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Despite a flat night on the ASX, RCEL continues to be steadily accumulated today. Perhaps a new significant holder announcement soon...
RCEL up 4% today on strong volume despite a red market... another sign that the ADR is currently being accumulated.
I'm not arguing that someone couldn't make significantly more $ trading RCEL as opposed to buying/holding. The point I'm making (which your post highlighted) is that it is near impossible to time the peaks/troughs to do so, which is why trading isn't necessarily a better strategy than buying and holding assuming you see the stock being notably higher 1-3yrs out (as I do). Depending on how much of your position you are trading, a re-entry target that never comes could mean lots of missed $$ gains. Example would be the countless traders that watched AVMXY go from $2 to $4 in 2 weeks in March that sold expecting a chance to buy back lower... that opportunity so far has never transpired. Will we see your $7.50 target again? Maybe, but maybe not.
For tax purposes I believe it is trade date that matters.
Some nice accumulation today. Somebody doesn't want to be left out in 2020...
Nasdaq just released the latest short data as of 12/13. From 11/29 to 12/13, RCEL outstanding shorts went from 527K shares to just over 1million. For their sake, I hope they cover before the next earnings release.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/rcel
I had invested but ultimately sold my shares after realizing the low valuation appears to be due to concerns over how long XINITITY revenues will be likely to continue for. Pfizer has a genetic treatment for Hemophilia B that is currently in phase 3 trials. The results have been very positive so far and their treatment would likely dominate the market since one dose lasts for 1yr+.
I noticed that quote too. Very interesting... I wonder if Dr. Perry is aware of any interested suitors yet.
Nice article. Dr. Rae says "Recell is a game-changer" and I couldn't agree more.
While I'm not into trying to predict very short-term moves, now that we have moved above the short-term resistance at $8.40/50 I think we'll continue trending up in anticipation of 1/31 sales announcement.
Looks like the market makers want her to cool down this morning, but they may have a tough time seeing that someone just scooped up 40k shares.
Nice quote at the end from Dr. Foster (director at one of the largest US burn centers) that sums up Recell nicely. He also mentions that Recell is now part of their standard of care.
"It's quick and easy, and it works really well."
I'm thinking we rally into the Q4 sales announcement, noting that we just broke above the short-term resistance line as drawn from the prior two peaks. Add in some potential short-covering and we could really be flying.
Did the AGM presentation offer an updated timeframe? Back in March when Avita announced the collaboration with Cosmotec they said Japan approval was expected to take 9-12 months, which would translate to Nov to Jan.
Someone over on HC posted this interesting interview which explains how Cosmotec came to acquire the exclusive rights to sell Recell in Japan.
https://www.link-j.org/en/interview/post-1790.html
While I wouldn't bet on pediatric burns approval or Recell approval in Japan coming before Q4 results, either of these announcements very well could come any day now.
AVH trading at $0.63 right now ($8.65 RCEL) on good volume. Looks like the RCEL shorts will have a tough decision to make tomorrow...
I double dare em to double down ;) They're going to have to buy them all back at some point... whether they want to do that at $8.40 or $10+ is their choice. With continued strong revenue growth over the coming quarters almost guaranteed, this latest consolidation is positioning the stock for a continued run.
Looks like a shorter may be trying to keep it below resistance. There are about ~500k shares of RCEL short as of 11/29 (most of them opened during the Cramer pop) not including the AVH short position. Will be interesting to see how much money they are willing to put on the line before throwing in the towel, as it is only a matter of time before this breaks out as evidenced by the buying volume on today's pop.
Yup, you could tell it was getting coiled and was ready to go (same with AVH trading last night). Nice surge in volume too. Looking great for the new year!
AVH has been trading in a tighter range as well, bumped up against $0.60 all night so far. No one knows for sure once the accumulation/consolidation will wrap up, but this thing surely is getting coiled up and ready to run sometime soon IMO.
It should be out in the evening of Jan. 30th US time.
RCEL is hugging the short-term resistance line right now as drawn from the prior two peaks. As this latest consolidation nears an end, it is only a matter of time before it makes the next leg up in anticipation of Q4 sales numbers. We could see it head south once more to hit the bottom of the triangle, but a breakout doesn't seem far off.
The AVH shorts appeared to have covered on Friday based on the unusually large volume seen on the Chi-x.
Great investors think alike! I make it a point to google for recent recell/Avita mentions every day.
I've been getting a lot of false positives though ever since they opened up the "Recell" battery recycling plant in Argonne France...
Recell in the news again...
This is the first Recell treatment at the Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Center and the news segment says he is healing "amazingly well".
"What we think this is going to do for patients, they’re going to recover quicker, they’re going to have less donor sites, they’ll get out of the hospital faster," Dr. Caffrey says about Recell.
https://foxbaltimore.com/news/local/new-type-of-skin-graft-is-helping-patterson-park-fire-hero
I noticed that as well. The latest short figures showed about ~40million outstanding shorts so it could be them covering.
Can we please keep this forum discussion related to Avita? There is no need for or value in name calling.
Another large pre-market buy this morning for 57k shares at $7.55.
For what it's worth, I've also emailed different people at Avita over the past year (Tim Rooney, David McIntyre, and the general IR contact email). They have responded to most of my emails, but not all of them. Nothing seems out of place from my experience. It would be great if they replied to all my emails, but hell, even some of my coworkers don't respond to my emails!
Is anyone aware of any detailed analysis or publications on the results of Pluristem's Phase 2 Study on Intermittent Claudication?
