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WSJ Story - Oil Officials See Limit
Looming on Production
By RUSSELL GOLD and ANN DAVIS
November 19, 2007; Page A1
A growing number of oil-industry chieftains are endorsing an idea long deemed fringe: The world is approaching a practical limit to the number of barrels of crude oil that can be pumped every day.
Some predict that, despite the world's fast-growing thirst for oil, producers could hit that ceiling as soon as 2012. This rough limit -- which two senior industry officials recently pegged at about 100 million barrels a day -- is well short of global demand projections over the next few decades. Current production is about 85 million barrels a day.
The world certainly won't run out of oil any time soon. And plenty of energy experts expect sky-high prices to hasten the development of alternative fuels and improve energy efficiency. But evidence is mounting that crude-oil production may plateau before those innovations arrive on a large scale. That could set the stage for a period marked by energy shortages, high prices and bare-knuckled competition for fuel.
The current debate represents a significant twist on an older, often-derided notion known as the peak-oil theory. Traditional peak-oil theorists, many of whom are industry outsiders or retired geologists, have argued that global oil production will soon peak and enter an irreversible decline because nearly half the available oil in the world has been pumped. They've been proved wrong so often that their theory has become debased.
The new adherents -- who range from senior Western oil-company executives to current and former officials of the major world exporting countries -- don't believe the global oil tank is at the half-empty point. But they share the belief that a global production ceiling is coming for other reasons: restricted access to oil fields, spiraling costs and increasingly complex oil-field geology. This will create a global production plateau, not a peak, they contend, with oil output remaining relatively constant rather than rising or falling.
The emergence of a production ceiling would mark a monumental shift in the energy world. Oil production has averaged a 2.3% annual growth rate since 1965, according to statistics compiled by British oil giant BP PLC. This expanding pool of oil, most of it priced cheaply by today's standards, fueled the post-World War II global economic expansion.
On Oct. 31, Christophe de Margerie, the chief executive of French oil company Total SA, jolted attendees at a London conference by openly labeling production forecasts of the International Energy Agency, the sober-minded energy watchdog for industrialized nations, as unrealistic. The IEA projects production will grow to between 102.3 million and 120 million barrels a day by 2030. Mr. de Margerie said production by 2030 of even 100 million barrels a day will be "difficult."
Speaking Clearly
This is "the view of those who like to speak clearly, honestly, and [are] not just trying to please people," he bluntly declared. The French executive said many existing oil fields are being depleted at rates that will damage their geologic structures, which will limit future output more than most people allow. What's more, some nations endowed with large untapped pools of oil are generating so much revenue from their current production that they feel they don't need to further develop their fields, thus putting another cap on output.
Earlier this month, James Mulva, the chief executive of ConocoPhillips, echoed those conclusions in a speech at a Wall Street conference: "I don't think we are going to see the supply going over 100 million barrels a day.... Where is all that going to come from?" He questioned whether the industry has enough support services and people to execute projects to add that much oil production.
Even some officials from member states of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which has long insisted on its ability to supply the world with fuel for decades hence, are breaking ranks and forecasting limits. The chairman of Libya National Oil Corp. said at the same London conference the world will have difficulty producing more than 100 million barrels a day.
A former head of exploration and production at Saudi Arabia's national oil company, Sadad Ibrahim Al Husseini, has also gone public with doubts. He said in London last month that he didn't believe there were enough engineers or equipment to ramp up production fast enough to keep up with the thirsty global economy. What's more, he said, new discoveries are tending to be smaller and more complex to develop.
Many leaders of the industry still dismiss the idea that there is reason to worry. "I am no subscriber to the theory that oil supplies have already peaked," said BP's chief executive, Tony Hayward, earlier this month in a speech in Houston.
Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Rex Tillerson has said that if companies had better access to the world's oil reserves, production would increase and prices would go down. "Sufficient hydrocarbon resources exist to play their role in meeting this growing global demand, if industry is allowed to access them," he said in a speech this month. If access were granted, Exxon Mobil believes the industry would be able to raise fuel production to meet demand in 2030 of 116 million barrels a day.
The oil industry has long been beset by doom-and-gloom scenarios, which so far haven't panned out. "The entire oil industry in the late 1970s was convinced the price [of oil] would be $100 by 1990 and we would need huge oil shale mines" to exploit oil locked away tightly in rock, says Michael C. Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc. Of course, that didn't happen, as discoveries ushered in new eras of low-priced oil in the mid-1980s through the late 1990s.
U.S. government experts are optimistic -- to a point. The Energy Information Administration, the data arm of the Energy Department, forecasts world oil production will hit 118 million barrels a day by 2030. But the agency warns that its prediction might not pan out if resource-rich nations such as Venezuela and Iraq don't invest enough in their operations.
"We know that the world is not running out of energy resources, but nonetheless, above-ground risks like resource nationalism, limited access and infrastructure constraints may make it feel like peak oil just the same, by limiting production to something far less than what is required," said Clay Sell, deputy secretary of energy, in a speech in October. Resource nationalism refers to tightening state control of oil fields to achieve political aims, often by restricting outsiders' ability to develop the oil for world markets.
'Undulating Plateau'
Two or three years ago, it was far more common for oil analysts and officials to trumpet the potential of new technology to harvest more oil. In a report last year, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a prominent adviser to energy companies, made the comforting prediction that oil production could reach 110 million barrels a day by 2015, and "more than meet any reasonable high growth rate demand scenario we can envisage" up to that date. Because of progress being made in extracting oil through new methods, CERA said it found "no evidence" there would be a peak in oil flows "any time soon." In a later report, CERA said world oil production won't peak before 2030 and that even when it does, production will resemble an "undulating plateau" for one or more decades before declining gradually.
Oil companies have seen several years of bull-market prices, and thus of trying to produce more. This has given their executives a better sense of what is and isn't possible.
One limit: Many people think most of the world's giant fields already have been discovered. By 1970, oil-industry explorers had discovered 10 giants that could each produce more than 600,000 barrels a day, according to Matt Simmons, chairman of energy investment banking firm Simmons & Co. International. Exploration in the next 20 years, to 1990, yielded only two. Since 1990, despite billions in new spending, the industry has found only one field with the potential to top 500,000 barrels a day, Kazakhstan's Kashagan field in the Caspian Sea. And Mr. Simmons notes it is proving expensive and difficult to extract.
Big strikes are still possible. This month, Petróleo Brasileiro SA announced a deep-water find off Brazil's Atlantic coast that appears to be the largest discovery since Kashagan.
