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I'll take 75,000 shares and save you 125,000! Race to the bottom.
We will be lucky if FDA comes up with rules in 2020. They'll get the results of the testing in June or July, have follow up questions, hold one more listening session, then deliberate. Since that runs through the holiday seasons, that brings any potential FDA rules potentially being released Q1-Q3 2021.
Unless Senate and House pass that bill that automatically makes it legal, then Trump signs it, or there is a buyout, this is dead money for a year.
I also doubt CVSI earnings are going to all of a sudden start jumping up again. IMO it's more likely that sales keep trending down. But I hope I'm wrong.
And I highly doubt that the legislation makes it to Trump's desk.
However, if it gets to Trump's desk, he'll most likely sign in. He seems to be in favor of less regulation, and giving consumers more options - like trying to force hospitals to show consumers what their prices actually are, etc.
And CBD seems really popular among a wide swath of people, so politically, it would make sense for him as well.
This could make sense, but that is a LOT of conjecture - too much I'd say.
Having built businesses myself as well, then having a firm that advised founders - that founder affinity sometimes does not live on after the founder is gone. I've seen both cases in the extreme but also in the moderate.
There are way too many unknowns in this case.
In a nice suburb. I won't give more info about myself and where I travel to and from etc. This store does not have customers who lack for money, that's for sure.
The display isn't the greatest either though.
I'll check in another week or two or three when I'm back in that area. Hopefully at least one unit sells.
Glad to hear it's selling elsewhere from someone on the board in IL.
That chair won't drop this quarter IMO.
Agreed. Other companies are going to keep improving their quality and reputation just like CVSI has done the past few years and it will be a herculean task for CVSI to get back up to $6+/-. It can - but it will need to start showing great growth again - otherwise, it's just another sales company in a space where the truly big players have yet to enter. And they WILL enter with their billions.
It's just not realistic at this point.
The initial, first-time euphoria over CBD potential/farm bill excitement ran this stock up. That run up won't happen again like it did in the past.
All CBD investors are going to be more wary going forward. You can never recreate that initial euphoric break out of an industry when people are just irresponsibly throwing money at stocks.
It's been two weeks now without a single +CBD product sold at the Harris Teeter in a Washington, DC suburb. I was just there and the same 8 products are still on the shelf as last few times I was there.
This, other people on this board saying the same thing, Q3 trajectory, along with other comments and non-comments from Dowling, are why I think Q4 is going to miss their guidance.
The prices were actually around the same price point as all the other products.
To +CBD credit, the display for the products suck. But also the +CBD product packaging looks cheap - there's no actual packaging, just the product jar with plastic over it.
If they meet guidance, then good. I'd rather see a beat obviously though.
Does anyone actually think they are going to beat in Q4? I think they come in low and this nosedives again to new 52 week lows.
All the signals point to a miss.
I put this in another post too but replying directly so you see it.
It's a suburb of DC so relatively affluent compared to the rest of the country. They aren't in a locked case. No real need given the community.
My initial impression was "It costs this much for these tiny jars?!"
I think they've had them closer to a month but the guy said he knows they've been sitting there for at least a week or so. He couldn't remember anyone buying them and says they've been sitting.
It's a suburb of DC so relatively affluent compared to the rest of the country. They aren't in a locked case. No real need given the community.
My initial impression was "It costs this much for these tiny jars?!"
At Harris Teeter: Traveling to VA and saw plus CBD on the shelf. The person working in that department told me that they had been sitting there for at least a week with no sales. They could not remember past that and said they had only had them for a couple of weeks.
There was literally a thick layer of dust on the top of the bottles.
I don’t know how to upload pics Otherwise I will upload it.
All good points and my instinct is saying the don't beat on Q4 either. I hope I'm wrong!
As for B2C e-commerce it's INSANE they aren't putting all their money there and into marketing directly to consumers.
I understand the challenges due to regulation, but still....
They need some e-commerce help big time.
However, their e-commerce did grow last Q - as long as it keeps growing that is at least one good thing with sales. But they don't seem like the crew that is going to dominate online sales in the industry.
I agree. 100% get a pet line asap. White labeling can be great or it could destroy CVSI's own consumer brands. I've seen white labeling be really good and really bad for companies.
I don't know if they should or not.
