From Roth in April:
Our $31/share price target is derived from a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) analysis, based on: 1) $14/share for Vascepa in the U.S. (approved, $3.6B peak revenue); 2) $16/share for Vascepa in the EU (2020 launch, 100% POS, $3.1B peak revenue); and 3) $1 additional cash per share. We take our model out to 2030 and use an 6% discount rate.
We specifically arrived at $3.6B peak sales for Vascepa in the U.S. based on the following assumptions: 1) There are 7.8M individuals in the U.S. with elevated triglycerides levels above 150mg/dL and statin-controlled LDL-C levels between 40mg/dL and 100mg/dL, with an annual growth rate of 0.8%; 2) We anticipate an initial market penetration of 2.5%, rising to 12.1% in 2029; 3) We model an annual WAC of $3K. We utilize a gross- to-net adjustment of 15.0%. Impediments to our price target include clinical, financial, and regulatory risks.
We specifically arrived at $3.1B peak sales for Vascepa in the EU based on the following assumptions: 1) There are 11.3M individuals in the EU with elevated triglycerides levels above 150mg/dL and statin-controlled LDL-C levels between 40mg/dL and 100mg/dL, with an annual growth rate of 0.7%; 2) We anticipate an initial market penetration of 1.3%, rising to 14.5% in 2029; 3) We model an annual WAC of $2.3K. We utilize a gross- to-net adjustment of 15.0%. Impediments to our price target include clinical, financial, and regulatory risks.
As of December 31, 2019, AMRN had a cash balance of $644.6M.
$16 for EU
$1 for cash (and I assume the tax loss benefit) - should be closer to $2
Nothing for China, Canada, M.E. or the ROW - if they can put in a number for EU without it being approved, up and running, why not the other locations?
And throw in a few bones from U.S.
And we're trading at $4.20?
Come on, man!!!!
