Wade...TELT...It will be interesting to say the least what 1rst Q numbers bring in May.
Their revenue is made up of "product sold" and "maintenance contracts/service provided".
In 2009 they did $2.7M per Q for maintenance/services (consistently from quarter to quarter). This is actually pretty consistent through the years too (in 2008 they did $2.85M/quarter on average, 2007 they did $2.9M/quarter on average).
So we can count on this revenue pretty much for certain.
The key is "product sold" revenue per quarter. Historical numbers of product sold/quarter:
3rd Q 2008: $5.1M
4th Q 2009: 5.63M
1rst Q 2009: $7M
2nd Q 2009: $9M
3rd Q 2009: $11M
4th Q 2009: $4.9M
A lot of these orders in 2009 were high-margin Cerato 20/20 product which allowed them to get 40% gross margins.
In Feb 2010 they got $10.6M in new orders from NY Dept. of Education. I would hope they got additional orders from other sources (that we don't know about).
Again, maintenance/service revenue is pretty consistent. What we learned from 4th Q is that $4.9M in product sold gives about a $150K loss after dividends. So anything they do above, say, $5.2M/quarter (in product sold) should put them in the black.
Definitely will be interesting to see what they post for 1rst Q 2010. They did $9.6M in revenue in 1rst Q 2009 with 36% gross profit margin. For the other 3 Q's in 2009 they did $33.5M with 42.2% gross profit margin (their change in focus on Cerato products paid off).
BIG FAT GUESS/EXTRAPOLATION: If they match the $9.6M from 1rst Q 2009, but with the profit margin of the other three quarters (and, yes, this did include 4th Q which had a high margin, just reduced sales), then TELT is on target to net $856K or around 9 cents/share fully diluted.
ORRRR.....they could disappoint again!
Dave