All that info is pulled in by algorithm. It could be, and most likely is, that CVSI (and some other OTC companies) format or list their activity somewhere that allowed or scraped by the website's algorithms.
It is not because NASDAQ is about to uplist them.
It's just wonky, technical differences on the backend of some larger platforms somewhere.
Someone should write an article titled "Should Dowling be fired if CVSI misses on Q4 earnings?"
That'll light a fire under his ass.
Dowling is not our friend and he's not our enemy. He is the steward of our money and our shares. If he misses on Q4, after revising guidance downward, I will be calling for a new CEO.
I hope most of you will too, instead of pointing fingers at everything except the CEO.
CVSI has had EVERY competitive advantage to keep sales going. If sales keep going down, especially during the hottest quarter of the year, CEO replacement MUST be considered.
Dangerous: The psyche of this board seems to have moved the conversation to how bad CW is and what THEIR valuation SHOULD be and that CW's valuation is 'unfair' and how much CVSI is getting screwed in their valuation and how CVSI's valuation is 'unfair.'
When the conversation becomes about other companies, and not what CVSI has to do to improve, it indicates that the psyche on this board is in denial.
If you keep saying 'unfair' on the valuations, - there are some safe spaces on college campuses waiting for you because you don't understand the markets, capitalism, corporate leadership and how to grow a real business.
The conversation should be about one primary thing, how does CVSI increase sales. And if they aren't, we as shareholders need to put pressure on the company to act - not look for scapegoats or look to past CVSI stock prices.
Many on this board think a good corporate strategy is to wait for the FDA and/or legislation to save the company.
If that's your thinking, you're going to lose all your money in the market one way or another.
The ONLY way to save the company is to keep increasing sales and subsequently they will beat on earnings. If they are selling more and more, the rest will take care of itself.
If sales keep going down, there's only one place to point the finger, at the CEO. Not other companies, valuation considerations, politicians, governing bodies etc.
You can make all the excuses you want, but they are able to sell - nothing is stopping them. But if Q4 misses, with Christmas(!) it'll prove they don't know what to do forecast, increase sales and their corporate strategy is just to wait for legislation and/or the FDA.
That's a loser mentality right there.
But go ahead, attack my post with all your excuses.
Need more sales, period. You can't argue it.
You're right on those contributing factors.
I'm mainly talking about new money coming in. It'd be crazy to invest in this company right now given how Q4 may end up.
For example, I'm ready to buy more shares, but I want to see what Q4 does first. Can management execute now that the 2019 national buzz is over? I want to see sales - that's the only thing that matters.
My plan has been to hold for 2 years.
But if Q4 tanks and there are signs of their financial viability cracking (their profit isn't a large amount for how much they've been building and relatively in this industry) - I may consider just cutting bait and entering the sector a little bit later again as the landscape takes shape.
If Q4 tanks, there will be no new money coming in until the next Q either. Especially on OTC.
And there's no way a 2-3x valuation would happen with continually declining sales. At that point the only thing justifying a larger valuation would be the HOPE of legislation.
And hoping on legislation and politicians is a fools errand. We've already seen the farm bill disaster and that was supposed to lift the entire industry sky high.
There's a lot of money to be made here trading. But I'm an investor, a patient one. But if Q4 misses, it's a big management problem and you can't wait those problems out.
We'll see.
I want the best but I think what Dowling meant by "choppy" is that they just don't know how to navigate the competitive landscape and they are simply waiting on legislation or the FDA to save the company.
That's not a strategy.
This company is in the sales game. Get sales or you lose.
Here's hoping to a surprising Q4 beat but I'm skeptical.
If they miss their updated revised earnings that they lowered with the low end being around $10M, and they only do 7 figures in revenue it's going to be a bloodbath.
If they only do 7 figures in revenue in Q4, with revised earnings downward and they knew what the picture looked like, with the holiday....
It'll show they don't know how to forecast and the company's advantage would be gone. Their "profitability" is small beans in this space and it's not a lot of money. It's a good talking point, sure. But a few million? Who gives a crap - it's nothing. It's good they have it b/c they'd prob be doing layoffs right now if they didn't. So they've bought themselves some time.
The existing legislation will take too long to get done most likely and FDA won't issue anything before competitors keep catching up.