But some of the most promising geological formations are in locations that are inhospitable, for reasons of geography or, especially, politics and strife. Output from Iraq's rich fields is unlikely to grow much until security improves and outside investment returns. The future of Iranian and Nigerian production is likewise clouded by geopolitical and local instability.
Labor and construction bottlenecks also are making it difficult to develop proven fields. One of the largest obstacles is the booming commodity markets themselves: The prices of raw materials used in oil-field platforms and equipment has escalated. And during the years of low or moderate oil prices in the 1980s and 1990s, companies didn't develop enough geologists and other skilled workers to supply today's needs. "Years of underinvestment in new talent have led to a limited and aging pool of skilled workers," noted Andrew Gould, the CEO of oil-service giant Schlumberger Ltd., last month.
High oil prices have also led to steep cost inflation for drilling rigs and other equipment. Costs have soared so much that the industry is falling behind in the investment needed to sate expected future demand. To meet demand forecasts of 90 million barrels of oil a day in 2010, the industry needed to have spent $350 billion on drilling and producing in 2005, argues Larry G. Chorn, chief economist of Platts, the energy and commodities-information division of McGraw-Hill Cos. But the International Energy Agency estimates that spending on oil-field production in 2005 came to only about $225 billion, he says.
A failure to spend enough in the past few years "may have already put the industry behind the spending curve," Mr. Chorn says. As a result, he predicts "temporary shortages over several years, causing debilitating price spikes."
Compounding the problem: Most of the world's biggest fields are aging, and production at them is declining rapidly. So, just to keep global production at current levels, the industry needs to add new production of at least four million daily barrels, every year. That need is roughly five times the daily production of Alaska, with its big Prudhoe Bay field -- and it doesn't assume any demand growth at all.
Rate of Decline
Mr. Simmons scoffs at estimates that production from proven fields will decline only 4.5% a year. He thinks a more realistic rate of decline is 8% to 10% a year, especially because modern technology actually succeeds in depleting fields faster.
If he's right, the industry needs to add new daily production of at least eight million barrels -- 10 times current Alaskan production -- just to stay even.
Mr. Simmons thinks the world needs to shift its energy focus from climate change to more immediate concerns. "Peak oil is likely already a crisis that we don't know about. At the furthest out, it will be a crisis in 2008 to 2012. Global warming, if real, will not be a problem for 50 to 100 years," he says.
Oil executives who believe a production ceiling is coming are making plans to stay relevant in a world where oil production is constrained.
Mr. de Margerie said at Total's annual meeting this spring that the company was "looking into" nuclear-industry investments and had hired nuclear experts to help make strategic decisions. ConocoPhillips recently said it was considering building a commercial-scale plant to turn plentiful U.S. coal into natural gas.
Soaring energy prices have breathed new life into projects targeting "nonconventional" oil, such as that trapped in sand or shale. But these sources can't be tapped nearly as quickly or inexpensively as the big oil finds of the past.
Vivid Example
Canada's massive oil-sands deposits, which hold the largest oil reserves after Saudi Arabia's, offer a vivid example. They contain an estimated 180 billion barrels of oil. But after years of intensive development and tens of billions of dollars of investments, the sands are producing only a little more than 1.1 million barrels of crude a day. That's projected to reach three million a day by 2015. The oil deposits are so heavy that companies must either mine them or slowly steam them underground to get the oil to flow out of the sand.
Randy Udall, co-founder of the U.S. chapter of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, has written that these unconventional oil supplies are like having $100 million in the bank, but "being forbidden to withdraw more than $100,000 per year. You are rich, sort of."
As these uncertainties mount, there is growing hope that Saudi Arabia, which has about 20% of the world's oil reserves, would ride to the rescue if needed. Saudi Aramco, the national oil company, has embarked on an ambitious plan to increase its daily production by 30%, or three million barrels, early next decade, and thus reclaim the title of top producer from Russia. But Mr. Al Husseini, the former Saudi oil executive, now an independent consultant, said others aren't doing as much, leaving the world entirely dependent on Saudi Arabia to provide extra capacity.
"Everyone thinks that Saudi Arabia will pull us out of this mess. Saudi Arabia is doing all it can," he says in an interview. "But what it is doing, in the long run, won't be enough."
WSJ - Anyone have access to today's Wall Street Journal?
I don't get the WSJ but got an email from a friend that said:
"You might want to read the lead article "Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production"."
Can anyone find this story and post it here?
THANKS!
Kipp
Great trip guys! Thanks again for making the effort to get together. We'll have to do something similar in the future. Have a good Thanksgiving.
Kipp
Golden Phoenix Reports on Mine and Mill Activity at the Ashdown Molybdenum Project; Consistent Production of Quality Concentrates
Monday November 19, 5:00 am ET
SPARKS, Nev., Nov. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Golden Phoenix Minerals, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: GPXM - News) reports that significant progress continues in operations and production at the Ashdown Project, LLC, a molybdenum mine owned by Golden Phoenix and Win-Eldrich Mines, Ltd., located near Denio, Nevada.
During September the Ashdown mill returned to service following the successful relining of its ball mill. By October the operation was generating consistent production of quality concentrates, with recoveries increasing since restart to better than 90 percent. Four shipments have been sold during this period bringing the cumulative total since start-up in December 2006 to 14 shipments containing over 615,000 pounds of concentrate. The mill is presently completing Shipment #15. The market price of molybdenum oxide, which determines the adjusted price received for Ashdown concentrates, averaged $31.99 per pound since September.
In this same period, the mine continued ore extraction within #2 Raise in the Sylvia Stope and along the Sylvia drift. In accordance with MSHA directives, reinforcement of the main drift was completed involving cribbing, bolting, shotcreting and fireproofing. The development of the secondary escapeway also continued, with approval from the Bureau of Land Management to establish an access road and portal pad for the secondary escapeway decline. The mine also took delivery of a two-yard mucker and 10-ton haul truck to accelerate production.
Kent Aveson assumed the role of General Manager on October 15 and immediately initiated a review of all systems and procedures aimed at streamlining operations and enhancing safety, performance and efficiency. Staffing levels at Ashdown have reached 65, with GM Aveson implementing the following organizational changes:
Ron Johnson has joined the Ashdown team as Mill Superintendent. Mr. Johnson holds a degree in Metallurgical Engineering and was previously with Barrick's Turquoise Ridge mine in Golconda, Nevada. With 30 years experience in production, research and development, including 16 years in molybdenum and copper flotation, Mr. Johnson will focus on enhancing production and processing.
