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Wade - what makes you think that one has to invest in the S&P500 ??? Haven't you been beating the index for the past 20 years by a wide margin ? It's all about finding undervalued stocks and investing in those. I have no interest whatsoever in investing in the S&P. I always aim to do a lot better than the S&P.
You've been reporting for years that you had outstanding results, far better than the S&P or Russell, including a 500% gain in one year. Or is that not true ? How is it that you're not financially secure after all those stellar years ? It seems like you should have been financially secure already a decade ago. Just recently you posted that you were day trading $1M positions - that implies a multi-million dollar portfolio. How much do you need on the sidelines to feel financially secure ?
I was trading given stocks in the amounts of $500K to up to $1M per stock all year, a dozen times per week
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172809102
Wade - 5% in Treasuries is roughly 3.5% after taxes and lags inflation ..... so you're actually losing money. And you may prefer financial security, but over the long term constantly taking money out of the market has cost you big time as per my prior post -
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MPW +.06 to 5.37, they cut the dividend to $0.15 quarterly ..... now trading way below book value, but they may be forced to take some big charges in the future. Some of their major hospital tenants are in serious financial distress.
Is their a price you'd get back in ? Or too much risk even at this price ? I can't imagine they're at risk of bankruptcy but who knows ?
The Magnificent 7 are down an average of 12% from their 2023 highs, but still up a very impressive 86% YTD -
TKR LOSS Cur Pr High Pr Date of High
NVDA -18% 410.17 502.66 08/24
TSLA -15% 255.7 299.29 07/19
MSFT -13% 319.53 366.78 07/18
AAPL -12% 173.93 198.23 07/19
AMZN -11% 129.33 145.86 09/14
META -9% 295.73 326.2 07/28
GOOG -6% 131.36 139.93 09/18
AVERAGE RETURN = -12%
YTD -
PRICE CHANGE FROM CLOSING PRICE ON 20221231
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
NVDA 181% 410.17 146.14
META 146% 295.73 120.34
TSLA 108% 255.7 123.18
AMZN 54% 129.33 84
GOOG 48% 131.36 88.73
AAPL 34% 173.93 129.93
MSFT 33% 319.53 239.82
AVERAGE RETURN = 86%
Low PE small cap oil producers have been laggards ..... the last time oil was over $90 was 11/7/22 .... NG is down sharply since then, but these companies derive most of their revenue from oil -
Price change since 11/7/22
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
NOG 9% 38.71 35.52
SBOW -12% 33.02 37.38
CPE -22% 37.39 48.23
VTLE -24% 52.24 68.94
REI -43% 1.87 3.27
AVERAGE RETURN = -18%
There have been lots of days the S&P500 was down far more than 1.5% since 2018 -
How about 3/16/20 when it was down 11.6% ?
There were loads of HUGE down days during the pandemic crash.
Most recently on 3/7/23 the S&P was down 1.53%.
GTEC - I got a fill yesterday at $3.30 and have lower GTC bids waiting ....
NVDA -12 to 410, in a strong downtrend. I'm tempted, but will be more tempted if drops into the high $300's. Already a major correction from $502 after the blockbuster earnings a few weeks ago.
CSPI -2.25 to 17.37 a huge 34% haircut from yesterday's high of 26.39 ..... if it can drop 9 bucks, then maybe it can drop a few more .... I placed some lowball GTC orders at $13.13 (Mocking Bird Lane) and under just in case this monstrous swan dive continues .....
GCT +.41 to 10.93 after hitting 11.15 .... I've been trimming shares into the strength. It's the gift that keeps on giving !
Lentinman had another mantra - "If the fundamentals and technicals don't jive, trust the technicals".
I think he got that line from a widely followed IHUB poster.
Lentinman was strict in enforcing the board rule that only profitable companies were allowed. Any post about a company that did not have trailing 12 months profitability was promptly deleted.
He was also big on stock charts with particular interest in gaps and waiting for them to fill before buying .....
A wide range of stock performance statistics were a major focus of his.
ELTK - thanks for the alert, I also trimmed a few shares at 8.80 ....
GERN (2.18) - I got a fill this morning at 2.16 and have lower GTC bids waiting .... there's technical support at around $2. I'm just in for a trade, not a long term position. It should get a bounce at some point in the coming days or weeks, in which case I'll be taking profits.
GCT - this has been a nice trader, though unfortunately I missed the morning dip into the low $9's. I just place a few more GTC orders (no pun intended) in case it dips again !
