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Anyway, what I expect is that Less will sell a huge chunk of the C Prefs to a private equity partner for around 1.5 - 2$ a share, not to a BP.
Well at least now we know why the share price of the last few days firmly stabilized at around $0.65.
My guess they want these Cs in the hands of those who will vote FOR the AS in the upcoming ASM yet to be announced. They are nervous about the possibility of losing that vote. So they need (want) these additional votes in favor of AS at the ASM.
Gary, you missed the point of my post. I was not making a statement whether Merck would or would not make an offer and at what level the offer would be. I was making a statement about the state of mind of those shareholders posting that they would gladly accept $2 for their shares. I was trying to show that they too would probably refuse such an offer (from a biopharma).
If say Merck were to offer $2 for all shares tomorrow, I suspect that you (and I) would turn that down that offer rather quickly, since that would make even the current doubters realize that there is real value here far greater than $2, or Merck would not make such an offer. Just they are in a much better position to realize how undervalued the company is right now.
I suspect that for SOC most of those who do not continue living are those who actually have progression and not merely psPD
Doesn't the phrase "allow regulators a “quiet period” as they carry out their review," imply that their is A REVIEW GOING ON, otherwise no quiet period is asked for. Are you saying this implies there is a review going on? But they have announced tha t as of the last PR they had not yet submitted to the RAs as of yet, SOWHY THE QUIET PERIOD?
I also believe that management is concerned that within their strong base of longs, there are enough doubts caused by their silence (that is well beyond the embargoed results of the PIII), that they are very reluctant to face an ASM until that gets resolved. They need to get an AS resolution but are concerned they may lose that vote. They are putting off the ASM until they can resolve these issues. Clearly this logic only works short term as they can not put off the ASM indefinitely. So they must KNOW that this will be resolved in the near term by the required facts all falling into place - they just need to put off the ASM short term until this happens. But putting off the ASM and then later being forced to call it at some later time without resolving these issues is pointless and counter productive. They may as well face the music now and hope they survive the ASM.
I have a pet speculation on the nature of the NWBO longs. There is an entire spectrum of these longs. A few may be infiltrators, a wolf in sheep's clothing, a few of whom, possibly post here on iHub. But there are not many of those. Then there are the "temporary" longs most of whom are traders with a relatively short term long position. We have some of those posting on iHub as well. You can easily discern these posters by how their tune changes from time to time. Then you have the longs who have recently bought into NWBO on the rise prior to May 10, with intentions to be long but were easily scared out of their positions after 5/10 along with some longer term longs. This brings us to the long term longs, those in it through thick and thin, those who have been it for many years and would not survive the mental shock if they finally sold out and then two weeks later the big news hit - so they hold, even if management has given them reason to entertain doubt by their silence. This is the group that management can not afford to lose. Of course there may be some longs who have no doubts whatsoever, but I suspect, they are few and far between (outside of the insiders who know much more than we do).
I think that by now we have shaken out all the short term longs and any of the wavering longer term holders. Thus the trading has shriveled to a low daily trading volume sustained IMHO by short term traders, the MM's and those accumulating the shares being tossed by the last few longs who are finally getting out. Bt now, most of the "true" long term longs are not going to sell and will hold most of their holding until the full show plays out - thus the diminishing daily volume and the pretty stable price, dropping ever so slowly at this time, at a regularly diminishing rate. So we are basically in a holding pattern - that will end when management chooses to release substantial news. Essentially, shares are in the hands of strong holders, with their eyes on the prize, that will for the most part continue to hold their shares and see the game through to the final play of the current trial. I suspect that some of these are also kicking themselves for passing up the opportunity to sell at $2 and buy back double or triple their position shortly thereafter. But as we all know, no one has a perfect crystal ball, so they feared the risk of selling and not being nimble enough to buy back in time before the news hits and missing out on the main prize.
I also think that the longs mostly believe this is in the process of happening shortly and it will not disappear into some eventual black hole in the distant future never to be heard from again.
I like the logic.
