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Divergence
Anyone trade divergence?
Regards,
Leap
Well,
I guess there are no thoughts here. Thought it might be interesting to see the results of synchrovesting an index fund and an inverse fund.
Guess there is silence before the storm.
When reading some of the results on other boards, remember the old axiom....bull markets make genius' of us all!!!
Regards to all,
Leap
Hi LC,
This months Active Trader magazine ran an interesting article on the topic of usinging inverse mutual funds to hedge investments in an index like fund.
The author achieved 40% a year growth using a basic timing strategy but instead of selling bought the inverse fund.
Check it out,
Regards,
Harlan
Who are you responding to? I do not see a Cliffod or a question that relates to your answer. Maybe another board??
Regards,
Leap
www.wealth-lab.com
I believe that December's issues had the study.
You are going to have to do some searching to find what you seek.
To paraphrase U2; "I still haven't found what I'm looking for"
Regards,
Leap
Hey Tom,
Don't lament your plea for help. Many of us have been at it for much longer than one year. There is no magic pill. Most practitioners of AIM do not let it run on autopilot, therefore it is not truly automatic.
Averaging down is a tricky affair at best. Pick the wrong instrument and you are doomed. Really does not matter what method you choose. If there is no bounce, you are in trouble.
Myst method is for short term trading and even though it is not pure AIM it does share some of the pitfalls.
I would recommend that you peruse the wealth-com web site or Active Trader Mag. There they have published a scaling methodolgy that has returned 25% per annum. HOWEVER, there were many instruments that had 11 consecutive buys before a sell. Can you stomach that?
Regards,
Leap
No problem, we go back a long way
Merry Christmas & Happy Chanukah!!
Regards,
Leap
Also there are inverse funds at Profunds.
Regards,
Leap
So how does one get a copy of the spreadsheet or the program or the manual.
Regards,
Leap
Don is driving down to Fla and probably won't be available for awhile.
Regards to all,
Leap
Hi LC,
I am familiar with fundpilot. I was on the original beta list. His track record is spotty though.
PPO is based on percentages therefore comparison to different tradeables is much more meaningful. Same is true of the same tradeable at different times. MACD histogram of a 60 dollar stock is much more likely to be greater than 1 as compared to a 20 dollar stock.
R squared is the coefficient of determination used in regression analysis. It is in any statistic text. Essentially if two series fall right on top of each other (are perfectly correlated) R squared =1 or 100.
Interesting theory of averaging down, although not practical.
What do you think of the Seasonality board?
Hope you are feeling well.
Leap
Hello Everyone!
Well, I have just taken a gander at Husky and ran VTSS thru the sychrovest engine. Sobering. Although Husky ruled both systems were dissappointing at best. Drawns were untenable, although in the end both could show a profit.
I have come full circle in my thoughts. These systems are becoming increasing complex to fly in the face of the basic traders axiom which is to never average down.
Why is it our nature to strive for this end? I believe that I am mentally conditioned to feel more comfortable averaging down that trading. Don't know why but I am open to suggestions.
My latest thought flows to Mysts MRI. An interesting concept. As I have pointed out to Myst MACD should be replaced by PPO for various reasons. There is also I high correlation among his variables. In other words %R and Stochastics are essentially the same. Just as a 14 period RSI has an R squared of .98 compared to a 28 day ema. So he is essentially measuring the same thing more than once which hoses up the weighting.
I do, however think the concept has merit. It is essentially the output of many Neural/Genetic algorithms. I am thinking of a technical composite that could be looked at once a week to take an all or nothing stance with a reasonable stop. No optimization would be allowed. The same system would be applied to all tradeables.
The beat goes on...
Regards,
Leap
Hello Everyone!
Well, I have just taken a gander at Husky and ran VTSS thru the sychrovest engine. Sobering. Although Husky ruled both systems were dissappointing at best. Drawns were untenable, although in the end both could show a profit.
I have come full circle in my thoughts. These systems are becoming increasing complex to fly in the face of the basic traders axiom which is to never average down.
Why is it our nature to strive for this end? I believe that I am mentally conditioned to feel more comfortable averaging down that trading. Don't know why but I am open to suggestions.
My latest thought flows to Mysts MRI. An interesting concept. As I have pointed out to Myst MACD should be replaced by PPO for various reasons. There is also I high correlation among his variables. In other words %R and Stochastics are essentially the same. Just as a 14 period RSI has an R squared of .98 compared to a 28 day ema. So he is essentially measuring the same thing more than once which hoses up the weighting.
