Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Unbelievable, utterly ridiculous, pardon me, may toss my cookies
all over the board.
Soft Music~~~
Soft Folk Rock/Ballads-The one and only James Taylor~
Fire and Rain
BLUES?
Have a GREAT Weekend All~ God Bless, and prayers for FL
->College Football TV Schedule and times
https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/college-football-tv-schedule-game-times-preview
https://www.espn.com/college-football/schedule
Fed's Brainard warns restrictive interest rates may be needed 'for some time'
Additional 'inflationary shocks' cannot be ruled out, Fed vice chair sayys
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard on Friday stressed the need to combat scorching-hot inflation with higher interest rates and pledged the central bank will not prematurely pull back on tighter monetary policy.
In a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Brainard emphasized that officials will proceed both "deliberately and in a data-dependent manner" when forging monetary policy amid growing concerns about a global recession.
"Monetary policy will need to be restrictive for some time to have confidence that inflation is moving back to target," she said. "For these reasons, we are committed to avoiding pulling back prematurely."
Cont @
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/feds-brainard-warns-restrictive-interest-rates-needed-some-time
Barrons<> The 5 Best-and 5 Worst-S&P 500 Stocks in the Quarter
September 30, 3:05 pm
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/best-and-worst-of-s-p-500-stocks-51664564552?mod=newsviewer_click_realtime
DOW lost 29,000, getting hammered again, down over 300
Fingers crossed for ya! It's hard enough right now, but at the end of the quarter and
a shuffle-master game, it's a challenge!
Lehman 2.0 Has The Fed Cornered
September 30, 2022
Very Long Informative Read-
Editors choice
Closing paragraph
Either way, the global economic outlook remains struck in an increasingly opaque cloud of uncertainty. Volatility remains the near-term theme. While it may seem that the macro outlook is gaining some clarity after the Fed put its foot down on maintaining an aggressive tightening trajectory to tame inflation, the latest development regarding pension funds and LDIs - which have "largely gone unremarked" - introduces yet another layer of complexity to the dire market climate as if the flurry of unexpected events this year spanning protracted COVID restrictions and related disruptions, supply chain constraints, and impacts from the Russia-Ukraine war and ensuing sanctions were not enough to choke valuations across the board.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544049-lehman-2-0-has-the-fed-cornered-equities-are-at-risk
"Yes, The Market is Categorically Unfun and Ugly", What JPMorgan's
Traders Think Happens Next
Equities remain at the mercy of eco data and the bond market. Economic data remains solid (PCE, Jobs, etc.) albeit backwards looking and, in concert with the fed commentary, won’t allow for the market to be constructive just yet (even as high frequency data points to lower inflation). Yesterday’s Long-Only buyers in TMT (primarily the megacaps) are notably absent or more passive, while see more defensive buying in Telco, etc. AAPL breaking is making things a bit precarious for everyone and everything. The desk is 1.3:1 better for sale now with volumes down in the HSD% range. It’s early, but conversations continue to skew bearish with the challenge to find the bullish narrative. I still think the risk-reward is fairly balanced here at 3600-3700.
The tape remains very choppy and macro driven. ETF volumes are currently in the high-30%s (and were >40% this am). Liquidity in S&P futures is ok while Treasuries (and from what I hear in the bond market) remains abysmal. The strength in the MOVE Index and the sustained VIX Index levels have led to risk management challenges (which typically leads to de-risking) and broad frustration. It’s hard to fight the Fed commentary (and CBs more broadly) + hot global macro data. It remains The Fed Funds ceiling – which was a tailwind for the past two days – has crept back up today to ~4.53%.