See my post from June 24, 2022 1:50:19 PM - Post# 489805, where I predicted this happening. With so much in potential revenues, that non biopharma giants, will begin to buy in competition with large biopharma.
hankmanhub
Friday, June 24, 2022 1:50:19 PM
Re: KD888888 post# 489800
Post# 489805 of 496823
I am sure not many will agree with me, but I think with so many BILLIONS in future revenues, it is not out of the question for say a large bank, insurance co, or say Musk, Bezoz, Gates, Buffett etc. without any pharma know-how, could bid and buy NWBO, and them hire a Pharma like say Pfizer (or you name it) to run NWBO on their behalf. That would cut them in for a share of the BILLIONS in future revenues. No real reason to count them out.
Where do you get this from? How does this work? What if the "signal" gets taken out right away? Can this work in an active market, or only in a low volume market? How long does this signal stay up? Who is being signaled? If all know this messaging technique then why is it effective, as the "wrong" people can get the message as well. ? Is anyone else aware of this? and many more questions.....
I fully agree with you on this and would add one proviso which is "or until NWBO forces their hand with NEWS."
One question - with this point of view, why bother with charts at this time?
Yes, I agree Hoff. This is a very limited point on which who issued the "TLD" can make a difference by the self imposed terms of their silence. As I pointed out in an earlier post (reproduced below) I do not hink it will make much difference in terms of market impact, once the very basic information is out, it is out - and reproducing the same information with a little enhancement (unless it is large) will not change much of anything.
I wrote at post #495465 the following:
BB, I only partially agree with you.
Yes the targeted UK approvals are truly important to us at this time (and the EU and the FDA a bit later), but I would not so minimize the importance of the JA and the ASM. These are quite important in their own right and every brick in the foundation is important. I agree on the order of their importance however. While a good ASM can help, a bad ASM can truly hurt. So please do not write this off as unimportant. The JA remains a key element in the credibility of the company, the trial and the science and its ability to produce what they promise (both wrt the JA and the trial)..
Makes sense to me. Let's hope that rational thought leads to truth and facts unfolding as a consequence, (which has not always been the case in the long history of NWBO).
The reason seems pretty obvious to me. They are reluctant to call an ASM while their is serious malaise among the some of the longs due to the silence, delay etc. They can not risk a no vote on the AS which clearly must come up at the next ASM, They also would not be happy with a bad look of avoiding investor questions, so they hope that the JA (or other news) happens shortly, and then they they will be happy to call the ASM.
BB, I only partially agree with you.
Yes the targeted UK approvals are truly important to us at this time (and the EU and the FDA a bit later), but I would not so minimize the importance of the JA and the ASM. These are quite important in their own right and every brick in the foundation is important. I agree on the order of their importance however. While a good ASM can help, a bad ASM can truly hurt. So please do not write this off as unimportant. The JA remains a key element in the credibility of the company, the trial and the science and its ability to produce what they promise (both wrt the JA and the trial)..
Thanks for your reply Ex.
On item 1) it is even worse than you stated as it is capped at $145K by the lease as both you and I discovered upon a read of the lease..
On item 2) I think you meant page F-23. Page F-4 had a paragraph on the lease that was all Chinese to me, but had no numbers.
On item 3) ...........
Viking, according to this lease you cite, (unsigned - is this final?) the rental can not exceed $144,590 per year. This is even less than the $330,000 that Ex claimed was the annual rental.
Ex, that is very interesting if correct. You point to three facts:
1) the $10's of M spent on the leasehold improvements,
2) the annual long term lease for $330k/year,
3) the percent in Advent that LP owns.
I presume that you have obtained this information from the various filings or PRs that NWBO has made wrt this information.
I would very much appreciate it if you could cite to the various documents that contain this info.so I can see them for myself. Thank you for your help. It does seem to me that $330K is very low for such a long term lease. If this is an example of LP negotiating with LP, then either LP is a great negotiator or the other LP is a terrible negotiator.
She would have to make filings if she sold shares. We would know about it.
Hoff, it is a distinction without a difference wrt to effect on the market. If for example you were in court and the information was no correct, then whether or not it was NWBO that released the info (TLD) or whether some other party released the info would probably make a big difference, However, with respect to market effect on the share price, whether it was NWBO or some other party such as a PI that released the info (with links to the presentation by NWBO) it will not be a distinction that matters.
Thanks Reef for sharing this response from DI. I may be reading too much into it, but my read (between the lines) is fist that they are getting the message that their silence is hurting us all and they want to let us know, that they are anxious to get out of this mode. Second, that they want to assure us that work on the BLA is ongoing in parallel, and they are not waiting to do this in serial fashion, ie., progress on the BLA is not being retarded by the JA. Third, that they will not wait for the actual publication of the JA, but they will notify us (PR) as soon as they receive acceptance of the article. This is what hints to me that they are truly anxious to get out of the silence mode. Thus searching in all the journals for the first sign of our article is pointless, as we will get this PR BEFORE it makes an appearance in print or online.
