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2011 at the earliest.
- African time one reason,
- Chinese negotiating tactics another,
- Sinopec needs data from phase II drilling
- lack of readily available drillships
- EEZ blocks allotment
- SEO's price target will only be met with much more data available from drilling, e.g. Phase II and possibly more
IMHO
Thanks, BB, you provide a nice perspective to the situation. With the world wide panic on Dubai it affected the price of our minnow as well.
At this stage it is all about'stay cool, wait and see and don't lose the perspective'. Thanks for your DD.
Re: Isn't it about time for Oily to chime in....
Please don't give the Sorcerers Apprentice any ideas. He has been wonderfully quiet and lets hope he / she / it stays that way.
We are still in the period of uncertainty and waiting for drilling results. There are many nervous nellies around making wild claims or inflammatory statements. The next 6 weeks will require patience and cool thinking. Oily does not seem to fit any of these criteria.
Ray, your thoughts are probably on many posters / readers mind at this time. You made a nice list of them. IMHO:
As for 1 and 2 - who knows - only Offor knows (and the shadow)
For 3 and 4 - we are all fully in with no more room to maneuver. On top of that the market is in correction mode and everyone is sitting on their thumbs waiting.
For 5 and 6 - you are bang on with 5 and some posters need funds so the are forced to sell some of their nest egg.
7 - where is Mark - I heard he is waiting to get info from his JDZ source any day now. What if the sources are told to shut up and not even breath until the end of November?
For 8 and 9 - no comment since I am neither an oil expert nor a chart one.
10 - is anyone alive out there - I am kicking around, but everyone else is going to be out for Halloween.
HAPY HALLOWEEN !!!!!!!!!!!!
Block 2 - Gas Factor is certainly strategic.
Considering that the EU is seriously thinking about gas supplies for Europe from other than Russia and is planning a gas pipeline across the Sahara and under the Straight of Gibraltar this is just more welcome future supply.
Good post, Red
Balance, thanks for the 'dots'. Good to hear from you, but would like to hear more often from you than during the past few weeks.
Don't be a stranger, we all value your thoughts. Ignore the Naysayers who are just an annoyance to most of us.
TKS VM .................
BB, good to see you posting again. As always you make some interesting points.
Look forward to further thoughts and comments from you. Have a great long weekend.
your prognostications remind me of the guy who kept hitting himself on the head with a hammer, screaming in agony each time. When asked why he keeps doing it he said 'it feels so good when the pain goes away'.
Your posts have a similar effect ................
Markgovols wrote last Wednesday, Sept. 9th:
Posted by: markgovols Date: Wednesday, September 09, 2009 9:36:00 AM
In reply to: midtieroil who wrote msg# 178640 Post # of 179134
hope to have update-verification this week. Been out and about over holiday weekend and tough to reach sources.
First of all it is not that long ago and communications in Africa are not instantaneous. Then it looks like his contacts may still be busy / unreachable / know something but are not allowed to breath a word??
Anyone want to take another guess ???
my mistake, it is only 96,000 shares on the short side. My glasses must have been foggy. Sorry for the mistake.
Agreed, these days the sellers are traders ….. and MMs trading for the house. Witness the large short position reported by Bloomberg at 96,375.000 shares. If correct (big IF I think), it is a time bomb waiting to shoot our share price into orbit.
Imagine the panic when drill results are published. The rush to cover such a large short position of approx. 15% of all outstanding shares will be of epic proportions. In fact it is even higher at approx. 38% of the float shares (assuming 550 million shares are locked up by Offor and friends).
The caveat here is that drill results are decent and get published in due time and that the Bloomberg short position report is accurate (check this link http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=erhe ).
Assuming the number is correct, how can the shorts have 'borrowed' so many shares so they could short the stock? Naked shorting is illegal, or is it only for the average schmuck and not the professionals?
AND, if Rigzone is right, then Oily was right with his latest predictions. OMG !!! Oily right? Is hell freezing over next?
Maybe we all have been wrong and he has been right (most?) of the time.
We should know within a fortnight!!!!
imho naked shorting is going on. So you go for it Exceo.
The problem will be:
1) Who has the resources to dig thru the data to prove it.
2) Its not something that impacts votes in the house or the senat
3) Who has the cloud to get the SEC to dig into this and to dedicate staff to do it.
