Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
come on green! you can do it! the stock that could.....
Cal - lets apply some logic here, shall we?
if it grew exponentially and unstoppable from 80k cases then we would be at 800k cases in china by now. And that size pile of shit you would not be able the hide.... so again, for the third time i point out on this board - to go from 80k cases down to a few per day tells me that covid19 can be more than controlled with the proper measures.
well said duke -
yes, of course depends upon our ability to marshal our efforts.
been an american for 50 years now (came for india as a kid); and if I have learned one core thing about this country in the 50 years i have been here is that we dont always get it right the first time but once we marshal our resources and efforts, we always end up delivering the goods. Prime example from the last century of course was ww 2 with our industrial mobilization that was for example, cranking up, just in the bay area, one ship a day;
this covid business, in so many ways mimics wartime footing - in the economic sense, personal safety of ourselves & loved ones, economic ramifications; people will get it & realize whats at stake; i just dont see us being flippant and allowing this to turn into a full blown disaster.
I agree we cant be flippant.
However, when I see China go from 80K cases to only several new cases per day, I see tremendous hope. again, i cannot emphasize this enough, if you have say 10k or 12k cases like s korea or italy, and then control it, it is not as impressive as going from 80k cases down to a few new ones per day; this indicates despite its severe contagiousness the spread can be controlled, even in a place with limited health care resources as china.
i believe s korea and soon italy will soon cosntrol it, max 12 or 15k cases in a nation with 60 million+ people; bodes well for us - we will do whatever it takes as a nation i am sure to zap this; why people talk about 500K hospital beds being needed i dont get it; china a nation of 1.4BB people only had 80k cases, now down to 15k active cases; and we are going to end up with 500k cases? no way! we will figure it out.....
Montana - you are correct.
we can talk about how many more cases we would have found if we had more testing, etc. but you cannot hide the number of deaths due to coronavirus, you just can't - and so the truth of the matter is that in a nation of 300MM we have had 37 deaths.. Kiwi might argue this is not about the deaths but the burden to the health care system - but if there is a 2% mortality rate, we cannot possibly be only having 37 deaths with thousands and thousands of carriers already - something is not adding up;
yes, this is serious and can potentially get out of hand ala Italy (800 deaths in a nation of 60MM); but italy is handling things seriously now, I am sure you will see the number of cases come down;
again, not saying its serious for elderly, etc. but being way overblown
FFS -
"Michael - In my opinion, we have ventured in to a whole new set of conditions that will pressure AMRN stock no matter what. If the case ruling is favorable, it will likely pop and drop. "
how much more pressure? from SP of 12.60 to 12 to 11 to 10? pop then drop back to 10 post-trial? eventually price dislocations get rectified and sync back up with the fundamental story; the most dangerous thing a longer-term AMRN investor can do right now IMHO is to switch to another beaten down stock; excessive switching & buy n selling inevitably leads to disaster - the noise will kill you;
4.5BB market cap vs JT prepping up for 5BB peak sales - I will take my chances with JT longer-term; your only other option is to venture into the wilderness by taking your losses & switching to another beaten down stock; you just might pick a loser and see your prior AMRN holding take off....
good news is that despite SP touching 11.59 we are still standing here; not much to lose now with market cap at 4.5BB provided the IP trial goes as planned; if I have to hold thru the economic cycle, so be it! eventually the chart will retrace back up, plus more...
no worries.... times like these are why you never want to apply reason with the SP -
lets see now, several months back, prior to adcom resolution, prior to clarity of issues (at least) on the IP litigation, prior to acasti & epanova blow up, we were at 17 to 23 range;
aside for the macro market conditions, there is clearly manipulation of SP going on, plus forced selling on the part of institutions; key point is to keep an eye on the peak sales of $3-5BB MINIMUM vs the market cap; eventually the market cap will catch up - it has to so long as AMRN executes ....
yea, flash crash ... coming back a bit. lets see...
what happened to sp last few minutes? anyone?
the covid19 blues tonight - yet trying to look at the medium to longer term brigher side of things:
1. I certainly don't think the mortality rate will be high enough towards the immuno-compromised (Cardio patients, diabetics) for it to sap away the candidate population base for Vascepa! (as someone had posted earlier). I refuse to believe things will get that worse - for ex, keep an eye on the second derivative - that is to say, the rate of change in the number of new cases by country; in china this has been going down for a few days.