With the arrival of a Mill Superintendent, David Tretbar will transfer from Manager Metallurgical Services, responsible for improved product quality and higher recoveries in the mill, to Engineering Manager. In his new role, Mr. Tretbar will direct a wide range of technical support functions including ore control, mine planning and scheduling, reserve development and future expansion.
Darrin Quimby has been promoted from Safety Coordinator to Mine Superintendent. Since joining the Ashdown team, Mr. Quimby has demonstrated his knowledge of mining and his skills at organizing and leading mine crews.
Terry Perkins, the Qualified Person responsible for the metallurgical portion of the reserve study currently in process, was on site to review operations in advance of finalizing his section of the report. The reserve study, which will be both NI 43-101 and Guide 7 compliant, is designed to provide technical information that defines the Ashdown ore body in a standardized manner accepted in both the US and Canada.
Commenting on the progress at Ashdown, GM Kent Aveson stated, "Ashdown is moving forward with an emphasis on safety while achieving steadily improving operations. I am pleased with the workforce and their sense of ownership and pride in making the project successful. My mine and mill staff have recently done an outstanding job to increase ore production and improve the quality of our moly concentrates. We have a great resource and are growing the right team to develop the Ashdown Project into a first class operation."
Please visit the Golden Phoenix website at http://www.Golden-Phoenix.com/
Golden Phoenix Minerals, Inc. is a Nevada-based mining company committed to deliver value to its shareholders by acquiring, developing and mining superior precious and strategic metal deposits in North America using competitive business practices balanced by principles of ethical stewardship. Golden Phoenix owns the Mineral Ridge gold and silver property near Silver Peak, Nevada, the Northern Champion molybdenum mine in Ontario, Canada, and is manager/operator and majority owner of the Ashdown Project LLC gold and molybdenum property held jointly by Golden Phoenix Minerals, Inc. and Win-Eldrich Mines, Ltd. of Toronto, Canada through its US subsidiary, Win-Eldrich Gold, Inc.
Here is last months "TIC" report.
http://www.treasury.gov/press/releases/hp611.htm
U.S. "TIC" Report at 9:00EST Today:
This report was a shocker for the markets last month when it showed the first ever negative foreign investmet in U.S. debt. Minus $69 billion. Estimates for this report is plus $66 billion, if it is a negative number again????
Here is a link to the U.S. Treasury website that has more on the TIC report:
http://www.treasury.gov/tic/
Kipp
AEZ - Solberg 32-2 Well Tests At a Rate of Over 750 Barrels of Oil Equivalent Per day
DENVER, Nov. 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- American Oil & Gas, Inc. (Amex: AEZ - News) announced today that preliminary production testing has recently been completed on the Solberg 32-2 well, located within American's approximate 87,000 gross acre Goliath project in Williams County, North Dakota. American owns a non-operated 11.9% working interest (a net revenue interest of approximately 9.5%) in the well which was drilled to a total depth of approximately 14,400 feet as an offset to a Red River formation discovery well that was drilled and is owned by another operator. The Solberg 32-2 well tested at a restricted flow rate of approximately 2.1 million cubic feet of natural gas and 408 barrels of condensate (light oil) per day at an average flowing tubing pressure of 2,500 psi on a 13/64ths choke. Additional potentially productive intervals within the Red River formation have not yet been tested, but could be tested and possibly produced at a later date. The Solberg 32-2 well is currently shut-in and waiting on completion of a nearby natural gas processing plant, which is expected to be operational by year-end.
American and other joint interest owners are currently acquiring additional seismic data by conducting a 10.5 square mile 3-D seismic program in the area around the Solberg 32-2 well. Data obtained from this seismic program will assist in the selection of additional Red River offset locations to the Solberg 32-2 well, and may identify additional Red River targets in this trend. American's working interest in future wells will vary, and could be as high as 50%.
American Oil & Gas, Inc. is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in exploration, development and production of hydrocarbon reserves primarily in the Rocky Mountain region. Additional information about American Oil & Gas, Inc. can be found at the Company's website: http://www.americanog.com.
I confirmed Sat night dinner for 12 at Cili. They gave us wiggle room if we have more people. I am in K.C. at the moment headed back to Denver Thursday and Vegas Saturday Morning. ANY LAST MINUTE GUESTS: If you look at my previous posts here you will find all of the details for the dinner.
Travel Safe!
Kipp
Same Ameritrade problem but some NAS small caps too.????
TXCO - New Slides and IR Presentation
Worth listening to the call and looking at the slides.
http://www.txco.com/presentation.html
TXCO is going to ROCK this coming year. They are drilling, drilling, drilling, for Oil, Gas, and Heavy Oil in south Texas. Thousands of well targets with 750,000 acres. New 3D technology, horizontal drilling, frac, and they own and operate rigs. Oil lifting cost of $10 in their main field. The wild card is the billions of barrels of heavy oil in the San Miguel tar sands play.
This company is going to be a zipcode changer!
Kipp
TXCO - New Slides and IR Presentation
Worth listening to the call and looking at the slides.
http://www.txco.com/presentation.html
TXCO is going to ROCK this coming year. They are drilling, drilling, drilling, for Oil, Gas, and Heavy Oil in south Texas. Thousands of well targets with 750,000 acres. New 3D technology, horizontal drilling, frac, and they own and operate rigs. Oil lifting cost of $10 in their main field. The wild card is the billions of barrels of heavy oil in the San Miguel tar sands play.
Kipp
TXCO - New Slides and IR Presentation
Worth listening to the call and looking at the slides.
http://www.txco.com/presentation.html
TXCO is going to ROCK this coming year. They are drilling, drilling, drilling, for Oil, Gas, and Heavy Oil in south Texas. Thousands of well targets with 750,000 acres. New 3D technology, horizontal drilling, frac, and they own and operate rigs. Oil lifting cost of $10 in their main field. The wild card is the billions of barrels of heavy oil in the San Miguel tar sands play.
Kipp
Excellon Expands Rodilla with Additional Massive Sulphide Intercepts and Announces High Grade Assays
Tuesday November 13, 10:11 am ET
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Nov. 13, 2007) - Excellon Resources Inc. (TSX VENTURE:EXN - News) announces four additional significant massive sulphide and sulphide breccia intercepts, ranging from 3.1 to 15.2 metres (m) thick (estimated true thickness) in ongoing drilling on the Rodilla Manto (see table below). The mineralized intercepts in these four vertical holes consist largely of massive sphalerite with subordinate galena and 10 to 20% barite gangue. Assays for these holes are pending. The Rodilla Manto is rapidly emerging as a sub-horizontal massive sulphide lens already 60 by 60 m in plan that appears to strengthen, thicken and deepen to the north-northwest (NNW). Follow-up drilling is focused on enlarging the body to the northwest, where it is completely open.
