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Viking....thank you for sharing.
I'm aware of the previous posts/links. This one was interesting because it wasn't plantiff's suing Yao, it was where Yao is suing Crisnic Fund. Maybe it was brought up already, just don't remember it.
CNAM...CEO's lawsuit against Crisnic Fund
interesting link posted on Yahoo:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/37761602/Exhibit-8-Declaration-of-Kexuan-Yao
I think we are going to need some favorable results from management before we break $5. The plus is that Barron's has been buying a lot lately---that tells us they like the price obviously. What does that really mean?.....well, since they have people stationed in Shanghai then they have a solid read on the power outage situation and work utilization/potential of the the new plant. Better than anyone else on any of the message boards. Worden/Barron must not be thinking there will be an extension of the power shut-down (or else they'd probably wait for the price to drop down on another disappointment announcement).
Obviously they are in CNAM for the long-term (cause by having to file Form 4's it will be hard for them to sell out there position easily without spooking the price underneath them), but I also think they are the best indicator of what the plant is doing short-term too.
I was waiting for the Form 4 to come out today. The trading on Friday was obvious someone was buying blocks at times. It will be interesting to see where/when he stops. I put my money on a cool 3 million shares (as long as the price stays under $4 for him to do it).
CNAM will have the potential to be a "low-float momo runner" if he buys up enough of the float and the company puts out some amazing good news.
Keeps getting more and more interesting.
CNAM....more buying by Worden/Barron Partners. 116K shares.
Form 4 filed Tuesday: http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=7491023-4547-21089&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=755255&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fcik%253d1410711
10 bagger....CNAM..."This is the KISS OF DEATH for CNAM".. hank
after today's Form 4 that's 2.1 million shares purchased by Worden/Barron Partners on the open market. I have to say that without them buying the stock may have died but it could be said instead that Barron is giving them mouth-to-mouth resuscitation.
Another day, another Form 4 filed, another 100K shares for Worden/Barron Partners. That gives them a total of 2,135,505 shares bought.
Actually I'd like to think they've hired him to use his connections to help them find reliable sources of scrap for the future. That's the key to it all....if they can find enough scrap (at a fair price) then expansion is just a matter of time.
Maybe he can make sure they don't get their power turned off again! Seriously though, it seems like a good connection to have. I do like the "further expansion" part. I think they are going to need to start building the next plant soon so it'll be ready by the end of next year (and yeah, that's a risk since they haven't even got the first one up and going at full speed, but momentum in this sector is important IMO).
Viking...I added more shares yesterday at the market open. I don't see us dropping below $3 no matter what. I'm not sure when the move upward will be--I think some positive news will need to come out of the company first.
It's actually rather amazing how many shares he's bought in such a short time. Talk about an aggressive move in a small cap Chinese stock. I wonder how many more he's going to buy before it's all done?!?!!
It makes me feel better about my investment when a "big fish" is just as positive about the company. Makes me nervous though that the stock is in the low $3s even with all his buying. Wonder what would of happened if he hadn't been there? Cause if he stops buying and any more bad news is released we may find out.
If Worden can put up $7.4M+ for his shares, I can patiently wait a long time for mine to break $15+.
Worden is going to mop up everything at this rate! Another 70K+ shares the last couple days. He will bring attention to CNAM by his insider purchases if nothing else.
Another day, another 113K shares picked up by Barron Partners/Worden. Not too shabby :0)
Viking...I'd be very interested in your assessment of what Worden has to say. My gripe about Barron Partners is that they have a knack of getting sweetheart deals from small companies that need financing. I would be a bit disappointed if somehow they hadn't bought CNAM on the open market but instead through some discount transaction. Other than that I think it's great that they are locking up the float. This stock trades a high percentage of the float on a daily basis anyways---someday when great news comes out the stock will trade 2M+ shares and, because there is such a small float available, move in an exaggerated direction. I like stocks that go crazy!
Viking....I wouldn't necessarily say they are a high quality investor, but when their purchase price is the same level as ours than that's ok. If they aid in "pumping" the price up to a more reasonable level than that works for me. Plus, now that they are a 10% owner we will know their every move (buying/selling).
The obviously are familiar with the plant (with their offices in NY and Shanghai and Shanghai not being very far from Jiangsu Province). That's a good sign of confidence.
It's amazing the number of new negative posters on Yahoo. Maybe that's a good sign that we are nearing the bottom and will start to rebound.
oops...that's 1.3M shares that he used as collateral.