The company website lists selective results, such as a stastically significant improvement seen in the U.S. participants (p value = 0.015) but it notably doesn't say anything about the rest of the participants in Germany, Israel, or South Korea. I checked their list of scientific publications and did not see anything there. Wasn't sure if it has been discussed elsewhere?
Thanks
Has anyone else been noticing the large pre-market trades over the last few days? Today there was one for ~56k shares. Yesterday one for 176k shares. Curious if these are just the result of the Cramer exposure or something else...
Remember the $7,500 unit price is in USD but the reported sales figures are in AUD. So 480 units equates to $3.6mil USD, and using an FX rate of 0.68 that is roughly $5.3mil in AUD sales. Even still, I would agree that Bell Potter's estimates are a bit conservative. I personally would expect sales around $7mil AUD next quarter based on current growth trajectory.
I liked how Perry revealed that many existing Avita investors (and some new ones) participated in the latest $120mil cap raise at $0.59.
The fact that our cornerstone institutional investors are buying more shares at this level confirms that they have no plans of selling any of their shares around here. I have a feeling the ~30mil AVH shorts are going to get toasted real soon...
Sharing a recent article on Avita in Australia. You need a subscription to read (which I don't have) so am re-posting the body of the article here as I saw it on Hotcopper.
https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/avita-tech-revolutionising-care-for-burn-patients-says-ceo-20191205-p53hbz
Avita Medical boss Mike Perry says its single-use device is revolutionising care for serious burns patients as the company eyes adjacent areas to use the unique Australian-made technology.The regenerative medicine company's Recell "spray-on skin" product was developed in Perth by Professor Fiona Wood. It aims to address unmet need in therapeutic skin restoration for adults, where patients would traditionally have to receive painful skin grafts.
"The real game-changing element of it is we are returning those melanocytes of pigment-producing cells to the skin, in addition to the skin cells themselves, and we are providing them in an aggregated form," Dr Perry said from his Californian base."We can a take skin for example from the calf of a leg and create a spray-on skin, and spray on someone's face who has second-degree burns. That will come back looking like a face, not like a leg. You are not left with disfiguring scars and from a pain perspective it's huge.
"Dr Perry explained that an adult male would need a skin sample about the size of a credit card to treat a wound on his entire back, rather than skin from both thighs and an arm for a skin graft. Avita has failed to achieve a significant level of market penetration and revenue despite being approved for commercial use outside the US for over a decade. But Dr Perry said that is changing.Avita has been one of the top performers this year on the ASX 200, up over 600 per cent, pushing its market capitalisation to over $1.2 billion despite having just $22.6 million cash, revenue of $7.9 million and no profits.
The company is being rewarded for its low-risk pipeline of new indications, he says, such as the vitiligo – a disease that causes the loss of skin colour in blotches. That market is valued at $US600 million ($877 million) in the US alone, and considered to be the bridge for expansion into the aesthetics space.Avita's next closest opportunity is the outpatient burns setting and treatment of donor sites. It's also looking to pediatrics, scalds and trauma. All up, there is a possible $US2 billion in sales, excluding gene therapy and aesthetics."Vitiligo – we have treated over 1000 patients in China with success and with no failures," Dr Perry said. "We have also had seven publications to support the adoption of Recell for vitiligo."Asia interestAvita is in early talks with possible Chinese partners, while its Japanese partner Cosmotec, owned by Tokyo-listed M3 Group, has submitted its Recell dossier to the authorities for marketing approval.
Avita recently raised $120 million to fund regulatory approvals and randomised clinical trials. It was supported by existing shareholders – Hong Kong's Karst Peak Capital, Redmile Group, and Blackcrane Capital – and by new ones such as Karara Capital and Regal Funds Management.
"Mike Perry has an impressive resume and presents the information well," said Montgomery analyst Joseph Kim. "As investors from Australia we are not always on top of the reimbursement [area]. It's critical."They seem to be on the right path with that, so it's likely why they are getting the take-up with burns units in the US."Dr Perry said he is firmly focused on the US given its size, but declined to give any outlook except to say “we are exceeding our internal targets” and 157 burns doctors out of 300 are trained to use the device in the US.Dr Perry, who took the top job in 2017 after taking early retirement from Novartis, said that using Recell also provides significant cost savings to the health system in reducing the numbers of hospital stays and procedures.
Arizona's Maricopa Integrated Health System estimated it could could save $US28 million a year by using Recell, while a burns centre in Memphis projected to cut costs by up to $US21 million.
Avita also has a powerful ally, US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, with whom it has long-term funding support. BARDA plans to stockpile its product in case of a burns disaster like a major terrorist attack.
Bell Potter analyst John Hester recently upgraded his call to a buy (speculative) from hold and raised his valuation to 83¢ per share from 69¢. The stock closed Friday at 60¢.He said Recell unit growth in the September quarter was much higher than expected. He is tipping 480 US Recell unit sales in the first quarter of 2020, and 2500 for the full year. The cost per unit is about $7,500.
I must say I am surprised at how much volume the Cramer appearance has brought (and continues to bring) into RCEL. The share price isn't moving much, but a ton of shares are changing hands up here above the recent CR price, which to me is a sign of strength more than weakness.
Not to discount the cost savings, but Maricopa is the second largest burn center in the US (~5,000 patients/yr). The average burn center is probably a tenth this size and would therefore see average savings of $2.6mil, which is still a good chunk of $.
After the very generous stock-based compensation the board proposed (and shareholders unfortunately approved) for Dr. Perry it would be very surprising if they were also looking to remove him as CEO.