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"Yes, The Market is Categorically Unfun and Ugly", What JPMorgan's
Traders Think Happens Next

Equities remain at the mercy of eco data and the bond market. Economic data remains solid (PCE, Jobs, etc.) albeit backwards looking and, in concert with the fed commentary, won’t allow for the market to be constructive just yet (even as high frequency data points to lower inflation). Yesterday’s Long-Only buyers in TMT (primarily the megacaps) are notably absent or more passive, while see more defensive buying in Telco, etc. AAPL breaking is making things a bit precarious for everyone and everything. The desk is 1.3:1 better for sale now with volumes down in the HSD% range. It’s early, but conversations continue to skew bearish with the challenge to find the bullish narrative. I still think the risk-reward is fairly balanced here at 3600-3700.

The tape remains very choppy and macro driven. ETF volumes are currently in the high-30%s (and were >40% this am). Liquidity in S&P futures is ok while Treasuries (and from what I hear in the bond market) remains abysmal. The strength in the MOVE Index and the sustained VIX Index levels have led to risk management challenges (which typically leads to de-risking) and broad frustration. It’s hard to fight the Fed commentary (and CBs more broadly) + hot global macro data. It remains The Fed Funds ceiling – which was a tailwind for the past two days – has crept back up today to ~4.53%.
We have been consolidating for a little while this am 3620-3650. Our supply is drying up a bit (we are now 1.2:1 better to buy on the desk) and there’s a lot of hope (again, per [@Jack Johnston] perhaps not the best strategy – but sometimes you must work with what you have) that we could rally post the European close
Brian Heavey (Consumer)

NKE: Overall the print is mixed; the top-line is very strong (NA nearly doubled our estimate at 10% FXN vs. St. 4.5%, EMEA in-line and sequential improvement in China). EPS beat JPM and missed Street by a penny (.93 vs. St. .94 and JPMe .87). Higher tax rate hurt EPS by 5 cents - so revenues and operational EPS beat vs Street. The GM was down ~220bps which offset the revenue beat and is tied to the inventory clearing actions NKE has been undertaking (recall Boss has been previewing this has seasonal inventory has being cleared). We will guide on the call which will be the main driver of the stock (as well as information on inventory clearance).

The desk was very active yesterday w/ primarily LO demand in discretionary and supply in Staples (i.e. much more "risk on" in nature). Client activity is down substantially today as the daily volatility remains paralyzing.
I think the magnitude of the KMX miss shows just how much downside remains in SPX earnings estimates. Yes, I think expectations were low, but KMX embodies all of the issues facing the market right now: Weakening consumer demand, higher SG&A (primarily Labor), and difficulty in forecasting given a rapidly changing macro environment. This follows an EPS cut from VFC yesterday, and while a lot of VFC's issues are company and brand specific, it was another data point that the $230 EPS estimate for the SPX that even the bulls are clinging to is probably too high.
It's not all bad today... we are finally seeing the DXY stop making new highs. I think if we can move the USD into a downtrend it will provide some relief to EPS estimates (especially in the more FX sensitive staples names). Today's move lower is immaterial in the context of the last few weeks rip, but something to watch going forward
Stuart Humphrey (TMT)

MU | Bad Q, worse guide. Q4 revs in at $6.64B vs STe at $6.73B and JPMe at $6.56B (we lowered estimates into the print) with Q1 guide well below as revs for Q1 to be $4.25B at midpt vs STe of $5.71B came in well below expectations - GMs down below 30%, likely cutting utilization. Double ordering and supply chains are easing. Stock might be down more prob if not for positioning and the 50% capex cut vs last year.

Then we move on to the JPM strategists and economists:

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou (strategist)

Nikolaos reminds us that cash allocation for non-bank investors has risen sharply this year due to simultaneous decline in both equities and bonds, and “a backdrop of high cash allocation may provide backstop for both equities and bonds likely limiting any further downside from here.” JPM still feels like a bear rally would be difficult to launch without a better CPI print to boost the market sentiment. As we are closer to Q3 earnings, a better-than-expected earnings and companies outlooks may also trigger a rally, but the margin shrinking and FX risks are still the biggest unknowns. More bullets from his note below:

Following this year’s unprecedented rise in bond yields, we find that non-bank investors globally have erased 14 years of previous bond overweights and lowered their allocation to bonds to only 17% currently, even below the pre-Lehman crisis average of 18%.

We see two main implications from this low bond allocation. First, going forward a sustained bull market in equities could require a bull market in bonds. Second, the pressure on multi asset investors to sell equities to offset the mechanical increase in their equity allocations stemming from bond price declines has diminished.

Outside any interplay between equity and bond allocations, a backdrop of high cash allocations provides in our opinion a backstop to both equities and bonds, likely limiting any further downside from here.



Revenue has declined for ethereum block makers post merge, yet the staking yield has increased

This year’s rise in bond yields is of historic proportions. The 250bp YTD rise in the Global Agg bond index yield that took place in a period of nine months, represents the steepest and largest rise in the history of the index, exceeding the bond yield rise of 1994. What is even more unprecedented is the decline in the return of the Global Agg bond index on a currency unhedged basis. Effectively more than a decade of previous returns has been unwound in a period of only nine months.

Cont

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yes-market-categorically-unfun-and-ugly-what-jpms-traders-think-happens-next