full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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CEN.to: Coastal: This was copied from MrHelium at IV, supposedly appeared as Motley Fool piece today.
http://www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=17397&mn=1240&pt=msg&mid=10948988
Hidden oil gem
Coastal Energy (Other OTC: CENJF.PK - news) (LSE: CEO) is an AIM- and Toronto-listed oil and gas exploration/production company with operations in Thailand. With a market cap of around £720m, it started the first quarter this year producing just over 10,000 barrels of oil per day. Currently, production capacity now stands at around 15,800 barrels of oil per day following some newly drilled wells. With a legacy well brought up to speed, too, production should add up to 18,000 by late September.
By the end of 2011, Coastal is conservatively expected to be producing well over 20,000 barrels a day, although some analysts are pencilling up to 30,000 barrels a day subject to confirming recent discoveries. That's a lot of oil!
Fantastic drilling success
As at the end of June, the company had drilled twelve exploration wells and eleven of these had come up trumps with commercial quantities of oil.
Last week, the company -- boringly!-- found yet more oil; the 'Bua Ban North A-05' well could add up to 10 million barrels of recoverable oil to the group's 'probable' reserves. Indeed, this find could give Coastal an estimated 82 million 'company-risked reserve amount' by the end of the year. That's a 60%-plus increase on the probable reserves seen at the end of 2010.
Immediate drilling plans
The company is now targeting five or six exploration wells at Bua Ban North in order to understand something called the 'Miocene layer' (don't ask!). Analysts expect this drilling to be extremely positive, which will then be followed by a hunt for what apparently could be 54 million barrels of oil at Bua Ban South.
So, there is lots of (hopefully) positive news flow to come, which is always good for an oil stock.
Lower costs
But it's not just the discovery of oil that's exciting. Unlike other less hospitable areas of the world, such as the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea, production costs in the Gulf of Thailand are much lower due to the shallower nature of its waters.
Valuation
Very conservative analysts are predicting an end-of-year net asset value of around £12.50 per share, which is roughly double today's share price. So it seems there's still plenty to go for in the current price.
Also, Coastal is now generating lots of cash from its increased production and, looking ahead, the group's $49m of debt should be paid down by early 2012.
Lots of positives
Coastal is the pick of the bunch from Canadian brokers in this sector. The company has recently promoted itself to the main board of the Toronto Stock Exchange following a successful quote on Toronto's Venture Exchange. It is now far more attractive to institutional investors.
There has been a consistent plethora of broker upgrades throughout the year and I have no doubt there are more to come before the year is out.
Randy Bartley, chief executive, and Coastal's other senior managers, own a sizeable chunk of the company -- 29% -- so their interests are strongly aligned with shareholders.
Predictions
By the end of the year, I expect Coastal's share price to be way northwards of £10 compared to its current 645p level, subject to the oil price staying around the $100 to $120 mark.
Brokers are conservatively predicting twelve-month price targets of £13 to £15, but other market commentators are highlighting that if that Miocene exploration goes to plan, the numbers might justify a price nearer £20.
The best bit until last
Oh, and perhaps the best bit of all for UK-based investors is that Coastal qualifies for inclusion into an equity ISA. Despite the share being quoted on AIM, its dual listing makes it eligible for the tax shelter. Now there's another good reason why you can't ignore what is the most exciting oil opportunity I know!
> Simon owns shares in Coastal Energy.
12:05 GORO: Gold Resource trading 1.9% lower; weakness attributed to cautious newsletter mention out earlier (21.06 -0.41)
Anybody know which newsletter trashed it this time?
TIA,
'peeker
PCY.v/PRPCF.pk: Prophecy Coal:
Here's an excerpt from today's good news, which indicates things are on track, but there's still much to be done.
"The Mongolian Energy Regulatory Authority ("ERA"), in charge of power plant license issuance, has received the endorsement and is expected to issue a final response to Prophecy's license application in Q4, 2011."
'peeker
ps> I'm long PRPCF.pk
PVG.to/PXZRF.pk: Pretium mentioned in the Barrons article, but author was unable to render a conclusion as to whether Pretium's Snowfield and Brucejack properties will be as lucrative as Pretium says. Here's the excerpt from the end of the article:
Some investors seek to assuage their skepticism by touring exploration prospects. For others, a site visit is a chance to learn more about geology, drilling technologies and management's plans, and meet fellow gold enthusiasts. What you won't learn, however, is whether drilling results will bear out the company's claims, or whether the company's shares are in fact a good investment.