CNAM CEO and his 1.9M shares versus Crisnic Fund. Lawsuit keeps going. Of course the attorneys for Crisnic Fund make a lot of negative comments in the document. Interesting to see how it plays out. Doesn't really affect the business of CNAM, but doesn't help the credibility in this China Smallcap time of worry/fraud/concern.
It would be nice to see a positive article from CNAM to turn the tide :0)
http://www.scribd.com/doc/37592330/China-Armco-Metals-Sued-for-Securities-Fraud-Kexuan-Yao-Fraud-Board-Cover-Up-Chinese-Stocks
Actually the way she described it is that CNAM got hit with just 15 days worth because they are so new. It's also why management is being very conservative in their new forecast. They want to make sure they can be hit with multiple other shutdowns and still hit their numbers.
I know several steel companies are shut down for the rest of the year. It's how they plan on putting the little "inefficient" mills out of business. Even hitting the big boys......"Hebei Iron & Steel Co., the listed arm of China’s biggest steelmaker, said three of its units will cut a combined 1.5 million metric tons of output from this month through December because of power restrictions."
CNAM...I just spoke with Investor Relations...
I spoke with Lillian Wong to get a better assessment of what the power shutdown is all about. She explained that China promised the world the would increase their energy efficiency in 2005 and instituted a 5 year plan. We are now approaching the end of that plan and the country has not reached their targeted goal. Up to 18 provinces have now instituted power reduction for the rest of 2010 to meet these goals.
Jiangsu province (one of the first provinces to start to make cuts) targeted the largest users of energy (a lot of steel mills), how long they have been using power in the last 5 years, the amount used, and from that determined what level of blackout a company shall receive. CNAM has been targeted with a 15 day straight shutdown of power. They have been told after that they will be ok.
Why the reduction in earnings estimate of $40M in revenue and $2M in net for just 15 days? Management is very cognitive of the fact that they just reduced estimates in early August in their last earnings report. This latest reduction makes strike two in the eyes of investors and their confidence in management. And so they decided to do the worst case scenario (namely, Jiangsu province comes back for more shutdowns before the end of 2010) and factored that into their estimate already. The company knows that they can't afford a strike three and miss estimates no matter what.
CNAM...I just spoke with Investor Relations...
I spoke with Lillian Wong to get a better assessment of what the power shutdown is all about. She explained that China promised the world the would increase their energy efficiency in 2005 and instituted a 5 year plan. We are now approaching the end of that plan and the country has not reached their targeted goal. Up to 18 provinces have now instituted power reduction for the rest of 2010 to meet these goals.
Jiangsu province (one of the first provinces to start to make cuts) targeted the largest users of energy (a lot of steel mills), how long they have been using power in the last 5 years, the amount used, and from that determined what level of blackout a company shall receive. CNAM has been targeted with a 15 day straight shutdown of power. They have been told after that they will be ok.
Why the reduction in earnings estimate of $40M in revenue and $2M in net for just 15 days? Management is very cognitive of the fact that they just reduced estimates in early August in their last earnings report. This latest reduction makes strike two in the eyes of investors and their confidence in management. And so they decided to do the worst case scenario (namely, Jiangsu province comes back for more shutdowns before the end of 2010) and factored that into their estimate already. The company knows that they can't afford a strike three and miss estimates no matter what.
CNAM...VIKING86...$40M in revenue is approx 90-100K metric tons of scrap processed so it definitely is more than 1 month of operation (even if they were running 100%, which there is no way they are). I'm thinking that management is being smart (hopefully) and seriously "under promising" so they can "over deliver".
The big thing is we don't want it to carry into December (for then it will effect 1rst Q numbers--as that is when delivery would take place). 1rst Q numbers need to be as solid as possible so people can get a strong look at what all of 2011 will bring.
Pluses about 1rst Q 2011---iron ore demand should be decent as many of the mills that have been shut down now (and into 4th Q) should be buying. The recycling should be running at 85%+ per month. Also in early March is the Rodman & Rothman conference in Shanghai. It was the day before they presented there in March 2010 that CNAM released the info on the steel contract they had signed (obviously the timing was planned). The combo of the two is what shot the stock over $10. Anyone attending the conference can easily drive 50 miles to CNAM's plant afterward.
Viking...CNAM...not much discussion of CNAM on Ihub on a positive day like today. I take that as a good sign. Company needs to give a positive update for the stock to break $4 (AND stay above that barrier). Will be interesting to see if there is any follow through tomorrow.
