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Tommy, lets try these numbers. Let's say Bellissima sells 39,000 cases per quarter (3,000 cases per week times 13 weeks). I'm not sure if Rich can fill that many orders per quarter, I think he said something about being able to supply 30,000 cases per quarter, but hey, lets go with it. I've seen people post that a case works out to $54 in revenue ,which makes sense ($60 per case less CB's 10% cut). $10/bottle also makes sense as retailers are selling for 18.99 and you have the retailer and the distributor both making money.
39,000 cases/qtr X $54/case = $1.944MM of revs/quarter. Multiply by 4 quarters and you are at $7.776MM annually. For valuation purposes, use a 5X sales multiple (higher than alcoholic beverage industry average). This puts a value on Bellissima (not ICNB) of $38.8MM. To make the math easy, let's give the brand an extra 20%+ kicker (call it a buyout premium) and make it a $50MM valuation.
As I explained last night, each $100MM of valuation is worth 2 cents per share to the ICNB investor. Using this valuation, ICNB stock would be worth a penny at 3,000 cases per week. Considering where sales are today, much lower than 39,000 cases per quarter, sub-penny is probably the right place for this stock to be trading.
Air, I don't know what led to the large Clooney buyout. What I do know is BREW has a market cap of $370'ish MM and has $200MM in sales. Bellissima is a LONG ways from those kinds of sales numbers. Skinny Girl was very popular back in the day and it sold for $120MM. That would equate to a 2.2 cent per share buyout and could take a couple years for Bellissima to get that. ICNB is a lot of risk to hold to double your money buying at a penny or maybe just breaking even or still losing money for those that bought at 2 or 3 cents.
You are exactly right Fekets10, longs must be patient. Sooner or later someone will buy up Bellissima. If long investors are patient, they can make money here. With what we know now, each $100MM of buyout price equals 2 cents per share for ICNB. If Bellissima was bought tonight for $100MM, ICNB shareholders should each receive 2 cents per share.
The HUGE key here is if Rich can grow the company without needing to raise capital. If he needs capital, he will likely issue shares and that 2 cents per share for each $100MM of buyout price starts dropping. If Rich has to issue shares, each share issued is equal to 1.5 to 2 shares being issued because of the way the Preferred D's convert. Dilution is the worst thing that can happen here as it will spiral in a hurry because of the multiplier effect caused by the Preferred D's.
Who can tell me the value of Bellissima at .10 - .15 ICNB share price? Let's start with the current share count of 917MM and add in an additional 500MM coming for the debt conversion (assuming 113MM shares already issued). We now have 1.417B shares outstanding. Next, lets factor in the preferred D's. Depending on how you read the release that will either increase the OS by 51% or just over 100%. This puts us somewhere between 2.2B and 2.8B shares outstanding. This assumes Rich doesn't need to raise additional capital and sell additional shares to raise that capital. Remember, ICNB only owns 51% of Bellissima. So, if we say we end up with 2.5B shares outstanding, each with a value of 10 cents per share, that is a value of 250MM on ICNB. Next double that amount for the 51% ownership and you have a value on Bellissima of $500MM.
As a comparison in the beverage industry, take a look at BREW. It has a market cap of $347MM and revenues of $200MM. Sure, it isn't experiencing the growth of Bellissima and has some debt but this gives you an idea that ICNB and Bellissima have a LONG way to go to see 10 cents per share. Hey, I hope it gets there but being there in 6 months as multiple posters have predicted is a pipe dream.
Isn't there a limit on how much they can dump daily? 10% of daily volume? BMIC dumping seems excessive.
BMIC, dumping again. Wish I knew who BMIC was dumping shares for. They have to be somewhere in the 6-10MM share range this week, and that's just the trades I have seen. BMIC shows up and the share price can go nowhere. Seems like an endless supply of shares they have to dump.
No trades in the last 90 minutes. Snooze fest today.
Penny, it was a screw up by the TA. I saw the email from the TA that said shares had dropped and a 2nd that they confirmed that. The TA then came back and apologized and said shares were unchanged at 917MM. The poster that said shares dropped yesterday was just passing on info from the TA, not trying to deceive anyone.
