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+1000 tick
Straight mortgage plays WM WFC and BAC are floundering. Never underestimate the power of the PPT to pump the market as needed. They can't let the more diversified banks like JPM and C come under same pressure.
APPL new LOD
any updates on MSO chart
DNA breaking down at what price do you think support lies.
These weather forcast bozos couldn't even get the correct state right. They evacuated 2 M saps from TX and the hurricane is hitting with the eye clearly to the right of the LA border. I looked at wind reading from buoys in Gulf and every buoy located in TX had wind direction from the N or left side of storm. Buoys from LA had wind from the E or north of strom. I had go to as far as Morgan City area to get wind reading with southerly component in them.
PS Port Arthur going to get wacked hard.
She made me and distributor send copies of PO 's today. They are goign to be working overtime at Intel tonight.
You want to buy a Pentiun M 1.6 cheap <g>
PS I hope SEC doesn't start an investigation.
INTC going to make quarterly numbers by the hair of their chinny, chin chin.
I just got a call on 4:15 PM on last Friday of quarter from my Intel rep saying that if I bought 2 Mobil processors TODAY from distribution, Intel would send me one free.
I obliged; feeling confortable I could go to sleep tonight knowing INTC will be in range on their top line numbers.
Tomorrow will be first day in NJ below 80 high temperature and I can finally turn off AC for the year.
Went selectively long that which was hurricane beaten down and closed some of energy longs.
Rita's a bust as of 1:53 PM from 2 different sources. 96 MPH winds.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPPN2.shtml?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/RITA.pres.png
Rita's a bust as of 1:53 PM from 2 different sources. 96 mile an hour winds.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPPN2.shtml?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/RITA.pres.png
RE Houston
Politicians are trying to avoid the bad PR that happened in N.O. Poor people and senior citizens do not have much of a choice then to do what authorities tell them to do.
Many ill TX nursing home patients will die in transit in buses out and back then that died in N.O. They wouldn't be in nursing home in the first place if the could get up and about and be able to travel a hundred miles.
I think current track nails more rigs then more Southern path but spares refineries. I can't see gas prices coming back down pre Katrina unitl late this year but there not too much more left for strong storms in Gulf area since heat source has been removed to a large extent
Interesting web site from forecaster at FSU. He sees no more then cat 2 winds at landfall.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/
As of 7:48 AM
MAX FL WIND 123 KT NE QUAD 11:48:40 Z
or 141 MPH
Can anyone confirm mileage gains anywhere else in conuntry. I think you have to be in region cited by EPA with unhealthy summer air quality to be getting MTBE oxygenated fuel previously. For example, South NJ and PA do not have these restrictions.
RE suspending EPA regs on gasoline post Katrina and fuel economy
I filled up last week on 1 tank of BP regular gas last week and by yesterday average fuel economy gauge reading went up from 21.5 to 21.6 MPH average complied over several thousand miles driving. I decided to reset meter and I was getting readings near 25 MPH right away. I decided to top off tank this morning and asked attendant was there anything different about gas post Katrina like smell. He looked at me oddly but did say that many motorists were reporting better mileage.
I know in North NJ we get crappy oxygenated gas to help keep NYC air to the East cleaner but I was not expect the 15% increase in fuel mileage.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ213&warncounty=TXC201&local_place1=Aldine&...
Doesn't look all that bad relative to Katrina but this is going to wipe P&C insurers big time because it will be wind damage not flood or storm surge. No way to weasel out of paying claims like they will with Katrina.
COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH)
CHAMBERS 125 155
LIBERTY 115 140
POLK 100 130
GALVESTON 90 110
HARRIS 75 90
SAN JACINTO 75 90
TRINITY 75 90
BRAZORIA 60 80
WHARTON 55 70
BRAZOS 55 65
MATAGORDA 45 60
RAINFALL...
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AS IT MOVES INLAND. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TOTALS ACCUMULATIONS
IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN.
Katrina max wind before landfall
MAX FL WIND 166 KTS OUTBOUND NE QUAD 1422Z.
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/2005082814.avortex
Rita's max winds so far
MAX FL WIND 165 KT NE QUAD 05:34:00 Z
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/2005092209.avortex
Latest
MAX FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 21:24:10 Z
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/2005092222.avortex
On the NOAA web site you can get hurricane hunter data
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?
At 4 AM Max wind was 155 knots
At 12:48 PM Max wind was 148 knots
and I didin't bet market long.
At 5:24 PM max wind was 132 kt or 152 MPH.
Market may rally big time tomorrow if it drops another 20-30 knots before landfall.
SPX & BKX got PPT program trading written all over them. It is hard to separate indexes viewing Symbol overlays.
I am waiting for Mon or Tues and hopefully lower lows to go long. There is slight chance that I could go long if S&P cracked 1200 tomorrow.
I not good enough of a trader to step in right now. Only thing I acted on today is selling VLO 125 short calls against deep in the money short VLO PUTS today.
