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I apologize if my references to drugs are offputting to some. I'm picking them up from watching "Braking Bad." It's an MSLPD crazy good show! We need a guy like Walter on MP's management team. Do whatever it takes, just make the company profitable!
Better call Saul if MP'S stock price keeps tanking!
http://www.bettercallsaul.com
If I had to guess--the reverse split, the desire for an uplist, and Mr. Phillip Frost's possible involvement are all related. It's part of the Illuminati's plan to turn every man, woman, child into Muscle Pharm addicts. We're just pawns in the grand scheme of things, you're only beginning to see the tip of the iceberg. The Muscle Pharm darkness will soon envelope and consume you like...hey, who's hiding my crack pipe?
Is Muscle Pharm at a desperate juncture? Well, getting a 20% loan when interest rate is low, low, low, low (I have stop because it can't get any lower) should be a clue. Is a down-and-out meth addict visiting a loan shark desperate?
I see three possible scenarios IF the loan proceeds:
1. They use the money to window dress the company in order to sell it. Good for longs.
2. Mr. Frost somehow gains controlling interest, at which point our shares will be massively diluted but it'll still favorable to longs because Mr. Frost's team will know what to do with the company. It'll be a case of, "I'd rather have 1% of a billion than 100% of a million." We'll get a smaller piece of a much larger pie.
3. Worst case scenario. The 3 Amigos, being spendthrifts, blow the pawnshop lawn and issue more shares on the open market to pay it off. If I remember correctly the authorized shares are up to 100 million. If this ever happens, I'd classify MP as a sophisticated scam. I'm praying it doesn't unfold in this manner.
I believe the problems are fundamental (structural, rotten within).
--the 3 Amigos are enamored with being surrounded by star athletes at whatever the cost. There needs to be a balance. They don't seem to have a solid business background.
--appointing a lawyer, Mr. Bluher, as the COO to solve supply chain issues wasn't a good idea. Lawyers tend to delay and obfuscate things. Great companies are not founded or run by lawyers. Nothing personal to Mr. Bluher.
--management appears to carry an adversarial attitude with its shareholders (us vs. them) when we're on the same team. They need to communicate and be forthcoming. What factors are preventing the company from being profitable? Keep the shareholders updated, good, bad or ugly. We need to know. Are they hiding something?
--executive compensation contingent on revenue growth is one main reason we're seeing explosive sales growth at the risk of the company going bankrupt.
--the CEO seeing the trees for the forest. If I recall correctly, his salary is $400,000 a year. In order to make $8 million, he'd have to work 20 years at that salary. Or he can ease off on the ego and let seasoned business managers turn the company profitable. At which point, he'd be worth $10 million from his MP shares.
I can take this MP train wreck in good humor because I've already mentally written off the investment.
GLTA
Looks like NCTY could be the next CYOU. Nice year over year growth, quarter over quarter growth, tight float, healthy inst. ownership.
Thanks for the heads up.
Does anyone remember Chinese Internet stocks that went from dollars to pennies between 2000-2003? After the recovery, those same stocks eventually became 50-300 baggers. For example, NetEase was at one point $0.04.
I believe that most of the bad apples have been weeded out in the recent Chinese accounting fiasco. I'm not saying that we'll see the same results, but when the sector recovers there's an enormous opportunity for long-term investors--possibly 5-20 baggers for the right companies. Here's an excellent list compiled by $tockfather: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=82516900
Also, the solar panel industry is due for consolidation and rebound. It's just a matter of time.
The stock market goes in cycles and I'm hoping to ride the Chinese and solar panel cycles from the bottom to the top. Then top to bottom through shorting.
A guy can dream, can't he? GLTA.
Yes, it will be interesting to see how "The Wisdom of the Crowd" works here. If a few dozen kids can correctly guess the number of jelly beans in a jar, we should hold our own. At least I hope. lol.
It appears that we, as the collective, don't know what the hell we're doing.
Not all estimates were arbitrary (random). Some were projections or educated guesss based on previous quarter numbers and sales position of the product at GNC and increased number of distributors (Amazon). They weren't all random guesses.
4th quarter EnerJel sales projection.
According to collective estimates, sales should be:
1. $192,680. The average of 25 estimates.
2. $168,625. The average of 24 estimates, excluding the $770,000 estimate because it deviated too far from the norm.
3. $180,655. The average of 1 and 2.
We're in okay shape if our collective reasoning is correct.
MP management's April PR to entice investors could be considered fraudulent.
