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The home page is updated for trading tomorrow. There was surprisingly few on the short term scan, but then Friday's market was weak internally.
I'll lay out another short term trade simulation later today.
Sam
Some market thoughts from this last weeks Journal commentary:
The third alternative? You read speculation that the market is going to continue down to unthinkable levels, or that we are close to a bottom and the edge of another bull market. But what about a third alternative? One where we don't, or only marginally, break the September lows, but then start back up without breaking this years high? Imagine, rather than an over valued bull or even a fairly valued bear, a market that trades in a narrow range, for months or years. Teasing both the bulls and the bears in an ever rotating evolution of different stocks, moving from under valued and back in favor, to over valued and sold off, just as the last under valued group builds interest once again.
A market where the only people that know what CNBC's programming is, are those last surviving traders and mutual fund managers trading 401K plans, but the general public is beyond even being worried about the market, they are totally uninterested. Where the last person at the water cooler that mentioned the "stock market" felt ridiculed for bringing it up, as though he didn't know it was just a big scam, and the only way to have a chance is to stay in mutual funds and let the big boys play their game. And even that incident was months ago and faded in most peoples minds.
The economy will rise for months in strength then slump back cooling off as interest rates strangle a minor spike in inflation, only to be sparked back to life by some little blimp on the economic landscape. And unseen by most, the price to earnings of all companies will fall to single digits during those occasions that market has an un-news worthy dip.
And maybe after the majority of the public can't identify what the NASDAQ is, there will be a product, there will be a spark, there will be volume, and there will be a spike that will build a foundation of a great bull market....some years down the road.
Sam
Well the close today took some of the shine off, but still a good day.
Sam
Breakouts are mixed today, ABF, CNI, ARG, FII, CNF, INTU (doing the best), SIE and WTSLA are the only breakouts I bought, and both stopped....so it goes...
In the short termers, I bought CHS 36.26. CYMI doing great too.
Sam
Back on the job. The rise in the market improved the risk and there was a significant number of both short term and breakout potentials. http://www.savvy-trader.com
I've updated the site, OII was the only new short term stock I added to the watchlist for Thursday. We'll be back to town around noon MT.
Sam
We are out of town so I'll be late updating tonight.
Sam
Briefing: 08:10 ET N INCO Limited added to Merrill's Focus One list (21.86) ....one of the last few left on the watchlist this week.
Sam
The site is updated for Wednesday, looks bad for tomorrow from here.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
No short term stocks showed up on the screening, there was a few breakout potentials, I'll have them loaded on the site later this evening.
Sam
Off the main short term list, 6 hit stops and 1 removed cause it rose too high off support. Back to the drawing board <g.
Sam
Tough day? Whew, a lite mode day. Not even the three breakouts that alerted did much today. Maybe we are coming to an end to this, but it is hard to see much sign.
Sam
Despite the rise in the DOW and NASDAQ, the general market didn't improve much. I removed two off the home page that stopped out replaced them with RYAN and WBSN. But remain cautious.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
The breakouts definitely didn't do as well as the market indices today, I only made one trade myself and that was DRI, a short term.
Sam
I've posted a new set of potential breakouts and the estimate of market risk, but there was really nothing to add to the short term stocks. Check the earnings on the breakout list since a few are scheduled to post on Tuesday.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Nice I posted the results yesterday I thought I'd update them with the full weeks results of the stock picks we had on our full watchlist, and their percentage return at the close as of Friday. To view the an archived copy of Monday's commentary and watchlist for details on prices and stops see: http://www.savvy-trader.com/june_17.htm
AEM +8.72%
APOL +6.58%
BRO +6.04%
CNMD -0.71%
DLX -2.36% at recommended stop price
INGR +0.67%
JEC -1.55% still open
LOW -3.89% at recommended stop price
MHK +1.35%
SHLM +4.24%
This is an average gain per position of +1.91 in five days while the NYSE had a loss of 1.09%, and the NASDAQ has dropped 4.24% from Friday's close to today's close.
Again, while we've remained cautious about the markets direction, which keeps us from being fully invested long, there are long plays to be made.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
The breakouts that made potential day trades long today included ABK, COCO, ITT, PGR, TOL and WOR. Right now with 45 minutes to the close only PGR is down slightly. ITT just alerted and it is settling back a bit.