Dave
Nelson..TELT...I think some serious dilution is about to occur. They said in the 10Q that there is a chance for negotiation by the end of August with the Series C pref holders (who happen to all be directors of the company). They are owed $9.5M to make their shares/past dividends/past interest owed go away. Even if they settle for pennies on a share it still means a lot of shares given out. Plus, if they need cash---which they will to survive now that they owe $2.2M to former employees that they are having to pay back---it means selling shares.
The plus is that more of the work for the NY Dept of Ed will be done this quarter. Heck, they may even break even with it all. But that doesn't mean they have the capital to expand their products. And I seriously doubt any bank (in this new environment of lending) is going to loan them anything.
Lastly they are going to have to give out stock options like candy to get their new VP of Marketing (and any new people they bring in to support him in their attempt at a turnaround) to be inspired.
I think the company will survive. I also think share count will be 15M plus (maybe even 20M) by this time next year.
Timhyma..TELT.."did I ever talk with them?"......I bitch at them too much to get any meaningful response anymore :0) I couldn't resist mocking the CEO awhile ago that he went from a millionaire earlier this year to now where the stock price couldn't buy him a pack of bubble gum.
For what it is worth, they have started to get paid for the $7M e-rate contract they received in February. (Last Friday it was reported on the government site that they received their first distribution payment for work performed). At least we know then that they really did receive the $7M + $3M contracts with NY board of Ed---through the erate program---not that management could announce such a thing. They prefer to release pr's about how they are the 353rd largest IT solution provider in the country.
Actually, the only person in management I want to talk to is the new hire, Christopher Doyle. I want to know why he left Panasonic to come to TELT (a $19B company and a guaranteed future to go to a $3M company). A lot of the future (for diversification) is aimed at him and I would love to know what he thinks he can do with his connections in the industry. When at Panasonic (he was Product Manager) they became #1 in the industry market share wise in the U.S. http://www2.panasonic.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/prModelDetail?storeId=11301&catalogId=13251&itemId=411078&modelNo=Content05122010011731491&surfModel=Content05122010011731491
They did change one of their divisions from "ISM management" to a more focused approach of "Alarms and Performance Management"---aimed at protecting your networks--- last week.
As for 2nd Q numbers.....I'm figuring management will hide behind closed doors and just release the info in a 10Q. Am I a buyer at these prices? No way. Management has shown me that they are incompetent until proven otherwise. However......if they ever can diversify and get a more consistent revenue stream, they have cut overhead down so much that they could become extremely profitable.
TELT...small morsel of news...
The CFO was interviewed in following article. Only quote that applies to TELT...
"Is your business seeing signs of an economic recovery?: Our company had a profitable and productive year in 2009, so we didn’t really feel the full effects from the economic downturn last year like most companies had experienced. Recently, we have seen more quote activity, not only in the U.S. but internationally as well, a possible indication that the economy may be turning around."
http://www.review.net/special-sections/detail/2010-40-under-40/#top
EDAC...new web presentation....revenues and backlog are ramping up for the company. Hasn't quite hit the bottom line yet. They just started doing conference calls last Q and are starting to push to get the company noticed. I figure they are excited by their future growth ability and want to be rewarded for it. Backlog is $150M+ for $24M market cap.
Down at $5 today. They won't report next qtr earnings till end of July.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/EDAC-Technologies-Posts-prnews-704008449.html?x=0&.v=1
TELT...Besides hiring a VP of Marketing recently, they are also looking to hire a Program Manager: (stealing part of this from yahoo poster.)
Recently posted.....http://www.teltronics.com/Careers_listings.asp?cat=accounting (It's also advertised in other online job search engines).
Main job function is:
"• Promotes the sale of Teltronics manufacturing services.
• Provide program management services for the Electronic Manufacturing business unit."
Looks like they want to expand their Contract Manufacturing services division and improve their 20-20 production line??
Posted 6/17: Cost Accountant:
http://www.teltronics.com/Careers_listings.asp?cat=accounting (also advertised in other job search engines)
Main job function is:
......Making sure they don't waste money! (which they used to be good at).
Back in April they also hired a Technical Writer.
They did some serious cost cutting to overhead in 2008 to bring Administrative costs down. Not sure why they are all of a sudden expanding upward again. Would be curious if they are hiring more people to actually manufacturer their equipment. After the disappointing revenue total in 1rst Q (which, I will give them a small amount of excuse for, corresponded to when they moved their manufacturing over to their new facilities) I'm surprised that they are adding to personnel overhead.