Assays have been received for two of the Rodilla Manto holes (LP405 and LP408) announced October 16, 2007 (see table below). These two holes respectively show silver values of 282 and 632 g/t (8.2 and 18.4 oz/T); 4.7 and 9% lead; and 12.1 and 10.9% zinc. These values are comparable to those of the Rodilla Manto discovery hole (LP-326), which cut 2.0 m (estimated true thickness) of massive sulphides grading 1,143 g/t (36.8 oz/T) silver with 8.3% lead and 10.7% zinc. Assays have also been received for LP404, which cut 1.0 m of sulphide breccia between the Rodilla and Guadalupe Mantos (see table below).
As known, the Rodilla Manto appears to strengthen, coalesce, thicken and deepen along a central NNW-oriented axis from LP413 to LP424. It remains completely open to the northwest past LP424, and drilling is active in this area. The transition along the axis is pronounced, starting with a 12.5 m thick intercept in LP413 characterized by three massive sulphide layers, each about 2.0 m thick, separated by two incompletely mineralized 3.0 m thick limestone beds. This partial mineralization has disappeared 22 m to the north where LP408 cut 14.2 m of massive sulphides in the same interval. LP424 lies 44 m NNW of LP408 and cut a slightly thicker (15.3 m) massive sulphide interval that bottoms 14.0 m deeper than LP408. Transition away from the axis is also marked, with holes to the east cutting sulphides that diminish progressively to traces. In contrast, holes to the west of the axis cut mineralization 2.0 to 4.8 m thick that rises towards the Guadalupe Manto elevation. Hole LP404 cut 1.0 m of well-mineralized sulphide breccia (see table below) at the elevation of the lower Guadalupe Manto, 40 m west of the uppermost part of the Rodilla Manto, indicating that the link between the two mantos may be made in this general area.
Assay results are also reported for two previously announced sulphide intercepts drilled off the northwestern edge of the Guadalupe South Manto (LP391 & LP392) and three holes drilled in sulphide breccia flanking the main Guadalupe Manto (LP383, 384 & 385) (see press release of August 22, 2007). Results for the two Guadalupe South Manto holes are comparable to the overall high-grade values shown by this manto. Notably one of the three holes in the Guadalupe Manto Breccia is exceptionally high in silver (1,219 g/t or 35.5 oz/T).
"The Rodilla Manto continues to grow quickly and we are pleased to see the strong north-northwest axis running parallel to the neighbouring Guadalupe Manto. Our geologists believe we can detect these structural controls in our geophysical surveys, which should greatly aid our exploration in this completely overburden covered high-potential area," said Richard W. Brissenden, Excellon's CEO and president. "We are also pleased to see strong silver values in the sulphide breccias as we blend this material with high-grade lead and zinc ore to maintain a more constant mill feed grade."
To view the Assay Results table, please visit the following link: http://www.ccnmatthews.com/docs/assayERI1113.pdf.
To view the Location Map (Map 1) & the Mantos and Recent Drill Hole Locations (Map 2), please visit the following link: http://www.ccnmatthews.com/docs/ERImap1113.pdf.
Qualified Persons
Dr. Peter Megaw, PhD, CPG, and Mr. John Sullivan, BSc., PGeo., have acted as the Qualified Persons, as defined in National Instrument 43-101, for this disclosure and have supervised the preparation of the technical information on which this press release is based.
Dr. Megaw has a PhD in geology and more than 25 years of relevant experience focused on exploring silver and gold systems in Mexico. He is a Certified Professional Geologist (CPG 10227) by the American Institute of Professional Geologists and an Arizona Registered Geologist (ARG 21613). Dr. Megaw is not independent of Excellon as he is a shareholder.
Mr. Sullivan is an economic geologist with over 35 years of experience in the mineral industry. Most recently a senior geologist at a Toronto-based international geological and mining engineering consulting firm, he has evaluated properties and prepared National Instrument 43-101 reports on gold and base metal projects in Canada and internationally. Mr. Sullivan is not independent of Excellon as he is an officer and holds common share purchase options.
About Excellon
Excellon, a self-sustaining mineral resource company operating in Durango State, Mexico, is committed to building value through production, expansion and discovery. The Company is producing silver, lead and zinc from high grade manto deposits on its Platosa Property, strategically located in the middle of the Mexican silver belt. In fiscal 2008, Excellon's focus is on increasing its Mineral Resources through an aggressive $11-million exploration program, expanding its operation, and studying the feasibility of building a mill at site. The Platosa Property, not fully explored, has several geological indicators of a large mineralized system, the tracking of which Excellon believes will lead to the discovery of a world class deposit.
utcheevis - This board was founded to find value microcap investments. We like TXCO and CXPO.OB as undervalued oil/gas investments. Speculative trading is not what interests people here.
Kipp
timhyma - Thanks! The thing about grains that makes it "different this time" (those are the three most dangerous words for investors) is that growers can contract record high prices way out into the future. In the past growers could only profit from the sale of un-hedged grain in the bin, sold spot, during a weather, or government policy induced price spike. Now we have global inventories at all time lows, and we've decided to burn our food. Couple all of that with a falling U$D and the Mississippi Valley may replace the Silicon Valley!
Buy a little ISX.V, could be a lotto ticket!
Good Luck!
Kipp
Grain prices on CBOT, link:
Here is where you can track grain prices if interested.
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,949,00.html
Friday's USDA reports had the
government estimating the '07 corn crop at 13.168 billion
bushels, down 150 million bushels from last month and
compared to 13.261 as the average pre-report
"guess-timate." The yield is now estimated at 153
bushels/acre, down 1.7 bushels/acre from last month. The
government left the wheat production number unchanged
from last month's estimate, and it estimated the '07
soybean crop at 2.594 billion bushels, down 4 million
bushels from last month and compared to the average
"guess-timate" on LaSalle Street of 2.60 billion bushels.
The yield is now 41.3 bushels/acre, down 0.1 from the
last month. On balance, the reports were supportive of
the grains, and prices are looking strong.
Kipp
I am a commodity bull! Our economy will have winners and losers. Farmers and oil drillers are winners! Housing is a loser, discount retailers like Walmart and Cosco will sell a lot of stuff. One thing we need to watch is how much of the retailers yoy gains are from higher prices. If you sold the same gallons of milk at $2 as $4 per gallon, are your sales really up? Or are you just handling more dollars. Now if you can maintain a 10% margin, your earnings are double on the same sales volume! It's all about maintaining margin!