We have been consolidating for a little while this am 3620-3650. Our supply is drying up a bit (we are now 1.2:1 better to buy on the desk) and there’s a lot of hope (again, per [@Jack Johnston] perhaps not the best strategy – but sometimes you must work with what you have) that we could rally post the European close
Brian Heavey (Consumer)
NKE: Overall the print is mixed; the top-line is very strong (NA nearly doubled our estimate at 10% FXN vs. St. 4.5%, EMEA in-line and sequential improvement in China). EPS beat JPM and missed Street by a penny (.93 vs. St. .94 and JPMe .87). Higher tax rate hurt EPS by 5 cents - so revenues and operational EPS beat vs Street. The GM was down ~220bps which offset the revenue beat and is tied to the inventory clearing actions NKE has been undertaking (recall Boss has been previewing this has seasonal inventory has being cleared). We will guide on the call which will be the main driver of the stock (as well as information on inventory clearance).
The desk was very active yesterday w/ primarily LO demand in discretionary and supply in Staples (i.e. much more "risk on" in nature). Client activity is down substantially today as the daily volatility remains paralyzing.
I think the magnitude of the KMX miss shows just how much downside remains in SPX earnings estimates. Yes, I think expectations were low, but KMX embodies all of the issues facing the market right now: Weakening consumer demand, higher SG&A (primarily Labor), and difficulty in forecasting given a rapidly changing macro environment. This follows an EPS cut from VFC yesterday, and while a lot of VFC's issues are company and brand specific, it was another data point that the $230 EPS estimate for the SPX that even the bulls are clinging to is probably too high.
It's not all bad today... we are finally seeing the DXY stop making new highs. I think if we can move the USD into a downtrend it will provide some relief to EPS estimates (especially in the more FX sensitive staples names). Today's move lower is immaterial in the context of the last few weeks rip, but something to watch going forward
Stuart Humphrey (TMT)
MU | Bad Q, worse guide. Q4 revs in at $6.64B vs STe at $6.73B and JPMe at $6.56B (we lowered estimates into the print) with Q1 guide well below as revs for Q1 to be $4.25B at midpt vs STe of $5.71B came in well below expectations - GMs down below 30%, likely cutting utilization. Double ordering and supply chains are easing. Stock might be down more prob if not for positioning and the 50% capex cut vs last year.
Then we move on to the JPM strategists and economists:
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou (strategist)
Nikolaos reminds us that cash allocation for non-bank investors has risen sharply this year due to simultaneous decline in both equities and bonds, and “a backdrop of high cash allocation may provide backstop for both equities and bonds likely limiting any further downside from here.” JPM still feels like a bear rally would be difficult to launch without a better CPI print to boost the market sentiment. As we are closer to Q3 earnings, a better-than-expected earnings and companies outlooks may also trigger a rally, but the margin shrinking and FX risks are still the biggest unknowns. More bullets from his note below:
Following this year’s unprecedented rise in bond yields, we find that non-bank investors globally have erased 14 years of previous bond overweights and lowered their allocation to bonds to only 17% currently, even below the pre-Lehman crisis average of 18%.
We see two main implications from this low bond allocation. First, going forward a sustained bull market in equities could require a bull market in bonds. Second, the pressure on multi asset investors to sell equities to offset the mechanical increase in their equity allocations stemming from bond price declines has diminished.
Outside any interplay between equity and bond allocations, a backdrop of high cash allocations provides in our opinion a backstop to both equities and bonds, likely limiting any further downside from here.
Revenue has declined for ethereum block makers post merge, yet the staking yield has increased
This year’s rise in bond yields is of historic proportions. The 250bp YTD rise in the Global Agg bond index yield that took place in a period of nine months, represents the steepest and largest rise in the history of the index, exceeding the bond yield rise of 1994. What is even more unprecedented is the decline in the return of the Global Agg bond index on a currency unhedged basis. Effectively more than a decade of previous returns has been unwound in a period of only nine months.
