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Sometimes stocks never retrace, especially when the move is orderly and based on the kind of news that caused this rally. I think we could see a pul back to low 40s given the low volume days til January and the chance for mms to manipulate stop loss orders. Merry Christmas to all and best of New Years.
I have INO at 208 shares outstanding.
Hey mpat, happy holidays and the best of New Years. You are right on target with the dilution potential of ONCS versus INO, I think that is what is holding the stock back now. ONCS is not nearly as deep in resources and pipeline but has a much lower market cap and smaller number of shares outstanding. Both should do well, if I were to want to hold one longer it would be INO. As a trade, especially since the melanoma data is out I'd rather play ONCS just because it hasn't gotten the attention yet and again, your assessment of how each could do in 2014 is on point. Eventually, I would like to hold twice as much, or more in dollar terms, of INO, but I'd like to catch ONCS on an INO like run first.
Sound wisdom reindeer. It's nice for us to walk into a stock right as it begins a run, but more often than not there is some pain and uncertainty as we await our expectations to be realized. While I am trying to "parlay" my INO and ONCS trades, and was able to do so from INO to ONCS in late November, I will have a tough time deciding when to unload some ONCS to reload my INO. It's a nice problem to have though.
We are good Sabai and I have a very short term memory. Investing brings out the best and worst of us sometimes. Glad you got in and made a nice chunk. I still believe ONCS chart will really begin to mimic INO now, let's enjoy a great new year and a great run for INO and ONCS.
Sometimes biotechs remind me of The Gong Show. Yes I am that old Groucho!
IMUC got "gonged" today. Who's up next?
Yeah, I tried that to remove an ingrown hair, it resulted in cognitive deficits, not to mention the scar!
2.07 was the low 2.55 was the monthly high fwiw.
INO is in Eagles country.
Crazy game. Eagles just tied it.
Go to yahoo - finance - INO- historical prices.
These are the heavy issues we are left to deal with in the absence of any news. Hope that changes soon. Have a great weekend.
Was married to a girl, now married to a woman. She nailed it.
Now she needs to provide some good insight about this stock, something like "why owning ONCS is better than (fill in the blank)".
Thanks mm checking it out.
Mmrich nice call on this, you are the man!
Yeah, coz the FDA secretly sends Phase II results to the big pharma companies before releasing them to everyone else.
Sorry Tig, that is a comment worthy of the Yahoo boards.
But if that were true, we would be s--- out if luck, because if the results were good, we would already be bought or have offers. Since we don't, and they have the results, uh oh.
Another buy signal for PLUG
http://americanbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=PLUG
Mmrich this is your kind of stuff. Have a great weekend all.
We're good Sabai, we are on a winning team here. Have a great holiday weekend.
You know him Eman so I believe you are right. Gilead is a good comparison, I'd take that. In a nanosecond.
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
I believe INO is the real deal and that they wii receive increasingly lucrative partnership agreements. Their ability to turn out vaccines in such incredibly short time frames will create a problem, though a good one; when that first caller comes knocking and offers $2.5 billion for the whole company, will they take it or will they remain independent? Who is going to turn down $10 per share, and what big pharma would not view that as a drop in the bucket to acquire not only the inventory, but the technology and the human resources. I believe that will be the most difficult question Kim will encounter in the next 18 months.
1) not pumping ONCS, I own more INO than ONCS. 2) if you think for one second that negative news from ONCS could not affect INO you are delusional, IF that news is in regard to the delivery versus the drug. Not saying it is likely, but it is possible. I'm simply saying that there is more news due from ONCS in the near term than from INO. Whether that is good or bad remains to be seen. Don't lose your balance Sabai, you might fall off a cliff.
Wall Street Cheat Sheet article today on Oncosec:
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/oncosec-medical-leading-the-charge-against-skin-cancer.html/?ref=YF
Been adding today, December around the corner, gives option to hold for long term cap gains in late 2014 or defer to 2015. Great time to tax plan for next year.
MMs getting greedy now, gonna pull the rest of the bid. Slow week might see some more weakness.
Now it will fill, partially anyway!
Did anyone here notice how, when the stock hit topped out in the .15 range sell orders below the bid were not getting filled?
I placed sells several times at .001 or more below the bid and got bypassed several times. That's when I knew the big players were exiting their positions and we small fry were getting kicked to the back of the line. When I placed my sells .003 to .004 below they filled but it. Still took me down to the .125 range to sell all that I wanted to release. Was a beautiful run though. Thanks Celtic for turning me on to this one.
Will look to grab some on a pullback to .62. Think I might see that before another fun. Agree about the INO run up on this PR, but still think the Roche deal takes 1.20 out of play. I wouldn't mind seeing it though, I would load the boat absent of real bad news. They do have some good days ahead of them but not nearly as soon as others would believe IMHO.
Beauty of a call on PLUG, I did well with ELRA bought at .044, sold today in the teens. All thanks to Celtic from the INO board who turned me on to it. Might become a great technical play for a guy like you, I'm done though.
Keep keeping it real mmrich, it's what I like about you.I have some thoughts on the worship fest on the INO board, agree with your assessment. Can't private message you though since I'm a freebie here. Be well my friend.
Yeah, I steer clear of the politics, just reporting the numbers. We have a government of the politicians, by the politicians and for the politicians. Most of us here are on an island though, both parties claim to be wanting our interests. Really they all want is our principal and our interest.
Sorry to have created such a brouhaha. Since 1970 we have only had 4 years with a budget surplus, 1998 to 2001. Bottom line, our credit card balance is increasing at a slower rate, still not a comforting thought.