The full article is here:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052702304251404576556972309396458.html
MILL: New rig enroute to Cook Inlet of Alaska ...
10:44 Miller Energy Resources announced that Voorhees Equipment and Consulting has finished construction of Drilling Rig-35 and shipment is now underway to its final destination on the Osprey platform in the Cook Inlet of Alaska (3.39 +0.05)
Co made the final payment of $5.77 mln on the purchase of the $19.5 mln rig by drawing on its line of credit with Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC last week.
ARCI: How big can the icebox recycling business really become? Seems more green environmentally than green inthebackpocket-ly.
'peeker
Was Pretium mentioned in Barrons this wkend? It's down today; thinking something negative may have been said ??????
Great drill results today may have been put out because of the Barrons article ??????
Any insights into what Barrons said would be appreciated.
'peeker
NKL.v/PNIKF.pk (Prophecy Platinum) heading down; already down over 20% since the end of August;
Seems like PCY.v/PRPCF.pk (Prophecy Coal) would be destined to follow it down soon.
'peeker
ps> Not sure what's a reasonable price to pay for NKL.v, but anything over $5 ain't it.
RG.v stock price may be negatively impacted by NG's new cost estimate for the Donlin Gold Project. Estimate increased to $6Billion from $4.5Billion. Point is this increased estimate has hit NG's price, but the bigger issue is NG may not be able to pull all the strings it needs to develop both Donlin Gold Project and the Galore Creek project (we care about that one, since it's next door to Romios, and many think/hope NG will need to buy RG.v in order to improve feasibility at Galore Creek).
????
Also ... not clear why Romios is slow with publishing their latest drill results.
'peeker
CMT: Recent heavy selling by Chairman and other board members indicates something may be rotten in their outlook that they haven't yet shared with other shareholders. Regardless of the optimism expressed on the recent conf call, the Chairman of the Board has sold over 80% of his shares recently. Not a good omen.
Perhaps the cost of expanding capacity will set their earnings back for a few quarters????
Selling indicated by recent Form 4s and Form 144s.
Boooo, bad chairman!
'peeker
Study just shouldn't take a year. Point is by pushing that report out so far, questions about feasibility will remain to keep AAA.v from breakout, IMHO, and I wish I were young enough to think I could be naive.
'peeker
ps> I am long AAA.v
One Quarter of Your Losses for the Year should be sufficient.
Regards,
'peeker
13:57 ECONX (Briefing.com) According to CNBC comments:
Bernanke, in letter, says Fed closely monitoring developments in Europe; Europe credit event could hit many markets, financial firms
NKL.v/PNIKF.pk (and its momma company: PCY.v/PRPCF.pk)
Prophecy Commences Wellgreen Metallurgical and PEA Studies With SGS and Wardrop
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Sept. 6, 2011) - Prophecy Platinum Corp. ("Prophecy Platinum" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:NKL)(OTCQX:PNIKF)(PINK SHEETS:PNIKF)(FRANKFURT:P94P) has prepared and shipped 150kg samples to SGS Minerals Services ("SGS") to initiate a metallurgical and mineralogy study on the Wellgreen deposit. The study will focus on optimizing recoveries through conventional flotation to produce a PGM Nickel Copper concentrate. The mineralogy study will facilitate flowsheet conceptualization while closed circuit locked-cycle testing will be conducted to potentially enhance recoveries. The second part of the study will examine downstream treatment options involving pressure oxidation and leaching using the Platsol process, with which companies exploring in the Minnesota Duluth complex have demonstrated success. Results from the flotation study are expected in the first quarter (Q1) of 2012.