I do, however think the concept has merit. It is essentially the output of many Neural/Genetic algorithms. I am thinking of a technical composite that could be looked at once a week to take an all or nothing stance with a reasonable stop. No optimization would be allowed. The same system would be applied to all tradeables.
The beat goes on...
Regards,
Leap
Hi Don,
I would love to see it. You have my address as well.
Regards,
Leap
P.S. You are closer to the holy grail than most realize .
Thank you for your time! So as I understand it, you are allowing for three consecutive buys before you dip into the "saved" monies. This is effect allows you to average down for a longer period of time, unless you have reallocated your funds.
Regards,
Leap
Thanks Adam! I have sent you a private E-Mail.
Regards,
Leap
Steve,
Can you walk us through a series of trades from beginning to end. Since you just started one up maybe that would be possible. I would like to paper trade using your spreadsheet. I must be getting dense in my old age and am ashamed to call myself an engineer but I cannot make sense of your spreadsheet although I understand the concept.
Thanks!
Thank you. It appears to be AIM not synchrovest. I will study and get back to you.
Regards
Hi Karw,
Could you send me the spreadsheet at leapyear92@yahoo.com?
Thanks!
P.S. What is stacked LIFO? (I know what LIFO is )
Ah..therein lies the rub, you see
What do you guys think about low down AIM? Not sure that I can see an advantage over Synchrovest.
Regards,
Leap
Check the website. It is 125. download the trial and order it from there.
Regards,
Leap
Why AIM it from there. Why not sell at a 50% profit and start again?
Regards,
Leap
Hey LC!
Yep. The problem with altering buypoints is that we start to lose the mechanical nature. Also, it is harder for annuity style investing than for lump sum.
One of the reasons that Synchro works so well is that it has a constant influx of money to keep that average cost down. What one could do is allocate the $100 per period but only invest it when there is an oversold condition. Problem is what is oversold tends to stay that way; likewise for overbought. So how to split the allocation?
One thing I learned from my trading days is that there is no holy grail...as much as we techies want to believe that there is. The pschology of following a well thought out plan is much more important. That is one reason I am not in favor of optimizing for a given instrument.
Thanks to you we all know that 100% was a miscalculation and the optimal point is in the 50% zone. In the case of jibes XYZ tradeable, the difference between 50 and 30 was negligible.
I have spent a great deal of effort trying to merge TA with AIM. In the early days Myst posted some of my ideas, such as monitoring the equity curve to switch AIM on and off.
Bottom line: It is a lot easier on the pyschy to send in $100 and live with a drawdown that to watch 50-66% evaporate.
If you study several AIM portfolio's over time you will find out that they perform poorly. There is a script on wealth-lab that proves this.
I am wondering if it is possible to hedge using this method. That will be my next task when time permits.
Regards,
Leap
It is not black and white; depends on your settings. Let's just say 11% vs 56%.
Unbelievable huh?
Regards
Leap
P.S. Don't forget this is $100/m as opposed to a 10K outlay (50/50).
FWIW,
Just completed a comparison of Jibes DDCA and Synchovest using Jibes spreadsheet co. XYZ. Dare I say it...not even close. This was at $100/week.
LC, I am really not concerned with Cash Burn using Synchro. It is AIM that has the torch. . Since the pipe is never dry, cash burn is not an issue.
I need to keep studying. Still find it hard to believe.
Regards
JimBob,
Your url is hosed. There is an extra w. Also, your site appeares to be down.
Regards,
Leap
Hey LC,
I can't find a guide to your new spreadsheet. Is there one?
Regards,
Leap
If you get a copy, please share with the group.
Regards
I am on sabatical. Looking to evolve this board into something more useful.
Leap
Hello....
Hey there Don,
Well I never expected AIM to creep into this thread.
Just goes to show...you can run but you can't hide!
I am shocked at the recent action. Been away on business and trying to catch up.
Great stuff!
I do now!
Thanks, I have been reading your posts for years at SI.
Boy! Have I been asleep at the wheel!!
I agree with your assertions. However, it was his long term holding that he had forgotten about that saved his A$$ets. Without that and a bit more luck mentioned in the book, he would have reached insolvency.
Notwithstanding, that does not detract from your remarks with which I concur!!!!
The book is great entertainment value but that is about it.
After reflection, one could draw the conclusion that Darvas was very lucky. And is often said, it is better to be lucky than right.
Thanks for the links, they were all I could dig up as well.
Unfortunately, you were amongst the few to express interest in Mr. Darvas so I will continue to monitor to see if things perk up. Otherwise I will let this thread R.I.P.
Thanks for your time!
Hey Leap,
Do you enjoy talking to yourself?