Virtually all stocks get a haircut during a correction, as funds arbitrarily trim their equities and move to cash. Corrections are healthy, crashes are toxic unless you are on the sidelines. Our deficits are declining year over year, significantly, but there is still a huge amount of debt to be serviced, eventually. More likely than not an induced inflationary cycle will happen in the next 10 years to discount the debt's impact.
I like risk in a mature but not overbought market, but am hoping INO and a few others I own make big runs before end of next year cause I'd like to have a nice cash hoard to buy bargains when a significant correction happens.
Fundamentals do matter, in the case of INO, the lack of fundamentals is what creates volatility. The market perceived this to be a $100 million early stage biotech when we were in the .50s and .60s. Kim changed that perception with some very informative presentations. But the market still perceives this to be a less than $500 mil market cap biotech, even with the Roche deal. The market also likely dilutes by any "shelf" shares assuming these are brought into play at some point in the future. So if those shares bring us to 250 million, today's price is right on the $500 million number.
I price the stock as follows: another significant partnership takes the perceived value to a billion. Successful phase II data on HPV to $2 billion. Remember this still leaves us without an approved drug, but with an $8 PPS. There are way too many factors to account for any speculation beyond that, my theory is that, if those benchmarks above are achieved along with expected progress of Roche milestones, the company gets bought out in 2-3 years at somewhere between $5 and $10 billion. But there are a boatload of "ifs" between here and there.
The enthusiasm here is not surprising, the potential is formidable. But it will not happen overnight.
Eman is right to say there will be runs and there will be backsliding, you can hold til you reach your goals or buy in and out on the love and hate cycle a stock like this always generates.
Hey mmrich, I wussed out at .63 after buying at .57, a nice little 10% bump though, so thanks. I'll be watching if we break .73 or pull back for another shot. Been loading up my ALLRF, it will start trading on the London exchange in December and I anticipate a bump from that. Unloaded my INO in the 1.92 range last week and bought some back before the recent bump. Can't sell before Monday cause of the free ride so I'm holding my breath.
Enjoy the weekend.
Market makers make billions of dollars at the expense of small traders. It is virtually risk free. Absent of news they can simply watch the volume and when a bid ask imbalance occurs, they pounce and create a free fall like end of day. Then they hope for some frustrated retail traders to surrender their shares or stop loss out, grab them, and immediately bump the ask to 10% or more than they paid. It's a fool's game. They hate any real news that may drive a stock to its real value.
Am I wrong or did this shutdown raise barely an eyebrow on CNBC? Shows just how much their reporting is geared toward large investors only.
ALLRF is about go blow! 100% to 200% in the next few months.
I had my accounts with Vanguard and was getting killed by brokerage fees, switched to Scottrade. Vanguard has since revised their fees. My biggest concern is that the current bull is getting old, and when the market goes south, speculative small caps get punished worse than any other stocks.
You have to take some risk, I went real big on INO in the 60s thru 80s and it has made my retirement. But it is something I would never do again with any stock. But I will put up to 25% into a single stock, never more than for a short trading period though. INO is as sure a winner as many others which is to say it could go to 25 cents or $25 over the next 5 years. That risk reward from these levels is worth the risk given that the Roche deal was for some of their second tier vaccines. And if the HPV shows positive results from Phase II, it is a game changer that validates big pharma to take risks to secure partnerships on the first tier vaccines. And those deals would have the potential to be worth billions.
Most small investors lose, largely due to the playing being hopelessly stacked against us. Still it's better than letting your money be "managed" in a 401k, always seemed to me that transfers from funds which were "conducted" at the end of the day made sure you got out at the low of the day and in at the high.
Glad you checked in mmrich, have a great weekend. Agree we should see a bump up for INO, down too far too fast. Given the lack of news, volatility is the next best thing.
Appreciate your input, just remember, love is blind, don't let it get in the way of what your gut (and your TA) tell you. I think we will all be pleased in a year or so whether we bought at .60, 1.60 or 2.60.
"To dismiss TA is to dismiss market perception as it is a reflection of price movement."
TA has nothing to do with market perception, it is the analysis historical price activity. Past performance is never an absolute predictor of future behavior.
"The math won't lie"
Then you should feel quite confident that it will continue to fall. After all, it has fallen for 8 straight weeks and just crossed under the MACD. You should just wait til the TA tells you to buy.
I don't dismiss TA, it absolutely has value as a tool. I am thankful that so many see it as the gospel though, because in many instances, while true believers wait for the trend to be confirmed, I can get a nice head start on my way to profits. Right now, my dirt bike technical analysis says the slope of the chart is too steep, so a great opportunity for a trade exists. Good luck to you.
LOL, the same could be said of shorts,so your comment is taken with a grain of salt.
The vacuum created by an absence of evidence is naturally filled by reasonable doubt. Shorts prey on this knowledge.
When Inovio has risen on no substantive news, it has quickly given up those gains. The same rules apply to a precipitous fall like we have seen the past few days, again on no substantive news.
Technical analysis is more a blunt instrument than a precision tool so many wish it to be, so I do not see the predicted falls to xx or yy week moving average as a certainty or a necessity. I think we are more likely to see a move to 1.85 or 1.95 than 1.45 or 1.35. But TA true believers can hang their hats on this falling to 1.67 which was one of the key technical levels. I don't think retracement to 1.40s 1.20s etc is a necessity.
Ultimately market perception is that this stock should hang around $2 pending any news and the algorithms simply saw an opportunity to run at and cull the herd. As panic subsides life will revert to the norm until the wolf pack regroups and sees another opportunity to chase it down. Either trade the volatility or tuck it away and don't look at the PPS until you plan to sell in a year or five.