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Here is a potential stumbling block for wave going forward as it pertains to their financials.
If you are a company going forward those financials are enough to make you take a hard look or pause about this very big decision you might be ready to undertake especially if you are a mid size or large enterprise.
Outside of the outlay for computer equipment, one of the largest add on costs these enterprises have is having business software written for them and their particular business, and the maintenance and upgrades that accompany that sort of commitment and expenditure.
I have seen on many occasions where the company that has written these programs go under leaving these companies screwed and now heading out to find a new vendor and new platform.
This may be the situation the company is finding themselves in right now, along with the slow uptake.
One can argue about the product all day, but what about the stabillity of the company behind the product when you aren't invested in that company or drinking the kool aid for over 2 or 3 decades......
deletd
Telstar right on target.
This is mere peanuts to a company like DELL. Telling was the restructuring and reduction of the payments wave receives from DELL and you can see how that has impacted the bottom line, far from what was said by the pumperatti that supports every move this company makes blindly. In hindsight it looks like the DELL was renegotiated so DELL could limit the outflow to what has been a business non starter. You are correct about this cost over the years as peanuts to such a large company as DELL, right on point.
The reality is, and this was a very smart play for DELL. There investment in wave was akin to the roulette player who lays down a bet on the black and red at the same time. That is the value of wave to DELL.
Kaleid do a Google on Seagate wave logo and you will see how many times that pops up with their product in the exact same language wm used in his post I responded too. Keep looking wavoid.......
Sorry Wavxalmiman.. that wave logo is the trademarked logo Seagate has been using for years-nothing to do with Wave.
Lugan re 3rd quarter and cash flow positive....
One thing the wavoids need to pay attention to is new flow and releases coming from the company. Any substatial dollar amount the company has received has allows had a PR attached. Given the hostory it can be with certainty one could surmise they cannot reach that number without this sort of chain of events happening. Furthmore, if you think of the large deals that have brought money into the coffers it seems that they preceeded the quarter into which they would be recognized, but it's been so long since that happened, I may be mistaken.
Be that as it may, given how the third quarter has been the mantra, or should I say the latest in a long line of mantras, what say you if the third quarter misses. Then what, wait til the 4th quarter? Then what 2013 is the year?
Ridiculous
As weby likes to say, things take time.
Like seeing things for how they are, not how you want.
Lugan... really?
Paradigm shift is too strong a language to use at this juncture because that implies in use in spades. You are basing that on baseless dot connecting at this point. What has been implied and what has happened are 2 different realities. What flies on the message boards hasn't flown in the real world to this point and that is reflective within your post. 50 million in revenue within the totality of this space does not mean paradigm shift. Hell that can't even sustain a substantial company operating in this space, and wave is not a substantial sized company.
Probably used the sort of logic to come to those figures that sks used when addressing how the first quarter was going to shake out mere days before the end of the quarter
Escrow this is such a bogus statement
"No one has come close to replacing Wave"
How many units in place are being actively managed by wave?
How many new contracts are in place today with wave product?
There seems to be a disconnect between the reality of what is dd investors message board wave and the reality in which the company actually operates,
Lugan..........
While I agree this "agreement" looks good for wave I would still be cautious.
Wave also held contract with Seagate who at the time was the only provider for SED's. How was the revenue stream when that first started and how is that today.
HP was one of the OEM's that reached an agreement with wave and how does that revenue stream today.
There was no firm dollar amount affixed to that agreement. Correct me if I am wrong, but was there a specific product stated within that agreement as to what wave would be in and when that would be rolling out?
Is there an opt out in that agreement?
What often looks good for this company at the onset never seems to meet expectation.
I was because I am pretty sure that has been included in the past warrants anyway and just assuming ATM shares as well.
If not then it was a mistake, not trying to mislead down that road.
alritethen.........
Went back and saw your response from mid day March 29. The prior days close was 1.92. I think the degredation of the price from right around this time to today was done at the hands of the company and a reflection of where they really are in the marketplace today, contrary to what you see posted on the boards and here coming from those in charge. I think you are in for a long climb just to get back at those levels barring something coming out of left field. To say you need a left field announcement after all these years speaks volumes.
