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It wouldn't surprise me. Dr. Missling is a bit slimy that way. Remember last year when he killed all the momentum by issuing a PR going into the July 4th holiday about the shelf registration?
Price needs to hold $4.17 or it is a giant cliff for the look out below crowd.
The same person who told you the PDD readout is coming next week.
PDD readout isn't coming next week.
C'mon, $20 billion? Really?
We're going to be insanely lucky to get $3 billion. $30 / share fully diluted would be exceptional.
I don't have a link, I thought I read that is what they were doing with precision medicine.
I think we have about a 60% chance of approval. It's been creeping up over the years. I think in 2017 I had this pegged at around a 30% chance but the data we've seen has been positive since then. It's still a big risk, the share price would be a lot more than $4.35 if it were a sure thing, but I think the precision medicine targeting bumps the odds up slightly compared to if AVXL were just testing random people without using biomarkers.
Ha, thanks McMagyar. Not sure it'll help but willing to try anything. Hope all has been well with you over the last several months, glad to see you are still holding down the fort here on this message board.
haha I don't post much anymore, my age and health aren't conducive to the stress of this type of investment. but I still enjoy checking in from time to time and I'm glad to see that everything is more or less the same. hopefully everyone here is staying safe during this pandemic. 2021 should be an exciting year for avxl with the Alzheimer's data coming to light.
I agree. I think the odds are better than average for positive results. I was just saying that you can't make the argument that the stock price is dropping due to a lack of sellers. That is flat-out illogical unless there is a lack of buying interest to go along with it.
I'm still holding all my core shares in a shoebox in the closet. I'll sell them to the hedge funds in two years.
Nope, stocks don’t trade like that. When demand for shares is greater than supply the price goes up.
Everyone is getting worked up over P2 data. It’s exciting for people on this message board but the general investment community couldn’t care less. That may change when P3 data is reported that can lead to FDA approval.
You're missing the fact that there is no guarantee any of that data will be positive. A lot of people who have held this stock for many years are finally green in their accounts, especially those who averaged down or got in recently who are now up a substantial amount.
So yes, the risk is certainly there that someone sells at $5 and it spikes to $12 the next day. The same risk is that someone doesn't sell at $5 and it drops back to $2 on poor data readings.
Not every investor is glass half-full, especially when they're looking to preserve 100% gains.
Let's see if it can hold $4.20. That's the support area I am concerned that if it breaks, we enter another free-fall back into the low to mid 3's.
I have a GTC stink bid in at $3.8
I don't know. Maybe?
No, it doesn't. It means that Joey Parsi has an ego and doesn't want to be the CEO of a (sub)penny stock, because the share price is a reflection of his incompetence.
There is that $3.80 magnet again.
Hmmm...
Tom what are your thoughts on today's price movement? And market in general as it relates to biotech like AVXL?
Bounced right off the $3.80 support I called. Those who were able to buy there should be in good shape no matter what barring unexpected bad news for Rett or Alzheimers trials. Even if it dips below, $3.80 should continue to act as a magnet for both support and resistance for the time being. It bounced off that level pretty nicely but I wouldn't be shocked to see it touch it again. If it falls through and can't get back above, there's not much in the way of the high $2s or low $3s and that is where the real risk/reward level tilts significantly in favor of the buyer.
All IMO.
Love the trade!
It isn't Coronavirus. The virus is the excuse people are using to leave the market, because most intelligent investors knew that stocks across the board were overvalued but nobody wants to be the first to leave a fun party.
It's like if you get divorced, the most recent fight with your spouse isn't the reason for the divorce. There were lots of underlying factors that had been building up for a long time before it got to that point. Same thing with the stock market.
There's the $3.80 touchpoint. Needs to hold this level or close to it.
Rett maybe. PDD no.
Thanks Tom. I always try to call it like I see it, the good and the bad. I hate seeing the price drop too because I feel it when I look at my portfolio value, but I know that in the long run the consolidation was necessary.
The way I see it, I'd rather be at $3.80 but have a lot of shares exchange from old, weak hands to new, strong ones -- people who are in at $3.80 are more inclined to hold than people who are looking to protect profits after 4 years of being in the red -- than to be at $6 with a wobbly foundation of shareholders. When a price becomes high enough it'll turn even the most conservative investor into a day trader temporarily.
Let's see if the market can stabilize above $4. I think it might. I had a feeling the price would drop but I didn't foresee Coronavirus being the reason. Fortunately this is the sort of news event that will be quickly forgotten once everyone has time to process the severity of the situation.
Established ones usually do well. Ones that need money often go out of business or sell for pennies on the dollar because credit becomes too expensive if not impossible, and recessions are a terrible time do to an offering.
Insurance companies are also less likely to approve experimental drugs when economic times are tight and people stop paying their premiums, are laid off and lose work insurance, etc.
However, you are correct that if a start-up biotech has a breakthrough product that gets FDA approval, the stock will find its intrinsic value regardless of how the overall economy is performing.
Stock price is inching back to the target area I predicted a few weeks ago, around $3.80 - $4.00.