I'm long, have more shares than anyone I've seen post here so far and I've bought all the way down from $6.50.
I wasn't expecting it to get this low.
I'm rooting for this company, I am just realistic and been investing for 25 years. I don't eat the crap 'sunshine and rainbows' that others post on this board.
So many people on this board are so emotionally attached to this company it's clear this board is filled with inexperienced investors using emotion and lying to themselves about the reality.
I'm prepared to lose all my CVSI money as EVERYONE should be since this is the OTC and anything can happen here.
I'm hoping not to though.
The difference in how the news affects both stocks differently is absolutely expected and warranted.
That's because CVSI has had an absolutely awful reputation for years, marred by alleged semi-corrupt owners, isn't the industry leader, is a PR-quiet company, had a shockingly bad Q3 compared to Charlotte and as a result of all of this - CVSI is traded on an absolute shit, laughingstock, exchange.
Who wants to invest, at this point in time, in a company that could very well have another shockingly bad quarter that would decimate the market cap?
I don't think anything changes here until Q4 comes out and people learn if Dowling and team can forecast correctly.
It's almost fair to call Dowling incompetent if CVSI doesn't beat on a lower Q4 revised guidance.
If they still have a bad Q4 on a revised guidance downward, and they didn't actually revise downward ENOUGH, even being into Q4 when revising, watch out - it'll be time for new leadership.
If they don't beat, it proves to me Dowling should be demoted to product and they need to bring in an experienced public-sector CEO.
I agree with you ANIA77.
If CVSI misses on Q4 like they did in Q3, this company's long-term viability is going to be questioned (rightfully or wrongfully) - but it will be questioned. And the market cap is going to absolutely tank, again, as it should in that scenario, and it won't recover until they can prove they have a solid beat quarter and actually grow again.
Charlotte has a lot to justify it's higher ratio.
CVSI has distribution contracts that are producing less and less.
CVSI HAS to prove it can forecast correctly. If they miss on Q4 despite changing the forecast and it being a holiday season, there must be a CEO change. Keep Dowling, sure, but we'll need someone with some real public company CEO experience.
Your posts are overly positive and dramatic without looking at reality or any risks. Are you a serious investor or just down big trying to convince people of a false-reality?
If CVSI misses on Q4 like they did in Q3, this company's long-term viability is going to be questioned (rightfully or wrongfully) - but it will be questioned. And the market cap is going to absolutely tank, again, and it won't recover until they can prove they have a solid beat quarter.
The bill in the works, is not even close to guaranteed. Don't get your hopes up - but hopefully it passes.
I tend to anecdotally agree that the choppiness and big Q3 surprise earnings miss with CVSI are deterring people.
People are waiting to see if Q4 is a big miss as well - which it very well could be.
So you think all these companies (this list is tiny relative to all the players out there) are not racing to improve their quality and distribution? Lack of FDA rules gives them time to do so, bridging the gap between CVSI and everyone else.
And don't forget all the major players who are developing their own products like Canopy Growth that has just entered the US market with First and Free.
You think long-term CVSI can compete with Canopy Growth with CVSI's tiny cash reserve and currently no access to any large amount of expansionary cash?
And IF (only if) CVSI's Q4 reflects Q3, they will be in an even weaker position to wait the FDA out to clear out all the bad actors.
Another large concern for everyone here is any potential buyout when the SP is this low. Let's say there's a premium from this SP - what does that even get us?
Not a lot.
CVSI stock is probably going to do nothing until Q4 earnings approach - then there will probably be a run up by short-term traders. Where it goes after that run up will be determined by the Q4 earnings.
And for the sake of all shareholders, everyone better PRAY Q4 meets or passes guidance. If it is a disappointment, this stock is going to free fall because it will show that CVSI management has no clue how to accurately predict guidance.
As an investor, I'm skeptical of all companies and management until they prove me wrong.
CVSI has some proving to do after their abysmal last quarter. I'm hoping they do prove me wrong.
Each day that goes by without FDA guidance is another day that the lackluster +CBD brand loses its competitive advantage. CVSI had an early start, but the environment may be getting too competitive for this team that lacks something.
You're 100% right.
I own a lot of this and am waiting it out. But if Q4 doesn't meet their guidance, this thing will free fall and many will question the long-term validity of the company.
