DELL PowerEdge Servers TPM centric right here!

http://www.alliante.net/products/power_inside.html

TPM with key management (Wave).

Hello Cloud Computing and no wonder Hewlett Packard is now
all over Wave!

p&f

Dell's New PowerEdge Computer for the Cloud

http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/192271/dell_aims_new_poweredge_servers_at_the_cloud.html

PowerEdge servers aiming at the Cloud. And guess what? It is TPM centric with
Wave technology. Coming up!

p&f

The New Dell in today's Barrons Mag

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126964398456568281.html?mod=rss_barrons_technology

Business Solutions. Wave is a key selling point, imho

p&f

Looks like the eSign Business is taking off!

Kelly Purcell is one heckuva businesswoman. Persistent, tough,
intelligent and a marketing whiz. eSign is going to end up being
a fantastic profit center for Wave.

mark my words.

p&f

Ramsey2 Another Fantastic Find!

I knew that Seagate had unofficially employed ERAS internally but
did not see written confirmation of it. Since yearend 2008, Seagate
has implemented many more laptops. This is nice to see in print!!!

It irks me that Wave isn't allowed to tout this stuff to the public.

thanks for the DD

p&f

This isn't 'Cramer Effect'

in my opinion.

A little snippet doesn't create volume like this especially when they still
have a 'sell' rating. Besides, it isn't Cramer who mentioned Wave on the
rag.

This has something to do with great fundamental news or potential newsflow
and I think institutional investors are slowly accumulating.

just guessing. It isn't Cramer tho

p&f

Nice volume!

good news ought to be forthcoming.

p&f

Snackman the trend is our friend.

Success begets more success. The pilots are gradually evolving into
'early pragmatists' (Crossing the Chasm).

nice.

p&f

awk It seems so revolutionary and so forth

for an investor it seems that there is so much to understand and figure
out. Investors want a business model that makes $$$$$$$. To be sure
investors want to be in the vanguard of new technologies ( the next Microsoft or
Adobe or Google), but they want to see the 'MONEY'.

I love all this new technology and so forth, but I need to know how all of it
is going to make us profits in the not-too-distant future. Could you please
explain to us technology illiterates how this id.wave operation is going to make
$$$$$$$ for Wave in the near term?

All I want is another simple "GM" deal in the neighborhood of $5 million or so.
I don't want to get sidetracked with the next cool technology like TV Tonic etc etc
etc.

Darn! There are too many balls in the air and I would prefer to see the juggler
concentrating on just three balls in order to make some serious $$$$$$$$$

Having said the above, I am sure there will be those here who will say that I am
close minded and I don't understand the sheer magnitude of what Wave is all about and
so on etc etc etc. I am the first to admit that I don't know what the techno saavy
Wavoids here are saying half the time. Most of it is way over my head. What I do
know is that investors want to see a fast path to profitability. I want Wave to focus
on profitability and revenue growth on existing sales channels rather than pursuing
new technologies which could end up going nowhere. I know I will be chastised for
saying this stuff but I hope that Wave doesn't get sidetracked by all this id.wave
stuff when they have serious business to accomplish in other areas.

just thinking out loud

p&f

StevenDice Another question on the Big 3 deal

What's your guess regarding all the secrecy? Is it the security
aspect of the ERAS itself that prompts the users to be secretive
about the whole deal? I find it curious and would like to know
your intuition on the matter? Not that it's a big thing but I
would like to get a better understanding.

Any thoughts?

p&f

StevenDice I agree w/ you 100%

No doubt Wave is devoting all their 'top guns' to make sure this
happens as smoothly as possible. No doubt there were alot of trial
runs before the Big Three (GM) client signed the contract. All of those
trial runs must have gone very very well.

Having said the above, there are ALWAYS going to be small hitches or
issues when you have a big rollout like this one. Murphy's Law, right?
But, the key is that Wave is able to solve those minor issues and get the
whole system working smoothly in the end.

Keep in mind that DELL has been testing Wave's products for years and
they have approved of its ultimate efficacy. I am sure that Wave will deliver
on this contract, but I would like to see some follow on contracts as soon as
possible.

p&f

Ramsey I am sure you are right on ADM.

