Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Gator328]

Two weeks ago I think $4 would have been a natural consolidation point. I am less inclined to say that now, although nothing would surprise me. Anavex is as unique a stock I've ever seen in my 30+ years following the market. It has a rabid "fan base" for better or worse that holds a considerable number of shares and a few institutions that hold a large number of shares.

If/when other funds want to buy more shares or take a position, they have two options: 1) Either buy the shares that LPC dumps into the market, or 2) Buy shares from people like you and me.

A lot of the current spike is FOMO and traders -- they view AVXL as a momentum play and will keep buying until the party starts to die down. Once that happens the shorts will come back and do their thing, which is a healthy cycle. My target for $4 or so is mostly from the longer-term TA. If you look at the year chart you'll see it knocked around $3.80-$4 a few times before finally breaking through. Now that becomes support and in my experience stocks like to test the previous levels of resistance before moving higher.

Of course, if news comes out that is positive everything changes. Its possible that news is starting to leak and that is causing the run but if we go into another 3-6 month lull, the AVXL excitement beyond this board will die down and the price will reflect that.

The good news is that I think its safe to sat the 2s and low 3s are behind us.