If Q4 is a surprise upward, then this should start cautiously heading north again. We'll probably see a big run up by manipulators then it'll come back down but not to where it currently is.
Long-term I don't think the company can wait out the FDA - too much smart, evolving competition that understand marketing, brand power and public perception of a brand.
I want CVSI to succeed but I'm having a harder and harder time justifying the reasons. Their only competitive advantage was their early lead into quality and distribution - but competitors can, and are catching up relatively quickly as FDA drags its feet.
The FDA, like the rest of Washington, DC, is hands down, the most corrupt place on planet earth. You have a legion of completely unremarkable people in civil servants, gov't union employees and other federal workers who would be lower middle-management in the private sector, who are setup with amazingly cushy, unaccountable jobs where it's almost impossible to legally be fired, with a revolving door of money ready to pay them for any bit of information about the purposefully complex, muddy systems and processes that the lobbyists themselves have made that way.
I have deep experience with DC over decades. There are no words to describe how much worse it all is than what the general public thinks or what is shown in TV shows.
The FDA is one epitome of that.
And they use the slogan "From seed to shelf" just like CVSI.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kadenwood-llc-seed-to-shelf-cbd-company-launches-performance-sports-brand-level-select-300914040.html
You're 100% right - losing foothold in mass retailers is a big concern.
I just don't see FDA coming out with anything concrete, soon. Sure maybe they issue some soft guidelines that drive away some, but not nearly enough, of the smaller players.
But these mid-sized companies are moving fast.
Let's hope the smaller competitors finances start to wane.
I'd be fine with a buyout at this point but someone earlier made some good points about.
I just don't see many competitive advantages at this point when the FDA is looking to take a long time.
If FDA was going to act fast, sure, we have good competitive advantages.
At the end of the day, I'd like to see an older EVP with a STRONG sales background come in and take more of the reigns.
Right now the team is more of a C level team with some good, trade, paper experience - but there's no one here who's build multi-billion dollar brands and operated at the level we want to be at.
All these board members, other hires, they are check marks but, eh - no one that is going to move the needle.
Agree with you for the most part. It bugs me so many people on this board have such ridiculous blinders on.
It's hard to overstate what a disappointment Q3 was and the fact that they adjusted annual guidance to lower Q4 - if they miss Q4 - this will free fall and will not recover for a long time.
If they miss Q4, people will start to question the financial sustainability of the actual business since firm, FDA guidelines is likely not around the corner and the only way this company is going to dramatically increase sales is through ingeistibles in the big retailers they currently have topicals in.
So they need to hold the line or show small gains in quarterly sales until FDA releases firm rules.
The only way is NOT up if they don't hit their new, lowered Q4 estimate. They bombed in Q3. If they miss in Q4 like they did in Q3 - this thing is going to $.50.
I have more shares than anyone I've seen post on this board and I have a lot of interest in seeing this go back up.
But let's be realistic. Everyone buying here may get a big haircut if the same thing that that made Q3 awful, makes Q4 awful.
At every point of this downward slide the past 6 months, all the longs on this board keeps saying "The only way is up now!"
You've all said this at $4, $3, $2, and now $1.
Seriously - you are dead wrong to say the only way is up.
Oh it is? Geesh - another person making completely moronic predictions with half-cited data "most fund managers" etc.
This is a garbage post and just poor cheerleading.
At least be honest - this stock is not moving big time unless Q4 earnings reverse the very drastic downslide in sales from Q3 and/or the FDA gives an update on progress of regulating the indutry.
Almost every sales company starts throwing out large discounts at the end of the year to get rid of inventory and take advantage of everyone’s loose wallets.
What broke or are you using in which country are you in and where are you trying to buy? Costco
What startup was he at? Sorry for all the questions - I'm just very busy today and trying to learn more about this guy and just how excited we should be or not. I don't have time to look it up myself.
Trying to determine if he's an actual rock star or one of countless middle-upper middle management that float around the corporate world that we shouldn't get too excited about.
A lot of people work at billion dollar companies at some point in their careers - doesn't mean they know what they are doing.
Just trying to determine if we should be excited or not.
And FYI - Dr.'s, academics have awful track records as operations managers - these are 2 wildly different skillsets and areas.
