Moving the Shrimp to Fiji, if the plan works.
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I have a decline line from 2014 around $49 bbl. I don't think it's strong enough, but it will rattle a few cages.
FED only thinks they control rates. Bankers adjust them daily. Long Bonds are going down. Ask Santelli. Look a Bill Gross. He's the Bond King, and he is 73% in short term notes.
Mostly a fickle face. Weeklies tell a story. If interest rates rise, so do options premiums. I might even have to buy VXX after I trade out of the short bonds.
You crazy man. I'm still on the bench. Member, I said consolidation? Try $TMV. It's gonna fly.
Boys just pulled the bear flag head fake. Should be done. Stick a fork in it. $TMV to the moon!
I think I'm up $50 too. But that's a lot better than being down $10K like I was three weeks ago.
I was a shortie, then I went long. Tried a few more shorts, but I'm not going back there until about $55 bbl. Late October, maybe?
Looks like mo is taking over.
Must be the perfect time to short.
I just went long.
Perfect technicals on RBOB. I can add notes if you don't see it.
http://tos.mx/WFCWf1
The drillers will probably throw some shorts in for their hedge books, but more likely towards 55. I am sitting through the consolidation, but loading the XLE on every move up.
Trading range of 52-54 should be very good for drillers, IMHO.
XLE is dancing up a storm. Wouldn't want to go sailing in this weather.
I think she's gonna blow. Clears 49, and into the mid-fifties by Sept. If it doesn't clear by Friday, we'll call it bearish.
Harpex is looking good. Would look a lot better if we owned a few ships.
http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?timePeriod=Years5&&dataType=Harpex&floatLeft=None&floatRight=None
I might even sleep in tomorrow. Skip the EIA and wait for the FED.
I don't expect a rate hike, but bond traders are like oil traders. The news isn't so important in the long run. Whips around a bit on the news, then acts on anticipations.
I think the glut is real. Fake news is a 10m bbl draw down. Shipped out, but not spent. On the good side, the foreign buyers found recent lows attractive, so speculators have a smaller downside.
CL has a long term trend line ahead. I think I'm going back to playing bonds while they sort it out.
I'm liking my chances on the equity side. VDE and XLE. Energy with a bottom should work. If CL cracks 49, energy stocks will climb.
I should probably add positions.
I'm going to short the bonds and try to raise some cash. Out of here for now.
I think it was. Where did 10 mmbbl go? Sudden increase in gasoline consumption? I doubt it. Shipped to India? Maybe, but still a bit fast for such a recent development.
Could discount the number a bit, buy even 5 would be strong.
Stopped moving on the 20 week again. Nice support, but I dare not go long. The right shoulder went higher than I expected, but lower than my second choice.
https://s.tradingview.com/x/moWY8k17/
Tomorrow, The FED. Need I say more?
Usually too much fun for me. I usually try to sit it out, or go neutral. Was short today on that snap angle, but it came too slow.
I guess a 4 Mill bbl build. Just a WAG based on last two weeks of draw and gasoline inventory at and since July 4. Would be short if the numbers play out. Long if it draws big.
All too often, the API numbers are great, even though they suck, if you know what I mean.
Covered the short. Price action too slow for a "snap" back.
I'm not playing for a crawl back.
I totally hate UCO. Contango eats everything fast, so you have to trade those moves.
It's cheaper than it was a few years ago. Can't blame ya for being bullish in 2017.
Volume leading up to, and following the last price move gives me hope for a lower close. I'm probably just going to take the trade if I get it, and be flat for supply data.
Churning a lot.
BTW, I'm using DWT for my short, so I just collect contango if I hold it for time. No premium shrink that I see.
I figure today's rally was short covering because of Saudi announcement last night. The real fun starts after API and EIA.
I'm reshorting on the snap back possibility. (Going now)
Let's see how deep the pockets are.
Oil is slimy, and so are some of the MM's.
I almost plan on the periodic shakedown. And try to have some powder dry to take advantage.
Not profitable. Just dodged a few bullets. Lost a lot less than I could have.
I shorted, then covered, shorted, then covered, and I'm short again, since my last post. Still targeting 49, but attempting to trade in the meantime.
Friday was brutal. Whatever they were thinking could come back and bite.
I'm pretty confident on the H&S. Unloaded my last stab at the 20 week, went long, then went short, then long again. Caught some of the bounces off the 20. That 20 should be the neckline. If it busts that, the long bond is toast.
Who wants to lend money at these rates? Has the whole world gone bonkers?
What are you seeing over there? Draghi held the rates. Made US Bonds fill the right shoulder of an H&S. I'm shorting it. It's like a 30 year loan at a low rate. Lord knows what I'll buy with their money.
Is their economy dragging or failing?
A little trading action instead of straight up. Shot across the bow to relieve an otherwise dreary summer.
Tell me about it. I just had a hunch that a little dip was overdue. It started playing out, and I followed the mo.
Russian Hackers.
Got any updates? I am reloading for another round.
Looks like an inverted H&S to me.
I'm not picking any bottom just yet, and I ran out of cash scalping over the past few days. I have no margin account, just cash trades, and today's trade won't settle for 3 days. I have some funds clearing tomorrow, I think.
Great call. I wasn't here to chat this morning, but made the same call, and dumped it all.
Dodged a bullet.
BTW, I was thinking 35 a few months ago. The support in the low forties changed my mind, and gave me the trendline.
I'm buying oil and energy equities. Trading a bit for quick hits, but mostly long.
I'm not a big fan of Global Warming, but if winter is too warm, I could see 37. My long term trend line comes in about 43.5. Overproduction? Ok. We could go lower. Consistent drawdowns, I don't see it.
The "Holder" will probably contact a newsletter and get it sold.