Kipp
Home Depot Hit by Housing Market; 3Q Profit Falls Nearly 27 Percent With Fewer Renovations
ATLANTA (AP) -- The Home Depot Inc. reported a 26.8 percent drop in third-quarter profits Tuesday as a deteriorating housing market put a crimp on home renovations.
The nation's largest home improvement store chain said it earned $1.09 billion, or 60 cents a share, for the three months ending Oct. 28, compared with a profit of $1.49 billion, or 73 cents a share, for the same period a year ago.
Frank Blake, the Atlanta-based company's chairman and CEO, said the company is trying to weather the housing market slump and looking for future opportunities.
"We are facing a tough environment as housing indicators continue to deteriorate. Our financial performance in the third quarter reflects these tough conditions," Blake said in a statement. "But we are making significant improvements in our business and we will continue to invest thoughtfully for the long-term health of the company."
The results matched Wall Street expectations, as analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial were expecting earnings of 60 cents a share.
Revenue in the quarter dropped 3.5 percent to $18.96 billion, compared with $19.65 billion the same period a year ago, and fell short of analyst expectations of $19.39 billion.
Lundin Earnings:
http://www.kitco.com/pr/1267/article_11132007023731.pdf
I sure wish EuroZinc would have held out longer. The SST deal for the silver alone would have been a huge deal for EuroZinc.
Remember HBM at $3, or Breakwater at $.30, RNO $1, Blue Pearl $6........The good ole days, and they were good!
I think some of our core jr. silver and gold stocks represent the same value buys today!
Kipp
POT is getting smoked!
All of my fertilizer watch list stocks are down 6-12% after a massive 100-500% run up in most. I have some ISX.V and it is flat. ISX is changing their name to "Potash ONE". Lonnnngggg overdue for a correction on these fertilizer stocks, P/E's were getting way up there.
Kipp
Zaruma tables can be read at this link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/071112/zaruma_luz_del_cobre.html?.v=1
Zaruma Resources: Announces Drill Results and Commencement of Construction at the Luz del Cobre Copper Project (Sonora, Mexico)
Monday November 12, 2:32 pm ET
TORONTO, Nov. 12 /CNW/ - Zaruma Resources Inc., (TSX-ZMR) today announced the following results from the drilling programme which commenced on October 1, 2007.
On the southwest end of Luz del Cobre, five holes were drilled to assess the undefined extension of the mineralization, each drill test roughly a 25 metre step-out from past drill holes along adjacent drill sections also spaced 25 metres apart. All five holes successfully encountered encouraging copper mineralization with additional drilling planned to further extend the limits of the southwestern margin of the existing ore reserves.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
DRILL SEC. DRILL ID FROM, M. TO, M. TRUE WIDTH M. COPPER
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150 NE LUZ-07-14 31.8 46.4 14.6 0.54%
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including 32.9 36 3.1 1.10%
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and 43.8 46.4 2.6 1.39%
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125 NE LUZ-07-15 59.9 65.15 5.25 0.34%
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100 NE LUZ-07-16 57.91 82.7 25.79 1.37%
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75 NE LUZ-07-17 54.55 72.5 17.95 0.46%
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175 NE LUZ-07-18 47.7 51.4 3.7 0.44%
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Drillhole LUZ-07-22 was drilled within the Luz del Cobre ore body to obtain sample material for additional metallurgical testing, but encountered old workings that required stopping the hole short of what was needed. The hole was terminated at 91.44 metres, but the following intersections confirmed the copper grades in this known part of the ore body;
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DRILL SEC. DRILL ID FROM, M. TO, M. TRUE WIDTH M. COPPER
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150 NE LUZ-07-22 68.9 82.3 13.4 1.87%
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82.3 89.39 Mine workings
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89.39 91.44 2.05 2.15%
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An additional 16 drill holes of the first phase of the exploration of the Trion-Luz del Cobre area are located along the northeasterly corridor, with the most northeasterly hole located approximately 150 metres west of Luz del Cobre, and the most distant hole situated 1,000 metres to the southwest. In a zone called "Calvario", the three most northeasterly holes drilled so far encountered encouraging results, supporting the possibility of additional mineralization near Luz del Cobre. Visible metallic copper was noted in two of the inclined holes. Further drilling is planned for this area.
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DRILL ID FROM, M. TO, M. INTERSECTED COPPER
WIDTH, M.
--------------------------------------------------------------
LUZ-07-20 65.7 83.2 17.5 0.99%
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LUZ-07-23 60.96 83.2 22.24 0.99%
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The true width of holes Luz-07-20 and 23 have not been calculated.
Assays were prepared by Jacobs Assay Lab-Registered Assayers, Tucson, Arizona, from pulps prepared by Sonora Sample Preparations, Hermosillo, Mexico. Results for the remaining drill holes are pending.
The Company also reported that at Luz del Cobre, field activities have commenced and the construction of on site facilities for the construction staff is under way. Senior staff is being engaged and the technical consultants for the plant construction and access roads as well as the mine and leach pad development are fast-tracking the project to production. The operational mine plan continues to be to produce 15 million pounds of cathode copper per year for more than five years, through an open pit mining, heap leach, solvent extraction, electro-winning operation. The current estimate to first production of cathodes from the plant is fourteen months.
The Company announced that a Report to Shareholders, which contains more details on the activity in the third quarter, is being filed on the Company's website and on SEDAR later today.
Costs incurred in Mexico for the nine months were $848,000, of which $407,000 was capitalized as Luz del Cobre project costs and some development drilling. For the same period in 2006, expenditures were $650,000, all written off.
The net loss for the year to September 30 was $905,000, or less than one cent per share, compared to $1,381,000 for the comparable period in 2006, a loss of $0.016 per share.
The President and CEO of Zaruma, Thomas Utter commented that: "Both the exploration programme and the construction of the Luz del Cobre mine and processing plant are being fast-tracked, with very good results in the short time since the financing was put in place, which started the signing of contracts and the engagement of staff. We look forward to providing regular reports on the progress of the construction and the drilling programme."
Zaruma Resources Inc. is listed on The Toronto and Frankfurt Stock Exchanges (symbol: ZMR). Common shares outstanding: 111,458,271.
This News Release contains forward-looking statements which are typically preceded by, followed by or including the words "believes", "expects", "anticipates", "estimates", "intends", "plans" or similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance as they involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including securing additional funding to continue its development programmes.