Better call Saul!
http://www.bettercallsaul.com/
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MusclePharm Corp Announces Stock Repurchase Program
Tuesday, 24 Apr 2012 06:57am EDT
MusclePharm Corp announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a stock repurchase program of up to 100 million shares of MusclePharm common stock in open market transactions. vFinance Investments, Inc., a subsidiary of National Holdings Corporation, has been appointed to purchase, on the Company's behalf, shares of MusclePharm common stock in compliance with the provisions of Rule 10b5-1 and 10b-18 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The repurchase program, approved by the Company's Board at an April 18, 2012 Board of Directors meeting, expires at the earlier of the close of trading on December 31, 2012, the purchases reach 100 million shares or the Company gives notice of termination to vFinance Investments, Inc.
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/MSLPD.PK/key-developments/article/2526294
MP Products. They're crazy good and insanely priced (way, way below what pawnshops charge for similar products!)
Legal disclaimer: You, the purchaser, agree not to tell our supply chain personnel about any additional discount you may have received on top of our already insane prices (way, way, way below our production cost!)
Yeah, management doesn't want potential investors to know about the pending $20 million pawnshop loan. You say potato, I say potatoe. You say bridge loan, I say pawnshop loan (at 20% when interest rate is low, low, low).
I've read posts from the last two years (not every one, just random ones here and there) and many people have called MP's management members some nasty names. If I were them I'd pause to ask myself, "Why are they calling us these filthy, loathsome names? Is it something we're doing? Something we're not doing?"
Another concern I have was the appointment of Mr. Bluher, a lawyer, as the chief operating officer. What does a lawyer know about supply chain management? MP needs a cost cutting and operations expert. Mr. Bluher's been at it for over a year and doesn't seem to be doing a good job. I suppose dating a (former?) reality TV star hasn't helped, either.
MP Management. We're not very good and what we do. Everyone knows it except us.
I'm going to share a secret with all you traders about how the business world REALLY works. Some companies charge $99.99 for this information. For a limited time only, this information FREE to you. No charge and no obligation on your part!
How the business world really works: You slap your logo on on star athletes and everything will be fine--you'll make huge profits and your stock will take off. NOT!
Pretend you are a retailer and are given two products:
1. A product that you make $.50 on. This is the gotta have product because star athletes are using/endorsing it.
2. A product that you make $1.00 on (twice the profit of product 1). It essentially does the same thing as product 1.
Which product would you carry as a retailer? If you were smart, you would carry both. You may even enthusiastically advertise that you carry product 1 (star athlete product) to draw people in.
However, in the actual STORE, you would place product 1 in an obscure location (e.g., hard to find center aisles)and let the customer specifically ask for it. Then you would place product 2 (100% more profit) at the wall aisles, eye-level, and especially point of sales.
So, there you have it. Just slap your logo on star athletes and everything will be fine. Ya don't even have to worry about minor issues such as supply chain, distribution, product placement, cogs, etc. Slap 'em logos on athletes and everything will be fine.
Just ask Muscle Pharm how that's working for them the last four years.
Then they'r probably jonesing for the $20 million pawnshop loan to go through. lol.
One thing is for sure and that is the 3 Amigos, their wives, and their girlfriends really know how to spend the dough!
2 years is too slow for a trader. For an investor, it's a comfortable pace for a company to groom and mature. Most people these days, IMO, are traders and not investors. But it's all good as long as we all make money. Each to their own.
I'll take a chance (get it?) of that happening and hold for it or a pharma announcement or $1.50+ (revised from $1), whichever comes first.
"I can't name a single, damn sponsor of Monster or Rockstar."
So, how do they do so well? Even 5hr didn't have any endorsers until it did hundreds of millions in sales.
The founder of 5hr Energy said that the product has two distinct advantages over its competitors:
1. Convenient/small packaging (small, grab and go, fit in your pocket/purse). Only need to gulp about 60ml and not he usual 355ml to get the same effect.
2. Most important: The ability of the company to place its products at the point of sales (POS) at tens of thousands of convenience stores.
The vast majority of people don't compare shop or go out of their way for products under $10. If they don't see Fuse Drops at the 7-11 they normally frequent, they're not going to another location to look for it.
Because of the nature of the energy drink product, its placement is much more important than who endorses it. Of course, it's better to have both, like Red Bull (product placement and celebrity endorsers).
LIWA and CXDC have enormous potential for long-term investors (not traders).
LIWA: The company had forensic accounting performed on its financials, making them very reliable and accurate.
CXDC: Morgan Stanley Asia invested $150 million in China XD Plastics making the chance of any funny business slim to none. http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/invest_management/private_equity/pe_asia/portfolio.html
Have a look at their incredible revenue growth, profit, and cash. Just amazing numbers.
Symbol LIWA. Forensic accounting has been performed on the company, so the financials are reliable and accurate.
Chinese energy companies are looking for deals all over the planet. It may be a good idea for Shaol to explore this avenue.
Would it be a surprise to anyone if one of their wives or girlfriends suggested the FittMiss line? lol.
Learning_curve, my last post for awhile and some food for thought. You wrote, "Frost does like to buy those shares on the open market."