$3.80 is a crucial level of support. Staying above $4 would be even better but even if this dips below $3.80, the price doesn't reflect the probability of success. It only reflects the perception of that probability.
I would imagine that if anyone wanted to short Anavex they'd be doing it now, so it's the waiting game until the next bit of news that confirms the forward progress.
Those $10 October options look tempting. Not sure what the premiums are going for today but it seems worth a gamble if you think confirming Rett data will be revealed by then.
Why now? Because a lot of people I think believe and hope Anavex will hit it big with approval, but they aren't prepared to lose everything if it doesn't.
The person who bought 1000 shares at $10/share and then averaged down and now has 4000 shares at a $5 average has 2x more than his originally intended investment, and for a lot of people that is too much exposure for an outcome that is by no means guaranteed. So, this investor may decide that now is the appropriate time to sell 2000 shares at $5.
I think what we are seeing today, however, is more shares being added to the float via LPC. Whenever I base calculations on potential value, I always use the fully diluted 100M O/S share count because I think its only a matter of time until all available shares are issued. This is why I was against the preferred shares -- yes, they can be used as a poison pill to prevent a hostile takeover but there are other mechanisms to accomplish that as well. Blank preferred shares are also used to circumvent the O/S authorized total in the corporate bylaws and I believe this was Missling's intention when he pressed the issue a few years back.
All fair points. It's hard to say how this will play out. I would feel better if it would consolidate a bit. Maybe not at $4 but any sort of pull back and holding a price level significantly higher than the 50 or 200 MA would be fine by me.
At the end of the day this is still a binary outcome. Either the drug works and we all make money or it doesn't and we lose everything. The BPs can afford a drug failure because the $10B or so it shaves off the market cap is a temporary setback, but they have other revenue-generating drugs to keep the business alive. Anavex doesn't have that luxury. Shorts know this and that is why they will pile on at the first point of selling pressure.
I do agree with you that leaks are common and strange price movements like this often precede actual news releases.
My thesis rests on the principle that a LOT of AVXL investors who have been in the red for many years are now green, or very close to it, and are going to take an opportunity to sell for a profit with excess shares and ride the rest for free. How many here feel a bit "overexposed" simply from buying too high initially and then averaging down? It is logical to not want to risk so much in what is still a speculative outcome, if you can now sell those excess shares and ride the original amount for free or close to it.
Two weeks ago I think $4 would have been a natural consolidation point. I am less inclined to say that now, although nothing would surprise me. Anavex is as unique a stock I've ever seen in my 30+ years following the market. It has a rabid "fan base" for better or worse that holds a considerable number of shares and a few institutions that hold a large number of shares.
If/when other funds want to buy more shares or take a position, they have two options: 1) Either buy the shares that LPC dumps into the market, or 2) Buy shares from people like you and me.
A lot of the current spike is FOMO and traders -- they view AVXL as a momentum play and will keep buying until the party starts to die down. Once that happens the shorts will come back and do their thing, which is a healthy cycle. My target for $4 or so is mostly from the longer-term TA. If you look at the year chart you'll see it knocked around $3.80-$4 a few times before finally breaking through. Now that becomes support and in my experience stocks like to test the previous levels of resistance before moving higher.
Of course, if news comes out that is positive everything changes. Its possible that news is starting to leak and that is causing the run but if we go into another 3-6 month lull, the AVXL excitement beyond this board will die down and the price will reflect that.
The good news is that I think its safe to sat the 2s and low 3s are behind us.
It's looking less likely now but I still wouldn't be surprised to see the price pushed back under $4, and consolidating around the $3.80/$3.90 level.
It appears that a fund or two may be accumulating, and a lot of Anavex's shares are held by retail holders who won't sell. I wouldn't be surprised to also discover that the number of outstanding borrowed shares has decreased as well .
At this point healthy consolidation would be a positive development. Each day we are getting closer to the Rett being data released and the more shorts that are holding a position if that data is positive, the bigger the squeeze will be.
I agree. The voucher's value will come in the event that Anavex wants to develop A371.
No, it doesn't add anywhere near that amount of value.
The current value of the priority review voucher is less than $100 million. In 2015, United Therapeutics sold one for $350 million. In 2018, one sold for $81 million. Congress is trying to make it easier to have access to medicine, especially experimental medicine (i.e. Right to Try Act) and that is driving the value of these review vouchers.
Anavex has 50 million shares outstanding. I'm sure its more but lets use 50 million to be conservative.
At its peak, $350M / 50M shares would be $7/share.
Currently, $80M / 50M shares would be $1.60.
How do you get $15 to $16? Please cite a source that shows the value of these review vouchers is now above $700 million? Thanks!
Maybe it goes to $40, maybe it doesn't. I can think of a good reason why to do an offering before a read out of the data: protection.
If the data is good, there won't be an offering. There will be a partnership or a buyout for billions of dollars. Missling knows he doesn't have the time or money to build the entire distribution and marketing and manufacturing by himself, and it's more cost-efficient to partner or sell in the short-term. Because there is a patent expiration and AVXL has no other source of recurring revenue, the short-term is the priority.
