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I held CVSI for about a year or so and cut bait around $0.75 - $0.55.
I was an ardent defender of the company on this board - go search for my posts.
In retrospect, holding my shares even that long was an uninformed, illogical move.
I took what was left of my CVSI money and have since quadrupled it back to breakeven of what I originally had in CVSI. (It was a healthy size of my overall portfolio.)
I lost about $110,000 here with this company. Call me naive.
I see all the same names here are still posting, still making the same exact arguments.
It is only a matter of time before this company folds or sells for pennies on the dollar.
Since CVSI I've learned to read financial statements, analyze industries, trends and historical emerging industries maturation with regulatory agencies.
This loss here was a big education for me.
As a general rule, any serious investor or trader doesn't touch pink sheets and I never will again. I've had probably 100 people laugh at me when I told them I lost a lot of money on the pink sheets.
I do wish all of you would just sell all your shares and save whatever money you have left in here because it will be worth 0 nothing soon enough, in my opinion. It already basically is.
I haven't checked this board for about a year or so. Shocked to read all the same stuff here, from all the same people.
"May" - exactly.
If it doesn't really work - which frankly, I'm very skeptical of it working - it's going to flop.
The response is not surprising, particularly because the next earnings for Q1, Q2 and probably Q3 are going to be absolutely awful and the valuation is going to come under more scrutiny.
Friday and today, in my opinion - absolutely. But do your own due diligence. I've been in this stock for 2 years, in and out in a smaller position with a core long position. This feels textbook short squeeze given what I've seen over the last 2 years.
CVSI has nothing to offer CWEB. In my opinion, CVSI is a typical consumer sales company currently in a classic case study downward death spiral. Again, in my opinion, this is a textbook death of a consumer sales company, or one that will have to raise money.
What a rational, investor focused post lol. Yes, because a one day rapid spike says so much for the short, medium and long-term outlook. How much are you down?
Your assuredness is extremely misguided. This company is in a text book case of terminal downward sales spiral. They most likely aren't going to be able to pull out of it themselves.
A $30-$50 million market cap for this company, in these times, with almost assuredly bad Q1 and Q2 coming up - is a wait and see space. If they have another bad Q, which let's face it, with coronavirus, is likely, the market cap will rightfully plunge further.
And the FDA is probably not coming out with anything soon - they have their hands full. Hemp and CBD is very likely no longer a priority for them.
I'll admit it I-Glow - you were right. I didn't sell as high as you did. I sold much lower, but still got out well before this ugly bottom - which in my opinion will get uglier over the next few months.
I realized what you realized about CVSI, just later on.
Unfortunately, there are people on here who probably should have sold and are dealing with material financial loss that can impact their day to day lives. And that is what is unfortunate - hate to see people over leverage themselves in the market.
They are in a typical sales company downward spiral. Almost impossible to pull out of it themselves. They will need help.
And guess what - stores are closing down - which is where they typically sell their more popular items.
As a result of stores shutting down, Q1 will be bad bad bad for them.
Only a matter of time before they have to raise money.
I feel for you all who didn't get out and are still in this with significant portions of your net worth.
A bad situation.
It is, without a doubt, by any professional standard and precedence, absurd to announce a delay at the exact moment you are supposed to be reporting.
Amazing idea - and the sad thing is, you are right!
If they miss - he gets one more quarter, that's it IMO. If they can't even forecast extremely safely and then still miss - forget it.
They are pretty responsive, in my experience.
Lol - hardly. Ah yes, based on what?
In my opinion, there's a more than likely chance they miss on Q4 and on the year for earnings. This thing will go down to $0.40 like some have been claiming for a year. I'm more inclined to believe them at this point since ya know, almost all indicators point downward for financial performance and industry performance. Not to mention that coronavirus is going to stick around throughout the rest of the year, giving the markets tremors here and there.
When FDA gets closer to releasing guidelines, that's when the CBD industry will reverse this downward trend. And that's when I'll get back into this.