I will try and talk with them next week.
10 bagger....TELT...I think if you are patient enough then others who are frustrated will sell to you at the price you want!
I haven't been buying anymore myself. I think there is potential here (especially at this price) but have lost faith a bit in management's ability to increase sales. I want to see if they are able to diversify sales with their "50+ partners pushing Cerato for Schools" to the education market and see the new products being developed.
They have shown that if sales can be increased consistently then the company FINALLY has the ability to make serious profit. The key is knowing if management wants to become multi-millionaires or just content collecting their salary.
I do think the last hire was good. Panasonic has a very strong business telephone division.
Dave
Timhyma..TELT..I was googling the new guy they are hiring. Came across a posting that was just put on Yahoo message board. (I'm just cutting and pasting here for the most part)....
Seems like a good person for TELT to hire. The reason I say this is here is the job description that Panasonic is putting out to find their new Product Manager for Business Telephone Systems...(June 2010)
"Mange product development roadmap for assigned categories in the Business Communications Product Group. Define and develop market requirements for product development. Manage product introduction and product support materials. Understand and implement strategy to enhance market position and competitive product position."
ALSO....Panasonic was recently named #1 in Small Business Phone Systems for 2009....http://www2.panasonic.com/webapp/wcs/sto...
I'm sure Christopher Doyle has some excellent contacts for business. It'll be interesting to see some of the new products TELT is going to bring out and the direction he will help them go with them.
TELT...I just saw this ...a poster was grumping in the comment section of TELT's blog http://www.teltronicsblog.com/ about the lack of pr on the new products TELT has mentioned before in their twitters (they even spent money last Q on "$51K increase in professional services and outside consulting used to assist in getting products tested and ready for market")
I was actually surprised that management responded---they aren't necessarily very good at that. management's response: As Teltronics gets closer to release of new products, information will be supplied to all shareholders via an official press release.
It'd be nice for management to give an indication of how they are trying to increase sales away from the education market (especially NY Dept of Educ.) From the last 10Q "an increase in marketing expenses of $95K incurred to facilitate an increase in future sales and also diversify its customer base".
Dave
Wade..TELT..If the company had good news to put out (this last pr is their annual "fluff" statement about the VAR list), there could be a quick rebound upward.
When the stock was $1.40, the number of shares trading per day was around 30K (or $42K per day in total market). The highest day had around $500K total market traded. Right now it's averaging probably $5K per day in total market value traded (with it in the 33 cent range). There are a LOT of shares that were bought above $1.40 (2 million plus). These people would average down in a heartbeat if they were more confident in the future.
Of course, that is all dependent on "good news". Management seems to not like to elaborate on real business developments.
Dave
Wade..TELT..I think people often sell in a stock like this because of the worry that nobody is buying (even to average down).
TELT signed up their 50 strategic partners to do their Cerato for Schools, spent $90K extra for advertising last quarter, another $40K to consultants to test/give opinion on new product SOOOO hopefully something good comes out of it all. (unfortunately education sales are primarily second and third quarter revenue).
When nobody is buying though it pretty much means nobody really trusts the company/management anymore. And it's not like management is very communicative.
Dave
EDAC..PW1000G Geared Turbofan engine..Game changer?
Pratt & Whitney's engine:
http://www.hartfordbusiness.com/news12968.html
"the market is pegged at about $90 billion over the next 10 years"
"Parts also come from outside vendors, including Edac Technologies in Farmington."
Will be certified in 2012 so patience is required.
Combine it with their work on the Genx Engine for the 787 and 747-8, and the F135 for the F-35 fighter jet and the future looks good.
TELT...the good/bad/ugly.....
Good: In a listing of "inventory", Finished Goods was at $2.06M worth of product. That's the highest it's been in 5 quarters (in comparison, after 2nd Q numbers last year (before the HUGE 3rd Q), it was $1.55M. After 3rd Q and 4th Q numbers (after the last two weak quarters), it was $970M and $1.1M
My conclusion from this small tidbit is that some portion of that $10M order they got from NY ED in February will be delivered in 2nd Q.
From my previous post, it looks like TELT is looking to acquire Smartcall UK. To do this will mean they need to get refinanced/raise capital. It will be interesting to see how that happens.
There is some complaint from 4 previous employees. Not sure what it's about and company wasn't even sure it was going to be an ongoing concern. Something to watch.
In April they did the GE/UTX Security trade in Las Vegas. This week they are doing the big NY Contractors show. They should definitely get business from this show.
