG didn't? Neophytes !
As for the DOE funding, I am guessing that this is DEAD. Just think, when they began discussing with the DOE, PLUG's share price was over $10.00 and it's market cap was $2 Billion more than it is today. Any lender reading yesterday's numbers would laugh at someone coming in for a $1.5 Billion loan. Every critical metric was on a downtrend !
Think of getting a trade-in value for your car for a newer model and then totaling the car before delivery. And PLUG doesn't have insurance.
I described a worse case scenario yesterday, but just wait !
It gets Worse.
NO !
I feel the need to update this pre-earnings note from yesterday after reading the ER, the Shareholder Letter and the CC. All were much worse than anyone guessed. So now :
NO- Georgia
NO - DOE Funding
NO - IRA Rules or Credits
NO - HUB Monies
NO - Major Deals
NO - Profitability, only more LOSSES
NO - Hydrogen
NO - More Money
But we will be promised a better next Q (Again) , with lots of "PediStool" customers and MOU's which never materialize or generate revenues.
Sanjay blubbered about big deals in the pipeline, but who is going to do business with a company that may not be here in a year.
This is a worse ( even worser) case scenario, but I don't think anything positive will be coming out of Washington before November 17th either.
Several DOWNGRADES are coming and raising Capital will be much more difficult in 2024. These guys are a Credit nightmare.
Steve - The ER was BAD, but the call was even worse. Hence this Mega-Dump !
The longer they spoke (hemmed and hawed) the more damage they did. The analysts were not happy and you could hear it in their voices.
I caught Andy and Sanjay in several blatant lies and Paul was the worst of all.
MORE BAD NEWS IS ON THE WAY.
runner - Was yesterday PLUG 's fault?
Is today PLUG's fault?
As usual, the earnings were leaked so certain people could take appropriate measures.
"Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the Universe ! "
Abundance does not mean Availability.
As someone likes to say :
Here is my take:
Going Concern Language in the 10-Q:
"In light of the Company’s projected capital expenditure and operating requirements under its current business plan, the Company is projecting that its existing cash and available for sale and equity securities will not be sufficient to fund its operations through the next twelve months from the date of issuance of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
These conditions and events raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.
In accordance with Accounting Standards Update ("ASU") No. 2014-15, “Disclosure of Uncertainties about an Entity’s Ability to Continue as a Going Concern (Subtopic 205-40),” management has evaluated whether there are conditions and events, considered in the aggregate, that raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern within one year after the date of the condensed consolidated financial statements are issued and has determined that the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern is dependent on its ability to raise additional capital. To alleviate the conditions and events that raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern, management is currently evaluating several different options to enhance the Company’s liquidity position, including the sale of securities, incurrence of debt or other financing alternatives."
B_B - I always wonder about what you consider important metrics. And this is one of the most serious problems with PLUG.
Management doesn't know how to measure and manage the important metrics. No one in PLUG knows the RAROC on Georgia or Texas, or any of the deals they have done. Real companies do, before they spend a dime; Especially on acquisitions and major capital projects like Georgia. And as investors we will never know, even though this is how we should be measuring PLUG's value and performance.
Andy, Paul and Jose might all be hard workers and nice people, but that is NOT what is needed in the C-Suite. PLUG's C-Suite is deep in incompetence .
B_B - Andy and Paul might be nice people, but they are in way over their heads !
Not knowing or not being able to measure the real values of the Walmart and Amazon deals is the most egregious example.
Paul should have been booted with the accounting scandal.
I share your views on Sanjay and also Jose. If either one became CEO, I would add to my short position.
If PLUG is going to reverse the trend , a real, professional CEO and CFO are needed. But... no Real Professional Leaders are going to live or work in Latham, NY.
B_B - Andy and Paul are crushing all of your dreams.
I am just the Play-by-Play announcer.
NO !
NO- Georgia
NO - DOE Funding
NO - IRA Rules or Credits
NO - HUB Monies
NO - Major Deals
NO - Profitability, only more LOSSES
But we will be promised a better next Q (Again) , with lots of "PediStool" customers and MOU's which never materialize or generate revenues.
This is a worse case scenario, but I don't think anything positive will be coming out of Washington before November 17th either.
B_B - Agreed. PLUG is not green.
B_B - BE is not green, but neither is PLUG.
More than 98% of the hydrogen used in fuel cells is grey. This includes PLUG fuel cells.