"Can help" not proof that it "does help" - lol - spoken like someone who has no proof of anything.
Offer proof of this statement please: "See past coronavirus, which CBD can most likely treat."
I highly doubt there is any proof, whatsoever, indicating CBD can treat coronavirus.
So far, Coronavirus has an exponentially higher ratio of infected to deaths. Your logic makes no sense.
I've now sold 90% of my position over the past 2 weeks; at a big loss. It's getting really enticing to jump back in at these levels.
However, I'm waiting because in my personal opinion:
- Today's drop is just part an overall market reaction
- I'm waiting to see how coronavirus keeps affecting the SP - it'll probably drift lower
- I think they are going to miss on Q4 earnings which is going to push it lower
- I think most people interested in the CBD space are in wait and see mode
There is a LOT of opportunity to make a LOT of money in this industry from these levels, once a regulatory pathway starts taking shape.
Not only in CVSI, but other brands that already exist and that are going to jump into the space.
Government officials say a lot of things, every day. Until there is concrete action, who cares what they say.
Remember that legislative bill that was going to save the entire CBD industry? Crickets now.
The infected to death ratio for coronavirus is exponentially larger than the flu infected to death ratio.
That's why everyone is so concerned about coronavirus as it rapidly spreads throughout the world - and they should be. This is a serious thing.
This is new, and rapidly spreading much faster than other new viruses that pop up from time to time.
That ad must be doing really well b/c you'd never keep it running if it wasn't. And his fans are loyal. Very smart to advertise there.
I've sold 80% of my position over the past 2 weeks because I personally don't think they will meet their expectations for Q4. I'll buy back in once it hits a new bottom. If they do meet them and it starts going back up, I'll buy on the way up.
Too many other places to make money in this market right now to keep dead money sitting in CVSI.
That bill is not going anywhere, anytime soon.
A $90MM+/- valuation for a relatively typical business model consumer product company, on the OTC, that may do $55MM in GROSS sales this year, on what could be a very clear downward sales trajectory (let's see Q4), with no real regulatory clarity in sight - is a fair valuation.
Everyone is waiting on what Q4 will do. I've sold 40% of my shares and am waiting for Q4. If it goes down, I'll wait for the new bottom and may consider buying back in, lower. Or I may just sell what's remaining and move on.
Their diligence in supply chain isn't worth that much when big pharma can easily re-create it. It's not rocket science, it's chemistry, and there are companies much better at chemistry and supply chains than CVSI waiting to enter the space.
I give CVSI credit for digging in and building what they've built - but it's not nearly as special as some think.
If Q4 misses low, the valuation should rightfully move downward.
If you're big pharma - you're just waiting for regulatory clarity, then billions will enter the market and CVSI's retail head start will not be nearly as valuable as it is now.
I hate to say it, as I have a lot of shares, but if Q4 misses, this story is going to get ugly. And it's due to the crap the FDA is pulling.
These same analysts didn't see the housing crisis either. Analysts are analysts, and not CEOs, for a reason. Half the time they are just guessing. Have any of you ever met analysts? Half are older people who never made it up the food chain - so they weren't good enough, and half are entry level, under 32.
And the firm you cite, IS A CANNABIS MARKET RESEARCH COMPANY selling subscriptions and an analyst product! LOL! Seriously - come on - this is the least serious, objective source out there.
If I knew any of you personally I'd bet you that CBD will not be that big of a market by 2024.
It'll be big if there are no adverse health affects and FDA actually clears this thing in the next 2 years; but not that big, and they are half completely guessing.
NDA's don't matter once you go to court. Court cases are public info and then a reporter will get a 'leak' and then both sides start leaking. But I'm getting off topic. Have a nice night everyone.
Most non-competes are unenforceable in actual applicable and actionable law.
Companies know this so they try to find a middle ground at 3mo-2yr depending on the seniority.
However, I've had a few larger law firms tell me it's not even worth it to have them anymore b/c if challenged, they most likely won't hold up in court; plus other considerations below.