But AMD has to have more than 10,000 laptops. ADM does more than $60 billion
in revenues per annum! But maybe you are right as they have about 30,000 employees.

I think you are right in terms of ADM procuring ERAS because of the language translation
issue. ADM needs the language flexibility. I sure would like to get some type of formal
announcement on the ADM program, however.

p&f

telstar You are exactly right!

The multi million $$$ contract by "GM" is the first BIG 'early pragmatist' deal.
According to G. Moore (Crossing the Chasm), a pragmatist (as opposed to an
'early Adopter') needs a 100% solution to its issues. An early Adopter doesn't
require a 100% solution. This by itself is a very very BIG deal for Wave because
Wave was able to prove that it could provide the 100% solution!

As you pointed out, it is important to deliver because Wave needs to show that it
is a mainstream type technology versus just a 'cool' type technology. As soon
as this happens there will be other big GM type contracts because the gorrillas
follow each other. We know that ADM has been a client of Wave for eighteen months.
They have been deploying the hardware globally and so they will want to manage it
in the near future. The follow up success at 'GM' will move ADM to be the next
domino to drop.

Anyway, just thinking out loud.

p&f

Weby & Golpe: The Chasm Discussion

Weby & Golpe, I read both of your posts with great interest. I have also
been doing a little research regarding Geoffrey Moore and his works.

I am very optimistic about how & what Wave is doing from a marketing and
sales viewpoint. It seems that the company is close to securing a number of
beachheads a la the Normandy assault on D-Day. Sprague is very nicely completing
his "tornado" strategy via Dell and soon-to-be HP and the others. Weby, I like
your household lock analogy. Very descriptive.

I think that Wave has established its leadership role. The recent multi million dollar
auto contract is the first deal that suggests that Wave is delivering 100% of an enterprises
needs in terms of product scope. The auto deal (Big Three and probably GM) is the
first early pragmatist delivery and that means that Wave has successfully shown that its
product can deliver the entire (100%) of a customer's needs in this area. This is key!

OK....back to studying. Thanks

p&f

Weby I am looking at your "Chasm" Graph.

Have we passed through the Chasm yet? With the
multi million auto deal can one say that the early
pragmatist era has been entered? If so, then I
guess one could say that we have passed through
the Chasm. What do you think? Are we still in
the Chasm?

thanks

p&f

I think we will be over $4 this week

too much steady buying on any weakness.
This signals good developments near term.

When exactly? Who knows. What exactly? Who knows.
But something is happening.

P&F chart is Unchanged and Bullish

p&f

Snackman P&F chart Bullish/Unchanged

So, i guess barge has his consumer story now. Wouldn't it
be funny to see ESign lead the charge on that front. When
you think about it the insurance/mortgage e signature business
is HUGE! Such a long term no brainer, especially with all
the baby boomer generation coming into play in terms of their
retirement benefits etc etc etc.

This Purcell lady is one persistent and smart lady. I think she
could be the real champ and I am willing to bet that Steven gives
her full rein because of her business savvy.

p&f

This is HUGE!

Well, there is the consumer side of the picture.

hey barge!!! where are you, dude? Here is your consumer story.

Wake up, man! LOL

p&f

Hey Weby Your chart analysis is Correct!

in my humble opinion. Anyway, next support level is around $3.20.

50% retracement is about $3.00. This is (as Clay has pointed out numerous
times) fairly significant support. We don't want to break through $3 in a
big way, technically speaking.

The P&F chart is unchanged and still long term Bullish.

I am still of the opinion that we are in a (broadly speaking) holding pattern
until the next news bombshell. Then, I think we will see new highs.

Fundamentally speaking, I think you are right vs. barge insofar as the enterprise
vs. consumer landscape. I do think that barge is right long term, but I think the
enterprise market is more important right now. We need to pay the bills and so
we need a couple more Big Three type contracts. I still think this ADM contract
could happen soon. As awk has pointed out, ADM has been a client for the last
18 months while deploying the SED's globally and sooner or later ADM is going
to want to manage all this hardware in an organizational way.

