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GERN (2.18) - I got a fill this morning at 2.16 and have lower GTC bids waiting .... there's technical support at around $2. I'm just in for a trade, not a long term position. It should get a bounce at some point in the coming days or weeks, in which case I'll be taking profits.
GCT - this has been a nice trader, though unfortunately I missed the morning dip into the low $9's. I just place a few more GTC orders (no pun intended) in case it dips again !
GCT -1.07 to 10.38, I've also been a buyer this morning for another trade .... with some GTC orders waiting both to buy more and sell depending on how the stock trades going forward.
I'll check out REI. I've owned it in the past. They do have huge reserves, so that's a big plus.
GTEC +.78 to 3.70, this stock has become a good trader ..... wish I had added a few shares at 2.70 this morning - it's up 37% since the 10am low !
VTLE prices 2.7M share offering at $54, led by BofA and Wells Fargo ..... so institutional investors consider the stock a "buy" at $54.
I think your critique of this latest acquisition is too harsh. While it increases oil production in 2024 by just 30%, it increases free cash flow by 90% according to their investor presentation. More importantly it increases their oil and gas reserves by 65%.
https://investor.vitalenergy.com/static-files/6e62615e-89d7-4432-8fa8-a7d7d2d15656
Including the acquisitions of earlier this year they have increased reserves by 109% YTD while roughly doubling the share count including the convertibles. Weak reserves have been a reason for the stock's low valuation, so these acquisitions have certainly helped in that regard.
I'm not enthusiastic about the latest acquisition, but also see some positives in it. We'll see how the stock does going forward and whether analysts reduce their ratings and or price targets. The average price target right now is $79.
VTLE - I need to read the details on the convertibles especially the conversion price. I'm too busy now with personal stuff.
Are there really that many oil companies trading at a forward multiple of under 5 ? I know of just a few. Which ones do you like ?
Of course when one issues shares of an undervalued company and pays market prices to purchase assets, that is inevitably value destruction by strict calculation, but investors may react differently. Reserves may have increased more substantially than production. Also the higher market cap and greater liquidity will potentially attract more institutional investors. So a rise in the PE could offset the reduction in EPS.
I don't like this deal, but I'm not nearly as negative on it as you are, at least from what I know so far.
VTLE -4.50 to 54.85, agreed, they're diluting substantially, depending also on the convertible terms which I haven't read. Even assuming double the share count, and just 30% increased NI, that cuts EPS estimates for 2024 from $20.43 down to $13.28 for a forward PE of 4.1.
I'm not selling based on this superficial analysis. The stock remains cheap, but not as cheap.
Maybe they're adding a lot of reserves which has been a concern and partly the reason for the low valuation ?
I'm busy with other things, but will review this deal more closely over the weekend. Thanks for alerting me about the acquisition. I get a flood of PRs each morning and missed seeing that one.
VTLE - I didn't realize that the notes were convertibles. That's not mentioned in the PR. What's the conversion price and other terms ? Also they stated they are issuing 2.5M shares. How are you getting 8M ?
[edit] I missed seeing the acquisition PR. I'll check it out.
SBOW - I think they're wise to raise some capital while oil prices are relatively high .... I own VTLE, CPE, SBOW, NOG and PTEN in the O&G sector. At current stock prices, VTLE is the cheapest and my favorite.
VTLE selling off on news of a capital raise, bonds and stock, but it's only roughly 15% dilution and they'll put the cash to good use. I added a few shares in pre-market at $53.97. Oil is near $90 and still rising ..... not good for the consumer, but good for oil producers. NG also showing some seasonal strength ahead of fall and winter.
TAST (6.21) sure is up a lot this year and y/y so lots of good news already priced in .... but the Q3 analyst estimates for EPS of $0.05 seem too low. Analysts were estimating Q2 EPS of just $0.02 yet the company posted adj EPS of $0.27. That said, the conf call is guiding for moderating margins in Q3. I'd guess adj EPS of $0.10 to $0.15 for Q3, but that's probably already priced in ..... so the stock may be near fair value now at around $6.
Wade - this board has had loads of multi-baggers over the years. Most recently GTEC was up 200% in just a few days. CUBI is up 400% from the March lows. AAOI was a board favorite that you held onto longer than most of us. HZNP was also a holding of mine and I introduced it to the board way back in 2015 - so you heard about it from me.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=117865988&txt2find=hznp
GERN short interest was up by 5M shares in 2 weeks at last report. You're the only one on this board who thinks it's a buy ..... there's strong technical support at $2, so if it drops another 10% I'll pick up a few shares for a trade, but that's about it. I like profitable companies, not ones that burn lots of cash, keep issuing loads of more shares and might get to breakeven in 2 years, but only if their drug gets FDA approval, which is not guaranteed. Good luck.