The drilling programme is under the supervision of Geologist James E. Poulter, the "Qualified Person" as defined in NI 43-101, and is responsible for the technical information presented in this news release.
For further information
Zaruma Resources Inc., 20 Toronto Street, 12th Floor, Toronto ON, M5C 2B8, Canada, Fax: (416) 367-3638, service@zaruma.com, www.zaruma.com
Dr. Thomas Utter, President and CEO, Tel.: 521 662 222 0063, 521 662 210 5650, thomas.utter@zaruma.com
Frank van de Water, CFO and Secretary, Tel.: (416) 869-0772, fvandewater@on.aibn.com
GORO - I want to see the P.P. price first. If it is low the stock may sell off to that level. If it is higher than the present price when announced it will be a positive all the way around. I also want to see those permits.
Kipp
Forex - Yen - Dollar The Week Ahead
Entire article worth the read:
http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/daily-forex-technical-report/2007-11-10.html
Part of the story:
"Risk aversion and carry trade unwinding will likely continue to dominate the markets with economic data taking a back seat. Note that a rate cut from Fed in Dec is now like a done deal. More bad news from the credit markets and the economy will continue to send stock markets lower and in turn boost yen and swissy. Dollar may indeed continue to benefit from such carry trade unwinding activities as all high yielders are dragged down.
US markets will start with holiday on Monday. Main focus will be on Wednesday's retail sales and PPI as well as Thursday's CPI. Other data include pending home sales, Fed budget, business inventories, regional Fed survey from NY state and Philadelphia, TIC capital flow and industrial production.
It is also big week for Sterling. PPI and CPI will be released with Quarterly Inflation Report from BoE. Employment report and retail sales will also be closely watched.
From Eurozone, Germany ZEW and Q3 GDP will be the main focus together with final HICP, industrial production and trade balance. Swiss ZEW will also be featured.
From Japan, BoJ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.50% again. Q3 GDP will also be closely watched.
From Australian, main focus will be on RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement."
Yen shock next market crisis
Fri Nov 9, 2007 1:18pm EST
By Mike Dolan - Analysis
LONDON (Reuters) - Just as renewed waves of forced asset sales and bank write-downs risk turning this year's credit market turmoil into a vicious circle, the Japanese yen looks set to deliver another shock to global markets.
An accelerating slide in the U.S. dollar (.DXY: Quote, Profile, Research) this week has been driven by a growing conviction that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be forced into further steep interest rate cuts.
And as dollar losses against the yen started to spiral on Friday, fears have risen of a mass unwinding of the yen "carry trade" -- currency trades funded by cheap, low interest rate yen and estimated to be worth up to $200 billion.
Sudden losses on these trades -- which thrive when currency market volatility is low -- could force speculative hedge funds to cut other market bets to fund those losses, and also reverse the flood of Japanese money invested overseas in recent years.
"The potential for a further carry unwind -- presuming we are now in a second wave of risk aversion -- is quite high now," said Michael Metcalfe, senior strategist at State Street.
"These waves of risk aversion are washing through markets one after the other and seem to be hitting the credit markets first, then equity markets and then the FX markets," added Metcalfe. "It's what happened in July and August and it seems to be what's happening again now."
THREE INJECTIONS
The global financial system supercharged historically low central bank interest rates in recent years in several ways but there were three powerful injections.
One was through repackaging bank loans into securities for sale to a wide range of investors, freeing up bank balance sheets to allow them to lend more. Those markets are now in meltdown after a U.S. mortgage market bust called into question valuations of these complex instruments.
The second was via leveraged buyouts by the likes of private equity firms, who used cheap credit to raise cash and pumped billions into stock markets via a wave of takeovers. The credit squeeze has put much of this activity on ice.
And the third amplifier was currency carry trades, with cheap yen financing at its core.
Now that too looks at risk.
ECHOES OF 1998?
The dollar set successive historic lows against the euro and 26-year lows against the British pound earlier this week.
But on Friday it lurched to an 18-month trough against the yen of 110.52 yen, breaking the stable 5-yen range it had held since the Fed discount rate cut in August reversed a flight from risky currency bets.
The lurch sent currency volatility measures haywire, forcing further closing of yen-funded positions in a self-feeding cycle.
BNP Paribas' currency volatility index surged to a near 3-month high of 9.6 pct on Friday, with implied one-month dollar/yen volatility soaring to more than 14 percent.
And that surge of more than six percentage points marks the biggest weekly rise in implied volatility since 1998 when the dollar tumbled 10 percent in a week after a Russian debt default and near-collapse of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management.
Volatility is simply an anathema to carry trades, which only make sense when there's seen to be a low risk that big currency swings will erase the interest rate pickup.
Hedge funds can borrow yen for three months at less than one percent annualized and put them on deposit in dollars or euros for about four percentage points more. That is a one-way bet as long as currency rates are stable.
But forward interest rate theory suggests that interest-rate differentials merely reflect a premium on the higher-yielding unit to compensate for the inherent risk of depreciation.
With the dollar now falling so sharply, the interest rate gain is being wiped out by exchange rate losses.
"Carry trades do not work in this sort on environment, they work in a low-volatility stable environment," said David Brickman, credit strategist at Lehman Brothers. "Therefore carry trades get unwound and dollar/yen has further to go."
HOW MUCH UNWINDS?
Policymakers have been fretting for over a year about the difficulties of estimating how much money might be caught up in a carry unwind -- not least because the money is a mix of speculative positions and Japanese capital seeking higher yields overseas.
Japan's top financial diplomat Hiroshi Watanabe earlier this year guessed investors might have borrowed between 10 and 20 trillion yen: at current exchange rates, anywhere up to $200 billion.
And the Bank for International Settlements in June warned that this was an accident waiting to happen.
"The underlying problem seems to be a too firm conviction on the part of investors that the yen will not be allowed to strengthen in any significant way," it said in a report.
"Investors might be better encouraged to consider the autumn of 1998, when the yen rose by more than 10 percent against the U.S. dollar in the space of two days, inflicting sizeable losses on those involved in the carry trade business."
Yen shock next market crisis
Fri Nov 9, 2007 1:18pm EST
By Mike Dolan - Analysis
LONDON (Reuters) - Just as renewed waves of forced asset sales and bank write-downs risk turning this year's credit market turmoil into a vicious circle, the Japanese yen looks set to deliver another shock to global markets.
An accelerating slide in the U.S. dollar (.DXY: Quote, Profile, Research) this week has been driven by a growing conviction that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be forced into further steep interest rate cuts.
