Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Might hurt a little today but in 3 months will be well over $20. Premarket volume today in about nothin.
My guess is they saw lumber skyrocketing and decided to sit on 50 mil bf and ship in Q2 rather than Q1. So they took the futures loss to make 10x that in Q2 by shipping at $1250 rather than $780.
2021 off to a great start.
Great Q1 report.
But the stock, no worries!
Will the hedge funds that own 2mil shares take the opportunity of the Q1 earnings release to again jack this up? What would be sweeter than making $8million on the way down and another $8 - $12 million on the way up! Sort of tough to resist the temptation. Lets hope they do!
OT: Twister, I meant to ask you this over on the RFP board but not sure you read anything there since you sold. Other than VTSI, into which stocks have you parked your money?
On Topic: VTSI - Is it possible that Ferris-n-family were the 3rd buyer of 1 million shares in the direct offering? Perhaps not directly but indirectly via some other vehicle?
I have added a ton of sub$5 shares. It is a gift from heaven.
I agree with you.
Every $25 of lumber price improvement results in 48mil of higher operating profit. Using Q4 as a baseline, these means that absolute worse case RFP will have ebitda $350mil higher than Q4. Add another worse case assumption and that adds Eps of at least $2 to the Q4 55cents. I don’t see how Eps could be less than $2.50. No freakin way. Analyst consensus is $1.67.
But even if RFP would somehow miss, no one is gonna sell because Q2 will be so much higher than Q1 due to both lumber and pulp. The numbers are not fathomable to analysts.
So I also see this as a slam dunk for a massive move higher over the next 2 to 3 weeks.
Who was the 3rd buyer of 1million shares?
Why hasn’t there been a 3rd Sched 13?
In the interview Ferris said there were 3 buyers who each bought 1million shares.
Who was the 3rd buyer of 1million shares?
Why hasn’t there been a 3rd Sched 13?
In the interview Ferris said there were 3 buyers who each bought 1million shares.
I agree with you ARZ. He came off as both evasive and smug. That’s hard to do.
But there was one really interesting thing he said that had not been previously disclosed. He said the direct offering was bought by only 3 buyers! Each bought 1mil shares. SO WHY HAS THERE ONLY BEEN 2 Schedule 13G filings? Who is the 3rd buyer? Why hasnt that buyer filed with the SEC?
OT: Hi Ardly, Given your background, I'm curious if you read any books by authors like John Sandford, Lee Child, CJ Box, etc.? I probably like John Sandford the best and I just finished his latest one, Ocean Prey. The main character Lucas Davenport is a US Marshall. This book was one of his better ones. The reason I ask, is that every time I read one of these books I think of you and imagine some of the crazy things you likely experienced. But then I wonder if these sorts of books are only entertaining for people like me who have no clue about the day to day life of those in law enforcement.
A great deal for you as the buyer! Congrats. What sort of shareholder would sell covered calls on this sort of stock for about zero premium and it is so far in the future? Stupid move for the seller.
Yes, I had watched that earlier today. Someone on yahoo finance mentioned it. Interesting, I hope he is right.
I think the point you were making was a good one. I wouldn’t mind seeing lumber trade in a $900 to $1200 range for the next couple years.
That is a huge plus. It makes it much easier to trade without any emotion since none of us are locked in. It sure makes me happier. The prior low volume was also an impediment to institutions that wanted to buy. So maybe that is where some of the current support is coming from.
No worries yet. On a typical new house, these high lumber prices add $24,000 to the price tag. That equates to only an extra $100/month on a 30 year mortgage. Not insignificant, but not terrible either.
If you are associated with that law firm you should be embarrassed. Some lawyers are great and provide valuable services but in my opinion those who go after companies in this manner and try to solicit clients in this manner should not be allowed to practice law.
But makes no difference to me. I love the stock and the current macro environment. It is worth much more than current value and I continue buying shares.
Now I know where the late day VTSI buying came from! You sold some RFP and bought some VTSI.
Just kidding but a reasonable thing to do!
Interest rates. Yesterday I closed on an 18 unit apartment building for $2mil. I borrowed $1.5mil and the bank locked my rate at 3.75% for the next 5 years! And this is a commercial loan which is typically 1% higher than a residential mortgage loan. In 10+ years of buying multi family and commercial buildings it is the lowest rate I have ever gotten. My point is.....the banks sure don’t see higher rates any time soon.
I am still in and will hold for at least another 6 months and perhaps much longer.
I don’t know. My guess is the sellers are worried that the chip shortage will impact auto production and therefore hurt SUP. If you go back and read the transcript from the last quarterly report the CEO gave very detailed financial guidance. The quarter ended 2+ weeks ago. The CEO knows the result and hasn’t warned. I suspect they did fine. I also think that no matter what they report, the stock will rise. This CEO is great and the company is crazy undervalue. Market cap of $125mil on $1.4billion in sales with a minimal debt load that is falling!
This is one stock I do not worry about. But it does trade flaky with big daily moves so fun to trade along the way..
