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That's sad news. All the CEO can do is to list countries where people with diabetes live.
No talk at all about how the finances are near death.
At least he admits they're not competitive and the sales of Afrezza are almost nonexistent.
The turnaround's success can be measured by how far sales have fallen since the sales force was hired. Sales in 2016 were higher than they are now.
Get your facts straight. There was no murder in the house. First they coerced the owners to sign over the house by threatening them. Then they burned the house to the ground and said you don't really want it back now to you.
That's the past. The present is that every day preferred stock holders claim that they own a totally safe investment. All that needs to happen is that you agree to rebuild the house better than it was, in exchange for getting nothing in return.
Right now the shorts still own the stock, but have been unable to take it back down to its lows for a variety of reasons. Even the excessive naked shorting, daily short volume exceeding long volume, constant attacks and being on the reg short list (failure to deliver shares) hasn't been able to move MNKD's stock down.
I disagree with you. When you invest based on concrete information like that which appears in Mannkind's financial reports you don't worry about every few cents of share price change.
Last quarter Mannkind has 60.28% of the money it needed to pay its bills. That number is going to look worse when this quarter ends.
https://ycharts.com/companies/MNKD/current_ratio
For professional investors Mannkind takes about 30 seconds per 3 months to analyze. Pull up the 10Q and answer a few questions.
1. Do they have enough money to pay their bills -> NO.
2. Are they heavily in debt -> YES.
3. Do they sell Afrezza below its cost of production -> YES.
4. Even with the low price are sales horrible -> YES.
Here's a recent video interview of Mannkind's CEO Michael Castagna.
The audio is mediocre; there's an annoying hum from the ventilation system, and it starts off very very slow. But after a while Castagna explains the issues that Afrezza faces in the market.
Noteworthy:
1. He discusses how many people with diabetes were lost as patients because of titration problems.
2. He says that Exubera wasn't a commercial failure and that it was dropped when it had 1000s of patients. Since it had more patients than Afrezza he handled that well even if the accuracy was doubtful. He says that sales of Exubera might have improved.
3. He discusses the problems of getting wholesalers to carry the product since it has so little sales volume and requires special (refrigerated) handling
4. He discusses the poor pricing environment where everyone wants to make money (pharmacy benefit managers, etc.).
Edit: I was typing when Trend1 was making his post. We're both speaking about the same guy tweeting.
The story of an Afrezza spokesman.
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/03/08/933398/0/en/MannKind-Corporation-and-Charles-Mattocks-Announce-REVERSED-America-s-First-Docu-Series-Tackling-Diabetes.html
This is the guy who is making the movie Reversed about diabetes where Mannkind is claiming it will show its TV commercial.
Earlier today Charles claimed he should've gotten free admission into a diabetes meeting in San Diego. He went on and on claiming it was a conspiracy to stop a fantastic drug from getting known.
Then a few hours later he claimed to be bowling in Tampa Florida and posted the below picture.
Connecting the dots the bowling alley doesn't have a time/space portal into a diabetes meeting in San Diego. Why doesn't he pay for a ticket? Why didn't Mannkind pay for a ticket?
But it is passionate.
There are web sites where diabetics discuss their medicines and their care. Many of them are angered when shareholders show up pretending to be diabetics. What you call passion actually angers people who have diabetes.
Unless you actually have diabetes you come across as fake to real patients. All the articles where people can feel their Hemoglobin A1C changing minutes after puffing are recognized as fake.
And this is not coming from me, there are articles where shareholders are pleading with people not to make up stories on sites for diabetics.
Afrezza is dying based on actual data from medical trials that Mannkind paid for. Doctors who believe in anecdotes over science don't become endocrinologists.
Long story short: A SOC exists for a very good reason.
Personality I blame Al Mann for ignoring medicine and creating this cult of superiority.