Does "no divergence to south" implying a down market close condition still valid if Rita moves to north.
RE VLO
So if you have been holding since the 80's it is time to start thinking about taking profits.
Forecasts all call for Rita to weaken to cat 3 before landfall. Without sounding too pompous, I told you guys so.
It is going to mess up some short term production on many of the rigs between Galveston and LA border and flood a lot of houses in TX but I don't see the severe refinery and energy delivery infrastructure damage as reflecting in some panicky energy prices especially for natural gas.
The computer models run at 2 PM, BAMM GFS & GFDL, got Rita staggering over central TX for about 2 days.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_model.html
We better hope for better forecasts then this. What did we do to deserve this.
Reformulated unleaded gas, RFG, is pretty much the standard and is what is traded on NYMEX.
Summmer gas regs, lower VOCs, ended I far as I can read from EPA web site. That will get rid of 2 grades as listd on NYMEX contracts specs.
It is that crappy oxygenated winter gas we get in Northern NJ coming up now with 10-15% less power and mileage I wish they do away with. I bolded it in detail below.
http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/d9bf8d9315e942578525701c005e573c/ed5a062e1b421d578525707c00....
In addition, EPA waived the federal enforceability of the summer grade gasoline required under state law in California, Eastern Texas and Phoenix, Ariz. On Aug. 31, EPA waived the federal requirement for summer grade gasoline nationwide. Under normal circumstances that requirement ends in all parts of the country on Sept. 15, except for the three areas mentioned above which, under state laws, extend the requirement until Sept. 30 (Phoenix), Oct. 1 (Texas) and Oct. 31 (California). The three states have requested that EPA waive federal enforceability of these requirements.
from NYMEX contract grade details
http://www.nymex.com/rule_main.aspx?pg=27#190.04
190.03 Grade and Quality Specifications
The oil delivered shall be a hydrocarbon oil free from alkali, mineral acid, grit, fibrous or other foreign matter, meeting the specifications then in effect at the time of delivery of the Colonial Pipeline Company (Atlanta, Georgia) for:
(A) Fungible A Grade, 87 Octane Index Gasoline or any other fungible grade 87 Octane Index Gasoline listed by the Colonial Pipeline as being properly designated for sale as Reformulated Gasoline (in New York Harbor) in accordance with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations; provided, however, and notwithstanding anything to the contrary in the Colonial Pipeline Company specifications, the specifications set forth in Subsections (A)(1) through(A)(6) below shall apply for the gravity, lead content, octane, Reid Vapor Pressure, and EPA Reformulated Gasoline requirements:
(1) Gravity: A.P.I. 52 degrees minimum (A.S.T.M. Test Method D287).
(2) Lead: maximum 0.03 grams per gallon (A.S.T.M. Test Method D2599 or equivalent).
(3) Octane: (RON+MON)/2 maximum less than 91.0. All other octane specifications shall conform to the Colonial Pipeline Company specifications then in effect.
(4) Reid Vapor Pressure: Gasoline delivered pursuant to this contract shall have Reid Vapor Pressure no greater than the following maximum levels:
MONTH P.S.I.
January 15.0
February 15.0
March 13.5
April 9.0
May 9.0
June 9.0
July 9.0
August 9.0
September 1-15 9.0
September 16-30 13.5
October 13.5
November 15.0
December 15.0
Provided that, deliveries on the September contract originally nominated for delivery on or before September 15 shall not exceed 9.0 p.s.i., regardless of the time of actual delivery.
(5)(A) Gasoline deliveries shall comply with EPA Reformulated Gasoline requirements at all times, including the minimum and maximum standards set forth in 40 C.F.R. Part 80 as are in effect for downstream parties at the time and place of delivery, and shall be adjusted by the amount of any increase or decrease in such standards as required by EPA for Reformulated Gasoline sold and distributed for consumption in the New York Harbor area. Gasoline deliveries shall comply with New Jersey requirements for oxygen content for gasoline sold for consumption as are in effect at the time and place of delivery, to the extent that such State requirements are not superseded by EPA requirements for gasoline sold for consumption in Northern New Jersey.
(B) Gasoline shall be designated as VOC-Controlled Reformulated Gasoline in accordance with EPA regulations during the period April 1 through September 15, including any deliveries on the September contract originally nominated for delivery on or before September 15, regardless of the date of actual delivery.
(C)(1) All tests shall be performed in accordance with EPA regulations.
(2) Enforcement tolerances, as permitted by EPA for downstream parties, shall apply to all specifications governed by EPA regulations. Product delivered in conformance with such specifications, including enforcement tolerances, may not be rejected by the buyer as nonconforming to the specifications.
(3) A.S.T.M. refers to the American Society for Testing Materials.
(4) A.P.I. refers to the American Petroleum Institute.
At some point, tankers will bring in gas refined overseas if the price is right.
