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It was also a blessing in disguise for those waiting for lower prices to add :)
Today marked the second time we touched the 200 day MA, and so far it appears it will hold (lack of selling below this level). Looking forward to the coming months and years now that I've reloaded...
Market appears to want to at least retest the recent low, so I'll be looking to add more RCEL in the low $7's. I doubt we see much lower than that without institutions joining in on the selling (which so far we haven't seen based on substantial holder filings).
Thanks for sharing. Did you watch live somewhere online or you mean you were there in person? What does it cost for an average Joe to attend these events?
Did anyone see this morning's investor presentation? I signed up for the webcast yesterday through the link on the company website but I never received an email... Just curious to see if today's slides had any additions from the Feb. version of the corporate presentation.
I picked up a bunch of shares yesterday and today. Thinking this drop may be done as we touched the 200 day MA (last time we hit this was over a year ago) and closed above it. Am ready to add more if we see sub-$7 though.
Looks like a new high was made tonight on the ASX - $0.78, equal to almost $10.50 RCEL. I am surprised that the flat Q4 sales didn't have more of a damper on the stock price but I suppose the market is recognizing that sales will be lumpy at least in the beginning.
I'm not aware that they've ever hosted one.
Sales were definitely disappointing. And it does look like Mike's suspicions turned out to be true this time (numbers must have been leaked to some). I still think the stock has good long term prospects, but the flat Q4 sales without any color from management definitely puts a damper on the party for now.
That is always a risk, but I wouldn't trade based on that speculation alone (too many signs point to continued Recell adoption/sales growth).
Case in point, all you have to do is look at the chart for the two weeks prior to the Q3 earnings release. We went from a high of $9.80 to a low of $8.10 the day before earnings came out. Based on that price action alone, you could have assumed insiders were selling before a bad earnings report. Q3 earnings came out on 10/31 and they were great (sales were up 60% Q/Q). The stock rallied back up to $9.80 that following week. I'm glad I didn't rush to conclusions from price action alone and sell.
Alright folks, you heard it from the moon boy himself... A drop before earnings must mean earnings are bad, and therefore all investors should be selling right here. No need to wait for the actual earnings data to come out. Mike will collect your shares as you exit the building.
It has historically always been posted on the morning of the last day of the month before the ASX opens, which would be tonight between 5 and 6pm U.S. Eastern Standard Time.
I'm very excited for tonight's sales numbers. More and more shares get locked up at higher prices with each passing quarter showing strong growth.
$12.5million in Q4 sales? Can I ask how you arrived at this figure? I think the market is expecting $6-$7m, with anything north of there being an upside surprise. If we hit $12.5mil in Q4 I think the stock would shoot to $15+ in an instant...
Not sure what to expect today/tomorrow, but expecting to be up Friday on positive Q4 sales ($6mil AUD +).
Up 5% overnight so far in Australia. Either they found a cure for the Coronavirus or the Avita insiders changed their minds on the Q4 sales...
Looks like Dr. Kopari from the Fresno burn center was demonstrating the recell device today at the Boswick Burn Symposium in Hawaii.
A special thank you to Dr. Nicole Kopari for presenting RECELL® System cases at the Boswick Symposium!
— AVITA Medical (@AvitaMedical) January 28, 2020
For complete RECELL® Important Safety Information refer to the Instructions for Use at https://t.co/fiuKUjlspe pic.twitter.com/QQSLqhiqKw
That could certainly be part of it, but my guess is the majority of the ~97% that don't seek treatment choose not to bother because their Vitiligo is mild or it doesn't bother them enough. A lot of people have small patches of skin without pigment, but this doesn't pose any medical danger to the patient. It's all about aesthetics and whether the Vitiligo is noticeable enough that it makes the person feel self-conscious in public.
You have to read the details on the slides closely. Yes, there are ~2million in Japan with Vitiligo, but there's ~6million in the U.S. with Vitiligo (which makes sense since we are 3x the population of Japan). The TAM of 158,000 U.S. patients represents the number of people with Vitiligo that actually seek medical treatment each year. This means that just under 3% of those with Vitiligo actually look to get it treated, hence the U.S. TAM is 158,000 and Japan's would be roughly a third of that - 53,000. Still a big market opportunity, but it would be foolish to overlook the fact that ~97% of those with Vitiligo are not bothered enough by it to seek treatment.
There is this from the press release last March on the Japan/Cosmotec collaboration. Japan's population is one third that of the US so I would expect the Japanese burn market is also roughly a third the size of the U.S. market.
"Japan is the second largest healthcare market in the world and represents a valuable market for the RECELL System with more than 6,000 patients with severe burns treated in hospitals each year. Over two million people in Japan are estimated to have vitiligo, a disease that causes the loss of skin color in blotches and can affect the skin on any part of a patient’s body."
Looks like Avita will be presenting at the Boswick Burn Symposium in Maui tomorrow into next week. Will be interesting to see how many of the attendees are aware of Recell this time compared to the conference a year ago.
https://jabmauisymposium.com/#about
The JPMDA application was filed on 2/25, so technically one year brings us to the end of February, but the approval could certainly come any day now.
Some more exposure for Recell this past week at the EAST 2020 Trauma Conference in Florida. Dr. Thompson, director of the Vanderbilt Burn Center (one of the largest in the US) was presenting on the Recell device. More and more burn surgeons are spreading the word...
https://twitter.com/TraumaDawg/status/1217834861886689281/photo/2
Yes, I believe Shriners is using Recell.
You're not bad moonboy mike. What are you expecting for Q4 sales?
Up 7% now, $0.725 RCEL equivalent is $10!
The latest RCEL short data is published. From 12/13 to 12/31, the shorts covered ~874k shares of RCEL at a loss. Hopefully lessons were learned...
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/rcel/short-interest
Interesting as I believe it was only $0.01/share last January.
On 12/13 RCEL closed at $8.24, and you said you would be buying back in on a dump to $7.50 in the coming days. Even after today's "dump" the stock is still trading 3% ABOVE where your comments would've indicated traders should sell. But feel free to continue congratulating yourself on your impeccable forecasting abilities...
The great dump hath cometh... RCEL down 1% this morning.
A new filing today showing RCEL's AVH holdings have increased by another ~23mil shares or 1% of OS. Confirms that RCEL is being accumulated.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200102/pdf/44d088kqk7kw7n.pdf
Good catch! From my notes, UMC burn center is one of the larger ones in the country with 300-400 estimated inpatient burn admissions each year. With 70 Recell treatments so far, that means Dr. Carter is treating roughly 20% of admitted patients with Recell. Also great to see that he's been on a "roadshow" showing other surgeons in the country how to use Recell.
Regarding shorts, latest figures show ~1mil RCEL shares are short and ~38mil AVH shares. Should see some of these get squeezed if we rally into the Q4 sales announcement.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/rcel/short-interest
Setting stop losses on a volatile stock is a guaranteed way to be parted from your shares. And with all due respect, you've been calling for a "dump around the corner" for weeks now.
Whoever our accumulator is it looks like they are coming in hot in the morning and then letting the price fall back in the afternoon. Interesting pattern both today and yesterday where the price rallies on strong volume the first half of the day then falls back some on low volume.
Although I agree the approval of Recell in Japan is an important milestone to pave the way for sales there I don't think the announcement itself will have much impact on the stock as it's almost 100% assumed/baked in that approval will be granted. I believe it is the Japan sales themselves that will drive the stock higher once they materialize and people can see the uptake.