This is a fascinating document. https://www.fda.gov/downloads/AdvisoryCommittees/CommitteesMeetingMaterials/Drugs/EndocrinologicandMetabolicDrugsAdvisoryCommittee/UCM390864.pdf
In it Mannkind (the sponsor) admits that most people who stop using Afrezza do so because they find it ineffective. Mannkind admitted that before the FDA approved it.
Ever since the poor first quarter report investors have wanted to increase their short position.
Given that Afrezza hasn't sold well for the first 10 weeks of this quarter, we're looking at a poor second quarter report in a few weeks.
The poor news has caused shorts to be willing to pay very high interest rates to be short when bankruptcy is declared.
Shorts will never have to cover, and the ratio is in fact totally irrelevant to the investors that can read financial reports and see that Mannkind can't continue to spend millions every month for almost no revenue.
Now that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have accelerated repayments to the Treasury, the mortgage giants would in a position to build substantial amounts of first-loss private capital, mostly though current GSE shareholders.
The government supposedly has 80% of the common shares. They want current shareholders to give away money that'll only be 20% theirs and 80% the government's money?
Or is the government going to provide 80% of the capital to match their share ownership?
IMO this proposal doesn't answer any important questions.
What incentive do shareholders have to replace capital that was taken from them?
I have a little doubt that people who bought stock at 2.43 per share are going to send 30 dollars per share to FNMA to recapitalize them.
Short interest is up by 1,895,309 shares.
Latest short interest 5/31: 25,804,478
Previous Short interest 5/15: 23,909,169
Lippes blamed lagging Afrezza sales on the relative small size of the drug-making company, MannKind, as well as the first inhalable drug, Exubera, which Pfizer introduced more than a decade ago, then pulled from the market in 2007.
That's a crazy sentence running those thoughts together, Mannkind and Pfizer are small?
Mannkind has spent over 2.7 billion dollars to prove that almost no one wants to renew their Afrezza prescription. How much is enough?
Pfizer is a huge company.
Sanofi, a huge company, ran national advertisements on Afrezza's behalf.
Why doesn't the doctor provide some pharmacological insight?
Why does every Mannkind news article that seems like it should be about the drug's benefits, look more like financial nonsense from someone who doesn't understand investing?
In Mannkind's FDA trial patients saw an A1c increase of 0.2 after 12 weeks. Maybe patients don't like spending lots of money to cough during meals, and have their A1c going the wrong direction.
You say Linda was not looking to the future
I don't have a theory about what's unknowable, the thoughts inside someone's mind. I'm discussing the CEO's ACTIONS!
What's important is that Linda ensures that she makes money no matter what the future brings. What's important is that Linda ensures that the people important to her, her toxic financiers, make money no matter what the future bring.
This was a horrible PR, by an unethical CEO. There's nothing surprising about the fact that the share price has subsequently cratered.
https://www.nwbio.com/nw-bio-closed-registered-direct-offering-7-5-million-institutional-investors/
What's most important is that when you register shares the SEC requires you to be honest. Under those terms there are few buyers for these shares. That's why she needed over three months to complete all phases of THE DUMP.
Actually it was a 4 day week and yes Doctors do take off Memorial Day just like pretty much all white collar employees.
In 2016 the week before Memorial Day when supposedly doctors are on vacation had 298 prescriptions, and the week of Memorial Day had 284. Average 291.
The two following weeks (6/10/2016 and 6/17/2016) averaged 275.
In 2015 the week of Memorial Day had prescriptions 93 higher than the week before. Of course that was when Afrezza had a competent (Sanofi-based) selling staff.
Sure, Linda knew for a fact that OS eventing was going to happen later than expected,
When I said that Linda and her financiers took no risks that means they neither thought about or care about the future. Their profits are not dependent on the results of the FDA trial. Not only did she not have to accurately predict the future, she didn't have to care about the future.
My best story is that when you get shares far below where they are trading you don't need to care about why they're trading where they are. You just care that Linda ensured that you make lots of money.
The fact that the she's giving shares away at 14 cents for a loan that came due when it was at 38 cents is no bigger scam than any of the rest of her scams.