And as dollar losses against the yen started to spiral on Friday, fears have risen of a mass unwinding of the yen "carry trade" -- currency trades funded by cheap, low interest rate yen and estimated to be worth up to $200 billion.
Sudden losses on these trades -- which thrive when currency market volatility is low -- could force speculative hedge funds to cut other market bets to fund those losses, and also reverse the flood of Japanese money invested overseas in recent years.
"The potential for a further carry unwind -- presuming we are now in a second wave of risk aversion -- is quite high now," said Michael Metcalfe, senior strategist at State Street.
"These waves of risk aversion are washing through markets one after the other and seem to be hitting the credit markets first, then equity markets and then the FX markets," added Metcalfe. "It's what happened in July and August and it seems to be what's happening again now."
THREE INJECTIONS
The global financial system supercharged historically low central bank interest rates in recent years in several ways but there were three powerful injections.
One was through repackaging bank loans into securities for sale to a wide range of investors, freeing up bank balance sheets to allow them to lend more. Those markets are now in meltdown after a U.S. mortgage market bust called into question valuations of these complex instruments.
The second was via leveraged buyouts by the likes of private equity firms, who used cheap credit to raise cash and pumped billions into stock markets via a wave of takeovers. The credit squeeze has put much of this activity on ice.
And the third amplifier was currency carry trades, with cheap yen financing at its core.
Now that too looks at risk.
ECHOES OF 1998?
The dollar set successive historic lows against the euro and 26-year lows against the British pound earlier this week.
But on Friday it lurched to an 18-month trough against the yen of 110.52 yen, breaking the stable 5-yen range it had held since the Fed discount rate cut in August reversed a flight from risky currency bets.
The lurch sent currency volatility measures haywire, forcing further closing of yen-funded positions in a self-feeding cycle.
BNP Paribas' currency volatility index surged to a near 3-month high of 9.6 pct on Friday, with implied one-month dollar/yen volatility soaring to more than 14 percent.
And that surge of more than six percentage points marks the biggest weekly rise in implied volatility since 1998 when the dollar tumbled 10 percent in a week after a Russian debt default and near-collapse of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management.
Volatility is simply an anathema to carry trades, which only make sense when there's seen to be a low risk that big currency swings will erase the interest rate pickup.
Hedge funds can borrow yen for three months at less than one percent annualized and put them on deposit in dollars or euros for about four percentage points more. That is a one-way bet as long as currency rates are stable.
But forward interest rate theory suggests that interest-rate differentials merely reflect a premium on the higher-yielding unit to compensate for the inherent risk of depreciation.
With the dollar now falling so sharply, the interest rate gain is being wiped out by exchange rate losses.
"Carry trades do not work in this sort on environment, they work in a low-volatility stable environment," said David Brickman, credit strategist at Lehman Brothers. "Therefore carry trades get unwound and dollar/yen has further to go."
HOW MUCH UNWINDS?
Policymakers have been fretting for over a year about the difficulties of estimating how much money might be caught up in a carry unwind -- not least because the money is a mix of speculative positions and Japanese capital seeking higher yields overseas.
Japan's top financial diplomat Hiroshi Watanabe earlier this year guessed investors might have borrowed between 10 and 20 trillion yen: at current exchange rates, anywhere up to $200 billion.
And the Bank for International Settlements in June warned that this was an accident waiting to happen.
"The underlying problem seems to be a too firm conviction on the part of investors that the yen will not be allowed to strengthen in any significant way," it said in a report.
"Investors might be better encouraged to consider the autumn of 1998, when the yen rose by more than 10 percent against the U.S. dollar in the space of two days, inflicting sizeable losses on those involved in the carry trade business."
Zoom - The beetles are spreading on their own at an alarming rate. However, what really makes it bad is that careless people take the logs out of the area with the beetles intact. They were talking about hunters taking infested firewood with them 100's of miles to non-infested forest. What we need is several days of minus 20 degree weather, they say that is the way Mother Nature kills the beetles. The big worry is the mother of all forest fires!
Kipp
OT - My wood pellet stove cooks!
In Colorado we have a pine beetle infestation that words can't describe. It is soon going to reach 1,000,000 acres! When you drive into the infested areas it looks like a copper-brown forest, not just a few trees here and there but ALL of the trees. Now a company is starting up a plant to convert the trees into wood pellets. I bought a pellet/corn stove a couple winters ago and it's great! I put it in the basement and it heats the house to the point that the natural gas forced air furnace only kicks in when it's really cold. What I really like is the tile on the main level is actually warm in the mornings and makes it very comfotable to your stocking feet. I have a Harmon and here is a link: http://www.harmanstoves.com/features.asp?id=26
When I first got it corn was $2/bshl and I burned the heck out of it, now it's around $4/bshl and wood is cheaper. It will be a great use of the beetle kill to burn it in my stove. Here is the story:
Keeping home fires burning
New mill to turn dead trees into pellet fuel
By Roger Fillion, Rocky Mountain News
November 9, 2007
Colorado's first wood-pellet mill owes its birth to pine beetles that are killing millions of trees near the town of Kremmling and across northwest Colorado.
The diseased trees will be the new Kremmling mill's chief input - a new twist for the pellet-fuel industry.
The 18,000-square-foot plant is billed as the largest west of the Mississippi. It's slated in February to start grinding trees into environmentally friendly pellets for wood-pellet stoves and industrial and commercial pellet boilers.
Many of the trees are too skinny or too cracked and old to be valuable as lumber.
"The dead and dying beetle kill was just piling up and was going to be a fire danger," said Mark Mathis, president of Confluence Energy, the mill's operator. "The community desperately needed to do something with this material."
Enter Mathis - who dreamed up the mill while pouring fuel into his home pellet stove - and about a half-dozen local property owners who are Confluence Energy investors. They've begun building an $8 million mill south of Kremmling, adjacent to the airport and a shuttered fiberboard plant. The Colorado Housing and Finance Authority has agreed to provide about $6 million in funding.
The mill will employ 18. Logging and trucking jobs are expected to bring Confluence Energy's employment to between 40 and 50. Pay will start at $34,500 a year.
"We wanted the starting pay to be 25 percent above the average paying job in Grand County," Mathis said.
The plant will process trees as small as 2 inches in diameter and from as far as 100 miles away. When fully operational, the mill will produce up to 120,000 tons of pellets a year for homes, schools and buildings.
"That would be a sizable mill," said Don Kaiser, executive director of the Pellet Fuels Institute.
The Virginia-based institute counts more than 80 pellet plants in North America, with more than 70 in the United States. The 80-plus mills produce more than 1.1 million tons of fuel a year.