At that point I will expect a lot of information to be forthcoming on where we stand in the process. I take this as a promise from DI, to which I will hold him to, on pain of his credibility. For now, I take this email as a very positive sign.
Actually from my point of view there are a few retail sellers who are tired of waiting and the uncertainty due to NWBO silence and lost opportunity elsewhere, but these are few and far between - but enough to make it worthwhile for the accumulator. But most of the longs are holding and have their eyes on the prize - thus the low volume of daily trading.
Sort of. I believe there is accumulation going on, but they do not wish to push the shares higher by buying to quickly. So there is just enough buying to maintain the share price while SLOWLY accumulating, but not to push it significantly higher (until news).
ie., there is very little RETAIL buying pressure. .The main buying is by the party doing the accumulation.
Clearly, this will only work in a low volume situation with little retail buying pressure to upset the cart.
Isn't it obvious? If i am a buyer on the BID (AND NOT THE SAME PARTY ALSO ON THE ASK .0002 HIGHER) and really wanted 70,000 shares, i would not let a $0.0002 spread hold me back and I would quickly gobble up all the shares available on the ASK at that price (and hope for more). The fact that this does not happen, tells me that both the BID and ASK are the same party (or in cahoots) and so nothing happens until they want it to!
How screwed up is this!! It is clearly the same party on both the BID an on the ASK and manipulating the market. A $0.0002 difference between bid/ask with 70,000 on the bid! AND NOTHING HAPPENS!
$0.7702-0.01(-1.26%)
Bid: 0.77 x 69525Ask: 0.7702 x 10906
July 11, 2022 9:36 AMEDTVolume: 50,817
USDOTCQB - U.S. RegisteredReal-Time Price
Cool - that is the first chart I could read (and believe).
and it was an NWBO PR - not an Advent PR.
IMO, yesterday's PR, was some of the footwork in preparation for the upcoming announcement for the ASM.
By the same token, t hey could have been working (and hopefully have been) on the BLA even without a rolling submission, and despite yesterday's PR, could be ready to submit tomorrow, or next week or next month. Either way, submission could be any day hereon.
I am curious, why after all this time of silence, would they throw in gratuitously this fact, that the BLA has not yet been filed, which has nothing to do with the subject matter of the PR about this next step in the readiness of Sawston?
Such a manufacturing license is separate from any regulatory decision about approval of DCVax-L itself. The Company has not to date submitted an application for commercial approval of DCVax-L.
Right on, BB!
I hope you are right that soon there will more than one large entity interested and buying. with the current one buyer, he can keep the price depressed and low so long as he accumulates SLOWLY. But when there are two or more, that will not be possible and the result will be a muted (at first) bidding war and the price will be under pressure to rise consistently. Certainly the more info gets out the sooner this will happen. furthermore, they will accumulate up to 90 M shares EACH if they are serious players.
Some entity is accumulating for quite a while and has the MMs keeping the price low and stable as they accumulate shares up to the 10% limit without filing that is about 90M shares.They will probably continue to do this as long as there is no PR or news that drive the cost of shares up and there is no other retail buying pressure - witness the daily volume has become low again.
Here is why! It is not the desire of those currently manipulating this stock. Please stop with your silly and constant assertions without basis.
I have been batting this around in my head for a while now, and it now seems to me that there is only one possibility that makes any sense.
We start with the (mostly unexplained) fact that NWBO management has chosen to (or must for some reason) remain silent. I work with the belief that the long term will be good and that is in the bag. The problem is NOW (from here to there). It is clear that there is no longer any retail buying and that volume has dried up. The question is who is controlling the current trading? Some believe that it is the shorts in full manipulated control with the help of the MMs. The problem with this is that the price seems to have settled into a very stable price level, with but a very minor but regular very slow penny decline. With a short in control, the price decline could (and therefore would) be much sharper than we are now experiencing. There is so little retail buying at this time to buoy the price up. Not much to write home about for a short. The only reasonable alternative is that this is very slow but steady accumulation by a large entity, be it a large commercial investor, or a large pharma looking to accumulate their initial 10% on the QT. They have no interest in collapsing the share price as would a short, but they want to maintain a low, stable price over their period of accumulation before they reach 10% at which point they would have to file with the gov. As there are not many sellers at this time of pause, the accumulation will be slow and take some time - until they reach some 90M shares. This would give them a foot in the door. This also explains why they are not too concerned with when the PRs from NWBO will start to drop. For a short that would spell disaster if they are not nimble enough to cover quickly. But for an accumulator, at worst, their time to accumulate cheaply will disappear, but it is basically good news for them as well and they need not fear the possibility of news dropping at any time.
