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Somebody has to market the Reduce it label and pay for all the work Amarin has already done to get it this far.
Not to worry. He’ll be in his basement reading from a teleprompter. And no questions!
If you had their deals would you feel pressured to do otherwise?
That explains why GILD is paying $88/sh for IMMU and the market said $42 on Friday!
I think you mean O’Freudian!
Not a Senator. Not really an Irish company. But, hey!
Yes. The only reason you see two is because the earlier one is for the Q2 CC. Around the 1st of October, the September presentation will be taken down and replaced with the October presentation.
They update the investor presentation every month, whether they’re presenting at an event or not.
Larry Bird? An alibi!
You’re under appreciated BB!
The way he has his compensation package set up selling his options quickly strikes me as a person that knows the shoe could drop any moment. Neidermeyer would be proud!
It's not unusual for corporate executives to keep a residence where they work (NJ), while maintaining their permanent residence (CA). If this was a motivating factor for Kennedy to recommend and push for the 9th, he could be in for a tough ride. He could have thought he was connected or that it would be necessary for him to travel back and forth on the company's dime. I think Kennedy is a snake and he probably misled JT. That doesn't mean JT shouldn't have asked for a second opinion - but that's what seasoned CEOs do, so here we are!
It makes you wonder. I’ve asked IR for an explanation.
Amarin has reduced the number of people in the EU with CV disease from >80 million (per Q2 CC slides) to ~49 million in the September investor presentation. Huge drop, with huge potential drop in revenue. Incompetent management hard at work.
Warren Buffett’s got nothing on you.
Don’t expect The Sloth to do anything that’s bold.
No they didn’t.
I think you’re underestimating Thero’s penchant for diluting the stock while earning luxury suite tickets compliments of the underwriters.
The text was posted yesterday evening by Iriokabu. The indication comment was at the very end.
“Removal of FDA indications”, per Markman update. I know this has been mentioned here before, but being mentioned by Markman makes it more interesting. Assuming he means removing the Marine indication, leaving Reduce it. But does it really matter if the generics are just selling the drug to the pharmacies and they dispense what the doctor prescribes and insurance companies pay for? And, wouldn’t this affect Amarin’s current sales? What am I missing?
That’s sort of like I’m drunk, you’re ugly. I’ll be sober in the morning and you’ll be ugly the rest of your life!
Of Singer’s now 7-3 record in appellate court, how many (if any) went on to en banc hearings?
No NEW jobs
We got the beat down is more like it.
And then there’s the issue of available product. Thero keeps saying there isn’t any available for generics and Hikma’s CEO says its not a problem. One of those two is not telling the truth.
He does this on every stock board he posts on.
And in the case of multiple generics, would they be limited to a aggregated 5% or would they each be limited?
I’m waiting for someone to hit the ask!
JZ? You’re showing your age!
It would be interesting to see a ten year comparison of total US revenues with Amarin marketing Vascepa vs. no marketing and letting the generics (including Amarin’s generic) do their thing. I’m sure the company’s head strategerist Kennedy has that all down on a spread sheet!
JT is not a visionary. He’s an administrator.
Karim Mikhail
I'm beginning to think that Karim was hired as part of Thero's ruse to convince the investment community think Amarin really is planning a European launch while he goes about the business of securing the sale of the company. Karim's consulting company (Theodon) is still operating. Pay the man a significant sign on bonus while he goes through the motions waiting for JT to pull the trigger on a sell. Karim goes back to his consulting business with another significant departing gift and continues operating as if nothing ever happened. Has anybody seen Karim since Amarin's hire?
From Roth in April:
Our $31/share price target is derived from a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) analysis, based on: 1) $14/share for Vascepa in the U.S. (approved, $3.6B peak revenue); 2) $16/share for Vascepa in the EU (2020 launch, 100% POS, $3.1B peak revenue); and 3) $1 additional cash per share. We take our model out to 2030 and use an 6% discount rate.
We specifically arrived at $3.6B peak sales for Vascepa in the U.S. based on the following assumptions: 1) There are 7.8M individuals in the U.S. with elevated triglycerides levels above 150mg/dL and statin-controlled LDL-C levels between 40mg/dL and 100mg/dL, with an annual growth rate of 0.8%; 2) We anticipate an initial market penetration of 2.5%, rising to 12.1% in 2029; 3) We model an annual WAC of $3K. We utilize a gross- to-net adjustment of 15.0%. Impediments to our price target include clinical, financial, and regulatory risks.
We specifically arrived at $3.1B peak sales for Vascepa in the EU based on the following assumptions: 1) There are 11.3M individuals in the EU with elevated triglycerides levels above 150mg/dL and statin-controlled LDL-C levels between 40mg/dL and 100mg/dL, with an annual growth rate of 0.7%; 2) We anticipate an initial market penetration of 1.3%, rising to 14.5% in 2029; 3) We model an annual WAC of $2.3K. We utilize a gross- to-net adjustment of 15.0%. Impediments to our price target include clinical, financial, and regulatory risks.
As of December 31, 2019, AMRN had a cash balance of $644.6M.
$16 for EU
$1 for cash (and I assume the tax loss benefit) - should be closer to $2
Nothing for China, Canada, M.E. or the ROW - if they can put in a number for EU without it being approved, up and running, why not the other locations?
And throw in a few bones from U.S.
And we're trading at $4.20?
Come on, man!!!!
What happened yesterday was more disturbing than 3/30? Almost everyone thought Du would rule in Amarin’s favor. That was a sleepless night - right up there with 10/16/2013. Yesterday was expected - maybe not that quickly, but the odds of prevailing were nothing like those going into Du’s debacle.
So, I’m reflecting on the time since 10/2013 and the near death rattle we were hearing at 78 cents a share as we waited for interim looks to give us hope that an early stop would bring salvation. And time went on, until finally 9/24 arrived and the benefits of Vascepa were proven to the WORLD. That’s Amarin’s story!
This is a significant setback, no doubt. But if you look at the opportunities outside the US, the future is great. It’s been a long road and the jack wagons in the court system just ran Amarin into the ditch - but they will make adjustments and get back on the road and finish the trip. It’s tough right now seeing companies like Tesla and Apple creating tremendous value for their shareholders - while we sit and wait.
BB has complained frequently about the analysts not covering EU in their valuations. Now, they don’t have much choice. I don’t know if an apples to apples comparison is possible between the US and EU markets, but it seems that the potential patient population in the EU is greater than the US, so why wouldn’t the potential revenue be at least as good as the US if not greater? And if these analysts have had average PTs of around $31 while ignoring EU and the ROW, then something is amiss! So, I’m watching and waiting for more sharp pencils to start working on their new valuations.
Dog needs to take a whiz.
The only reason for pursuing this folly is to keep the generics on defense and not entering the market while they inch closer to EMA approval.
Keeps the attorneyometer running and Kennedy and JT don’t have the smarts to stop it.
Towards what?
The only question is who made the call?
Heart-On? Only if they’re going to give Viagara a run for their money!
Vascepa works for thin skin!