Trying to guess revenues with this company is almost pointless...
Everybody seems to be basing the improved revenue this quarter on words coming from within the company. At the very least after what was uttered right before close of Q1 would anybody lend credence to any sort of guidance coming from these guys. No confidence from where I stand, and that's based soley on their record and their words and actions. Take away the dot connecting and the cheerleading and let the record stand.
On can also argue about the increased revenue track the company was on until the last quarter, which I think was really far worse than the numbers show. If you look at the number of possible revenue generating opportunities the company has had since say 05/06 that number has grown sustatially and has also grown into different product segments. I think the arguement can be made that because of the growth and breadth that revenue has actually been flat when you take into account the growth in available opportunity of existing product in the end users hands.
Investors in this company celebrate the revenue growth. the real number crunchers and big money sit on the sidelines and wait, and I think they are seeing the number of units not being capitalized that are already in play. They see the lack of commitment at this point to the product. They see this as niche at this point.
I also believe they see what could happen should there be some sort of disruptment in the companies that the product is included in and how that will affect the quarterly revenues since they are so dependent upon that for the majority of their revenue and the lack of history for recurring revenues from those companies they have already doen business with.
The shareholders got a taste of that last quarter, sales down. the flooding hurting suplly chain, whatever.
I also think you are getting a small taste of what you as shareholders are going to be facing should there be any more delays or bumps in the road going forward.
A lot could be remedied with a solid quarter. The reality will be how much of the revenue they recognize with come from warrant and ATM shares sold. More of the same along the lines of Q1 and how many people are looking at scrambls the same way? How many people look at their ASM vote the same way?
I have a feeling that half the money that came in for Q2 will end up being tied to sale of shares.
Or one could look at the track record and look at the result compared to what actually transpired. Now look at what he said this time and use the same measuring stick that has stuck som many quarters in the past. Not a pretty picture for Q1.
Weby.......
I think it's pretty evident at this point that if and when-if ever- things move towards a pace where it can be discerned that this sort of a security solution, and what part it is going to play in the whole ecosystem of the computing landscape, it is going to be at a pace that wave cannot dictate.
If that is going to be the case I think the focus needs to be on how this company is going to try and keep itself solvent as a going concern.
If I was still a long investor in this company I would find the events of the past week very very disturbing, especially given the timing on Friday of the iunformation that was released. That type of information could have been released in lieu of the CC that was cancelled. Everybody knows you bury bad news going into the weekend period.
While the wavoids can sit and praise the vision of your ceo, there is a massive body of work of missteps and missives as far as it concerns the shareholders and stakeholders in this company, and that body of work is complete enough to raise a caution flag for anybody who wants to look at the whole picture. It cannot be denied and while this story may be old,tired and seem to be the removing of old scars, the debacle from last week is just another log on the bonfire.
The bigger picture still shows this company as one that is still in need of funding the company thru sales of it's stock. It's a company that has zero insider purchasing, and the argument can be made that while the ceo is purchasing shares thru the ESOP, that money that is being used to pay his salary was not revenue derived but from the sale of stock that has dilluted wave longs sharevalue.
The lack of transparancy and forthrightedness from this ceo going forward and starting with this ammended 10-K should be coupled with a vivid truthful picture of what has transpired during Q1 of this year-especially now since this quarter has only 8 days at this point, less when the the results are released. At the very least if the CC is not rescheduled, a letter is owed to every shareholder in this company laying out exactly what transpired and why with solid guidance for the 1st quarter that juves when the actually results are released. The longs from this company deserve that at a bare minimum.
bspencer........
Think about this for a minute. Many of the longs on this board have tackled that issue and rushed to his defense by invoking the "he buys shares thru the ESOP" excuse.
Well, while the company was dilluting shareholders thru the numerous private placements over the years, those funds were used to fund the business. Included in that was paying the salaries. His salary and raises which have come at the expense of the same long shareholders and their dilluted shares funded those purchases. By not taking on debt and chosing to run the company on the backs of the shareholders, has anybody truly used their own money here?
Wildman.........
