You're right on those contributing factors.
I'm mainly talking about new money coming in. It'd be crazy to invest in this company right now given how Q4 may end up.
For example, I'm ready to buy more shares, but I want to see what Q4 does first. Can management execute now that the 2019 national buzz is over? I want to see sales - that's the only thing that matters.
My plan has been to hold for 2 years.
But if Q4 tanks and there are signs of their financial viability cracking (their profit isn't a large amount for how much they've been building and relatively in this industry) - I may consider just cutting bait and entering the sector a little bit later again as the landscape takes shape.
If Q4 tanks, there will be no new money coming in until the next Q either. Especially on OTC.
And there's no way a 2-3x valuation would happen with continually declining sales. At that point the only thing justifying a larger valuation would be the HOPE of legislation.
And hoping on legislation and politicians is a fools errand. We've already seen the farm bill disaster and that was supposed to lift the entire industry sky high.
There's a lot of money to be made here trading. But I'm an investor, a patient one. But if Q4 misses, it's a big management problem and you can't wait those problems out.
We'll see.
I want the best but I think what Dowling meant by "choppy" is that they just don't know how to navigate the competitive landscape and they are simply waiting on legislation or the FDA to save the company.
That's not a strategy.
This company is in the sales game. Get sales or you lose.
Here's hoping to a surprising Q4 beat but I'm skeptical.