I see two of them south of Veranzano Bridge right now.
http://mc2.metrocommute.com/cgi-bin/metro/video/BROOKLYN/video20110.html
Things aint right in North NJ regarding prices and we have plenty of refineries. No matter where you compare NJ to other parts of country we have 20-40 cent preminum since the hurricane.
http://www.newjerseygasprices.com/retail_price_chart.aspx
Back to gasoline prices
In NJ, no price increases in last 3-4 days. They are holding firm at $2.89.
Anyone use e85; 85% ethanol. At 105 octane, it gets lousy fuel mileage since engine computers are not optimized for it.
I would have to say that it may be heading a little further south of Galveston then yesterday's track which is good for BP and others that have facilities South of Houston but someone going to get wacked near Corpus Christi. Anyone on thread from Texas.
I guess hedge funds hire forecasters to help them decide to make trades. WMFI sank to 128 rallying to 130 as Houston is now out of cross hairs.
DELL is interesting case at 52 W low.
Hurricane hunters not making another flight over Rita until after market close at 4:15 PM. So hurricane strength is mostly speculation right now.
PS it is going to be major flooding event for most of Texas.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
1130 AM EDT TUE 20 SEP 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEP 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-115
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE RITA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 21/1615Z A. 21/1800,22/0000Z
Also, like I said before Western Gulf is now at 85 degrees not 90 when Katrina hit. Right now Rita is over warmest water it will encounter so wind speed should be at it's highest.
Forecaster as of 8 AM is hedging that Rita may decrease to cat 3 storm some what like a ice skater opening their arms wider from their body slowing down their spin as it passes over slightly cooler water.
THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IN THE AREA OF THE LOOP CURRENT SO
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED....BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.
Went long VMC. Somebody got to have pricing power with higher energy costs.
What a difference a day makes
if jpg's didn't have hurricane name in them it you would be hard to say which was bigger.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCrita264_G12.jpg
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCKatrina239_MO.jpg
After N.O., authorities got to do something to get people so scared to evacuate rather then to stay.
Besides barrier islands like Galveston, elevations rise up higher closer to coast then then in N.O. Mobile and Gulfport where storm surge related flooding killed most. Wind usually doesn't kill.
If this is decline of substance, BKX will get oversold to below 95 region then I would consider start betting long again. AG would probably change wording to ease up on rate hikes because FNM FRE AIG C JPM will be squawking aggressively for easing of rate increases. Include GE IBM and other large multinationals who have large business in capital leases. GE trying to get Genworth totally off their books but that is a foul egg they are trying to hatch.
I saw one of those Shell enivirofriendly TV ads talk about it but I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn last night.
30 ft seas predictedf for flower garden section of Gulf
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shmrn.php?mz=gmz080
WFMI got 4 big stores in Houston so they will have some additional 3rd Q earnings hits if Rita goes there.
I went short AIG & WFMI long oils in part that 2 PM computer model track has Rita going to Houston.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_model.html
By my reckoning, Hurricane Rita will have landfall about 250 miles from Crawford TX.
Sorry I was watching VLO strengthen <vbg>
A lot more energy in 90 degree Gulf water then 85 degree water post Katrina. it is hard to have 2 cat 4 storms over same track since first big storm consumed and/or stirred up the hot surface waters depriving the second storm of that source of energy. In two weeks, waters will be cooler still and not be able to pack much of a punch.
IE futures market will go into a tizzy if we have early cold spell. <g>
OT economic stats
I been doing chrysanthemum sale for 3 years at my church. Sales were off 40-55% this year vs wide measure of metrics from last 2 years.
Sales over $3200 last 2 years vs $1500 this year. Average ticket $12 vs over $20 last 2 years. No buyers over $40 vs multiple buyers over $100 previously.
We just finished up Hurricane relief collections of $17K so parish is not indigent but may be temporally tapped out. It seemed that 95% of those who made their payment including a $20 bill received change back vs spending that amount or more previously. I finished sale today after well over 100 transactions with 3 singles and 1 5 dollar bill in cash.
The elderly buyers who would buy one plant previously didn't participate. Ditto for non parishioners coming off the street who bought 10-20% of totals previously.
We have several possible reasons like excessive heat (a new record for average summer temperature measuring above 72.5 will be set this year), late school start, increasing deer predation problems for poor sales results but advertizing and quality of plants did not contribute to sales shortfall.
I have to continue sale next weekend to sell of other half of plants to make the expected profits.
Going to stop now otherwise I will sound like a guy who spend too much time in the sun recently <g>.
Noticed from National Weather Center that most of meteorological monitoring sites South of Lake Pontcatrain state the listed sea level elevation of less then 3 ft above sea level.
N.O. is just part of the problem. You still have Kenner, Chalemtte, Port Sulfur etc.
What portion of LA is worth rebuilding to survive the next big one and what returns to a program to rebuild the swamps.