If somebody did buy, it would probably be with money loaned them from the company..........
Orda,
The longs would love nothing better than to see the shorts have concern over their position. Problem is they seem to think that the shorts look at their position in this stock the same way they do, and it can't be framed that way. By nature of their stance in the stock the position is always temporary and you cannot say that about a long wavoid. There is no attachment to the stock other than when to move in. The only way to get the shorts in the way the wavoids want is to have a move upward and have that sustained. Again it hasn't happened and therefore this has been a dream vehicle for the shorters.
Truth be told, the longs and the company are probably lucky there aren't more shorts on this train. Another crap quarter like last one and you might see more climb on board. That is unless the 10 to 20 companies in the pipeline show up LMFAO x 2. Maybe if Peter could have driven those 10,000 SED's to sks so he could have only had them in hand.
If comes are a beautiful thing, but not in investing.
"If I was short Wave I would have some concern"
How many times over the last 10 years have the shorts been burned? Not concerned, burned.
Famed pitcher Three-Finger Brown can count them on one hand.
They have had to be concerned as many times as wave has had 10 to 20 deals in the pipeline. And how big of a concern is it when they always have time to move out, and time almost always makes these deals in the pipeline vaporize.
The pipeline is the proverbial 5 dollar bill on the 5 pound test line the wavoids salivate over.
The best friend's the shorts ever had in this stock is the way this company has misguided the shareholders, and the enthusiasm for which the shareholders on this message board have propped up the stock and the long, over invested shareholder base with some sort of dot connecting that has rarely born fruit as it pertains to the fionancial health of the company but is readily cited by the water carriers as if to validate something that is coming. For without these cheerleaders over the years the stock wouldn't have popped where it shouldn't, allowing these shorts to make cash hand over fist at the expense of the only group left out in cash grab that surrounds this company. The shorts get paid the traders get paid, the manglement team gets paid, the longs get there pockets picked and buy more.
Anybody want to explain again how the RS hasn't crushed any shareholder value when the outstanding share total is bumping up against the number just prior to the RS?
"but I sure as hell don't know who knows more about Trusted Computing than he does."
If that is the case Weby, than one could say the shareholders have been mislead by the leaders of this company. To know this sapce as intimately as everybody suggests would also suggest a realization to temper any sort of forward guidance. And that has never been the strong suit of this management group. Ever.
It's easy to armchair quarteback, and one can make that argument from both sides of this issue.
The issue that gets lost in the shuffle here is not every investor in wave wants to participate in or on the boards- which after 24 years is still the only real news outlet for better or worse concerning this company-in an active or read only mode. Therefore thos folks can only go on what soundbytes they get from Sprague, or what they hear on a CC link. They do not have the benefit of the discourse that comes with the boards.
Put yourself in that investors shoes. I think what becomes defensible by the longs on these boards becomes the opposite when you look at the words of the ceo alone in the eyes of that investor.
I've been around long enough to see what is for real with this company in the way of revenues, and stop putting faith in the if comes as far as this company is concerned. The road travelled is littered.
TKC,
The other factor to consider with all these high profile security failures, breech dosen't sound severe enough, is the effect on the shareprice.
The shareprice will continue to meander downward without any revenue producing announcements. I would think that "demo" at this point would drive home that they are still trying to sell the concept. IMO, not good at this stage.
Anything short of that and this stock is under 2.00 easy, maybe even around 175/1.85 range by the 4th.
Not that this stock ever moves in concert with the general market, but I have a feeling we are moving into the mid 11,000's on the Dow in short order.
Weby
That's fine to think I am wrong. You state the others we don't know. Those don't contribute enought to the bottom line as of yet. There is still some question as to the terms of the DELL contract and how they may have been reworked going forward.
You state HDTV took 30 years. Fine. With the auto revenue coming off the books this year, and there is nothing signed coming on the horizon, and the employee number grown over the last few years, a PP is highly likely. How much dillution are they going to take on, how big of a hit will the share price take and with the float right now just shy of the number when the RS was executed would they have the balls to do that again and how would the longs react to any of this?
This must be the year the execute- they don't have a runway out much past this year.