I will present to you a scenario in which Mr. Frost can gain control of MP without buying a single share on the open market. Muscle Pharm is an insolvent company if it wasn't receiving external cash infusion. In the past, this cash infusion has been through the dilution of common shares. My impression is that those providing goods and services to MP now refuse to be paid in continuously falling MP shares and the company is unable to secure a market rate, traditional loan, thus forcing it to seek a 20% interest rate loan.
When a company becomes insolvent, those with claims to its assets are, (don't remember the exact order):
1. Payroll.
2. Secured creditor. (pretty much sure Mr. Frost belongs here if the loan proceeds).
3. Bondholders.
3. Unsecured lenders.
4. Common stock holders (us, we're in last place, baby!).
I can see a few scenarios unfolding with this bridge loan:
1. MP management pulls through and stock takes off. In which case, I'll rent an upscale hotel room for week and celebrate with cocaine and hookers (just kidding, maybe not a week. lol.).
2. MP is unable to fulfill its loan obligations and is unable to secure other sources of funding, allowing Mr. Frost to make claims to the company as a secured creditor.
3. MP is bought out by a larger company, which fulfills the loan obligation to Mr. Frost.
I'm sure there are other possible scenarios. According to Forbes, Mr. Frost is worth $2.4 billion. A person in his position has expectations and standards. I'm sure that he has a minimum expected rate of return in every deal he considers and a 20% interest rate on a $20 million loan is pocket change for him.
His line of thinking may be: MP is worth more than $20 million, the amount he's willing to lose to gain control of the company if MP fails on its loan obligations.
Who knows, maybe the 3 Amigos have something up their sleeve. Like using the money to make the company and balance sheet look prim and proper and pretty to attract a suitor.
Or MP can work out a deal whereby Mr. Frost owns part of the company, which is more acceptable than the possibility of becoming insolvent.
I don't get the warm and fuzzy feeling that Mr. Frost is the white knight riding in to save MP without some consequences to current shareholders.
GLTA.
I managed to average down to $5.95 (post split). At this point, I wouldn't recommend MP to anyone (new or trying to average down) because there's so much uncertainty. All the company has to do is turn a profit and the stock will surge. Is it because it can't do it or unwilling to do it? What are the factors preventing it from turning a profit?
I've spent enough time pondering on this insanely insane company. Time to enjoy life.
GLTA.
Learning_curve, I'm sorry to hear that you're "down big." It's a learning process. I bought/averaged down at $5.95 (post split) and MP is only about 7% of my portfolio. So, all things considered I could be worse off. This stock's been dead money for me for about 8 months, so if I'm in this deep, might as well stick with it and see what happens.
At this point, I wouldn't mind if there's even a 50% dilution providing that they can make a PROFIT from current operations and slow down expansion plans until they're a self-sustaining company.
GLTA.
I have the perfect solution for the overwhelming concern of EnerJel's expiration date issue. In one episode of the Simpsons Homer worked at Kwik E Mart. Apoo said to him, something to the effect, "Why are you standing there doing nothing? Go change the expiration date on the milk cartons."
We could do the same with EnerJel. Think how much this method will contribute to the bottom line. lol.
With all due respect Learning_curve, I'm with Crossroad on this one. What we know about wealthy people is they're capable of making shrewd deals. MP's market cap is currently around $12 million--about 25% (not sure exact amount) owned by insiders and the rest, I'm guessing retail investors like us and no institutional investors that I'm aware of.
So how are Mr. Frost and his crew going to make any appreciable return with the current stock structure? They either pursue the roughly 25% insider shares or the other 75% that we own in the manner Crossroad described. They obviously see enormous potential in MP like many of us do (once the company is profitable).
IMO, it is very unlikely that they're facilitating the bridge loan and hoping MP will fail to meet its obligations and make a return on the usurious interest rate. That's pocket change to them.
They may be thinking:
--last quarter revenue $18.5 million (conservatively assuming no growth) x 4 = $74 million revenue. Value of the brand?
--bring down COGS, SG&A.
--bring is seasoned business managers. Get rid of the 3 Amigos or reduce their roles in the company.
--streamline distribution through larger company.
--make company profitable. At the current market condition, with big names behind it, the market value of MP should be around $100+ million.
The only way I can think of for them to gain control of MP is in the manner in which Crossroad described. I'm often wrong about many things but my feeling is that the 3 Amigos are not sophisticated enough to deal with the ilk of this Mr. Frost and his crew.
MP Management. We're insanely insane. We're about to give our company away to the sharks!
Thanks, Showme. The NSF check thing I can take in good humor. Not sure if I can this one the same way.
Apple's market cap. is close to $600 billion. Its projected fiscal 2013 revenue is around $170 billion.
