Sunday, April 25, 2021 6:20:59 AM
Every $25 of lumber price improvement results in 48mil of higher operating profit. Using Q4 as a baseline, these means that absolute worse case RFP will have ebitda $350mil higher than Q4. Add another worse case assumption and that adds Eps of at least $2 to the Q4 55cents. I don’t see how Eps could be less than $2.50. No freakin way. Analyst consensus is $1.67.
But even if RFP would somehow miss, no one is gonna sell because Q2 will be so much higher than Q1 due to both lumber and pulp. The numbers are not fathomable to analysts.
So I also see this as a slam dunk for a massive move higher over the next 2 to 3 weeks.
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