But if the data is bad, I think anyone would agree that it's better to do an offering at $5 than at .50. If Dr. Missling believes that A371 is the superior compound, as its rumored to be, taking out some insurance now may not be a bad strategy. Worst case he has funds to pursue a new path, best case he still becomes insanely rich even with another round of dilution.
So no, I don't think that it's out of the realm of possibility and to conservative investors, it would be a preferrable strategic decision than to gamble the company's entire existence on the readout of Rett data -- because we all know that the market will use Rett as a litmus for whether A273 will work for Alzheimer's and Parkinsons.
Needs approval before the voucher has any value.
Figure if it gets approved, the voucher will add between .80 - $1.25/share of value to the stock price.
$2.68 needs to hold over the next week, if it does I think we can say goodbye to the $2.2s forever.
Still an all or none gamble because AVXL doesn't have any other revenue producing assets. But relative to other ALZ pipeline drugs, 273 has as good a shot as any and AVXL seems cheap relative to other similar stage bio startups.
It wouldn't surprise me to see $4-$5 by July.
This is a good point. Insider buying is often a positive signal but even the insiders sometimes get it wrong. If I were Dr. Missling I wouldn't buy shares either if I were given such a lucrative incentive package. Why take on additional risk? If the trials succeed and this goes to $50/share, he's going to rake in more profits than all of us combined.
I'm more interested in institutional ownership. What concerns me is that none of the really prominent funds that specialize in biotech have bought in yet. Baker Brothers, etc, the ones that are always early to the party elsewhere.
It is what it is. Not the most ideal situation for leadership to not partake with their own money but not the end of the world signal, either. As long as the data continues to be positive, what Missling does with his money shouldn't concern anyone. How much money he's making, however, is a concern that should be worrisome for investors relative to the stock's performance over the last 5 years.
Joey will have made millions in salary and benefits over the last decade. He's grossly overpaid, both for what he does and based on the stock's performance.
At this point would it surprise anyone if he bleeds the company dry? Nobody will do business with him going forward if they Google his name and see how badly he mismanaged GIGL, how he was "allowed to resign" from TD Ameritrade, his involvement at Barron Chase, etc.
Put a fork in this one. So much potential, so much ineptitude. And now he doesn't even have Philip Gay to fall back on -- one by one his "all star" management team has abandoned him.
Fingers are crossed. I still have a core position that I'm not touching, and we are in year 4 of 5 for me -- I predicted in late 2015 that it would take five years to see definitive results and I've got 12 months left to see if the prediction holds true.
The common theme though is that bacteria plays a role with Alzheimer's. Anavex believes this bacteria originates in the gut, while this new company believes it originates in the mouth.
I don't know if this is an orchestrated pump or money grab. It's possible. But what the CEO of CTRX did well was go out and immediately secure funding to advance through a P3 trial. It has positive data, it took that data to Pfizer and Takeda and Sequoia and others and now it's able to easily complete its P2/3 500+ person trial. Investors don't have to worry about ATM offerings with suspect firms like Lincoln Park, or $250M shelf registrations, and that provides a degree of stability that Anavex has never had.
The other advantage is that CRTX now has built-in partnerships if the drug does prove effective. One of those two firms will end up buying the company and investors are comforted by that, too. So from a purely financial perspective, CRTX seems like a safer bet -- if I'm an investor who isn't familiar with the Alzheimer's space, I'd feel more comfortable putting my money with Pfizer and Takeda and Sequoia than with Lincoln Park.
It remains to be seen if this is another AXON. I do think CRTX is very overpriced at the present value with the present info available, but someone is taking a very large stake in this and traders are adding fuel to the fire. As for AVXL, it's not necessarily zero-sum: both drugs can be effective and approved. But if there are several simultaneous advancements in Alzheimer's research it will certainly have a dampening effect on the valuations as opposed to if one company single-handedly comes up with the next big treatment.
I think it's way too early to tell if the data is worthless or not.
I remember a lot of people, back in 2015, saying the same about Anavex because it was a P1A trial with only 32 people and no placebo, no blinds, etc.
The difference between CRTX and AVXL is that CRTX has IPO money behind it. There are vested interests that want to see it succeed. The good news is that it demonstrates AVXL is significantly undervalued if one accepts CRTX's market cap of $1.8B as being fairly valued. But anyone who says that CRTX is BS, or anything of the sort isn't being objective either because it's way too early to know if that company has stumbled onto something groundbreaking.
I see a lot of parallels between AVXL in 2015 and CRTX today. I also feel bad for early CRTX investors because if those parallels hold true, they have a long and bumpy road ahead of them.
Just stopping by to wish everyone here a happy holiday season (now that it is officially winter).
I noticed AVXL had a decent run a few weeks ago followed by a predictable pullback. Notwithstanding the obvious that it all hinges on positive data from the various trials, this consolidation bodes well for the transfer of shares from weak to strong shareholders.
I've more or less stopped trading the last six months but if I were looking to acquire additional shares for a trading account, anything under $2.50 would be tempting for the next run above $3+, with a near-term low loading zone around $2.28 and a high around $2.75.
Good luck and enjoy the last few days of the holidays!!