Of course, most still include them to instill fear or take advantage of the ignorance of the common worker.
Senior leaders generally sign them anyway b/c their exit packages are so good it doesn't matter. And any savvy senior leader knows that if you really want to challenge the non-compete, you could win. But then is it really worth the time, money and press to challenge it?
Most companies won't challenge them either, for the same reasons; bad press, bad publicity, bad image.
As for actual law, non-competes are outdated, but it's all the other factors that still make them relevant.
Update. In 2 months, the CVSI topicals in a Harris Teeter I visit while on work trips, have sold 3 units. Workers in the store say no one buys it, nor any of the CBD in any regular fashion.
With this slow movement in this store expensive Virginia suburb, I don't see how Q4 looks good. And as for Q1 - watch out.
Literally the same units have been sitting for 2 months. No one wants topicals.
I do think once ingestibles get on the shelves they will at least move a little.
Some negative press needs to start coming out about McConnell and how he's abandoned the hemp/CBD industry by letting banking act, other stuff linger. That'll get his attention.
I think with coronavirus spreading, there are many things that this subcommittee needs to discuss before it gets to CBD.
I've been day trading the past few days with a smaller position outside of my large long position. Mainly to just have a little fun.
The activity is crazy. I don't do day trading and am not 'in the know' of day traders, but there is definitely manipulation going on. Or rather, a lot of day trading?
Blocks of tens of thousands of shares at 1/100 and 1/1000 prices on really low volume.
If you can't beat them, join them?
ALERT: CVSI on Fox Business today - here's the video:
https://www.facebook.com/CVSciences/videos/493833847984449/
Communication is lacking somewhat, yes.
However, he does need to go to these investor conferences to build name brand, relationships, commonalities and exposure among that industry. The public won't hear a lot about them but he definitely should be going.
And those aforementioned elements take years to build up.
Yea wow, look at that amazing 6 month chart below lol.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/vfrm/
Unfortunately, if your timetable turns out to be right, the market will be flooded with well financed competitors, not the low brow competitors we face today.
Let's hope for legislation in the next Q or 2 otherwise I don't see how CVSI sales turn around and your timetable is probably correct.
This could turn into a downward sales death spiral for CVSI and they could be one people talk about in case studies.
If Q4 is bad, this could be textbook death spiral.
If they miss on Q4, it'll drop a lot. That'll be two bad quarters with a strong downward sales trend. The death spiral for a company like this.
But I bought a small chunk more today. Couldn't help myself.
They do create some of those fruits in labs and also, more popular only at the moment, hybrid growing. And we will have to create more food in labs if the human race wants to avoid mass starvation as the population grows over the next 50 years.
I'm not saying what you personally should or shouldn't buy and I'm not really interested in your personal preference (not snark, just fact since my original post had nothing to do with personal preferences).
I'm explaining why it potentially makes business sense - since someone was wondering why they'd do it.
It would be smart to create something as controlled as possible on their part (ie. in a lab) - would save so much time, energy and resources in their supply chain - not to mention relative guaranteed quality and consistency.
It may cost more up front, but will save them tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, long-term.
They could also patent it and license it.
Great investment if they can pull it off.
There are so many variables in each plant and if you're thinking as large as the big pharma companies do, you're looking at how to get 95% consistency at a global scale with the least amount of friction.
If you have the R&D budget, it makes total sense to try to create your own variation that is 95% consistent in a lab, than dealing with countless farmers, weather patterns, green houses, seasonal changes etc.
It's a huge efficiency and would be worth the payoff if they can get it right.
"legal responsibility" and the government? LOL!
I can tell you, from extensive experience with DC, that those two words do not go together.
Curious about a CVSI and CWEB merger.
They are both going to languish for the next 1.5-2 years (unless legislation (iffy), b/c FDA is a long ways off) and there is considerable strength in scale in this current environment.
It could be argued that valuations are a bit out of whack for both, but still, a merger on paper is intriguing.
Think of the various verticals the combined scale would help them accelerate towards.
And imagine all the synergies.