I don't know why you believe that people who get shares at 14 cents each need to predict the future to make money.
What would be really beautiful is if all the dilution from this last year ended up being paid back to shareholders in 3-5 years
I think Linda's plan is best. She's looking out for #1.
She spread out the 11 million dollar loan repayment over 3+ months so that the people taking shares for debt have no risk. They recently got shares for 14 cents each. Think about how bad it would've been for them if they would've taken shares for cash all at once back when the price was 38 cents. They would've risked financial damage.
and financial damage done
Linda knows her check comes from the toxic financiers and she does everything she can to protect them and ensure they make lots of money NO MATTER WHAT.
You don't even talk about the fact that there might be an actual shipping business behind all this share buying and selling.
One thing I've noticed is that healthy companies are not 100% focused on financial maneuvering.
If George hired independent directors, and independent auditors and provided transparency into the underlying business --- and if the business is actually healthy the stock could skyrocket overnight.
Unfortunately that will never ever happen.
If you can say one positive think about Mannkind management it's that they've gone out of their way to teach people that.
Nobody in management is pretending they're on a runway and if they had a few more dollars they'd be able to take off some day.
They're busy methodically proving to everyone that all options are fruitless. Can't profitably partner, can't go it alone, can't sell technosphere, can't sell Afrezza in the US, can't sell Afrezza outside the US, TV doesn't matter, etc.
All the factual information about Afrezza is bad.
Example:
Rumor: Afrezza will get a new label and has no risks.
Fact: Mannkind asked for a restrictive label and asked for the label to request spirometer testing to be done.
My theory is that the facts will continue to win out, because doctors completely rely on them. They don't prescribe based on fanciful rumors.
I wish I could see the records and find out why the AFREZZA drop out rate was 95.5 % over the last 10 weeks.
From the FDA briefing document:
The sponsor, in this case Mannkind, said that people dropped out of the Afrezza FDA clinical trial primarily because of a "lack of efficacy". If it doesn't work, don't renew.
The completion rate for the 12-week treatment period was 68% with Afrezza TI+metformin, 73% for Afrezza TI alone, and 89% for secretagogue+metformin. The sponsor reviewed the reasons for discontinuation and concluded that the premature discontinuations were predominantly driven by lack of efficacy
Yet these two entities, which together form a vital part of the foundation of the home loan market in the U.S., will be running on zero capital by the first of next year. This dangerous reality is the result of a decision by senior officials in the prior administration.
It's like they set it up hoping for something bad to happen to justify their previous takeover.
Page 124 of the FDA briefing doc for Afrezza (UCM390864) indicated that the lower number of hypos on Afrezza was related to the fact that it had less glycemic efficacy.
Afrezza has never been able to demonstrate that it has fewer hypoglycemic events while at the same time providing as much blood sugar control.
There are very good reasons why doctors refuse to prescribe Afrezza, and tweets are not going to change that fact.
The short interest in NWBO is 4.9 million shares.
Last week the NWBO offered 37.5 million shares.
The penny stock managers at NWBO and the people they offer shares to, are the primary dumpers of this pig.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/NWBO/short-sales
Did you know over 80% of diabetics on insulin have A1C's over 7.0?
On the website you link to it says that 67.7% of the people on Afrezza have an A1C above 7.
It also says that Afrezza is half as effective as the much cheaper alternatives.
Please listen to Mannkind, Doctors do, that's why the drug is a commercial failure:
https://www.afrezza.com/hcp/safety-efficacy-studies/
After that go read Mannkind's financials.
http://investors.mannkindcorp.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1193125-17-166004&CIK=899460
How do the doctors not know of this?
Good news travels fast. Nobody wants to hear about Afrezza that's more expensive and produces inferior results to the competition.
Read about the studies Mannkind performed right here:
https://www.afrezza.com/hcp/safety-efficacy-studies/
How is it not promoted heavily?