2. NOW FOR THE GOOD NEWS - after this covid first round scare is over, this will scare the dickens out of most existing cardio & diabetics to take care of their disease & manage it properly; a new impetus within the patient population to manage optimally so that they wont continue to be susceptible to corona & related viruses; a mindset change within that patient base post-covid19 not to allow their condition to dangerously immuno-compromise themselves creating susceptibility to the next round of covid & related viruses; which means focusing strongly on preventative care/their meds that will put V in the marketing limelight & a household name for taking in addition to statins.
would welcome feedback/thoughts?
feedback to kiwi - have some idle time right now ......
"Explanation for 42% drop in PPS since label expansion
1) Sell the news ...many hold positions until trial read outs , deals announced , labels expanded ....and then sell
100% agreement
2) The law suit not being settled . There is always risk in going to trial . There apparently was a mandated settlement conference but for whatever reason ...no settlement . However MOST analysts expected a settlement of some kind.
100% agreement - lack of settlement like a slow leak on PPS as time progressed; not even epanova/acasti bust could make a dent;
3) Late Dec the market was near or at all time highs. AMRN is not completely independent from moves in the major indices . ETF's / funds need to sell if over all selling in their biotech funds forces them to raise cash
you are incorrect. AMRN PPS began to tank well, well before SPY/XBI did; while the ETFs were continuing to make highs, AMRN PPS day after dayi either stagnated or went down. Of course, once ETFs/market tanked, AMRN went further down, from about 18 to 14;
4) The warnings regarding the COVID 19 spread in China and the implications of what that would mean here ...to our markets , economy and health care system if we faced a similar situation . This generated a general " risk off " tone .
100% agreement
not a matter of them fudging or us trusting the data anymore - again, starting from 80k cases if it was truly uncontrolled, it would have jumped to, say 120k or 150k cases or even much more; so we should be reasonably assured that things are moving well and in the right direction in china...
kiwi -
agree with JL on the covid issue; you have to look at the rate of increase in new cases in china; if you can go from 80K cases and subsequently lower the rate of new cases, that says it all; as per JL, if this was airborne, it would have been so much more serious and no way starting from 80k cases (repeat, the massive 80k cases), that they would be down to only 40 new cases per day or in vicinity;
BTW, i had a cardiologist friend over for dinner on saturday. very innovative, he has a patent on a stent procedure that has already been FDA approved, he & partners are working on the commercial aspects;
he also knows about V and especially bhatt; his understanding is the ACC event in chicago will be done via webinar; some of the speakers had pulled back on attending, etc. cannot say what impact that would have on V given the peer-to-peer dinners will not happen, etc....
i believe AMRN is going to be my third victory coattailing perceptive advisors of recent - bought GBT at 42 late december 2018, sold at 80; big gains in NBIX last year too. I believe AMRN will be another hit, a greater than two bagger for me, can't be certain about the timing though....
BB - you are not quite right:
" You believe in the magical buyout unicorn “next Monday”...you think a magical window opens after “decision” but before ANDA appeal? You believe a PFE-like leprechaun riding a magical green unicorn comes in with an amazing offer during the 60 day appeal window? "
don't NECESSARILY believe we will have BO offer in short order. I am simply refuting those in the BO section who expect JT's conduct & wordings to be different than what they are, and are disappointed thus far (e.g. markipeach); in a rush to see a BO, they are certain in their ASSUMPTION he is not being proactive enough - my point is that behind the scenes he may well be in talks, if so he is certainly not going to show his cards, he would continue to emphasize GIA as camaflouge;
critique of JT has increased in some circles as the market tanks & the anxiety of the decision getting nearer. BTW, of the 500 bios to pick from right now, if I were to put new money in, hands down it would be AMRN at this price; just dont expect a linear increase in price, even post-trial victory;
to all the folks who are looking for a quick BO AND keep blaming JT for a GIA strategy:
the window for a potential BO has not even opened yet, currently being pre-patent ruling; so, the only way for a BO to come into fruition is post-patent ruling; so, what do you expect him to say at this point in time, what should he allude to - "hey folks, we got AZN & Pfizer lined up, once we get over the patent ruling, I will get back to you..";
my broader point is that BO can only occur post-patent ruling; and of course JT has to go about very discreet re any upcoming potential offers - he would have no choice but to camaflouge his intentions/actions, and of course part of the camaflouge would be to claim a GIA strategy and explain details. Not saying a BO is imminent, but my point is if you are a BO fan, there is no reason to criticize JT for a sin he has not committed - if there is interest I am sure he will do the right thing - i am sure he realizes there is eventually a patent cliff for this one drug company, etc.... its all in his equation; no need to get frustrated & blame him; patience .....