4) How much sway does the big kitty still have over it all to influence what gets done and by whom
Unless and until naked shorting is totally declared illegal there are too many ways to duck around it. Now, if you have a connection on the hill or someplace in DC and if this could be a vote getter for them, or impact their career, then we may be getting somewhere.
I wish you best of luck to get this rolling. It would certainly help us investors in ERHE but also clean up another cancerous thinking of 'greed works'. That's how we got to the current economic mess in the first place.
How is this ranting and raving related to the topic of this board? Give it a rest already.
Some of us here are not at all interested in Democratic or Republican party politics. Please use other means and locations to publicize any political views
The last paragraph of your post is a 'keeper' and absolutely hilarious, Exceo. I will add this to my list of worthwhile sayings with your permission.
At one point I almost felt like agreeing with one angry poster who called you names. You are a gem and a sage with sayings like that. Hope to meet you in Vegas (SOON).
All the best to you.
Reason for keeping a stock price range bound is usually for a future 'deal', a significant upcoming event, M&A activity like buy-out, take over, etc
We all have seen it often and my guess is that this is not different. I suspect neither do you. But we will find out, whether we like to or not.
No question that the price is being managed by a market maker(s). Strass, this is exactly how professional market makers with solid financial resources behind them make an 'orderly' market.
This close to drilling we can all guess as to the reason for the managed price. We will find out soon enough. I just hope we will not be too disappointed.
Posts like this make a board valuable: Cool and logical, nicely summarized with none of the screaming emotion others display when posting.
Your caution on the investigations not being totally dead is very prudent. I also value your caution on ADAXs ability to affort a buy-out of us. The issue will be who the US government will allow to take us out, surely not the Chinese. So that leaves Saudi or Emirates, maybe one of the big majors and few others.
Any thoughts?
Moderator - please stop these personal attacks between tatrader11 and DegenerateGambler. It serves no purpose for the rest of the people reading this board.
wrong once?
Yes, I was wrong once. I thought I had made a mistake
Mark, you can't make it any plainer than this. Except for the 'I want what I want and I want it NOW' crowd. Unfortunately we have a large group of those on this bulletin board.
When are we getting off the island?
August or as soon as drilling in any Block commences. In the meantime we all wait and worry. Unfortunately some people can't sit still and wait. They get impatient, issue nasty-grams and wild comments about far fetched or possible events.
Waiting and patience are a virtue; few possess it.
Please add me to the chart. Kaydee in Toronto, ON. Thanks
Feb. 13th of which year are you referring to? And then @.32 - are you trying to say "beware the ides of Februarius?"
Sounds like Oily and his predictions, and we know what comes of these !!!!!!!!!!!
Alright, email me at kdoose@aol.com re '..very good. Got any more??? Your buddy, BUBBA'
~~~~~~~~ I love This Board too !!!~~~~~~~~~
I suspect your message was tongue in cheek. We all need to lighten up a little here. It is getting far too bitter and personal. In this spirit I offer the following suggestion to improve home security:
A NEW HOME SECURITY SYSTEM (ON A BUDGET)
1. Go to a secondhand store and buy a pair of men's used size 14-16 work boots.
2. Place them on your front porch, along with a copy of Guns & Ammo Magazine.
3. Put a few giant dog dishes next to the boots and magazines.
4. Leave a note on your door that reads:
Bubba, Big'un, Duke, Slim, 'n me went for more ammo and beer. Back in an hour. Don't mess with the pit bulls - they attacked the mailman this morning and messed him up real good. I don't think Killer took part, but it was hard to tell from all the blood. Anyway, I locked all four of 'em in the house.
Better wait outside.
Cooter
Don't think of cash payments - they could pay with paper. Issue 126 mil. shares would do that. AXC was more than double today's price 6 month ago. In time, with oil again selling at $100/b and proven huge reserves in JDZ, it will go North of $50/sh again. That more than doubles any takeover price of $3.75.
I for one would go for such a deal in a NY minute.
TDW in Canada does the same thing for margin accounts. You need to talk to a rep for any buy. Reason likely is that the stock has tanked so much during the year and they don't want to be held responsible for someone buying more than they should. Part of the 'know your client' rules.
Suspect that Scottrade is following the same rationale.