The problem with your HDTV analogy is that people could actually see the difference in picture,it was tangible and there was really no competiton and the problem was getting those that supplied the content to comply and when they did comply. Even on a limited basis at the begining with astronomical cost people still bought in.
With security, people still have a hard time grasping the differences between the different products, you can't see it. You understand the need for it, but it provides no immediate gratification. With a realtively cheap cost to protect very costly information the uptake has barely moved the meter.
Face it Weby, this is the last year for them to make a move.
You would be foolish to say anything other than 50% right now.
A lot of folks on here would call that being short sighted, but this company has a track record of promising and not delivering.
What a lot of people seem to forget on these boards-and you can see it in the way the the bad guidance and other statements that don't bear fruit are hung with the cute euphamism "spraguespeak"
To me this is wavoids discounting what eminates from Lee. We have no way of knowing what is being told those on the outside. We do know the CEO's words are public record. I would bet you that those following the space only have the benefit of what comes from his mouth and do not put a whole lot of stock in what passes for due dilligence on these boards as it relates to Wave.
There is a public record that dosen't have the benefit of shareholders defending it in the real world, and I think this has hurt the company over the years.
You have a solution that we have no idea how many if any of the TCG groups are even employing.
You can say a culmination of a lot of foresight and hard work. What about the patents? I always see posts about this being the silver bullet of wave, but never see this mentioned as one of the reasons they have put themelves in this position.
This might be a case of still being standing with the patents that bring them home.
Something else for the longs to ponder-- When the stock gets knocked back the first thing that gets brought up is manipulation by the shorts.
Given the amount of bogus financial information-regardless of the reasons why, and given the number of deals in the pipe line, or given the numbers that could have been sold had I had them to sell that have been promised over the years, couldn't the argument be framed as the shareholders being manipulated by management as well?
I think there is a pretty good sample size to draw from- enough to couch the figures for some sort of upside surprise, but it has never happened. Yet this is not treated with the same disdain as short manipulation-even though management and the performance and disappointment play completely into the shorts hands.
I would say 50/50. I would bet even less if you don't see something by the end of summer.
It does seem like their time is finally arriving.
Many articles, many high profile breeches adding to the mountain that have come before.
There have been plenty of accusations lob at how this company has been run, what could have be done differently, what could have been.
What has transpired over the past week should make a difference in the company's fortunes.
If this does not, and that impact cannot be quantified over the next 6-12 months there can be no doubt-none- this company was failed by it's management and it's sales staff on a grand scale.
The demise has been predicted by many on the boards over the years. Many times just to get a reaction from the longs by others.
There have been criticisms lobbed aimed squarely at the managemnt and it's business practices to get reaction from the longs and by some to take the sting out of the losses they have suffered in their portfolios.
I think this is the first real test this company has faced-real test that has real consequences that shareholders long and short can agree on as a measuring stick.
IF,if they can make inroads because of these breeches the shorts won't be short any longer.
If they cannot monetize this, then what has to happen for them to capitalize?
This truly is the dawn of a new day, or the beginning of the end IMO.
Warbil,
I wrote about this years ago and got chastised for it, but it remains true to this very day.
You can find the answer you seek among any large business that has ever had a recall.
The product usually isn't rcalled until there is a fiscal pain threshild that has been crossed.
That fiscal pain threshold has yet to be reached. Whatever the reason.
Look at how many defective products are found in the marketplace and usually how slow they are to recall these products.
Many a discussion has been had with legal defense lawyers and they have told me on numerous occasions that there is an acceptable cost in cases like that.
While we see data breech and freak out, what is the true cost? Obviously there is compromised data. No arguing there.
There is a financial cost potentially.
Take any retailer or bank for instances. What is the real cost to them if they discover the breech shortly after it happens?
If they are lucky they cancel all the cards and issue new ones to the holders. If they catch it soon enough the financial liability is limited. Some people will never do business with that institution, some will be pleased they took action right away and others won't care. It's almost as if these types of things are accepted. Dosen't make them right.
The bottom line is these corporations are all multi-billion dollar entities. Until there is billion dollar pain to be felt at once, what is the catalyst to move their market?