The Company has also engaged Wardrop, A Tetra Tech Company (Tetra Tech) to conduct a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for the Wellgreen deposit. This study will investigate all aspects of the future development of Wellgreen including updating the mineral resources, the open-pit design, determining the optimum mining rate, a review of metallurgical studies and the design of the processing plant, the selection of equipment and manpower needs, estimates of capital and operating costs, financial modeling and risk analysis. The study will, if appropriate, give an economic justification to proceed to a pre-feasibility study or directly to a full feasibility study. The Company expects to receive a preliminary pit-shell outline with an indication of strip ratio on its high grade starter pit (Inferred resource of 50.6 million tonnes at 2.20 g/t PGM+Au 0.83% Ni, 0.80% Cu, 1.6% NiEq based on 1% NiEq cut off, and an Indicated resource of 8.5 million tons at 2.77 g/t PGM+Au 0.91% Ni, 0.80% Cu,) in October, 2011. The completion of the PEA is expected in Q1 of 2012.
John Lee, Chairman of Prophecy Platinum comments: "The Wellgreen PGM-Ni-Cu project deserves world class status with its superior grades, location, resource base, and expansion potential. Over time, independent studies will demonstrate the quality attributes of this highly unique project."
Further to the Company's news release dated April 6, 2011, it has completed the acquisition of a 100% interest in the Burwash property (from here-on referred to as "Wellgreen East") from Strategic Metals Ltd. ("Stategic") by paying to Strategic $1,000,000. The Wellgreen East property comprises 48 square kilometres, adds approximately 7 kilometers of exploration strike length east of the Wellgreen leases. Previous exploration on the fully acquired claims confirms that the geologic stratigraphy and mineralization is similar to the main Wellgreen resource. Past surface exploration has yielded sample grabs of 11.6 g/t Pt, 29.4 g/t Pd and 0.9 g/t Rhodium. These results are historical and should be regarded as unverified and should not be relied upon. Prophecy's land position now spans 17.5 km in strike, covering a majority of the Quill Creek ultramafic Complex.
This news release has been reviewed and approved by Danniel Oosterman, P.Geo., an independent consultant to the Company and a Qualified Person as defined in NI 43-101.
About Wardrop (Tetra Tech)
Wardrop, A Tetra Tech Company (Tetra Tech) is a multi-disciplined engineering and consulting firm that provides innovative solutions for the natural resource management, energy, and infrastructure markets globally. Wardrop is a subsidiary of Tetra Tech (NASDAQ:TTEK), a leading provider of consulting, engineering, program management, construction and technical services. The combined companies have more than 12,000 employees worldwide and capabilities that span the entire project lifecycle.
About SGS Mineral Services
Founded over half-a-century ago to meet the metallurgical needs of Canada's growing mining industry, SGS Minerals Services' metallurgical group has since built upon its unique capabilities in grinding and flotation technologies to emerge as an industry leader in a full range of metallurgical services. With a diversity of technical expertise that is second to none, SGS Minerals Services has carved itself an identity in the rapidly changing world of mineral and mining technology.
About Prophecy Platinum
Prophecy Platinum Corp. is a Canadian based Nickel PGM exploration company with projects in Canada, Argentina and Uruguay. Prophecy Platinum's flagship Wellgreen PGM-Cu-Ni project is in Yukon Territory, Canada and the Lynn Lake project is located in Manitoba, Canada. Further information can be found at www.prophecyplat.com.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS of Prophecy Platinum Corp.
John Lee
Chairman
For further information:
Joseph Li
Telephone 1.800.362.7366
Email: jli@prophecyplat.com
www.prophecyplat.com
"Mineral resources that are not mineral reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability. Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release."
AAA.v could be dead money for awhile since "The Feasibility Study is estimated to be completed in the second half of 2012."
2 weeks is aesop's fable.
No, really, the CEO of TRGD has a dastardly history of telling people that financials would be out in about "two weeks". In other words, it was a joke that has been used many times over the last two years around here.
Regards,
peeker
Discussion of global bear market ahead.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/74104870/
Of course this is only one opinion...
I like Pretium as well. Does anyone have any clear idea of management's plan for announcing drill results in future? Particularly are you expecting drill results every couple of holes ... or more strategically ... a bunch of holes at some particular date in future, such as just prior to quarterly earnings ... or another PP?
Just curious what Quartermain has said about plans for announcing drill results along the way.
Thanks,
Steve
PCY: Gharma and Cork, excellent discussions on Prophecy Coal's real long-term potential if it can build the coal-fired power plant by Nov 2013 as they indicated. In order to begin building I assume they must execute power off-takes to support any loans they need to build the plant. Meanwhile the ownership of NKL shares gives them significant collateral for borrowing, but I have to assume they must execute the power off-takes to assure substantial future revenue streams before loans are approved and construction can begin.
