Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)

[Fitz1030]

Sharing a recent article on Avita in Australia. You need a subscription to read (which I don't have) so am re-posting the body of the article here as I saw it on Hotcopper.

https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/avita-tech-revolutionising-care-for-burn-patients-says-ceo-20191205-p53hbz

Avita Medical boss Mike Perry says its single-use device is revolutionising care for serious burns patients as the company eyes adjacent areas to use the unique Australian-made technology.The regenerative medicine company's Recell "spray-on skin" product was developed in Perth by Professor Fiona Wood. It aims to address unmet need in therapeutic skin restoration for adults, where patients would traditionally have to receive painful skin grafts.

"The real game-changing element of it is we are returning those melanocytes of pigment-producing cells to the skin, in addition to the skin cells themselves, and we are providing them in an aggregated form," Dr Perry said from his Californian base."We can a take skin for example from the calf of a leg and create a spray-on skin, and spray on someone's face who has second-degree burns. That will come back looking like a face, not like a leg. You are not left with disfiguring scars and from a pain perspective it's huge.

"Dr Perry explained that an adult male would need a skin sample about the size of a credit card to treat a wound on his entire back, rather than skin from both thighs and an arm for a skin graft. Avita has failed to achieve a significant level of market penetration and revenue despite being approved for commercial use outside the US for over a decade. But Dr Perry said that is changing.Avita has been one of the top performers this year on the ASX 200, up over 600 per cent, pushing its market capitalisation to over $1.2 billion despite having just $22.6 million cash, revenue of $7.9 million and no profits.

The company is being rewarded for its low-risk pipeline of new indications, he says, such as the vitiligo – a disease that causes the loss of skin colour in blotches. That market is valued at $US600 million ($877 million) in the US alone, and considered to be the bridge for expansion into the aesthetics space.Avita's next closest opportunity is the outpatient burns setting and treatment of donor sites. It's also looking to pediatrics, scalds and trauma. All up, there is a possible $US2 billion in sales, excluding gene therapy and aesthetics."Vitiligo – we have treated over 1000 patients in China with success and with no failures," Dr Perry said. "We have also had seven publications to support the adoption of Recell for vitiligo."Asia interestAvita is in early talks with possible Chinese partners, while its Japanese partner Cosmotec, owned by Tokyo-listed M3 Group, has submitted its Recell dossier to the authorities for marketing approval.

Avita recently raised $120 million to fund regulatory approvals and randomised clinical trials. It was supported by existing shareholders – Hong Kong's Karst Peak Capital, Redmile Group, and Blackcrane Capital – and by new ones such as Karara Capital and Regal Funds Management.

"Mike Perry has an impressive resume and presents the information well," said Montgomery analyst Joseph Kim. "As investors from Australia we are not always on top of the reimbursement [area]. It's critical."They seem to be on the right path with that, so it's likely why they are getting the take-up with burns units in the US."Dr Perry said he is firmly focused on the US given its size, but declined to give any outlook except to say “we are exceeding our internal targets” and 157 burns doctors out of 300 are trained to use the device in the US.Dr Perry, who took the top job in 2017 after taking early retirement from Novartis, said that using Recell also provides significant cost savings to the health system in reducing the numbers of hospital stays and procedures.

Arizona's Maricopa Integrated Health System estimated it could could save $US28 million a year by using Recell, while a burns centre in Memphis projected to cut costs by up to $US21 million.

Avita also has a powerful ally, US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, with whom it has long-term funding support. BARDA plans to stockpile its product in case of a burns disaster like a major terrorist attack.

Bell Potter analyst John Hester recently upgraded his call to a buy (speculative) from hold and raised his valuation to 83¢ per share from 69¢. The stock closed Friday at 60¢.He said Recell unit growth in the September quarter was much higher than expected. He is tipping 480 US Recell unit sales in the first quarter of 2020, and 2500 for the full year. The cost per unit is about $7,500.