We're in an environment where bankers are encouraging sustainable companies to borrow money for capital expenditure, even if those companies could use their own money, because the interest rate is near zero.
This bridge loan business at an usurious rate if obligations aren't met...why not rent a couple of semi-trailers , emblazon them with "Muscle Pharma" on all sides, load them up with Assault and Fight Stack, and head down to the local pawn shop to get the money? At least we'll get exposure from the locals this way.
On another topic, we know that a company buying back its stock is a very bullish sign. I don't remember whether MP fulfilled its stock buyback program announced in April, 2012.
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/MSLPD.PK/key-developments/article/2526294
This announcement was a major catalyst that made me invest in MP.
This was a while back.
"MusclePharm is a healthy life-style company that develops and manufactures a full line of NSF.."
Are they referring to the NSF check that MP wrote to a supplier in which the supplier complained about on MP's facebook page?
MP Management. We're insanely insane. Just ask our suppliers!
http://voices.yahoo.com/musclepharm-strong-position-11924679.html?cat=51
Wholeheartedly agree, Avocet. For me, MP is already a tragic comedy. Luckily, only about 7% of my portfolio is riding on it. At this point, I'm hoping for a buy out or a Hail Mary profit announcement.
I'm more of an investor than a trader so I tend to hold until the fundamentals improve.
MP Products. They're crazy good and insanely priced (way, way below our production cost!)
Legal disclaimer: You, as the purchaser, agree that you will not tell our accounting department if you received a discount on top of our already insanely priced products (way, way, way below our production cost!)
MP Products. They're crazy good and insanely priced--way, way below our cost to produce them!
Legal disclaimer: You agree, as the purchaser, not to tell our shareholders that you took advantage of our crazy good insanely priced products (way, way below our cost to produce them!)
MP Management. We're insanely insane. Ask our accountant and shareholders!
I'm in deep, so that's why at this point I'm holding my breath for a buyout in the next 6-14 months. Even with a possible revenue of $60+ million and an established brand, a larger company should find MP appealing. At least I hope so.
We can put hopes and dreams aside for a moment and cut to the simple and obvious?
At this point, the more product MP sells, the more money it loses. If a product costs $1.2 to produce and sells for $1, how much money do we make on it? We don't. We lose money. Simple math tells us that we either need to reduce the cost of goods sold or increase the selling price in order to make a profit. MP management doesn't seem to get this very simple and obvious concept. Or worse, the cost of goods sold cannot be reduced so the product can be sold for a profit or the market is so price sensitive that the product will not sell above a certain price point (the cogs price).
So having 10 of the top 50 products at bb.com isn't a blessing. It's a curse because the more products we sell, the more money we lose! MP is a dilution machine and management treats this dilution machine as their personal ATM, to the detriment of shareholders!
MP Management. We're insanely insane. We sell products for less than it costs to produce them. Ask us how we do it!
MP Management. WE'RE INSANELY INSANE. We go from one money losing operation to another! Ask us how we do it!
There are diet supplement companies that make money. MP is not one of them.
There are diet supplement companies that target women that make money. MP will not be one of them, according to its track record.
MP's management is very good at building a brand, but extremely poor at running a business. It appears that they have no concept of what COGS (cost of goods sold)is.
If you put MP's management team in any business, it will lose money and bled the company dry. The company is only as good as the people running it. The MP management team is not good at running a business, this is based on a four year track record.
I'm long and hope things change for the better. I've read posts from the last two years on this board, which I wish I had done before I bought MP shares, and the theme is the same: MP's management team (aka "The 3 Amigos) are clueless at running a business.
One lmao is an NSF check to a supplier in which the supplier complaint about on MP's facebook page. That made my day.
I completely agree with this sentiment. IMO, at this point, the only way longs will make money is if MP is bought out by a larger company with more experienced business managers and remove MPs current management team.
The problems at MP are fundamental and cannot be fixed until the people running the company are removed. How does anyone justify venturing into another business when they're losing crazy money on their core business? If they can't make money on their core business, what makes them think they can make money in another business?
First, we build a lemonade stand to sell lemonade. Then with the profit from our lemonades, we venture into orange juice...
Not, we lose crazy money on lemonade, then hope to make money on orange juice...Or get out of the lemonade business and go into the orange juice business.
They're creating more problems when they haven't even fixed the first problem. Insanely insane MP management! Learn how to crawl before you can walk, MP management.
The stock market goes in cycles. Right now Chinese stocks are out of favour due to the dubious accounting practices associated with many, but not all, Chinese companies.
My opinion is that it doesn't matter how well SINO is doing or will do, the company's being painted with a broad brush stroke along most Chinese companies listed in the U.S.
If you're a contrarian investor now is the time to load up on Chinese stocks whose financials have been audited. Because of macro conditions, I think SINO is dead money for the next 6-8 months.