he might not be Mr. excitement during presentations but he ain't no fool. what I truly like about him is that he is very methodical - he likes to tackle issues in sequence, in series, and has explicitly says so over and over again; last Fall it was getting label expansion; right now its US launch. post-trial it will soon be EU approval/launch; one thing at a time and he always delivers the goods....
Lemmi - imho the Chinese have done a remarkable job in containing covid; they went from 80k cases down to 22k, with latest day only 99 new cases; to emphasize - 80k cases is massive! to be able to contain covid from 80k down to where no cases is less than 100 is nothing short of remarkable. say what you will about the communist govt's draconian methods, etc...
i am more ticked off about our own shit show here - cdc is becoming a replay of hurricane katrina/"brownie you are doing a hell of a job" moment; not enough test kits when they themselves were warning its only a matter of time before it arrives here.. this is terrible...
absolutely agree Jerry....
if I recall from reading his markman advisors article from a couple of months back, he kept mentioning that the generics issue would continue to linger on indefinitely - I don't remember tghe specifics but I was skeptical;
perhaps he provided the raw material for MRC? I just dont think MRC by himself has the legal brainpower to even put the jibberish that he did a while back, he had to get his ideas from somewhere, might very well have been Markman, so its the same lawyer!
by the way - in the list of folks I mentioned with a very positive outlook re. amrn chances, I forgot to mention BB & perceptive! remember there are 500+bios that perceptive could choose from to be part of their top 10 positions - they are small enough to have completely liquadated amrn if they wished to - and i am sure they would have if they had doubts....
if I remember from probability class, the prob of BOTH 55% AND 60% events happening is only approx 32% (.55 X .60); that can't be right for amrn chances? am I missing something wrto this lawyer's assessment?
key point is that the lawyer is the same as Markman advisors; he was always skeptical, i had read his articles a couple of months back, so this might be a roundabout way from him to move from negative to neutralish so he could save face post-judgment?
would be interested to hear about the probabilities I mention, so counter to the rest of experts, amarin lawyers/mgmt, yee/jeffries, cowen, others, plus our illustrious board; not to mention what the judge was leaning towards to begin with; I am going with Hamoa & Marjac!
I can't believe that! leave it to goldman .....
correct. 5 of us comprised the fund of funds. without going into all the personnel, the two folks in charge of marketing were will mcdonough (Tom Brady's agent at the time & best friend); and Tom frechette (previously sr. pres bush's press secratary/mentoree after pres bush retired); tom brady also did some marketing for us - lasry is very sports oriented, he currently owns the milwaukee bucks. dont mind divulging all this as this is public info....
will recently attempted to start a blockchain company with gary cohn & marc lasry's blessing (public info, cnbc article on it); the company is no more....
closed several years back. What's that got to do with our discussion at hand?
not giving economic advice - simply a negation of anyone who believes they can CONSISTENTLY time the market & economic cycles; and an affirmation of why they call economics the dismal science for a reason.....