My understanding is that PCY cannot outright sell their NKL shares until some time next year, but the value of their NKL shares can be used to provide significant collateral for necessary loans.
SHOM: Hey 10bagger, this appears to be a true diamond in the rough. When I divide annualized total earnings of about $500,000 per year by 222 million shares outstanding, I get EPS of about $.00225/share. When I divide stock price of about .0065 by EPS of .00225, I get PE of around 2.89 for SHOM.
DD indicates that they have a growing, recurring revenue stream in place and their infrastructure is established (for billing/orders/timesheets used by their franchisees, this little thinly traded company appears to have excellent potential for future stock price appreciation.
Annualized revenue is about $1.3million/yr and total mktcap is only about $1.5million, so it appears cheap based on its good growth rate.
Sooner or later the CEO indicates they will get their audited financials up to date so they can uplist their stock. That should help this stock if it can keep its revenue growth intact.
There have been suggestions that they may try to merge with existing clinics, etc., but they seem to be slow/careful about non-organic growth.
Do you have any corrections or further thoughts on SHOM you'd like to share?
TIA,
'peeker
Seems this could be a negative to PCY.v as Mongolian shareholders would want coal to be sourced from their own coal company.
In other words, the politics do not favor Prophecy Coal.
AGM is loosely speaking a financial stock, which wreaks of uncertainty in the greater Western world.
It also still holds a large chunk of derivatives, and mark-to-market rules require AGM to include their derivative gains/losses in quarterly earning statements. Right?
IMHO, AGM suffers with all financials due to the high level of uncertainty in European and North American economies, stock markets, and derivative markets.
That said, I still like AGM due to farming being one of the few market sectors that is certain to continue showing growth in the current economy.
'peeker
ps> I don't currently own AGM but have a stink bid in right now.
My hat goes off to this guy; his leg goes off.
http://www.whptv.com/content/OMG/story/Man-defeats-ankle-monitor-by-removing-fake-leg/DuQtRjyYokKIaItXY6vcIQ.cspx
ps> Stupid cops!
Sounds like a SHOM run!
I bought 2million shares after following your lead dnd doing some DD. Thinly traded, but as you suggested volume follows the news. It will be interesting to see how it moves today.
Thanks for bringing it to my attention; I assume the trade will eventually be profitable.
'peeker
Kozuh,
Sleeping in your own elevator could be hazardous to your health. Sleeping in your elevator with someone else and a hammer could get you killed.
Have you ever slept with Gov. Perry?
In any case, sweet dreams!
MMT.v: I considered that a negative, as "the opposite is also true" means AGIP keeps their pipeline busy but has made no commitment to take all the Mart oil over the long haul. It necessitates the much ballyhooed new pipeline that Mart hopes to build to Shell facilities in the next year or two.
I always thought Yamana did the deal as an "option" on the future price of the commodities on Tara's property. How does one get in touch with the "What's His Face" who was hired to run Adit (the ex-Yamana guy who came to Tara and then used his contacts to do the deal with Yamana)?
'peeker
OT: Frazzled by the market may be more correct.
Have a great week!
'peeker
Oh, come on, guys. The same could be said of many US and Canadian stocks.
SSN tooting their own horn this afternoon.
8:00pm ET August 14, 2011
EnerCom Conference - Samson Oil & Gas Limited; advises that it will be presenting to delegates attending "The 2011 Oil and Gas ConferenceTM" being held in Denver August 15th-18th. The presentation is scheduled for August 15th at 4.25 pm MST and is being webcast at the link:
www.investorcalendar.com/CEPage.asp?ID&=165322
Cork, there's only one way to look at it, and that's the way tr8ervic said. His math (which takes into account the number of shares of NKL and PCY) is correct.
OT: Charley Reese's final column for the Orlando Sentinel...
He has been a journalist for 49 years.
He is retiring and this is his last column.
545 vs. 300,000,000 People
-By Charlie Reese
Politicians are the only people in the world who create problems and
then campaign against them.
Have you ever wondered, if both the Democrats and the Republicans are
against deficits, WHY do we have deficits?
Have you ever wondered, if all the politicians are against inflation
and high taxes, WHY do we have inflation and high taxes?