$1.40 sure looks good in the rear view mirror :0)
TELT..acquisition being pursued...from the recent 10Q posted today, on attached Exhibit 10 at the bottom concerning the changes to their credit facility, the company states
3. "SMARTCALL ACQUISITION. Borrower has informed Agent that Teltronics UK is currently in negotiations to acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of SmartCall (the “Acquisition”).
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=7263722-52514-64375&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=6756&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fcik%253d97052
Info on Smartcall UK: http://www.smartcall.com/
http://www.alibaba.com/member/smartcalluk.html
mandjb...EDAC...up 30% from your post. Seems buyers (and insiders) are more interested in the future growth than the bottom dollar for right now. Making parts for the GenX engine (787 and 747-8), F135 engine (F-35 fighter) and PW1000 engine (P&W engine that is going to be used on Bombardier CSeries, Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) airliners, and Irkut MS-21.)
These are the three largest engine programs of the next 10 years and EDAC has their thumb in the pie on each one of them to some extent.
I agree though that management needs to convert increasing revenue into profits. The nice thing is that the stream of revenue in the future is pretty darn solid ($140+M backlog for a $25M company and the backlog is growing faster than they are using it up).
Was nice to see the new director buying in the mid to high $4's recently.
Dave
EDAC...this is a first....they are going to do a conference call for their earnings! With the Boeing 787 and (to a lesser extent) F-35 programs progressing, maybe they are finally starting to dig into their $135M+ backlog. I know they said after 4th Q numbers that 1rst Q numbers would be slightly sequential growth. They only netted 2 cents/quarter but there were many charges that could be backed out of that.
I'm predicting they do around $17M and 9 cents/share. Nothing exciting, but the aerospace industry is drawing in large investors again looking to the future. EDAC (and SIF for those that own that) may start to get another look. The last "upswing" (before the crash and the 787's year long delay), EDAC was over $11.
It broke $4 today.
Dave
TELT...the company has a booth at the GE Strategic Partner Trade show this week (with their partner, React Systems, that they teamed up with last Fall. React Systems is in the mass notification business). TELT's Cerato platform is integrated into the GE Security Fireworks package and StarPlus package.
"Utilizing Teltronics' growing Strategic Partner base will be an important factor affecting our revenue moving forward," declares Steve Mogul, Vice President of Sales, REACT Systems.
http://www.reactsystemsinc.com/
http://www.teltronics.com/PR_111609.asp
This trade show and the New York State Purchasing Forum Contractor Trade show on May 19-20th will be important to them. It'll be interesting to see if their new strategic partnerships pay off.
I figure they will report 1rst Q numbers around the second week of May (around the 11th).
Wade...TELT...It will be interesting to say the least what 1rst Q numbers bring in May.
Their revenue is made up of "product sold" and "maintenance contracts/service provided".
In 2009 they did $2.7M per Q for maintenance/services (consistently from quarter to quarter). This is actually pretty consistent through the years too (in 2008 they did $2.85M/quarter on average, 2007 they did $2.9M/quarter on average).
So we can count on this revenue pretty much for certain.
The key is "product sold" revenue per quarter. Historical numbers of product sold/quarter:
3rd Q 2008: $5.1M
4th Q 2009: 5.63M
1rst Q 2009: $7M
2nd Q 2009: $9M
3rd Q 2009: $11M
4th Q 2009: $4.9M
A lot of these orders in 2009 were high-margin Cerato 20/20 product which allowed them to get 40% gross margins.
In Feb 2010 they got $10.6M in new orders from NY Dept. of Education. I would hope they got additional orders from other sources (that we don't know about).
Again, maintenance/service revenue is pretty consistent. What we learned from 4th Q is that $4.9M in product sold gives about a $150K loss after dividends. So anything they do above, say, $5.2M/quarter (in product sold) should put them in the black.
Definitely will be interesting to see what they post for 1rst Q 2010. They did $9.6M in revenue in 1rst Q 2009 with 36% gross profit margin. For the other 3 Q's in 2009 they did $33.5M with 42.2% gross profit margin (their change in focus on Cerato products paid off).
BIG FAT GUESS/EXTRAPOLATION: If they match the $9.6M from 1rst Q 2009, but with the profit margin of the other three quarters (and, yes, this did include 4th Q which had a high margin, just reduced sales), then TELT is on target to net $856K or around 9 cents/share fully diluted.
ORRRR.....they could disappoint again!
Dave