INMD -2.14 to 34.52, a big selloff the past few weeks, evidently for no good reason ..... I just got back in and will be accumulating on further weakness.
TAST -.07 to 6.17, down from the $7's just two weeks ago ..... I picked up a few shares for a trade.
GCT back over $12 - thanks for the alert ! I picked up shares at an average price of 11.24, just flipped a few at 12.05 .... a gain of over 7% in one hour ..... it takes well over a year to earn the same return in treasury bills !
I joined you with a few GCT, but hopefully just for a quick short term trade ..... it should get a bounce, imho.
GCT -2.42 to 10.83 ..... evidently investors are not enthusiastic about the $85M stalking horse acquisition they announced yesterday morning. The stock is down about 40% since then. Yikes !
WALNUT, Calif., Sept. 12, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GigaCloud Technology Inc (Nasdaq: GCT) (“GigaCloud” or the “Company”), a pioneer of global end-to-end B2B ecommerce solutions for large parcel merchandise, today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement (the “Asset Purchase Agreement”) as the stalking horse bidder to acquire substantially all of the assets of Noble House Home Furnishings, LLC and certain of its affiliates (“Noble House”) for $85 million in connection with Noble House’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings.
Noble House is a leading distributor, manufacturer and retailer of an extensive selection of indoor and outdoor home furnishings. Noble House sells its portfolio of products through a diverse set of third-party channels, with leading positions at major retailers.
“With over 8,000 SKUs and a strong supply chain system, we believe Noble House will add significant depth to our 1P and 3P businesses, supplementing our already diverse range of product offerings,” said Larry Wu, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer of GigaCloud. “On the other hand, we believe GigaCloud’s B2B platform will enhance Noble House’s operational efficiency and expand Noble House’s sales channels. With our healthy balance sheet and cohesive marketplace ecosystem, we are confident that GigaCloud has the resources and management capabilities to stabilize and grow Noble House’s business in the future.”
Noble House filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on September 11, 2023 with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas, Houston Division (the “Bankruptcy Court”). The Asset Purchase Agreement is subject to certain customary closing conditions, including certain orders being entered by the Bankruptcy Court. The Asset Purchase Agreement is also subject to higher and better offers Noble House may receive during the auction process.
MCPH +21.05 to 26.50 ..... impressive 450% buyout premium for this tiny OTCBB bank that was trading at a mere 20% of book value ! Too bad we didn't have it on the radar, although on most days it traded zero volume.
BRIDGEVIEW, Ill., Sept. 12, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Midland Capital Holdings Corporation ("the "Company") (OTC Pink Marketplace: "MCPH"), the holding company of Midland Federal Savings and Loan Association ("Midland Federal" or the "Bank"), a federal savings and loan association headquartered in Bridgeview, Illinois, and Midfed Acquisition Corp. have reached an agreement for the Company and the Bank to be acquired by Midfed Acquisition Corp., a newly formed corporation headed by experienced bank executives and investors.
The merger agreement, which has been unanimously adopted by the boards of the Company and Midfed Acquisition Corp., provides for all-cash merger consideration equal to a percentage of the Bank's capital and the Company's net performing assets at closing, less unaccrued transaction expenses and certain other adjustments.
Based on the Bank's capital as of June 30, 2023 and assuming for estimated transaction costs and other adjustments pursuant to the merger agreement, Company shareholders are currently estimated to receive between $31.00 and $32.50 in cash consideration for each share of Company common stock (the "per share consideration"). The per share consideration ultimately received by shareholders is subject to significant adjustment based on the Bank's capital at closing and could decrease as a result of a variety of factors, including but not limited to the Company's future operating results, transaction costs and the costs to terminate certain of the Company's contracts. As a result, Company shareholders should not assume they will receive between $31.00 and $32.50 per share upon the closing of the transaction.
The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including the receipt of federal bank regulatory approvals, and approval of the Company's shareholders. We currently estimate that the transaction will close in the first or second quarter of 2024.
Isn't that supposed to happen over a weekend ? You mean your accounts are currently frozen for several trading days during the transfer ? Nobody else on the board has reported that problem.
Wade - why are you moving your brokerage account ? From where to where ? Were you not satisfied with the service ?
GERN - if your so confident, why not double down today at $2.33 ?
If Wade ever figures out this manipulation stuff and how his positions are being targeted, his returns will go through the roof.
