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AH volume is already over 1M. Is it just a reaction to the Oppenheimer hit piece?
Kim
BB are you implying that GILD partnership will be announced tomorrow?
Kim
AMRN shares shorted over time. It's staggering.
All these ideas floating around about suing AF, MRC, etc. are nothing compared to this graph. Think about all these poor people who jumped on this short train after reading the FUD that these "experts" were spreading.
I honestly have no idea if it is feasible to cover even a fraction of this monster position in a reasonable time. As of 10/31, Nasdaq shows days to cover at 12.4 already! And what happens if Amarin PRs a $50 bid?
Quick search reveals that the adcom you are talking about was very different, because the safety issues were so serious that there was a second voting question regarding drug's safety. I actually agree with FDA that additional safety investigation was the right thing to do in that case. The drug was eventually approved a year later, once the safety concerns were addressed.
Stop spreading your FUD here.
You know what's the difference between 13-4 and 16-0? It is 76.47% versus 100%. For FDA that would be 23.53% of doubt from the panel versus zero doubt. Your careful pitches about how low the price would go in case of CRL are the same as before. Please go away.
BB, not sure what you mean by this.
During adcom FDA definitely acted as if they were fully in support of Vascepa for secondary, but not so much about primary. Isn't it the board consensus so far that the label disagreements with Amarin is the primary reason why the late ambush adcom was called by FDA?
Kim
That's puzzling. Didn't Thero say that the halt would be lifted after the PR?
Stat+ ADCOM report
My friend forwarded me a pdf with the full report by these two a-holes. PM me if you have any questions.
The report admits AMRN win for secondary, but as usual doesn't report correctly the outcome of the meeting regarding the primary. Concludes that the changes of wide label are low and estimates sales at 1B+ only.
Kim
Definitely. I predict $17.99 new TP.
Negative public speaker
1. Did he raise any new/constructive concerns or just a basher?
2. Who is he? Any medical/scientific credentials or bathroom renovator type?
FFS, can you elaborate on why you are not long?
Are you waiting for a better/lower entry or you think there's a substantial risk of the AdCom going poorly?
Kim
Sts,
Thanks for the advice, greatly appreciated! I will need to sit down and revisit the orders I placed to make sure I minimize the chances of getting into a situation similar to the one you described.
Kim
AdCom briefing documents will be released to public on Tuesday, November 12. They are always released two days before AdComs and often times cause significant dips in share price.
Quote from https://www.fda.gov/media/75436/download:
"For an open advisory committee meeting for which the briefing materials may contain information that, under certain circumstances, could be considered to be exempt from public disclosure under FOIA, we intend (as set forth in the Appendices) to post a publicly available version of the briefing materials on our Web site no later than two full business days5 before the day the advisory committee meeting (or the part of the meeting to which the materials pertain) is scheduled to occur."
Lidopete, this is an excellent point!
Traders seem to focus so much on anything that is even slightly negative in the briefing documents, but nobody seems to be questioning the reasons behind them. Positive briefing documents would be kind of pointless.
The day briefing documents released is expected to be a highly volatile one. That's why I sold some of my ARWR lots at 52wk highs. I am now sitting on quite a bit of cash that I am ready to use if AMRN share price dives on Tuesday. I already put buy limit orders at $15.75, $15.50, $15.25 and $15.
Hopefully, the market will give me an opportunity to increase my AMRN position before the ADCOM. As the wise one said, after all, the market is just a device for transferring money from impatient investors to the patient ones :).
VK
I predict that a year from now there will be a hundred differently misspelled versions of Vascepa available on AliExpress. All of them will be 95%+ ecosapent ethyl in shitty coated 0.5g pills with very short shelf life, but few orders of magnitude cheaper than Vascepa.
I actually hope that he is right and the stock dives a bit before ADCOM.
I was gradually taking profits over the last few weeks from my other investments and am now sitting on a lot of cash that I am planning to use to increase my AMRN position.
Come on bears, give me your AMRN shares!
For all we know FDA approves labeling early and holds post approval Ad Com.
Label negotiations in the sNDA process could commence as early as one month prior to the PDUFA date under FDA’s typical processes.
I could not disagree more.
Uber IPO underwritters: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and BofA Merrill Lynch. Did you see what happened to Uber share price in the days following the IPO?
This offering sure looks like it was designed in a hurry and it doesn't seem to have a reasonable explanation. I suspect that it is something urgent that came up recently in the process of Amarin's label negotiations with FDA. The nature of this issue must have been such that:
1. Amarin could not PR anything about it for confidentiality reasons.
2. Solution required a significant amount of money.
I am sure, whatever this issue is, Amarin will disclose the details after PDUFA date. Any guesses what this issue could be?
Yup, a lot of long term bulls are spreading fears on this board now. It sure looks like a perfect time to follow Warren's advice and be greedy now.
Offering has been priced at $18. Info from Fidelity offering notification (request for IOI confirmation).
Oh, yeah, totally explains all the hiring frenzy!
Are you saying that your TA suggests a big move soon even if there are no material news at all?
The right (imaginary) quote would be: "I shorted AMRN because MedResCollab convinced me, but then I got margin called 3 times in 3 days and now I lost so much money that I and my loved ones are in financial trouble for the rest of our lives".
I've read the entire PR, but didn't find anything regarding adjusted guidance for 2019. Does it mean that it stays unchanged at $350M or it could be still adjusted during the conference call?
"PPS will go nowhere in the next 9 months without a BO." (user Markipeach, morning of March 29, 2019)
Yup, he will be forever famous on this board for this prediction :).
JL, don’t you think it’s suspicious that heavy hitters are moving in before the details of the requested label have been disclosed? Do you know when this information is expected to PR? Thanks!
So, sNDA details are still unknown?
Can somebody enlighten me on the sNDA submission process? The PR states that sNDA was submitted, but doesn't say anything about the actual label that was requested. What is the expected timeline now for this vital information to be released? Am I the only one who thinks this is really the only important part of sNDA submission PR in terms of new information available to investors?
I was looking for a product like this, so I could send it to my parents who live in a country where Vascepa is not available yet. Found this on Amazon: OmegaVia EPA500 (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00D37S0HC/ref=ppx_od_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1). It looks like it's a bit better than other products on the market due to the extraction process that uses less heat, therefore the resulting EPA with less oxidation.
On a related note, go and read the reviews. It's quite interesting:
- Some reviewers are either buying this product, because Vascepa is not available in their country or because their MD/cardiologist prescribed Vascepa, but it wasn't covered by their insurance.
- A lot of reviewers are boasting about the effect of this product on their triglycerides levels after just weeks of taking it.
I just bought 10 bottles for my parents :).
Question about Vascepa supply chain.
I strongly believe in Vascepa potential for many years to come. Therefore, I think it wouldn't be such a terrible idea to also invest into companies that are already a part of Vascepa supply chain. Given the anticipated growth rate of Vascepa demand, those suppliers should thrive as well.
Anybody knows the names of these companies, so I could do a DD on them and see if any of them are worth investing into?
1. Seems like this board came to a conclusion that AMRN is better suited to be acquired by Amgen than by PFE. Wouldn't Amgen leadership think so too?
2. PFE BO bid is a rumor that was not officially confirmed, so it's just a rumor, which means that Amgen leadership can't be sure either.
This brings an important point: Amgen leadership must be feeling very motivated right now to hurry up and approach AMRN with a serious no-lowball offer, no?
* this is my very first post on iHub, so please be gentle :) *