Cont
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yes-market-categorically-unfun-and-ugly-what-jpms-traders-think-happens-next
Kroger plans to end agreement with Cigna's Express Scripts due to
'unsustainable' drug prices
Kroger said it has attempted on "dozens" of occasions since February to negotiate in good faith for a more "equitable and fair contract" that lowers costs, increases access and provides more transparency, "but there has been little to no progress to date." Kroger said more than 90% of Kroger Health's customers will not be affected by a termination of the Express Scripts agreement, but if a new agreement is not reached by Dec. 31, most Express Scripts' commercial customers won't be able to fill prescriptions at Kroger stores. Shares of Kroger have slipped 2.5% year to date and Cigna's have rallied 22.3%, while the S&P 500 SPX, -0.53% has dropped 23.6%.
full https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kroger-plans-to-end-agreement-with-cignas-express-scripts-due-to-unsustainable-drug-pricing-2022-09-30?siteid=rss
U.S. House Democrat accuses party leaders of derailing stock-
trading bill
A vunerable Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives accused her party's leaders on Friday of undermining efforts to move forward before the Nov. 8 midterm elections on a bill to restrict members of Congress and other government officials from trading in stocks.
"This moment marks a failure of House leadership — and it's yet another example of why I believe that the Democratic Party needs new leaders in the halls of Capitol Hill," Representative Abigail Spanberger said in a blistering statement.
Spanberger is a moderate Virginia Democrat facing a competitive reelection bid against Republican Yesli Vega in November, which will determine party control in Congress during the last two years of President Joe Biden's four-year term.
(she gets an A for effort whatever the reason)
full
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-democrat-accuses-party-leaders-derailing-stock-trading-bill-2022-09-30/
Oh my, I'm shocked! See the DOW finally lost that 30,000
Try to come back later~
Nicely green early, then Red, now green again...Chop-Chop
Yikes, triple duplicate, hubs wheels turning slowwwwwwwwwwww
Micron earnings suggest the chip downturn could be worse than Wall Street expects
You post quite a few "nice ones" ones yourself~~ DOW just went RED
was 200+ green earlier
Good grief, that's a circle of loaded wagons, hope you can
handle the weight to unload them!
Futures green, has slowly been going lower....
Barrons<>The First Three Quarters of 2022 Have Been Bad.
The Fourth Could Be Worse.
(LONG article-Has a Listen link)
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/things-to-know-today-51664533678?mod=newsviewer_click
U.S. Investors brace for more wild market gyrations after dizzying
Q3
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-investors-brace-more-wild-market-gyrations-after-dizzying-q3-2022-09-30/
Explainer: How a massive options trade by a JPMorgan fund can
move markets
A nearly 16 Billion fund is expected to reset its options
positions on Friday-potential to add to volatility
(Should be Many doing the re-shuffle at end here of the gloomy quarter)
Full @
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/how-massive-options-trade-by-jp-morgan-fund-can-move-markets-2022-09-29/
ZEAL $17.59 Zealand Pharma Phase 3 Short-Bowel Syndrome hits key goal
GCT $11.46 GigaCloud Technology shares rise 2q results
Highlights
Total revenues were $124.0 million in the second quarter of 2022, an increase of 11.0% from $111.8 million in the second quarter of 2021.
Net income was $6.1 million in the second quarter of 2022, compared to $13.6 million in the second quarter of 2021.
more https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gigacloud-technology-inc-announces-second-100000847.html
Morning Bid: Last Lap
SNIP
Over the past 35 years these indices have only recorded three or more negative quarters on two other occasions - the Great Financial Crash and the dotcom bust of 2000/2001. And for the S&P500, you have to go all the way back to 1984 for another losing streak of that length.
With financial markets under growing stress - and central banks in Japan, Britain and China intervening variously in currency and bond markets to suppress mounting volatility - investors will look to the final quarter for some signs of credit squeeze
easing.
Full @
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-usa-2022-09-30/
Coordinated Action to Tame Dollar a Matter of Time, Barrow says
Standard Bank’s Barrow sees central banks acting together
Action to curb dollar would be first of its kind since 1980s
Full @
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-30/coordinated-intervention-to-tame-dollar-just-a-matter-of-time?srnd=markets-vp
This is the Time when 'accidents' Like Enron and Lehman have Happened-
This JPMorgan quant Prefers Bonds Over Stocks
September 30
The old expression is when the tide goes out, you get to see who's swimming
naked.