I suspect ADX has cashflow problems - inspite of 500 million LOC - and with the oil price south of 50.
Gandur has many drilling areas to fund, is focused heavily on northern Iraq and needs to chose wisely where to spend his funds. The line of credit ADX has likely has conditions attached to it. It may not allow much of it to be used in the JDZ. In fact the banks who provide the LOC may themselves be in trouble and have funding problems.
For ADX it is crunch time and time to re-asses.
Many others in Gandurs position are re-thinking how to deploy scarce capital and all have, or are, re-evaluating their plans. The big question for exploration companies is to figure out where the prices for oil and metals are going to be 1, 2, 3, etc years from now.
If the worldwide economic malaise drags into a 5 year one, or worse into a Japanese one, then being frugal now with funding of capital projects is of the essence for any CEO.
So lets keep this in perspective before everyone jumps up and down screaming like rumpelstilskin. Things will sort themselves out, but not in the short run. We WILL have to wait longer, an unpleasant truth, but a fact.
Please, everyone, stop the ranting and raving. These are serious times.
has the credit crunch caught Addax too?
For the past 3 weeks I have had the suspicion that Addax may have a cash crunch to deal with. They rely as much on the banks to finance the exploration activity as their own cash flow. During the past 2 months banks have cut loans to even their most valued clients in view of the worldwide liquidy issues.
Gandur of Addax is an enterpreneur - sure he wants to save costs by waiting to get a better price for a drill rigg. But are these prices really coming down, or are they holding since demand is still high and available riggs still fairly low.
If the above is true, then Addax has another reason for slowing down their search - free cash flow. That does not mean that they will not proceed in due course. But we may just have to wait until sometime in 2009 for any news on drilling.
Other small and midrange exploration companies and mining companies have postponed activities on their new projects. Just read the press each day on more announcements. These 'delays' are everywhere - Russia, Australia, South America, Canada, etc.
So I am not surprised that the same may be true for Addax. They don't have money to fund ALL of their drilling & exploration activity in all of their areas of interest.
It does'nt make me scream doom and gloom. Yes, I am disappointed having to wait yet longer. But this too shall pass.
Addax is up a few cents - NOT 3.5%
as of noon:
ADDAX PETROLEUM COM NPV(Toronto: AXC.TO)
Last Trade: 29.08 Trade Time: 11:58AM ET Change: 0.01 0.03%)
Prev Close: 29.07
Day's Range: 28.00 - 30.47
SEC Issues New Rules to Protect Investors Against Naked Short Selling Abuses
17/09/08
The Securities and Exchange Commission today took several coordinated actions to strengthen investor protections against “naked” short selling. The Commission’s actions will apply to the securities of all public companies, including all companies in the financial sector. The actions are effective at 12:01 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 18, 2008.
“These several actions today make it crystal clear that the SEC has zero tolerance for abusive naked short selling,” said SEC Chairman Christopher Cox. “The Enforcement Division, the Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations, and the Division of Trading and Markets will now have these weapons in their arsenal in their continuing battle to stop unlawful manipulation.”
In an ordinary short sale, the short seller borrows a stock and sells it, with the understanding that the loan must be repaid by buying the stock in the market (hopefully at a lower price). But in an abusive naked short transaction, the seller doesn't actually borrow the stock, and fails to deliver it to the buyer. For this reason, naked shorting can allow manipulators to force prices down far lower than would be possible in legitimate short-selling conditions.
Today’s Commission actions, which are the result of formal rulemaking under the Administrative Procedure Act, go beyond its previously issued emergency order, which was limited to the securities of financial firms with access to the Federal Reserve’s Primary Dealer Credit Facility. Because the agency's exercise of its emergency authority is limited to 30 days, the previous order under Section 12(k)(2) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 expired on Aug. 12, 2008.
The Commission’s actions were as follows:
Hard T+3 Close-Out Requirement; Penalties for Violation Include Prohibition of Further Short Sales, Mandatory Pre-Borrow
The Commission adopted, on an interim final basis, a new rule requiring that short sellers and their broker-dealers deliver securities by the close of business on the settlement date (three days after the sale transaction date, or T+3) and imposing penalties for failure to do so.
If a short sale violates this close out requirement, then any broker-dealer acting on the short seller’s behalf will be prohibited from further short sales in the same security unless the shares are not only located but also pre-borrowed. The prohibition on the broker-dealer’s activity applies not only to short sales for the particular naked short seller, but to all short sales for any customer.