The only puzzle is WHY is NWBO remaining silent? there are many theories, choose the one you like best - I have no idea. the simplest might be - just believe them about the journal embargo, or perhaps due to regulators or BLA etc, or due to some contractual deal for BO or partnering or, or, or....
I should have posted this as a new post, not directed as a response to any single poster. Here it is, open for comment to all:
I have been batting this around in my head for a while now, and it now seems to me that there is only one possibility that makes any sense.
We start with the (mostly unexplained) fact that NWBO management has chosen to (or must for some reason) remain silent. I work with the belief that the long term will be good and that is in the bag. The problem is NOW (from here to there). It is clear that there is no longer any retail buying and that volume has dried up. The question is who is controlling the current trading? Some believe that it is the shorts in full manipulated control with the help of the MMs. The problem with this is that the price seems to have settled into a very stable price level, with but a very minor but regular very slow penny decline. With a short in control, the price decline could (and therefore would) be much sharper than we are now experiencing. There is so little retail buying at this time to buoy the price up. Not much to write home about for a short. The only reasonable alternative is that this is very slow but steady accumulation by a large entity, be it a large commercial investor, or a large pharma looking to accumulate their initial 10% on the QT. They have no interest in collapsing the share price as would a short, but they want to maintain a low, stable price over their period of accumulation before they reach 10% at which point they would have to file with the gov. As there are not many sellers at this time of pause, the accumulation will be slow and take some time - until they reach some 90M shares. This would give them a foot in the door. This also explains why they are not too concerned with when the PRs from NWBO will start to drop. For a short that would spell disaster if they are not nimble enough to cover quickly. But for an accumulator, at worst, their time to accumulate cheaply will disappear, but it is basically good news for them as well and they need not fear the possibility of news dropping at any time.
The only puzzle is WHY is NWBO remaining silent? there are many theories, choose the one you like best - I have no idea. the simplest might be - just believe them about the journal embargo, or perhaps due to regulators or BLA etc, or due to some contractual deal for BO or partnering or, or, or....
No, I do not agree. I have been batting this around in my head for a while now, and it now seems to me that there is only one possibility that makes any sense.
We start with the (mostly unexplained) fact that NWBO management has chosen to (or must for some reason) remain silent. I work with the belief that the long term will be good and that is in the bag. The problem is NOW (from here to there). It is clear that there is no longer any retail buying and that volume has dried up. The question is who is controlling the current trading? Some believe that it is the shorts in full manipulated control with the help of the MMs. The problem with this is that the price seems to have settled into a very stable price level, with but a very minor but regular very slow penny decline. With a short in control, the price decline could (and therefore would) be much sharper than we are now experiencing. There is so little retail buying at this time to buoy the price up. Not much to write home about for a short. The only reasonable alternative is that this is very slow but steady accumulation by a large entity, be it a large commercial investor, or a large pharma looking to accumulate their initial 10% on the QT. They have no interest in collapsing the share price as would a short, but they want to maintain a low, stable price over their period of accumulation before they reach 10% at which point they would have to file with the gov. As there are not many sellers at this time of pause, the accumulation will be slow and take some time - until they reach some 90M shares. This would give them a foot in the door. This also explains why they are not too concerned with when the PRs from NWBO will start to drop. For a short that would spell disaster if they are not nimble enough to cover quickly. But for an accumulator, at worst, their time to accumulate cheaply will disappear, but it is basically good news for them as well and they need not fear the possibility of news dropping at any time.
The only puzzle is WHY is NWBO remaining silent? there are many theories, choose the one you like best - I have no idea. the simplest might be - just believe them about the journal embargo, or perhaps due to regulators or BLA etc, or due to some contractual deal for BO or partnering or, or, or....