GCT -1.07 to 10.38, I've also been a buyer this morning for another trade .... with some GTC orders waiting both to buy more and sell depending on how the stock trades going forward.
I'll check out REI. I've owned it in the past. They do have huge reserves, so that's a big plus.
GTEC +.78 to 3.70, this stock has become a good trader ..... wish I had added a few shares at 2.70 this morning - it's up 37% since the 10am low !
VTLE prices 2.7M share offering at $54, led by BofA and Wells Fargo ..... so institutional investors consider the stock a "buy" at $54.
I think your critique of this latest acquisition is too harsh. While it increases oil production in 2024 by just 30%, it increases free cash flow by 90% according to their investor presentation. More importantly it increases their oil and gas reserves by 65%.
https://investor.vitalenergy.com/static-files/6e62615e-89d7-4432-8fa8-a7d7d2d15656
Including the acquisitions of earlier this year they have increased reserves by 109% YTD while roughly doubling the share count including the convertibles. Weak reserves have been a reason for the stock's low valuation, so these acquisitions have certainly helped in that regard.
I'm not enthusiastic about the latest acquisition, but also see some positives in it. We'll see how the stock does going forward and whether analysts reduce their ratings and or price targets. The average price target right now is $79.
VTLE - I need to read the details on the convertibles especially the conversion price. I'm too busy now with personal stuff.
Are there really that many oil companies trading at a forward multiple of under 5 ? I know of just a few. Which ones do you like ?
Of course when one issues shares of an undervalued company and pays market prices to purchase assets, that is inevitably value destruction by strict calculation, but investors may react differently. Reserves may have increased more substantially than production. Also the higher market cap and greater liquidity will potentially attract more institutional investors. So a rise in the PE could offset the reduction in EPS.
I don't like this deal, but I'm not nearly as negative on it as you are, at least from what I know so far.
VTLE -4.50 to 54.85, agreed, they're diluting substantially, depending also on the convertible terms which I haven't read. Even assuming double the share count, and just 30% increased NI, that cuts EPS estimates for 2024 from $20.43 down to $13.28 for a forward PE of 4.1.
I'm not selling based on this superficial analysis. The stock remains cheap, but not as cheap.
Maybe they're adding a lot of reserves which has been a concern and partly the reason for the low valuation ?
I'm busy with other things, but will review this deal more closely over the weekend. Thanks for alerting me about the acquisition. I get a flood of PRs each morning and missed seeing that one.
VTLE - I didn't realize that the notes were convertibles. That's not mentioned in the PR. What's the conversion price and other terms ? Also they stated they are issuing 2.5M shares. How are you getting 8M ?
[edit] I missed seeing the acquisition PR. I'll check it out.
SBOW - I think they're wise to raise some capital while oil prices are relatively high .... I own VTLE, CPE, SBOW, NOG and PTEN in the O&G sector. At current stock prices, VTLE is the cheapest and my favorite.
VTLE selling off on news of a capital raise, bonds and stock, but it's only roughly 15% dilution and they'll put the cash to good use. I added a few shares in pre-market at $53.97. Oil is near $90 and still rising ..... not good for the consumer, but good for oil producers. NG also showing some seasonal strength ahead of fall and winter.
TAST (6.21) sure is up a lot this year and y/y so lots of good news already priced in .... but the Q3 analyst estimates for EPS of $0.05 seem too low. Analysts were estimating Q2 EPS of just $0.02 yet the company posted adj EPS of $0.27. That said, the conf call is guiding for moderating margins in Q3. I'd guess adj EPS of $0.10 to $0.15 for Q3, but that's probably already priced in ..... so the stock may be near fair value now at around $6.
Wade - this board has had loads of multi-baggers over the years. Most recently GTEC was up 200% in just a few days. CUBI is up 400% from the March lows. AAOI was a board favorite that you held onto longer than most of us. HZNP was also a holding of mine and I introduced it to the board way back in 2015 - so you heard about it from me.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=117865988&txt2find=hznp
GERN short interest was up by 5M shares in 2 weeks at last report. You're the only one on this board who thinks it's a buy ..... there's strong technical support at $2, so if it drops another 10% I'll pick up a few shares for a trade, but that's about it. I like profitable companies, not ones that burn lots of cash, keep issuing loads of more shares and might get to breakeven in 2 years, but only if their drug gets FDA approval, which is not guaranteed. Good luck.
INMD -2.14 to 34.52, a big selloff the past few weeks, evidently for no good reason ..... I just got back in and will be accumulating on further weakness.