It seems like it would be difficult to freak out while sleeping? I’m getting old so I sleep like crap anyway. I rest easy with a smile when I think of my wood products stocks...Rfp, Wfstf, cfxtf. They will all rise significantly from here because of revenue and earnings. Perhaps the broader markets are now starting to notice?
Bought a ton of shares today! Crazy over-reaction.
Sorry to keep saying it but the low enterprise value right now for VirTra is stunning.
It is only $27million!!!!!
The Wall Street brainiacs are giving VirTra zero credit for their balance sheet.
OR they assume Ferris will squander the money by buying something stupid.
Sunday nights interview shoul provide some answers.
I added more today in the 5.20s.
If it does go sub5 then the only 4 stocks I would own are RFP, SUP, UVE, VTSI. I would sell all my others and move more money into SUP.
I love WFSTF and WFSTFU would be even better but I don’t understand your JP Morgan mention.
I do not believe that any of the parties you mentioned (Roth, VirTra, lake Street, Maxim) did anything illegal. In fact I am rather certain they did not. I am sure there are NDAs and Confidentiality agreements in abundance.
I am certain someone or someones did do something illegal on March 30th. Someone traded with the knowledge that the direct offering was going to be announced that night. Perhaps they knew before the 30th but maybe not. Perhaps they found out during the day on the 30th. Maybe that is why the stock started trading down, down , down.
All I care about now is whether I like the stock going forward. I do. It is very undervalued now based on EV. I like that there is institutional support. I like the daily volume. I like that Ferris did the offering at 6 rather than 4. In hindsight, 6 was pretty impressive. The bottom line for me is it was a brilliant move IF Ferris does something smart with the money to accelerate sales and Eps.
Remarkable! Enterprise Value of $27.5million.
The market seems to believe Ferris will make poor decisions with the cash.
I guess it is justified given his track record and inability to invest to accelerate growth.
We have a master chef at the helm capable of turning lemonade into lemons.
I don't want to argue with you as it makes no difference at this point.
I will mention a couple things though. GME is a different situation but for a few months prior to the price explosion, there were more shares shorted than existed. In your world you seem to think that cannot happen. The reality is it happens all the time. It is called naked shorting and it still happens every single day. The naked shorters do so because they either believe they will never have to cover or know they can cover at a lower price.
Even when a brokerage like Fidelity says there are no shares available to short, if you are a licensed broker or have access to your own customers accounts you can short using their positions. You can even short multiples of positions by using leverage.
Another way to think of it is this way. What if at noon on March 30th all accounts everywhere could have been frozen and then all the VTSI shares added up. Do you think the sum would be 7.75million? I promise you the total would have been 20million or 30million. Is that physically possible? In your world the answer is no because only 7.75million shares exist. In my world I believe this sort of crap happens all the time.
You and I are small potatoes and we follow the law and SEC rules. Not everyone does.
Unless it gets sued out of existence ala Remington.
I've explained it 3 different times on this message board and will not do it again. This sort of thing happens all the time with secondary offerings. It would have even been magnitudes worse had there been any warrants involved.
The next short report will still be interesting though. Greed kills in both directions so even though I would guess the manipulative pros have covered by now I will bet the April 15 short interest number will still be a big one. Certainly highest ever for VTSI.
So I am curious hweb2, what do you think happened on March 30th? Remember 159million shares traded and total outstanding shares was 7.75million. Total tradable float was likely less than 5million shares.
Short interest only 78,007 shares as of end of March 31st. Like I said, the perfect crime. Settlement for the 3 or 4mil shorted on March 30th was April 2nd. And they will mostly be all covered by next reporting day of April 15.
The good thing is if they can move it around whenever they want, then at some point they take it UP......BIG!
Ferris on at 9pm eastern time this Sunday evening at storytrading dot com.
I mostly agree with you.
I sorta view it as a new normal.
Daunte Wright gunned down. Sad day fir all involved.
True....but I would rather own as many shares as possible going into April 29th. And don’t forget the annual meeting in later May.
Maybe the CEO makes a stupid acquisition?
Maybe they buy a company in the hopes of future profitability?
Maybe they buy a corporate Tesla car for each employee?
Maybe the cash sits on the balance sheet for 2 years?
Maybe they move corporate office to downtown Seattle?
All sorts of dumb things could happen.
I think it would be sweet to announce a $20mil share buyback!
Another thing, just look at the trading today. Volume of almost 600,000 shares and the price is flat to down a bit. That cannot happen unless we have some very active shorts.
That is all ok by me whether true or not.
It will rise based on EPS just as it fell based on EPS.
I am fine waiting 2 years for $30 but I think it gets there far sooner.
Rate increases and a little inflation will make EPS go up a lot.
Not only is May lumber over 1100 but July is over 1000 and Sept is about 940 and on and on. Months further out are rising faster than May!
Q2 for RFP will be incredible.
Dare I say Eps of $6+ for 2021?
I bought a lot of shares this week.
Also bought more Wfstf and conifex, too.
I did call Fidelity before my last post. They said I could short as many as I wanted to, no problem.
Wait until you see the numbers for April 15th when available on about the 24th.
It isn’t going to be several million but will be 1million or more.