I have had a lot of experience and exposure to operations management in the corporate world because I used to be a guy they'd call to come fix things that their own operations managers screwed up or just weren't good at.
What company is he coming from? And did he actually LEAVE that company to go to CVSI or was he unemployed looking for his next gig. This matters a lot in terms of where he is coming from.
Trying to analyze this stock on technical charts is a fool's errand and laughable. It's a penny stock that's seen an 80% decline, on the OTC, in an ambiguously regulated industry, with sales dropping last quarter to below even when there was no federal law, with the governing body continually dragging everything out.
Look people - you either are prepared to lose all your money here but you are hoping that CVSI's sales team has what it takes to boost sales back up again over the next few quarters.
If CVSI's sales team does not get aggressive and turn around the slump in sales in the next few quarters - other brands will take over at lower price points.
The industry will catch up with quality control and there will be 10-30 brands that all have sound quality control.
If you are a trader trying to time this stock - good luck - you may get filthy rich off it.
For me - I'm long and holding for at least another year.
But all the variables involved with this company and industry...there is no way you can base trading off of technical charts. It's a joke.
CV Sciences hit with class action lawsuit:
So looks like CV Sciences were hit with the same thing CWEB was but it went under-reported:
https://flgovernmentaffairs.com/tag/cv-sciences/
Colette v. CV Sciences, Inc., alleging that the manufacturers’ CBD products were mislabeled as dietary supplements.
Agreed - time for a bigger shot to come in. Joe has been fine and the deals inked are great. But this is now hand to hand combat - the easy parts are over.
Fighting competitors for each single sale doesn't feel like CVSI management's style. We need warriors leading CVSI.
Joe has been good for the brand, says the right things etc. But we need grit now.
News: Big publisher running Canopy's US CBD line:
Quartz just picked this up 30 mins ago even though it did come out I think yesterday in smaller publications:
Canopy, the biggest player in Canadian cannabis, is finally entering the US
https://qz.com/1762699/canadian-cannabis-brand-canopy-is-launching-cbd-in-the-us/?utm_source=google-news
I'm down more $ than any number anyone has posted here of them being down. Largest I've seen posted is someone being down $150,000.
I was up for a bit and now I'm not.
To me, it's a gut check but I can afford the potential loss. I'm holding because I have no other choice at this point. I could sell and salvage some money but still think this is a good company.
But I'm extremely skeptical:
- The consumer marketing of CVSI sucks - they need to hire a pro/VIP level consumer marketer
- Their e-commerce division sucks - they need to get this going ASAP
- They are 'nerding it out' as we like to say - they are so focused on rebuilding brand reputation because the Mona's have an awful reputation that they have been very quiet to rebuild credibility and then will come out the other end with more marketing and more of their 'loud voice.' But they definitely need to get more loud and get out of the trades and get more public. Nerds are good, but continually (not always) get run over in corporate warfare. This is a nerdy group - there's a time for that, but that time is ending soon. This dovetails with consumer marketing, PR, etc. which is different rabbit hole for another time.
One thing I'm not sure of with this company is if they fighters for sales and have grit, or are they going to wither away.
In an exploding industry like this, frankly, it's not that relatively hard to pick up distribution contracts and they've done a good job of that so far.
But now it gets tough. Can they fight for every sale, claw for every sale, box out competition - now that the easy parts are over?
I'm not so sure they have the grit to survive if the FDA takes too long with their interim or full guidelines.
Frankly, they seem soft - which is where my above skepticism comes from. They check all the boxes but they were tested in Q3 and they lost.
Next quarter (Q4) will tell us if they are or not.
If they underperform in Q4, with holidays, with their 'brand reputation' and 'brand awareness,' with all their conferences, and being in as many stores as they are, they are soft and I'll probably get out.
If they get ahead of their estimated sales, then they have some grit.
Grit is what I'm looking for.
I'm also potentially looking to buy more once it reaches bottom. I'm looking for $0.50.
On top of it all though, I'm looking for a buyout at this point - but that seems unlikely to me at this moment.
My gut says it's going to go down to $0.50-$0.75 - there's nothing stopping it from doing so. The only thing that is going to affect this stock are ONLY FDA guidelines (interim or full) and Q4 earnings which are 2 months away from being reported.
Someone on this board has been saying it's going down to $0.50 for about 3 months now - they were so right.