Sam
I've updated the site for tomorrow and replaced the gold stock (AEM) with Ryder (R). Still cautious. http://www.savvy-trader.com
Sam
But my dear, surely you didn't mean me?
Stock pickers have NOT outperformed the markets in the last 2 years (unless they were shorters) and are not likely to do so here either.
I posted the results of my picks from Monday through today:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=391358
I haven't been short very much at all this year. Put there are longs that can be balanced against shorts.
I could use a vacation too <g
Sam
Below are the stock picks we had on our full watchlist and the percentage return at the close as of today, Thursday. To view the an archived copy of Monday's commentary and watchlist for details on prices and stops: http://www.savvy-trader.com/june_17.htm
AEM +5.97%
APOL +4.11%
BRO +5.16%
CNMD -0.88%
DLX -2.36% at recommended stop price
INGR -1.73% still open
JEC +1.98%
LOW -3.89% at recommended stop price
MHK +4.03%
SHLM +1.54%
This is an average gain per position of +1.40 in four days while the NYSE has made a 0.38% gain and the NASDAQ has dropped 2.6% from Friday's close to today's close.
I am cautious about the market as you can see in the commentary of that day, and I do believe this is a stock pickers market.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
PVT and MCO were the only two breakout stocks that did much. EAT also alerted but didn't go anywhere. Out of out full 12 short-term stocks 8 were up today. Still it was a day to lay low....
Sam
Only, two breakouts this morning. PTV an MCO.
Sam
Well, it looks like the open won't be the kind where you can get a bounce now. May just open low and drift down so bounces wouldn't be playable. We'll see.
Sam
Looks like a rough open, and with the economic data this morning it's getting weaker. Be careful.
Sam
If we have a rough open tomorrow and you are inclined to day trade, look for quick bottoms in EBAY, KLAC or MXIM soon after the open.
Otherwise, none of the stocks on the home page stopped out today. I removed AN since it has climbed to much above support. I added FCX and SAH. Interestingly three out of 12 on our main list are mining stocks.
The breakouts have been doing well, just remember to set an alert 20 cents above today's high for an alert tomorrow. I have to admit this group of 6 breakout potentials doesn't look as good as today's did when they screened out.
Sam
One of my New Years predictions was that the biotechs would have a strong 2nd half, but that half isn't far away and the bad news keeps coming. GENZ is another falling leaf that makes it hard for the whole group to regain a footing.
Sam
You couldn't tell it was a down day by our breakout alerts, but even in a stock pickers market the market risk still plays a part.
Sam
The short term stocks mentioned here the last few day's have all done pretty well, AEM, ANT, DCO, INVN, LNY, JEC...We have a position in INVN.
Sam
Both breakouts and short termers continue to do well. HOV was the most recent breakout, other remain close to high of day.
Sam
Breakouts this morning include TRI, HMA, GTK, CTX....one brought up in the room early today was NCEN and it has flown. As long as you aren't focusing on the techs the market isn't doing bad.
Sam
Despite having the market risk going back up to high for tomorrow, I added a couple more stocks to the short-term watchlist. There should be plenty to watch between those and the breakouts. http://www.savvy-trader.com
Sam
If someone sent me a message in the last 1/2 hour I didn't get it, I just have something in my mailbox that I can't read...
Thanks,
Sam
Well that ends the trading part of my day, it was a good day for us, but I don't know if the market has the foundation for a continued move. I alerted AEM in the room a couple times, but really I'm not sure that it going up is a good sign for everything else I have <g.
Sam
In the short term trades...JEC is at support here $37.45 and worth a look.
Sam
SIE just brokeout, looks good here.
Sam
Breakout alerts this morning included HRS, HSIC and ERTS...so far.
SAm
I kept AEM (a gold stock), on the watchlist. It might make an alternative if the market turns weak tomorrow. There a a lot of breakout potentials, it is best to load them into your watchlist, set an alert about 20 cents above today's high, then you can delete it (as long as you still get alerts (works in qcharts)), than you don't have to watch such a long list. Otherwise, be careful.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Nice close today, there was plenty to trade today but it will take a bit more to see if we are out of this current slump.
Sam
NAZ having a little trouble with 1550, a break above should extend today's rally a bit more.
Sam
The breakout rocket today was EBAY on my screen. Looks good so far today, hopefully we can hold off the selling this afternoon.
Sam