TAST -.07 to 6.17, down from the $7's just two weeks ago ..... I picked up a few shares for a trade.
GCT back over $12 - thanks for the alert ! I picked up shares at an average price of 11.24, just flipped a few at 12.05 .... a gain of over 7% in one hour ..... it takes well over a year to earn the same return in treasury bills !
I joined you with a few GCT, but hopefully just for a quick short term trade ..... it should get a bounce, imho.
GCT -2.42 to 10.83 ..... evidently investors are not enthusiastic about the $85M stalking horse acquisition they announced yesterday morning. The stock is down about 40% since then. Yikes !
WALNUT, Calif., Sept. 12, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GigaCloud Technology Inc (Nasdaq: GCT) (“GigaCloud” or the “Company”), a pioneer of global end-to-end B2B ecommerce solutions for large parcel merchandise, today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement (the “Asset Purchase Agreement”) as the stalking horse bidder to acquire substantially all of the assets of Noble House Home Furnishings, LLC and certain of its affiliates (“Noble House”) for $85 million in connection with Noble House’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings.
Noble House is a leading distributor, manufacturer and retailer of an extensive selection of indoor and outdoor home furnishings. Noble House sells its portfolio of products through a diverse set of third-party channels, with leading positions at major retailers.
“With over 8,000 SKUs and a strong supply chain system, we believe Noble House will add significant depth to our 1P and 3P businesses, supplementing our already diverse range of product offerings,” said Larry Wu, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer of GigaCloud. “On the other hand, we believe GigaCloud’s B2B platform will enhance Noble House’s operational efficiency and expand Noble House’s sales channels. With our healthy balance sheet and cohesive marketplace ecosystem, we are confident that GigaCloud has the resources and management capabilities to stabilize and grow Noble House’s business in the future.”
Noble House filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on September 11, 2023 with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas, Houston Division (the “Bankruptcy Court”). The Asset Purchase Agreement is subject to certain customary closing conditions, including certain orders being entered by the Bankruptcy Court. The Asset Purchase Agreement is also subject to higher and better offers Noble House may receive during the auction process.
MCPH +21.05 to 26.50 ..... impressive 450% buyout premium for this tiny OTCBB bank that was trading at a mere 20% of book value ! Too bad we didn't have it on the radar, although on most days it traded zero volume.
BRIDGEVIEW, Ill., Sept. 12, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Midland Capital Holdings Corporation ("the "Company") (OTC Pink Marketplace: "MCPH"), the holding company of Midland Federal Savings and Loan Association ("Midland Federal" or the "Bank"), a federal savings and loan association headquartered in Bridgeview, Illinois, and Midfed Acquisition Corp. have reached an agreement for the Company and the Bank to be acquired by Midfed Acquisition Corp., a newly formed corporation headed by experienced bank executives and investors.
The merger agreement, which has been unanimously adopted by the boards of the Company and Midfed Acquisition Corp., provides for all-cash merger consideration equal to a percentage of the Bank's capital and the Company's net performing assets at closing, less unaccrued transaction expenses and certain other adjustments.
Based on the Bank's capital as of June 30, 2023 and assuming for estimated transaction costs and other adjustments pursuant to the merger agreement, Company shareholders are currently estimated to receive between $31.00 and $32.50 in cash consideration for each share of Company common stock (the "per share consideration"). The per share consideration ultimately received by shareholders is subject to significant adjustment based on the Bank's capital at closing and could decrease as a result of a variety of factors, including but not limited to the Company's future operating results, transaction costs and the costs to terminate certain of the Company's contracts. As a result, Company shareholders should not assume they will receive between $31.00 and $32.50 per share upon the closing of the transaction.
The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including the receipt of federal bank regulatory approvals, and approval of the Company's shareholders. We currently estimate that the transaction will close in the first or second quarter of 2024.
Isn't that supposed to happen over a weekend ? You mean your accounts are currently frozen for several trading days during the transfer ? Nobody else on the board has reported that problem.
Wade - why are you moving your brokerage account ? From where to where ? Were you not satisfied with the service ?
GERN - if your so confident, why not double down today at $2.33 ?
If Wade ever figures out this manipulation stuff and how his positions are being targeted, his returns will go through the roof.
GERN
GERN -.01 to 2.33, this morning's action looks like a pump and dump by Goldman .... they upgraded it so that their clients could sell the rally. In any case, it's not a good sign about what investors think GERN is really worth.
GERN is being manipulated down because you're long ? And the S&P is being manipulated higher because you're short ? Whenever you lose money it's due to manipulation ?