You and I don't propose a federal budget. The President
does.
You and I don't have the Constitutional authority to vote on
appropriations. The House of Representatives does.
You and I don't write the tax code, Congress does.
You and I don't set fiscal policy, Congress does.
You and I don't control monetary policy, the Federal Reserve Bank
does.
One hundred senators, 435 congressmen, one President, and nine
Supreme Court justices equates to 545 human beings out of the 300 million
are directly, legally, morally, and individually responsible for the
domestic problems that plague this country.
I excluded the members of the Federal Reserve Board because that
problem was created by the Congress. In 1913, Congress delegated its
Constitutional duty to provide a sound currency to a federally chartered,
but private, central bank.
I excluded all the special interests and lobbyists for a sound
reason. They have no legal authority. They have no ability to coerce a
senator, a congressman, or a President to do one cotton-picking thing. I
don't care if they offer a politician $1 million dollars in cash. The
politician has the power to accept or reject it. No matter what the lobbyist
promises, it is the legislator's responsibility to determine how he votes.
Those 545 human beings spend much of their energy convincing you that
what they did is not their fault. They cooperate in this common con
regardless of party.
What separates a politician from a normal human being is an excessive
amount of gall. No normal human being would have the gall of a Speaker, who
stood up and criticized the President for creating deficits. The President
can only propose a budget. He cannot force the Congress to accept it.
The Constitution, which is the supreme law of the land, gives sole
responsibility to the House of Representatives for originating and approving
appropriations and taxes. Who is the speaker of the House? John Boehner. He
is the leader of the majority party. He and fellow House members, not the
President, can approve any budget they want. If the President vetoes it,
they can pass it over his veto if they agree to.
It seems inconceivable to me that a nation of 300 million cannot
replace 545 people who stand convicted -- by present facts -- of
incompetence and irresponsibility. I can't think of a single domestic
problem that is not traceable directly to those 545 people. When you fully
grasp the plain truth
that 545 people exercise the power of the federal
government, then it must follow that what exists is what they want to exist.
If the tax code is unfair, it's because they want it unfair.
If the budget is in the red, it's because they want it in the red.
If the Army& Marines are in Iraq and Afghanistan it's because they
want them in Iraq and Afghanistan ...
If they do not receive social security but are on an elite retirement
plan not available to the people, it's because they want it that way.
There are no insoluble government problems.
Do not let these 545 people shift the blame to bureaucrats, whom they
hire and whose jobs they can abolish; to lobbyists, whose gifts and advice
they can reject; to regulators, to whom they give the power to regulate and
from whom they can take this power. Above all, do not let them con you into
the belief that there exists disembodied mystical forces like "the economy,"
"inflation," or "politics" that prevent them from doing what they take an
oath to do.
Those 545 people, and they alone, are responsible.
They, and they alone, have the power.
They, and they alone, should be held accountable by the people who
are their bosses.
Provided the voters have the gumption to manage their own
employees...
Later.
02:25 NEP
China North East Petroleum reports Q2 EPS of $0.37 vs $0.025 (single est); revs declined 12% YoY to $24.3 mln (no est) (2.45)
Could have been the infamous founder of IHub, out briefly on a conjugal visit.
SSN: Samson Oil & Gas Road Show Presentation
DENVER & PERTH, Australia, Aug 09, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) --
Samson Oil & Gas Limited (ASX: SSN) (NYSE AMEX: SSN) advises that it will be meeting with several groups of institutional investors in New York this week. The written presentation containing the information to be used at these meetings has been posted on Samson's website, www.samsonoilandgas.com.
TA's quarterly earnings history is very helter-skelter. Looking at qtrly earnings over the last few years, they almost always have 1-2 qtrs/yr with bad earnings. Not sure why they cannot manage to smooth out earnings based on history of quarterly costs and revenues. In other words if they were focused on managing their business day to day, they'd reduce costs in qtrs when they should expect to bring less revenues.
???
'peeker
Good points all! I'm terrifically happy for the deal, and I hope Yamana works out also.
Cheers to Mr. Biscuit and the new COO, Mr. Littlefeet.
<3
peeker
Glad to finally see a contract signed after all this time. Everything takes more than "two weeks" and longer than any of Mr. Biscuit's estimates.