BMIC just disappeared with the .0105 ask. Maybe we can move higher now. Hopefully they have dumped whatever they were trying to dump. Hopefully NITE isn't doing the same thing showing 10K shares.
Snowbird Publix, during the winter, ever been in one? I've never seen so many "mature" people buying wine in my life. Publix would be a HUGE score. Hope Rich gets that deal done soon.
It seems Target approved nationally. Several of us have checked with local stores and it is in their system to order. Target Corporate hasn't added it to their wine planogram or ordered an end cap for every store, but it does appear they are allowing stores to order on an individual basis right now. If corporate sees the product moving in stores that order it in, hopefully that leads to a "corporate initiative" to make sure it is in all stores that sell wine.
Here are the Target DPCI's I got from my local store. Go in and ask your store to order.
213-00-1691
213-00-1692
213-00-1693
4MM shares chasing the bid all day, price held up quite well considering. The buyers that are accumulating are smart, no need to chase when the ask will come to you. I picked up 235K shares today and had the big seller hit my bid each time.
Don't forget Publix and their 1,200 stores. That has to be getting close.
Yes, Target Corporate approved. My local store manager said the DPCI's come from corporate and are hard to get approved. He said it showed they could order it if one of the distributors they work with carry it.
Visit Target and tell them to order these Target DPCI's. I just checked with my local Target and all 3 Bellissima's are approved at corporate for stores to order. Here are the numbers the manager gave me:
213-00-1691
213-00-1692
213-00-1693
Let's mobilize ICNB Army. We can expand this test by asking. My store said they would check with their wine distributors and try to order.
Rich doesn't own the other 49%, or at least he doesn't act like it. He won't answer the question of who owns the other 49%. If he did, I think he would say that. I don't think the other owners want it known who they are.
Canada last steps completed. LCBO will release their decision at the end of July. We will know in a couple weeks.
Brah, your same old song and dance is getting old. Please provide us your proof that Rich is diluting us weekly to run the business. Show us your info that says the increase in OS is Rich issuing shares for operational expenses and not dilution from the debt deal. I'll be patiently waiting.
Bellissima Spirits LLC, so does Stephen Hicks and Henry Sargent own the other 49%? They are listed as inactive managers/officers on the Nevada Secretary of State website. Anyone got the scoop on who owns the 49% of this company not owned by ICNB?
6 bottles per case.
Whip, markets are irrational. My point with Amazon was plugging in rational growth rates in the out years and a rational terminal growth rate, you couldn't get to the current market value. $20MM in 2017, pipe dream. 2018, Maybe???? As your calcs showed, if someone wants to value this at $100MM then buying at $.01 makes a whole lot of sense. If you think this is Skinny Girl or better, this screams BUY, BUY, BUY!!!!!!
Distribution is supposed to be able to handle 30,000 cases monthly and can increase on demand. We shouldn't be having a distribution problem. On the other hand, let's hope demand is exceeding 30,000 cases and we have a distribution problem. =)
Whip, fair enough. I think you make a valid point but I also think your view is a bit short sided. Let's say your $2MM revenue number for 2017 is right on (personally I think it is light). What if 2018 revenues were $20MM, would you still value this at 5X 2017 revs? You have to project based on the future here, its a start-up.
Have you ever tried to value Amazon? I use this as an example because I wrote an academic paper on it several years ago. I really liked the stock and thought it would go higher but it was impossible to value anywhere near then current market values. I used some crazy looking assumptions and still couldn't get there. Sometimes you can't make sense out of the market.
Debtor dilution doesn't matter. We know 600MM shares are coming. Add it in to your pps calc now. What we need to make sure stops is dilution to run the business. That is the dilution you should be focused on, Whip.
Check Binny's website. There are still some stores in stock, but you will also see a lot of Out Of Stock inventories. There were also a lot they don't stock so we need to get it in all BBD's.
Binny's Out of Stock. Anyone in the Chicago area? Looking at Binnys Beverage Depots website, the stores that were stocking are quickly selling out. A lot of stores don't carry it yet. Binny's needs to get back in stock and roll it out to all their stores. Lot of untapped potential there.