Although the rule will be effective immediately, the Commission is seeking comment during a period of 30 days on all aspects of the rule. The Commission expects to follow further rulemaking procedures at the expiration of the comment period.
Exception for Market Makers from Short Selling Close-Out Provisions in Reg SHO Repealed
The Commission approved a final rule to eliminate the options market maker exception from the close-out requirement of Rule 203(b)(3) in Regulation SHO. This rule change also becomes effective five days after publication in the Federal Register.
As a result, options market makers will be treated in the same way as all other market participants, and required to abide by the hard T+3 closeout requirements that effectively ban naked short selling.
Rule 10b-21 Short Selling Anti-Fraud Rule
The Commission adopted Rule 10b-21, which expressly targets fraudulent short selling transactions. The new rule covers short sellers who deceive broker-dealers or any other market participants. Specifically, the new rule makes clear that those who lie about their intention or ability to deliver securities in time for settlement are violating the law when they fail to deliver. This new rule is effective immediate
as reported by Reuters:
Toronto stock index falls 300 points, resources hit. Oil falls on OPEC, easing storm threat
TORONTO, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The Toronto Stock Exchange's main index tumbled on Tuesday morning, giving up more than 2 percent as resource shares were pulled lower by falling commodity prices and worries over slowing demand.
The S&P/TSX composite index .GSPTSE was down 305.46 points, or 2.42 percent, at 12,329.18. (Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Editing by Peter Galloway)
our partnership with ADDAX - indirectly is larger than it appears with the deal Chrome recently made. Could the ERHE - ADDAX link-up grow - yes, but it will take 4 to 8 years. Will ERHE be around that long - maybe, but likely not.
At this time we are all frustrated with the lack of a ROO and few prospects of any in the short term. Petrobras smartly locked up a lot of the rigs. The market is just too tight and new drillships need to be build. There goes another 2 years. Everyone needs these ships and the demand will grow a lot more in the next 2 to 5 years.
What we all need is patience, something we all lack in our obession with getting results NOW. ERHE unfortunately is not a quick results play - another 2 to 5 years? I hope not, but other than Offor folding it completely into Chrome and listing Chrome on a non-US Exchange, we better get used to the waiting.
Am I frustrated like the rest of you - Yes; can I do anything about it - No. We better always remind ourselves of the Golden Rule: There is a majority owner of ERHE and he makes the rules. The rest of us are just along for the ride and have little or no impact. Those who don't like it better dump the stock.
That said, I too am a blue-eyed optimist and keep dreaming of a shorter time frame. However, I am realistic enough to wait, if necessary.
Addax up today because all the Canadian Oil stocks are up. For ADX it is also a reaction to the recent sell-off due to the investigation by the Ad Hoc Committee of the House of Representatives.
The TSX is up 202 points today.
BB - ADDAX drilling schedule in JDZ - why not also post it on the ERHE board? This is interesting news.
Life for a US registered company can be made very difficult and costly by these hearings and court actions (should any result).
Lets consider that the real issue behind all of this is that Big Oil is royally ticked off with ERHE. Lets also consider that they want to GET EVEN and have great access to the House, the Senate, the White House, DOJ, and whatever other branch of government is required.
Now lets consider that they really want to put ERHE through the wringer and eventually bankcrupt it. What nice way to get the search warrants going, as they did, then these hearings and really trying to drag all of this into the courts. It is conceivable, with the right court location (Texas?) and jury ERHE will get convicted with some huge fines to be paid and huge court costs.
There goes any money the company has and in the end the courts could seize the rights to the JDZ. Isn't that what Big Oil really wants?
That is the real risk. And to think it is not possible, just look at the recent court case against Conrad Black in Chicago. The objective is to bankcrupt him and to make him look like a fool. He has many faults, he may even be guilty of wrongful actions (just like ERHE could be made to look).
I am long in ERHE and hope Offor will soon make the right legal moves. One of them should be to distance ERHE from US government agencies and legislators.
I already love all things Swiss (my Swiss born wife included), and big deals like Falconbridge will likely be followed by others.
absolute BEST chocolate is Belgian. Swiss chocolate is good, but Belgian tops them all.