GERN
GERN -.01 to 2.33, this morning's action looks like a pump and dump by Goldman .... they upgraded it so that their clients could sell the rally. In any case, it's not a good sign about what investors think GERN is really worth.
GERN is being manipulated down because you're long ? And the S&P is being manipulated higher because you're short ? Whenever you lose money it's due to manipulation ?
SGMA -3.55 to 4.05, I dumped my shares in pre-market and early trading ..... their earnings are presumably still being dragged down by WAGZ since they remain a minority stakeholder. That acquisition was a total disaster and continues to impact them. I have no interest in owning this stock ever again ! Good riddance.
Wade: I can well understand that financial security is a priority, but there's a cost to being out of the market. Hypothetically lets say your average after tax annual return on invested funds since 2014 was 20%. And let's say you took an average of $50,000 out per year for 10 years and put it in the bank for low risk free returns. Had you stayed fully invested the $50k per year withdrawals would now be worth $1.55M versus $550k risk free. A huge $1M difference in your net worth. I don't know what your actual returns or withdrawals have been, but I think you've reported previously that you've had some spectacular years, including 2022, so your average annual after tax return is probably well above 20%. Even with the disaster this year, your WadeGarret portfolio is up 74% since the start of last year.
I'm virtually always at least 80% invested, perhaps briefly 75% on rare occasions, but usually 95% or so .... there are always undervalued stocks to buy even in a pricey market. Right now I'm about 87% invested with the remaining 13% in SGOV.
GTEC +.16 to 4.47, nice trading ! I'm down to roughly 45% of my original peak position. It's been quite a joyride the past week. Looks as though Wednesday's high of $5.25 may have been the top, but who knows ? Maybe it's setting up for another push higher ? I'm continuing to trim shares gradually.
Wade - why do you say it was smart to remove much of your profit from the market since 2014 ? Have you really done better with fixed income investments than with stocks over the past 10 years ? Even going back the last 20 months, judging by your WadeGarret portfolio, your investments are up 74% versus around 7% in short term treasuries. Seems like you would now have MUCH more wealth if you had NOT been constantly reducing your percent of assets invested. Or have your stock holdings done poorly since 2014 ? The S&P is up roughly 200% since 2014 and many stocks have done much better than 200%.
Wade - why do you think longs have been duped when the S&P is up 16% YTD ? The shorts are the ones losing money. The longs have clearly been right and rewarded with nice gains while the shorts have been duped and are losing money !
SIGA -.01 to 4.39, I joined you and Otcbargains with a small position today ..... I think it should be good for a 10%+ bounce in the coming weeks .... if the DoD sticks with SIGA and keeps the vaccine stockpile current as doses expire, it could be a gravy train for years to come ....
UAW strike seems likely starting next Friday -
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/07/gm-offers-wage-increases-hefty-bonuses-uaw.html
F, GM
DBI +1.72 to 12.10 after a solid earnings report -
briefing -
Designer Brands beats by $0.15, beats on revs; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance; Q2 comps +8.9% (10.38 ) :
Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $0.59 per share, $0.15 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.44; revenues fell 5.4% year/year to $813 mln vs the $787.94 mln FactSet Consensus.
Q2 Total comparable sales decreased by 8.9%
Gross profit decreased to $273.4 million versus $295.7 million last year, and gross margin was 34.5% compared to 34.4% for the same period last year.
Co reaffirms guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $1.20-1.50 vs. $1.29 FactSet Consensus. Co reaffirms FY23 net sales Down mid- to high-single digits (FactSet consensus -6%).
AER (62.72) reports an insurance settlement receipt of $645M for 17 of the 135 aircraft seized by Russia - the company took a $2.7B writeoff in Q1 2022 and they've been working through the courts to realize associated insurance claims - $645M represents about $2.80 per share.
On September 5, 2023, we received cash insurance settlement proceeds in the total amount of approximately US$645 million in full settlement of our insurance claims under the Aeroflot group’s insurance policies in respect of the 17 aircraft and five spare engines on lease to Russian flag carrier Public Joint Stock Company “Aeroflot – Russian Airlines” (“Aeroflot”) and Joint Stock Company Rossiya Airlines, a member of Aeroflot Group (“Rossiya”), at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Effective upon receipt of these insurance settlement proceeds from Limited Liability Company “Insurance Company NSK” (“NSK”), a Russian insurance company, we have released our claims against NSK, Aeroflot, Rossiya and their international reinsurers with respect to these aircraft and engines. These insurance settlements and receipt of the settlement proceeds were approved by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of the Treasury and are consistent with other applicable sanctions regimes.