In financial markets, the tide is going out when central banks are raising interest rates and growth is slowing. That is to say, right now.
(As posted prior, this is my gut feeling screaming-Beware!)
"WorldCom, Enron, Bear Stearns, Lehman’s, accounting irregularities etc. have all occurred when the cycle is slowing and the Fed is raising rates,” says Khuram Chaudhry, a European equity quantitative strategist at JPMorgan in London. “The probability of an ‘accident’ is very high right now, than at any time over the recent past.”
Chaudhry says JPMorgan’s own quant macro index suggests bond returns are likely to get a bid very soon, as it’s edging further into contraction territory.
Inflation expectations are high, but inflation has peaked, he says. If history is a guide to where we are today, then bond yields should soon peak and start to move significantly lower, the Fed’s target rate will peak sooner than the market is currently forecasting, and equities will remain volatile even through the first part of the next interest-rate easing cycle.
More than that, bond yields peak when the yield curve inverts. “During June/July, bond yields fell 100bps from 3.5% to 2.5% and a rotation towards bond proxies within equities followed with quality and selected growth stocks outpacing Value and high Risk stocks. We believe, if we are right that an inverted yield curve soon leads to a peak in bond yields then the ‘trailer’ we saw over the summer is very likely to support bond prices, quality stocks and more defensive sector positioning,” he says.
Charts and more @
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-time-when-accidents-like-enron-and-lehman-have-happened-this-jpmorgan-quant-prefers-bonds-over-stocks-11664530807?mod=newsviewer_click
NIKE stock price cut to $115 from $130 at Jefferies
Mish<> 'No Recession' Idea Based On GDI Was Just Revised
Out The Window
12 hours ago
https://mishtalk.com/economics/no-recession-idea-based-on-gdi-was-just-revised-out-the-window
Nike shares fall, ALS drug approved, and more: Friday's five things to know
The markets will be reacting to a slew of key economic reports including consumer sentiment and Midwest business
Nike shares fell 9% in extended trading after the company said inventories rose 44% to $9.7 billion in the latest quarter, and higher discounts and freight costs squeezed profit margins.
Nike reported revenue of $12.7 billion, up 4% compared with a year earlier.
AMYLXX shares rose 9% in extended trading after U.S. health officials approved a drug to treat the deadly illness known as Lou Gehrig's disease.
The Food and Drug Administration approved the medication based on results from one small, mid-stage study according to The Associated Press.
The agency's internal scientists repeatedly said the company's results were not convincing. But thousands of patients have urged the FDA to be flexible and grant patients' access.
Biogen soared on Alzheimer's drug developments
More https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/nike-shares-fall-als-drug-approved-fridays-5-things-know
Lou Gehrig’s disease has no cure and most patients die within five years of initial
Stock Futures Rise Ahead of Consumer - Spending Data
You juiced it out, to the last drop~
Yesterday, DG and MG, a couple of Worker Bees!
Good Work Guys~~
Check back later~~POOF~~
PLTR $7.94<>U.S. Army Research Lab extends contract---
$229 Million contract over one year
$7.88 (looks like sell the news so far)
FSR Fisker gets its hands on prototype Ocean vehicles as it preps
for official production
RAD $7.03 Rite Aid Non-gap EPS of -$.63, misses by $0.17, revenue of
$5.9B beats by $40 M
APRN $6.21 Could Blue Apron Stock Really Soar 100% Because
of Its Turnaround Efforts?
September 29th
Blue Apron has a turnaround effort underway
Blue Apron went public in 2017 and had healthy year-over-year revenue growth of 11% that year. However, the company was clearly "buying" its growth by incentivizing low-value customers to use the platform, hoping they'd eventually become loyal fans of the brand.
Cont
https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/29/could-blue-apron-stock-really-soar-100-percent/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article