You have the IT guys in place who don't know what a TPM is.
You have business with units in place that could be activated that don't know it, and you have the public with the most to lose that don't have any idea.
I saw a post that says Wave has made over 170 or se presentations since 1999 and 45 in just the last 22 months. The message hasn't translated to date.
Many people have stressed education and evangalizing the product.
For 6 years now that has been what's going on, and the ignorance level is still off the charts.
How many people's personal info has been compromised? How many accounts cancelled and new ones created with tweaks to the existing infrastructure? For how many years, getting worse each year and still no visible movement towards a wave enabled solution?
The tipping point is going to be a finacial loss of billions in one fell swoop. I can't see anything else as a catalyst.
Weby I am glad to see some of the water carriers start to deal in some reality finally. A lot of the apologists have made it very comfortable for those in Lee to walk around in the skin they are in because of the view many here have held them in. Embolden them I dare say.
The largest red flag for me came a long time ago when they continued to claim a leading roll in this trusted movement, yet would consistently miss the mark on their very own guidance.
It lead me to 2 conclusions, either they were misleading for some reason-maybe buying time to keep the shareholders at bay, or they didn't really understand the market as well as they would like everyone to believe.
There was always a huge disconnect between the results, and the reality-which is still very much in play today.
A lot of these questions and comments that hang in the air today were things many of us questioned many years ago and ended up getting driven from this very board. Many of us here were on the receiving end of some very vile private messages because of the opinions many of us had and the comments we made, didn't go in lock step. I think that frustration was reflected in the way this board was operated the last 3 years.
It will be interesting to see how/if the long timers start looking for results instead of empty promises how they are treated. Disdain is the first thing that comes to mind.
If this Dell deal does not include Wave, some very hard questions need to be asked by the faithful.
Jake I sold about .61 lower than the price is now and I took the one short position I ever held before that time and walked out about a little lower than I put in. I feel very fortunate to have gotten out when I did and down the small amount where I was. That was eased by the money I made in Jones Soda at the time that more than made up for the time lost that I had the cash sitting in the sidelines here at the time. That perspective has allowed me to keep an eye on this stock here and allow me the abillity to move in when it is ready to move, if it ever does, and not churn over the headfakes.
Lugan he said 2 years. Always an angle. Why so easy to bring that up. If we are going to go back on March 27th the split adjusted close was 143.81. Why not use that figure since most of the long wavoids are still here from that time............
Check your math Jake's Dad 600%? Don't think so.......
May 15th 2009 .77
May 16th 2011 2.77
less than half of what you state.
Don't bother coming back with a reply that it's a great gain.
It is, but to a wavoid investor not one long bought in to watch this stock go from .77 to 2.77-not one.
The only thing this gain did was allow more investors to plow more cash into this stock to average down.
600%? It's no wonder with math like that why most wavoids think they made it out of the red. I hope you remembered to figure your transaction costs in........whoops.
Buckner, the insider buying is a question I have posed for years.
The srgument you will get for and from SKS is that he participates in the ESP. Great. But when you get your salary raised yearly do you really feel it the same way you do on the pen market. When we have purchases for our 401K's automatically deducted from our paychecks do we think about that purchase the same way we would is we had to make that decision with cold hard cash in hand.? I think not and I think that's why you don't see the purchasing of the stock on the open market.
The unable to buy argument has chapped my ass for quite a few years.
I posted this years ago and will reprise it today. I started foillowing a pollution control company CECE years ago because I saw they were doing business in China and were announcing contracts quite frequently. I also noticed their insiders purchased quite often both direct and indirectly.
A few years prior they seemingly had tons of contracts announced but not so many over the time line accessed through yahoo, but you can see a good pattern of buying here.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=CECE+Insider+Transactions
Matter of fact going back 2 years you don't see 1 sell-not one
As far as not being able to buy-take a look here
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ce?s=CECE+Company+Events
Purchases on the day material events are reported in some cases.
The wavoids need to stop making excuses and realize they have more skin in this game than those running the show.