Oh well. We will just sit tight and let things happen as they may.

p&f

Snackman will Wave put the Roth presentation

on their website sometime soon?

p&f

Alladinator let's wait for the closing price.

the technicals are still very positive long term.

On another note, I think Vector Capital really got shafted with their
purchase of Alladin Software. I think Alladin's days are slowly coming
to an end. Don't you think so too?

p&f

awk Hasn't ADM deployed globally

their SED's throughout key parts of its worldwide
network? ADM is a client for eighteen months
now, so you say. That is a pretty long 'case study',
don't you think?

Time to move on from 'case study' to operational
status. ADM is a $69 billion annual revenues company.
Now, that would be one nice client.

p&f

P&F Chart Unchanged & Bullish

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=wavx,P

I think we are just in a holding pattern until the next news bombshell
drops.

p&f

ADM is long time client.

awk thanks for that little nugget of info.

Eighteen months! I guess it's time to move on from
'case study' to full fledged customer.

I guess all that language translation work is geared toward
the Global Customer, aka "The Big Three" and ADM and the
global behemoths.

what do I know?

p&f

ADM Size

$69 Billion Annual Sales

Over 28,000 employees

that's scale, baby!

p&f

Vega is a great testimonial.

Really awesome. But, I got a feeling the next big contract is going
to be ADM. They have global scale like the big auto contract. And
SKS mentioned on the CC (minute 25 thereabouts) that ADM had
deployed (SED's??) globally.

An ADM like contract would be huge because it would show that
Wave has a deep market. Not just defense, not just govt, not just
banks, BUT agricultural companies, auto companies, consulting companies,
and so on and so on.

Also, I like that E-Mortgage business. Still in its infancy but that thing
can really be big over time.

Now I know why THE JUGGLER is the symbol. LOL

p&f

Snackman, don't you love the way

these alias Wave bulls raise expectations to a fever pitch so
as to manipulate the trading activity?

Wave will report a big contract sometime this Q1 but it might not
be during the Roth conf.

There are trading pools out there that want to drive the price down
to $3 or less. They want to load up at those levels so that they can make
a ton of money when the stock price goes back up to $5 or higher.

The poor long term shareholders are being jerked around both financially
and mentally. All I can say to the long term investors is to ignore these
short term price movements. The traders are just trying to make a buck and
they don't care about the long term outlook.

Stay strong and let the traders make their quick buck but don't get sucked
into their agenda. Just stay strong to the long term outlook.

groan-------

p&f

Weby thanks, that's a "YES"

as near as I can make it.

I just love the way you make things so crystal clear. Bam Bam Bam
just the facts and no 'Haight Ashbury' type of analysis. Just clear hard
analytical thought.

thanks!

P&F

Weby At minute 25 of the CC (approximately)

SKS says that "ADM has deployed (SED's??) globally".
So, do you think ADM is the contract he is referring to?

I think that when the investing public starts seeing recurring
big contracts the light will go on.

Pls provide your thoughts.

p&f

Could someone verify

that SKS said that Wave had signed another contract (or is it
about to sign?) for first quarter? He mentioned it in the Q&A
but I would like to get some feedback.

thanks

p&f

Yes. So the breakdown is the following

4Q sales related expense went up $800,000 vs. the prior quarter (3Q 2009).
I estimate about $400,000 of this related to the hiring of some sales reps
associated with the HP deal and the tangential costs of sales materials/training.

The other $400,000 relates to marketing outreach (language translation), product
development (probably related to the new DELL platform and HP) and sales commissions.
Keep in mind that as revenues grow so will sales commissions.

So, excluding the new sales reps connected to HP and the product development expenses,
Wave would have been Cash Flow Positive this past quarter. Just barely, but CF positive.

Keep in mind that all these new expenses are really well spent. The new DELL platform
should be fantastic for sales growth. The HP relationship should be FANTASTIC for sales
growth. And the language translation is just a needed cost for global penetration.

Sales commissions is just part of the revenue story.