That's really the same question. Promotion is very expensive, and it's hard to afford when you have a poor product that doesn't sell well.
That's an interesting theory. Possibly Linda just enjoys selling shares at a very low price in a company that she thinks is worth billions.
But that doesn't sound right to me. I'm pretty sure management is required by law to represent NWBO shareholders in the most positive manner possible.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/08/fiduciary-responsiblity.asp
shorts can hedge themselves by leveraging calls and it make things a lot less risky on their end.
Nobody is paying 70% interest to short, and at the same time saying maybe Mannkind will go to the moon, so I'll buy calls.
People are short because they have one of two beliefs:
1. Bankruptcy is coming
2. Massive dilution is coming
And they don't have any insider information. Mannkind is deeply in debt, it's continuing to lose money, and Afrezza is not selling well.
Mike C needs a partner with deep pockets or a boom in scripts.
They tried the partner thing. Now they're trying the go it alone thing. So far they've tried everything. It isn't management's fault that doctors are not prescribing Afrezza.
A couple weeks ago I visited one of the largest pharmacies in the Atlanta area (near where Sam AKA afrezzauser.com lives) and the head pharmacist had never even heard of Afrezza.
The company shared all the information they could about DC-VAX's likely success with investors and then sold 20 million shares at 14.54 cents each.
Given that their financiers they were given all the inside info about how the company is doing they've decided to dump their shares quickly before the next cash raise.
It has nothing to do with market-makers, the OTC, etc.
The only ray of hope is that maybe management is unable to understand how the trial is going.
No idea at all. As far as I know the children who have tried Afrezza have had no special problems but the trial was never completed.
Mannkind had a pediatric trial.
After months they were only able to enroll two youngsters.
They ended up suspending the trial.
Enrollment: 2
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02527265
This is the most important thing to know concerning Mannkind.
They started 2017 with 77.5 million in current assets and 92 million in current liabilities. They needed to come up with 14.5 million dollars to pay their upcoming bills.
After the end of the first quarter and spending three months trying to sell Afrezza they had 56.1 million in current assets and 93 million in current liabilities. March 31st they needed to come up with 36.9 million dollars to pay their upcoming bills.
Those are the numbers of a company that has a failed product and is going to go bankrupt.
No company can survive spending 21.4 million dollars every three months to go further into debt.
If you were deeply in debt, earned minimum wage, and spent 200 thousand a year, you'd go bankrupt. Multiplying those numbers by 400 and trying to sell an inferior insulin doesn't change that fact.
The #1 thing to focus on before investing money is risk. Institutional investors have entire departments of people devoted to it.
The fact that the risks are huge, and that nobody trusts George is a big reason the stock is where it is.
I don't agree that George is shorting, as that would likely be illegal.
Taking the time to read the SEC filings from beginning to end is very interesting.
I've quoted the SEC filing before where: George comes right out and says that because of his location it'd be very hard to punish him if he did something wrong.
If you're concerned about weirdness regarding Afrezza listen to this. Mannkind reports a drop of 0.21 in A1C after 24 weeks. He says it'll drop 2.0 in minutes after a "puff".
https://www.afrezza.com/hcp/safety-efficacy-studies/
My theory is that very few people buying Mannkind stock understand anything at all about Afrezza's (lack of) efficacy or Mannkind's (abysmal) financials.
The big market for afrezza is the T2. 70%+ not meeting an A1c goal of 7. Its very sad that 7 is the goal. Take one puff of afrezza when eating and most would be in the 5's. The beauty of afrezza with the T2's is follow-up dosing is nice but not as important as with the T1s. Since the liver glucose has been shut off on the first puff, even if they should be taking a follow-up dose and don't the pancreas will catch up.
Its simply a matter of time and Mike keeping the lights on until the market catches up. Al Mann was always ahead of his time. This time about 6 years. I am sure others who are a lot smarter than me and have a lot more money are seeing the same future. The question is Mike's ability to negotiate the NPV to meet what Al Mann saw as the value and Nate Pile places at $400 pps. It should take no more than pulling up Brandicourt's 2020 number based on a bumbling fumbling Sanofi. Put afrezza in the hands of Google or Apple and they should be able to double Brandicourt's number.