BTW, my boss, the sr portfolio mgr at Avenue capital's fund of funds (I was the risk mgr), he worked under Mohamed El-Arian earlier while at Harvard Endowment. And so as a matter of curiosity I have been folowing El-Arian's comments/advice on media for many years - considered by many on WS to be one of the foremost economist/macro-strategist in the world. And his record, quite frankly has either been atrocious, or else he manages to evade a direct forecast; the only time i have heard him give a concrete market forecast was a week back when he predicted a market debacle due to coronavirus......just food for thought....
good luck
Kiwi - dont bet on a reflexive "sell the news" AMRN SP behavior every time as per Dec post-approval. AMRN might kick the habit when you least expect it. No one can consistently time the market or an individual SP, especially one as noisy in short-term as AMRN; its one thing to average up or down, its another to try to time it & be heavily in or out based upon your hunch. Easy to get off the train & never catch it again...
BTW, Yee/Jeffries are inclined towards your opinion - a couple of days back they pointed out the possibility of a pop post-trial win but then a fade, but they too I believe are being biased due to recent SP historical behavior.... NBIX comes to my mind from three years or so back - in a channel between 40 and 50 till it broke out above it, never to look back.
futures are up - interesting...
according to worldometer site, new covid cases in china down to 202 wheras in s korea its up, 476; active cases in china down to 32k only (s korea approx 4k); draconian or not, looks like the communist party was able to control the spread. bodes well for the rest of the world in the sense they prove its manageable & hopefully the world economy/markets can get back to biz;
like i have been saying all along, I am hoping this is a 2 quarter thingie like the Japan 2011 earthquake, a mild global recession & then a V rebound; all we need is the spy to inch back, month by month, three quarters of the way to the top it was just a couple of weeks back; at least stabilize for the rest of year; might be a very premature call on my part but in that context AMRN should kick ass.
will refer you & Postes to Marjac's excellent post yesterday....
he pointed out, given JT's record of conservatism, you shouldn't expect him to suddenly become Riverboat John the gambler taking reckless risks. His judgment is sound and if you are an AMRN long, implicitly you have already been putting your faith into his judgment, so why should now be any different.
And despite his prudence, like any great CEO he takes calculated risks - after all didn't going thru reduce-it trial involve a risky proposition; i am sure he has done his probability assessments here; he has much more to lose than most of us...
one scenario: if he/his legal team deem chances are greater than 99% of complete win, and ONLY via a complete win a potential BP has indicated to AMRN they will have potential future interest, what would you be tempted to do?
BB -
"An appeal will completely take BO off the table."
Like so many on the board I would disagree but your thought out opinion has to be respected.
However, even if your scenario of no BO due to appeal comes true, it only changes the path and/or timing of a potential BO, not the likelihood of an eventual BO, if there is indeed otherwise an interest. In other words, if you are a patient investor, you will be rewarded with a BO if everything else false into place in any event - just gets delayed.
Just think about the economics at that potential point in time - if there is a 20BB+ impending offer on the table 8 months from now for ex, this whole generics issue would have withered down to the point where AMRN would settle for the relatively neglible amount as compared to the BO offer; time is not on generics' favor.
TM100 - IMHO the good news is that ...
with or without post-ruling settlement & with or without generic appeal, AMRN will be in such a position of strength that this whole generic issue will wash away in terms of:
1. PPS (even if some retails will remain leery, enough smart money/tutes will insure a healthy PPS going into the many upcoming catalysts)
2. of lingering concern/risk any longer to any potential suitor if we are fortunate to have one. Not so much prior to the trial outcome.
couldn't agree more with you.
here we are with release of court docs last night that is of MONUMENTAL significance to our AMRN investment; the covid-19 issue is transitory and tangential to your investment in the LONGER TERM; the IP trial will have a permanent impact.
BB - 100% disagree with you..