Jakes Dad you need to ask yourself this:
Well take a look at DELL since they are the big revenue driver for Wave and you ask why would DELL continue with Wave in the box.
Until I hear otherwise well say this year is the last year of the ammended agreement.
What incentive does DELL have to keep Wave in the box?
You have an emerging market that they are trying to position themselves in.
That is a true statement for sure. But.
What revenue implications are there for DELL to keep Wave in the box?
We know why Wave wants to be in the box, so it can drive other recurring revenue streams once people know what they can do with the Wave offerings.
The only incentive I can see for DELL is that the market driving more laptop and PC's sales because of the product being in the box.
Has that figure been high enough given the very glacial movement in this space.
Wave's future is truly in DELL's hands more than there own, regardless of the opportunity that awaits them. Anything else is hot air.
Titlewave,
One could also make the argument that based on the patents and interoperabillity, that these companies hedged their bets by including Wave in the box.
I don't think the relatively low cost, low risk to these companies can be discounted.
In an old post from 2007 I lifted from the CC per Sprague that the Dell agreement was extended through 2011. Would be interesting to note if that has been ammended since.
Jake
I can't argu any of that, but you said it yourself-the slow pace of adoption. One can go back 4 years ago and the same arguments hold true now. The only thing that has changed is the number of units that have been made available. Watch DELL closely. I fopund an old post from 2007 that said DELL had extended with Wave throuugh 2011 and here we are. Not sure if that has been ammended since though.
I think it was you who asked if I was short in a message that was removed. No I am not. I closed my position in August of 2007 at 2.01 a share. I watch like everybody else, waiting to see what happens. It's pretty liberating not letting a large position cloud my judgement.
PI,
This goes right to the heart of the break even, business at hand comments that have plagued this outfit for years.
To me it's pretty cut and dried-there are motives for making these types of statements.
You can repeat these sorts of things for awhile and then learn not to speak them as you get a feel for time lines and delays.
To continually spout these same things and have the same excuses again and again makes you look unproffessional, naive, and not very business savvy. It gives the impression of misleading your investors at the very minimum. Ity also leads me to believe the company has a wavering confidence in itself that they continually allow this crap to continue going forward. To me it gives the impression that they feel the need to throw a bone to the longs in the hope that something materializes.
I cannot deny they are making some inroads. But in no way, shape, or form stands up to what this company would have led one to believe to date.
Just scratched the surface Jake??
Yes 7.5 Milliom is a lot of money on it's own.
How much of that 7.5 Million is as a result of DELL?
The upgrades and servicing is where the hay is going to be made.
Can you deny that wave is a benefactor of their agreement with DELL? No
How big of an adevertising push have we seen touting Wave's product in DELL? I would say it has been non existant.
How huge has the upgrade revenue been as a result of the now hundred of millions of TPM in the DELL box among others already in the marketplace? Minimal
They are benefiting by just being in the box Jake. The lack of upgrades and servicing contracts bear this out. The numbers being reported in the quarterlies back this up. Until this changes, nothing in this company has changed.
And you calling somebody funny guy and other things does nothing to change that.
Couldn't agree more.
bspencer,
Very true and for years many people have focused on what the supposed longs in the know have said and discounted what actually matters-that being the performance of the company. I don't get your last statement in your post. The company has continued to continually make "mistatements" over a copurse of a numebr of years that are documented. One can say they may have been purposefully misleading. Or you can be on the side that says they wouldn't do that. If you are on that side of the fence then the argument can be spun to them not knowing the market as well as one would be led to believe. That is a whole nother problem if that is the case.
I think on the revenue end people need to stop focusing on the the total revenue picture and concentrate on the upgrades and servicing numbers. As DELL has increased the number of units with TPM availabillity it only stands to reason that there revenue numbers have increased, and increased substantially.
Those numbers have probably been fairly consistant all the way through.
Where wave is going to make hay has been virtually non existant in my eyes. Once again this can only point to not being as not knowing the market as well as one would be led to believe.
As far as the disconnect between the two camps in this stock Unclever had a brilliant post on this very thing on another board.
I think you have those who believe in the story and those based soley on what the number tell. Your ceo certainly has the story thing down cold.