Read more: http://mnkd.proboards.com/posts/recent#ixzz4j3zvjSUt
Why are you mixing up "receivership" and "conservatorsip"?
That would be a good question for FNMA because their 8K regarding Conservatorship references HR 6521.
Here's part of the description of HR 6521: Empowers the Agency to serve as conservator or receiver of critically undercapitalized regulated entities.
In fact Gov told that FnF shares will be valid and will have market value pre and post Conservatorship."
Nobody questions that the shares have market value, are valid, and trade. But the government has made it clear that shares (common & preferred) don't entitle you to anything.
Here's what HR 6521 says:
Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the appointment of the Agency as receiver for a regulated entity pursuant to paragraph (2) or (4) of subsection (a) and its succession, by operation of law, to the rights, titles, powers, and privileges described in subsection (b)(2)(A) shall terminate all rights and claims that the stockholders and creditors of the regulated entity may have against the assets or charter of the regulated entity or the Agency arising as a result of their status as stockholders or creditors, except for their right to payment, resolution, or other satisfaction of their claims, as permitted under subsections (b)(9), (c), and (e).
FNMA confirmed that in their 8K regarding the Conservatorship:
The conservatorship does not eliminate Fannie Mae’s outstanding common stock or preferred stock; however, in accordance with the Federal Housing Finance Regulatory Reform Act of 2008 (the “Regulatory Reform Act”), FHFA, as Conservator and by operation of law, immediately succeeded to all rights, titles, powers and privileges of Fannie Mae’s stockholders with respect to Fannie Mae and its assets.
Mannkind has not even started their FDA-mandated safety trial.
They don't have the money to pay for it.
They're not going to get an improved label as a reward for not following the FDA's instructions.
Afrezza has a very very small number of long-term users and there's a long list of users who've reported negative side-effects.
Trust the data that Mannkind submitted to the FDA. They explain why Afrezza is a failure.
Trust the financials that Mannkind submitted to the SEC. They show that short-term debt exceeds short-term assets by 37 million dollars.
Trust the CEO when he claimed that their insolvency is getting 7 million dollars worse every month.
Trust that Mannkind sells Afrezza for 47% of the cost it takes to manufacture it, and that the more they sell the more they lose.
Trust that Mannkind was honest when they said they sold the insulin they had and that their inventory of Afrezza will only last a few months.
All the bad news is right here:
http://www.mannkindcorp.com/
There's even a link part way down the page where you can see the poor results that Afrezza has. They're conveniently located here:
http://www.AFREZZA.com.
I'm pretty sure I covered that issue.
Fannie Mae voted
LOL....9 MF'n YEARS ago, it was "discussed"?
Soon to be ten years, ...
And then September 6th 2007, Fannie Mae voted and decided to put itself into conservatorship. After Fannie Mae agreed to conservatorship FHFA took over.
Mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are "insolvent" and may need a U.S. government bailout, former St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole was quoted as saying in an interview with Bloomberg.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-fanniemae-freediemac-poole-idUSBNG6370020080710
Putting the government-sponsored enterprises into conservatorship is a means to prevent the lenders from going bankrupt, Paulson said,
http://www.foxnews.com/story/2008/09/07/us-government-takes-over-fannie-mae-freddie-mac.html
You show results from over 3 years ago.
Exactly right. We're in the final innings of a game where the outcome was easily predictable.
The fact that Afrezza was less effective was well-known many months before FDA approval. For the last three years doctors have known how effective Afrezza is. Therefore doctors don't prescribe it. Therefore Mannkind can't sell enough to breakeven. Therefore the heavily indebted Mannkind is on the brink of bankruptcy.
It's all based on how ineffective the drug was proven to be in FDA trial. Cause & effect.