per study's post:
"As far as the inducement goes, it still weights in favor of AMRN IMO but there are 2 or 3 things which this really hinges on I believe. One is that FDA’s review of Vascepa in the Marine trial design recognizes severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHT) as a chronic condition which generally has a genetic predisposition (#1 on the list) See paragraph 301. I recommend reading the entire paragraphs of 298-313 . When we got FDA approval for the Marine trial in those with trigs greater than 500, the FDA verified that SHT is chronic and did not require AMRN to place a time frame on the label other than at least 12 weeks since it could be used for the duration of a patient’s life. If it was to be used for a shorter period of time the Usage section would have made special comments on this. The generic label will encourage chronic use (at least 12 weeks of use) as described in paragraph 314-319 under section, “FDA Approved VASCEPA for, and Accordingly Would Approve Defendants’ ANDA Products for, Long-Term Use”. "
Generics argument is that just like someone akin to having a one-time trauma injury in a part of body requiring a one-time antidote, just give her the antidote for 12 weeks in combo with diet & exercise; but in our case, this is not akin to a one-time trauma: as per above study comments, :
One is that FDA’s review of Vascepa in the Marine trial design recognizes severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHT) as a chronic condition which generally has a GENETIC PREDISPOSITION (#1 on the list) See paragraph 301.
just relax, IMHO this is headed towards an overwhelming victory! no credibility left after judge DU's decision....
would love to hear from our legal panelists on this board...
regardless of appeal being deemed frivolous or not...
market is clever enough not to penalize SP due to an appeal. Given the Teva settlement and with this court win, the generics issue will be put to rest once and for all, even in context of ongoing appeal. Nor will it impact a potential suitor's decision, if we are fortunate enough to have one lined up. IMHO.
Hamoa - thank you for all your trial related posts going back to last fall; in one of your posts from last fall, your assessment that V will be integrated with statin in one capsule (and the strategic implications of it) was food for thought;
loved your analogy from back then with the Microsoft DOS system in terms of marketing; (statin powered by V inside analogous to hardware powered by MS DOS inside);
jeremy on cnbc right now...
said that 90% of the value of a stock is its profits AFTER the next 12 months; geez, I am shaking in my boots when I think about that wrto AMRN!
BTW,
I dont believe we have panicked sellers (amrn specifically). Its just algorithms and shorts who are explicitly targeting AMRN. If you look at other bios yesterday, while AMRN down 7 pct or whatever, NBIX only down 1 or 2 pct. ditto for so many others.
rafrun - I am underwater right now, like many. I hate this sell-off naturally...
And I have criticized JT for being dispassionate in CCs, etc. He is not perfect. But my suggestion to him right now would be to do or say nothing. Remember, PPS went from 23 to 13 during summer and he was always honest despite knowing the PPS would temporarily tank.
He strikes me a a very honest & goal-oriented CEO who likes to take things in series, prioritize one item at a time; prior to adcom decision, he explicitly said he cares only about making sure adcom concerns are addressed & handcarry thru the approval process if necessary;
right now, his priority, aside from the trial of course, is the US launch. Thats it! no concern if PPS temporarily tanks, & no concern that EU valuation is not being incorporated into PPS yet; he doesn't give a rat's ass...... and I agree with his execution.
BioMike -
hi single digits in 3 weeks? that's a hell of a doomsday scenario; anything is possible, but that sounds bizarre, maps to 3.5BB market cap; for a company that is projected for peak annual revs of 3-5BB min.
this whole period in market is starting to remind me of Jan/Feb 2016 when markets tanked and many bios lost 50% of SP only to recover swiftly & move beyond;
Great post, thx..
what i dont get is how..
the rate of new infections & deaths in China is decreasing despite the massive and varied characteristics of the infected base (including geographical spread), yet how persistent the virus is in places like Italy & Korea; you would think all of China would be burning yet it seems to be on its way to be controlled despite the massive numbers, 75k infected base;
if the china figures on new infections are to be believed, then I don't see how coronavirus could have a severe impact anywhere ex-china that does not have the 75K infected base to begin with; and yet we hear of cases like North Calif where its a mystery community spread. Something doesn't seem to add up.
kiwi - i think you are still misunderstanding:
not trying to buy/sell additional AMRN shares. to take an extreme example, suppose by this Oct AMRN is doing a run rate of 1BB revs; but by Oct SPY is also at 220 instead of current 312; what would AMRN SP be in that scenario? perhaps at 16 despite rave company-specific performance?
instead, if SPY cycles into a downturn now for next couple of months, then turns around as the broader global economy recovers V-shaped from coronavirus, so by Oct SPY returns to 340-350, that is a much better scenario for us folks who continue to hold, AMRN SP might be 30+ by then;