The amount of our separate US$3.4 billion claim against the “All Risks” insurers under our contingent and possessed insurance policy that relates to these 17 aircraft and five spare engines is approximately US$908 million. As a result of the receipt of these insurance settlement proceeds, this claim will be reduced to approximately US$2.75 billion.
Insurance settlement discussions are ongoing with respect to our claims under the insurance policies of several other Russian airlines. However, it is uncertain whether any of these discussions will result in any insurance settlement or receipt of insurance settlement proceeds and, if so, in what amount. In particular, it remains uncertain whether the necessary approvals and funding to complete any such further insurance settlements can be obtained.
2022 Q1 -
In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and other countries, we terminated the leasing of all our aircraft and engines with Russian airlines. Prior to the Russian invasion, we had 135 aircraft and 14 engines on lease with Russian airlines, which represented approximately 5% of AerCap's fleet by net book value as of December 31, 2021. We have removed 22 aircraft and 3 engines outside of Russia, and 113 aircraft and 11 engines remain in Russia.
During the first quarter of 2022, we recognized a pre-tax charge of $2.7 billion ($2.4 billion after-tax) to our earnings, comprised of flight equipment write-offs and impairments, which were partially offset by the derecognition of lease-related assets and liabilities. We recognized a total loss on our assets that remain in Russia and Ukraine and impairment losses on the assets we have recovered from Russian and Ukrainian airlines.
We had letters of credit related to our aircraft and engines leased to Russian airlines as of February 24, 2022 of approximately $260 million, confirmed by nine financial institutions in Western Europe. We have presented requests for payment to all these institutions. To date, we have received payments of $210 million related to these letters of credit. We have initiated legal proceedings against one financial institution which rejected our payment demands in respect of certain letters of credit.
Our lessees are required to provide insurance coverage with respect to leased aircraft and we are named as insureds under those policies in the event of a total loss of an aircraft or engine. We also purchase insurance which provides us with coverage when our flight equipment are not subject to a lease or where a lessee's policy fails to indemnify us. We have submitted an insurance claim for approximately $3.5 billion with respect to all aircraft and engines remaining in Russia and intend to pursue all of our claims under these policies with respect to our assets leased to Russian airlines as of February 24, 2022. However, the timing and amount of any recoveries under these policies are uncertain and we have not recognized any claim receivables as of March 31, 2022.
HRMY +1.41 to 38.05, too bad you bailed out ..... it's turned into a nice winner.
PLYMOUTH MEETING, Pa., Sept. 7, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. ("Harmony") (Nasdaq: HRMY), a pharmaceutical company dedicated to developing and commercializing innovative therapies for patients with rare neurological diseases, today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted Orphan Drug designation to pitolisant for the treatment of idiopathic hypersomnia (IH).
SIGA is an interesting special situation play with the big unknown being how many more years the government DoD will be buying TPOXX. Seems like a good buy for a 10% to 20% gain in the coming weeks or months based on its recent trading history. I may pick up a few shares.
SIGA - smallpox was eradicated worldwide in the 1970's, but the US government is concerned that the virus could be used as a biological weapon by terrorists or in a war so they're stockpiling vaccine. TPOXX recently got a shelf life extension to 3.5 years, but nonetheless it seems new orders will have to come in to replace expiring doses ? Even so, other companies could get the next big contract.
SIGA -.09 to 4.40, looks cheap, but maybe these huge government orders to stockpile their smallpox anti-viral drug are coming to an end. Aside from this big government contract signed in 2018, their revenues are minimal and they are losing money. How big a stockpile does the government need ? Maybe this year's order will be the final one ?
10K -
On September 10, 2018, the Company entered into a contract with BARDA pursuant to which SIGA agreed to deliver up to 1,488,000 courses of oral TPOXX® to the Strategic Stockpile, and to manufacture and deliver to the Strategic Stockpile, or store as vendor-managed inventory, up to 212,000 courses of IV TPOXX®. Additionally, the contract includes funding from BARDA for a range of activities, including: advanced development of IV TPOXX®, post-marketing activities for oral and IV TPOXX®, and procurement activities. As of December 31, 2022, the contract with BARDA (as amended, modified, or supplemented from time to time, the "19C BARDA Contract") contemplates up to approximately $602.5 million of payments, of which approximately $51.7 million of payments are included within the base period of performance of five years, approximately $268.9 million of payments are related to exercised options and up to approximately $281.9 million of payments are currently specified as unexercised options. BARDA may choose in its sole discretion when, or whether, to exercise any of the unexercised options. The period of performance for options is up to ten years from the date of entry into the 19C BARDA Contract and such options could be exercised at any time during the contract term, including during the base period of performance.