I like it.

p&f

Snackman Earnings Estimates

As I mentioned earlier, some missed the numbers because they could not
anticipate the higher sales related expenses incurred in 4Q vs. 3Q( 2009
prior quarter) due to the growing OEM relationship with Hewlett Packard.
This expense could not be anticipated in my opinion.

Also, some here included some revenue from the BIG THREE auto contract
which did not transpire in a meaningful way. The auto contract revenues
will start showing up in 1Q 2010.

Lastly, the govt consulting revenue from the newly signed contract ($1.6 million)
did not show up in 4Q.

So, between the greater than expected expenses from the HP deal and some
missed revenue due to Wave's very very conservative accounting/revenue recognition
system, the earnings number could have been alot different to the upside. But,
Wave is reporting numbers very conservatively so we will have to bear with it. Long
term the conservative accounting approach will help us as it smooths out revenues
and provides greater consistency. Short term it is a pain.

p&f

Profitability

Listened to the CC again.

Frankly, I think the 4Q would have been profitable had it not been for several
factors:

(A) First, Wave uses a very very conservative revenue recognition model. The
large order secured at the end of last year was not really recognized at all for
the 4Q!

(B) Second, Wave incurred much higher sales related costs in the 4Q versus
the 3Q 2009 because of the new OEM relationship with HP. If you back this
higher sales related cost, then EBITDA would have been positive.

and lastly,

(C) The 4Q contained no material govt related revenues. Again, due to Wave's
very conservative accounting system, the recently signed $1.6 million govt
consulting contract was not realized at all in the 4Q. Had this consulting contract
been somewhat realized then Wave could have shown break even or even a
small profit.

So, putting all the above together, I think Wave is essentially borderline profitable.
Other tech companies have much less stringent accounting systems. So, Wave will
eventually benefit from this much more conservative accounting system. But in the
short run, profitability will appear slow in coming. I would much rather have an
accounting model is more conservative because it will eventually be viewed as much
more RELIABLE and consistent in terms of earnings growth.

just my opinion

p&f

Snackman HUGELY POSITIVE OUTLOOK!

remember what we said earlier today.

It is looking better than I had hoped. The govt related
commentary is amazing. Thanks Dr. Thibadeau!!

p&f

HUGE!

Sorry Wavoids, no more opportunity to buy shares
much below $4. Those days are gone. LOL

imho

p&f

Very POSITIVE Business Outlook!

Huge pipeline of revenue growth!!

I think this will be the last quarter of earnings loss.
From now on we will not see losses and the EBITDA
number will explode.

Also, Wave has one of the most CONSERVATIVE accounting
models in the tech sector.

imho

p&f

New HP business & related expenses

was primary reason for greater SG&A expenses. Wave hired
several sales people to work solely on the HP deal. This is
very very big.

If you back out those expenses,then they would have hit EBITDA
break even and they would have been cash flow positive.

So, what's the big deal? Everything is right in line

p&f

Snackman I agree with you.

The financials will be pretty good. Cash flow will be very good. Billings will
be solid. Earnings will be break even. But, I will be focusing on a forward
looking statements. That will be the KEY.

imo

p&f

summerblaze Just profit taking

traders will take the sure profits off the table and
then reposition after the CC and Roth. That's just
the way it is.

Looks like the selling is slowing down and I wouldn't
be surprised to see the stock move back up over $4.

In my opinion, the only thing the long term investor
needs to focus on is the foward looking business
outlook. If the business outlook is super strong, then
the stock will move back up nicely.

imho

p&f

Today's price action is quasi fresh news

in a matter of speaking, so I am going to post one last
piece before the CC later today.

Here is my opinion. This downdraft is simply traders who are
taking recent profits before the CC. That's all it is, in my
opinion.

Now, having said the above, my suggestion is to ignore today's
price movement. What matters today is what is said at the CC
and I expect that Wave will report breakeven results with good
revenue/billings growth and cash flow positive. What is REALLY
IMPORTANT is to focus on the future business outlook. This is
the KEY thing. I have a hunch that the business outlook is going
to be really positive.

Anyway, that's my two cents worth

p&f