Wood pellets were introduced in the 1970s, when the OPEC embargo sent oil prices soaring. While their use has been rising in this country, pellet stoves capture just 5 percent of the hearth industry marketplace vs. more popular gas and wood fireplaces and stoves.
By contrast, they're far more widespread in Europe and Scandinavia, where oil costs have been much higher.
In North America, the pellet mills often sit in the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, far from Colorado. Mills have been sprouting in the Southeast and Midwest.
The raw materials vary based on location. Maple, hickory and Douglas fir are among the woods used, in addition to other organic matter such as corn.
The institute's Kaiser said Confluence Energy's use of pine-beetle kill is novel: "This is the first I've heard of a plant using it as a primary source."
The pine-beetle outbreak has ravaged the Kremmling area and other parts of northwestern Colorado.
The region is estimated to contain 600,000 to 700,000 acres of dead and dying trees. The outbreak is expected eventually to cover more than 1 million acres.
The beetles, considered a natural part of a pine forest's life cycle, have been feasting on crowded, drought-weakened forests across Grand County, Summit County, Eagle County, Jackson County and elsewhere.
The problems arise when beetles drill through a tree's bark and lay eggs that hatch into wood-eating larvae. In a year or two, the green trees turn rust-colored and then lose all their needles before turning gray.
"There's not going to be a lot of lodgepole pines left over the next five to 10 years," said Eric Lovgren, Eagle County wildfire mitigation specialist.
The county agreed to sell Confluence Energy about 2,000 tons of diseased trees removed in and near Vail. The company agreed to buy the wood for $18 a ton.
Lovgren said the mill gives land managers more options to dispose of beetle-killed trees, particularly since the lumber often isn't attractive to commercial mills.
"There really aren't a lot of options to take your wood, especially the smaller-diameter logs and the dead and dying timber," Lovgren said.
The mill reportedly has generated little controversy in Kremmling, where residents once complained about the emissions from the old fiberboard plant. State regulators will monitor the pellet factory's emissions.
According to the Environmental Protection Agency, pellet stoves are "some of the cleanest-burning heating appliances available," and "because they pollute so little" don't require EPA certification.
In the Denver area, approved pellet stoves are exempt from state residential burning restrictions when a high-pollution advisory is in effect.
Bobwins - Schiff
I remember the first time I stopped to think about what's going on was during the natural gas price spike a few years ago. Someone on the VMC main board posted a gloom and doom energy paper that was like 50 pages or so on "Peak Oil". I must admit up until that time I was in la la land with everyone else who had been guzzeling $1.25 gas in a vehicle that got 12 mpg. "Peak Oil" what's that all about?
The real estate bubble came to view after I bought a new house in 1999 and IN 2005 the re-fi letters were coming several a day saying I could take $200-250,000 out and lower my rate to 3% and actually make a lower payment. B.S.!!!!
I went out and bought a diesel Jeep that gets 26mpg, a stove for the basement that burns wood pellets or corn. Got those new light bulbs and a programmable thermostat. I have cut my fossil fuel use 40%.
I spent a little while depressed about what is going on with the banks, declining dollar, energy prices, what my kids are going to face. I have recently come out of my funk and taken the actions available to me. I figure the airplanes will fly with or without me so I might as well get on them and take the family with. We may not be able to afford air travel for the masses some day, who knows?
Schiff hits you up side the head with a brick, makes you think about things the mainstream won't even touch. Gloom and Doom kills T.V. ratings!
At the end of the day I am more comfortable holding my savings in something the world needs to survive and perhaps even thrive. Food, housing, clothing, transportation and energy are really what matters to most of the world. Owning the companies that find, invest, produce, and deliver it are where I want to be.
Like Schiff, I have been laughed at for telling people what was going to happen to home prices, gas, and the banks. It's really an unpopular thing to tell people the truth about the U.S Dollar and what it will buy today compared to a few years ago. Most people just DON"T WANT TO HEAR IT!
Sorry for the rant, off to go buy some winter cloths before the price goes up!
Kipp
nuts - Please watch this clip and promise us you won't listen to these wall street talking heads! We will all do very well over time. These recommendations wrer made 3 months ago:
http://www.europac.net/Schiff-FOX-8-18-07_lg.asp
Listen to Schiff, Paplava, Coxe, etc. they have been spot on for 5 years!
Kipp
Schiff - I promise this is the last one, but you have got to watch this few minute video clip if you do nothing else all day. This is the best reminder of why NOT to watch the weekend business shows! Drinking the cool-aid!
http://www.europac.net/Schiff-FOX-8-18-07_lg.asp
Kipp
This Schiff interview is priceless!
http://www.europac.net/Schiff-Fox-12-31-06_lg.asp
Schiff on housing
Check out this 2006 interview, unreal!
http://www.europac.net/Schiff-Fox-12-16-06_lg.asp
Total Denial!
Peter Schiff - Video Archive
If you want to see some history unfolding, go to this link and watch the video interviews of Peter Schiff. CNBC regulars laugh at him, Larry Kudlow slams him, Realtors think he is insane for calling them on the housing bubble. The denial of our financial condition as a nation will really surprise you in these interviews.
http://www.europac.net/video.asp
Nobody's laughing now!
Kipp
bbotcs - Banks
The banks packaged up $400 billion subprime contaminated slime CDO's and sold them to stupid foreign investors who thought they were getting AAA rated debt. Now it is "F" rated. My questions:
Why would they want to buy more of our debt "instruments"?
Why would our dollar appreciate against other currencies?
How can anyone think we are at the end of this banking crisis?
Kipp
Ovidius - What was JP Morgan's 5 year ago forecast for where we are today? The major investment bankers have lied through their teeth and still are. They are imploding on a daily bases, the truth that comes out is 100% opposite of what they have been saying. Chances are if their lips are moving they are lying. And then there is the government telling us there is no inflation!
The people I am listening to have been right on for the past 5 years. Don Coxe, Jim Paplava, Peter Schiff, DR. Ron Paul.
All of the guys who have been right in the past 5 years are forecasting more sell off in the dollar. Higher commodity, energy, and precious metals prices, etc. are going to be a result of GLOBAL printing presses running full tilt cranking out fiat paper. I am not going to hang my hat on any paper currency, rather investing my money in companies that have large commodity resources, still in the ground, in "safe" countries. The Congo and Russia are less "safe" than Canada and Mexico.
It's amazing how well I am sleeping these days knowing I don't have to worry about another 50% decline in the dollar reducing my savings to rubble.
My 2 cents.
Kipp