Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc (INO)

[mackwheaton]

Fundamentals do matter, in the case of INO, the lack of fundamentals is what creates volatility. The market perceived this to be a $100 million early stage biotech when we were in the .50s and .60s. Kim changed that perception with some very informative presentations. But the market still perceives this to be a less than $500 mil market cap biotech, even with the Roche deal. The market also likely dilutes by any "shelf" shares assuming these are brought into play at some point in the future. So if those shares bring us to 250 million, today's price is right on the $500 million number.

I price the stock as follows: another significant partnership takes the perceived value to a billion. Successful phase II data on HPV to $2 billion. Remember this still leaves us without an approved drug, but with an $8 PPS. There are way too many factors to account for any speculation beyond that, my theory is that, if those benchmarks above are achieved along with expected progress of Roche milestones, the company gets bought out in 2-3 years at somewhere between $5 and $10 billion. But there are a boatload of "ifs" between here and there.

The enthusiasm here is not surprising, the potential is formidable. But it will not happen overnight.

Eman is right to say there will be runs and there will be backsliding, you can hold til you reach your goals or buy in and out on the love and hate cycle a stock like this always generates.